Lanning Wang | Searcharxiv

arXiv2026

Exascale Hybrid Numerical-AI Ensembles for Operational Flood-Season Forecasting in East Asia: 15-km Decadal Hindcasts and 1-km High-Resolution Capability

Seasonal forecasting of summer rainfall in East Asia remains a grand challenge, as predictability at 3 to 6 month lead times is constrained by the spring predictability barrier, weak large-scale signals, and localized nonlinear convective extremes. We address this challenge with CAPES, which integrates a kilometer-resolution coupled regional model with atmosphere, land, and ocean components and a data-driven AI seasonal forecasting system. At 15 km resolution, the fused workflow combines 174 numerical members from varying start times, physics schemes, and parameter perturbations with 1,600 AI members generated from initial and physical perturbations. Using the full LineShine system, CAPES completes ten annual 1,774-member hindcasts for 2016 to 2025 within 14.6 hours, improving the mean prediction score from ECMWF's 71.8 to 75.9 and delivering a major gain in operational forecasting capability. The 1-km configuration further enables fine-scale typhoon simulation and establishes the feasibility of kilometer-scale fused ensemble forecasting on a one-week timescale.

cs.CE↗

arXiv2024

Kilometer-Level Coupled Modeling Using 40 Million Cores: An Eight-Year Journey of Model Development

With current and future leading systems adopting heterogeneous architectures, adapting existing models for heterogeneous supercomputers is of urgent need for improving model resolution and reducing modeling uncertainty. This paper presents our three-week effort on porting a complex earth system model, CESM 2.2, to a 40-million-core Sunway supercomputer. Taking a non-intrusive approach that tries to minimizes manual code modifications, our project tries to achieve both improvement of performance and consistency of the model code. By using a hierarchical grid system and an OpenMP-based offloading toolkit, our porting and parallelization effort covers over 80% of the code, and achieves a simulation speed of 340 SDPD (simulated days per day) for 5-km atmosphere, 265 SDPD for 3-km ocean, and 222 SDPD for a coupled model, thus making multi-year or even multi-decadal experiments at such high resolution possible.

cs.DC↗