arXiv subjects

Larissa Serdukova

Publications and source records attributed to Larissa Serdukova.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Geometric early warning indicator from stochastic separatrix structure in a random two-state ecosystem model

Under-ice blooms in the Arctic can develop rapidly under conditions where conventional early warning signals based on critical slowing down fail due to strong noise or limited observational records. We analyze noise-induced transitions in a temperature phytoplankton stochastic differential equation model exhibiting bistability between background and bloom states. The committor function defines a stochastic separatrix as its 1/2-isocommittor, and the normal width of the associated transition layer yields a geometric indicator via arc-length averaging. Under systematic variation of noise intensity, this indicator scales linearly with noise strength, while the logarithm of the mean first passage time follows the Freidlin-Wentzell asymptotic law. Eliminating the noise parameter produces an affine scaling between the logarithmic transition time and the inverse square of the geometric indicator. The relation is robust under variations in discretization, neighborhood definition, and diffusion structure, and holds in the weak noise regime where the transition-layer width scales linearly with noise strength. Unlike variance or lag-one autocorrelation, the geometric indicator remains well defined when rapid transitions preclude reliable time-series estimation. These results provide a geometrically interpretable precursor of bloom onset that may support model-based ecological monitoring in high-variability Arctic systems.

math.DS↗

arXiv2022

Lévy-noise versus Gaussian-noise-induced Transitions in the Ghil-Sellers Energy Balance Model

We study the impact of applying stochastic forcing to the Ghil-Sellers energy balance climate model in the form of a fluctuating solar irradiance. Through numerical simulations, we explore the noise-induced transitions between the competing warm and snowball climate states. We consider multiplicative stochastic forcing driven by Gaussian and $α$-stable Lévy - $α\in(0,2)$ - noise laws, examine the statistics of transition times, and estimate most probable transition paths. While the Gaussian noise case has been carefully studied in a plethora of investigations on metastable systems, much less is known about the Lévy case, especially in the case of high- and infinite-dimensional systems. In the weak noise limit, the expected residence time in each metastable state scales in a fundamentally different way in the Gaussian vs. Lévy noise case with respect to the intensity of the noise. In the former case, the classical Kramers-like exponential law is recovered. In the latter case, power laws are found, with the exponent equal to $-α$, in apparent agreement with rigorous results obtained for additive noise in a related - yet different - reaction-diffusion equation as well as in simpler models. This can be better understood by treating the Lévy noise as a compound Poisson process. The transition paths are studied in a projection of the state space and remarkable differences are observed between the two different types of noise. The snowball-to-warm and the warm-to-snowball most probable transition path cross at the single unstable edge state on the basin boundary. In the case of Lévy noise, the most probable transition paths in the two directions are wholly separated, as transitions apparently take place via the closest basin boundary region to the outgoing attractor. This property can be better elucidated by considering singular perturbations to the solar irradiance.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗

arXiv2020

Post-grazing dynamics of a vibro-impacting energy generator

The motion of a forced vibro-impacting inclined energy harvester is investigated in parameter regimes with asymmetry in the number of impacts on the bottom and top of the device. This motion occurs beyond a grazing bifurcation, at which alternating top and bottom impacts are supplemented by a zero velocity impact with the bottom of the device. For periodic forcing, we obtain semi-analytical expressions for the asymmetric periodic motion with a ratio of 2:1 for the impacts on the device bottom and top, respectively. These expressions are derived via a set of nonlinear maps between different pairs of impacts, combined with impact conditions that provide jump discontinuities in the velocity. Bifurcation diagrams for the analytical solutions are complemented by a linear stability analysis around the 2:1 asymmetric periodic solutions, and are validated numerically. For smaller incline angles, a second grazing bifurcation is numerically detected, leading to a 3:1 asymmetry. For larger incline angles, period doubling bifurcations precede this bifurcation. The converted electrical energy per impact is reduced for the asymmetric motions, and therefore less desirable under this metric.

math.DS↗