arXiv subjects

Larry Wasserman

Publications and source records attributed to Larry Wasserman.

At least 163 records · Page 9Linked to original sources

arXiv2010

Stability of Density-Based Clustering

High density clusters can be characterized by the connected components of a level set $L(λ) = \{x:\ p(x)>λ\}$ of the underlying probability density function $p$ generating the data, at some appropriate level $λ\geq 0$. The complete hierarchical clustering can be characterized by a cluster tree ${\cal T}= \bigcup_λ L(λ)$. In this paper, we study the behavior of a density level set estimate $\widehat L(λ)$ and cluster tree estimate $\widehat{\cal{T}}$ based on a kernel density estimator with kernel bandwidth $h$. We define two notions of instability to measure the variability of $\widehat L(λ)$ and $\widehat{\cal{T}}$ as a function of $h$, and investigate the theoretical properties of these instability measures.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2010

Generalized density clustering

We study generalized density-based clustering in which sharply defined clusters such as clusters on lower-dimensional manifolds are allowed. We show that accurate clustering is possible even in high dimensions. We propose two data-based methods for choosing the bandwidth and we study the stability properties of density clusters. We show that a simple graph-based algorithm successfully approximates the high density clusters.

math.ST↗

arXiv2010

Genome-Wide Significance Levels and Weighted Hypothesis Testing

Genetic investigations often involve the testing of vast numbers of related hypotheses simultaneously. To control the overall error rate, a substantial penalty is required, making it difficult to detect signals of moderate strength. To improve the power in this setting, a number of authors have considered using weighted $p$-values, with the motivation often based upon the scientific plausibility of the hypotheses. We review this literature, derive optimal weights and show that the power is remarkably robust to misspecification of these weights. We consider two methods for choosing weights in practice. The first, external weighting, is based on prior information. The second, estimated weighting, uses the data to choose weights.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2010

Forest Density Estimation

We study graph estimation and density estimation in high dimensions, using a family of density estimators based on forest structured undirected graphical models. For density estimation, we do not assume the true distribution corresponds to a forest; rather, we form kernel density estimates of the bivariate and univariate marginals, and apply Kruskal's algorithm to estimate the optimal forest on held out data. We prove an oracle inequality on the excess risk of the resulting estimator relative to the risk of the best forest. For graph estimation, we consider the problem of estimating forests with restricted tree sizes. We prove that finding a maximum weight spanning forest with restricted tree size is NP-hard, and develop an approximation algorithm for this problem. Viewing the tree size as a complexity parameter, we then select a forest using data splitting, and prove bounds on excess risk and structure selection consistency of the procedure. Experiments with simulated data and microarray data indicate that the methods are a practical alternative to Gaussian graphical models.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2010

Union Support Recovery in Multi-task Learning

We sharply characterize the performance of different penalization schemes for the problem of selecting the relevant variables in the multi-task setting. Previous work focuses on the regression problem where conditions on the design matrix complicate the analysis. A clearer and simpler picture emerges by studying the Normal means model. This model, often used in the field of statistics, is a simplified model that provides a laboratory for studying complex procedures.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2010

Graph-Valued Regression

Undirected graphical models encode in a graph $G$ the dependency structure of a random vector $Y$. In many applications, it is of interest to model $Y$ given another random vector $X$ as input. We refer to the problem of estimating the graph $G(x)$ of $Y$ conditioned on $X=x$ as ``graph-valued regression.'' In this paper, we propose a semiparametric method for estimating $G(x)$ that builds a tree on the $X$ space just as in CART (classification and regression trees), but at each leaf of the tree estimates a graph. We call the method ``Graph-optimized CART,'' or Go-CART. We study the theoretical properties of Go-CART using dyadic partitioning trees, establishing oracle inequalities on risk minimization and tree partition consistency. We also demonstrate the application of Go-CART to a meteorological dataset, showing how graph-valued regression can provide a useful tool for analyzing complex data.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2010

Stability Approach to Regularization Selection (StARS) for High Dimensional Graphical Models

A challenging problem in estimating high-dimensional graphical models is to choose the regularization parameter in a data-dependent way. The standard techniques include $K$-fold cross-validation ($K$-CV), Akaike information criterion (AIC), and Bayesian information criterion (BIC). Though these methods work well for low-dimensional problems, they are not suitable in high dimensional settings. In this paper, we present StARS: a new stability-based method for choosing the regularization parameter in high dimensional inference for undirected graphs. The method has a clear interpretation: we use the least amount of regularization that simultaneously makes a graph sparse and replicable under random sampling. This interpretation requires essentially no conditions. Under mild conditions, we show that StARS is partially sparsistent in terms of graph estimation: i.e. with high probability, all the true edges will be included in the selected model even when the graph size diverges with the sample size. Empirically, the performance of StARS is compared with the state-of-the-art model selection procedures, including $K$-CV, AIC, and BIC, on both synthetic data and a real microarray dataset. StARS outperforms all these competing procedures.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2010

Unbiased Inclination Distributions for Objects in the Kuiper Belt

Using data from the Deep Ecliptic Survey (DES), we investigate the inclination distributions of objects in the Kuiper Belt. We present a derivation for observational bias removal and use this procedure to generate unbiased inclination distributions for Kuiper Belt objects (KBOs) of different DES dynamical classes, with respect to the Kuiper Belt Plane. Consistent with previous results, we find that the inclination distribution for all DES KBOs is well fit by the sum of two Gaussians, or a Gaussian plus a generalized Lorentzian, multiplied by sin i. Approximately 80% of KBOs are in the high-inclination grouping. We find that Classical object inclinations are well fit by sin i multiplied by the sum of two Gaussians, with roughly even distribution between Gaussians of widths 2.0 -0.5/+0.6 degrees and 8.1 -2.1/+2.6 degrees. Objects in different resonances exhibit different inclination distributions. The inclinations of Scattered objects are best matched by sin i multiplied by a single Gaussian that is centered at 19.1 -3.6/+3.9 degrees with a width of 6.9 -2.7/+4.1 degrees. Centaur inclinations peak just below 20 degrees, with one exceptionally high-inclination object near 80 degrees. The currently observed inclination distribution of the Centaurs is not dissimilar to that of the Scattered Extended KBOs and Jupiter-family comets, but is significantly different from the Classical and Resonant KBOs. While the sample sizes of some dynamical classes are still small, these results should begin to serve as a critical diagnostic for models of Solar System evolution.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2009

Revisiting Marginal Regression

The lasso has become an important practical tool for high dimensional regression as well as the object of intense theoretical investigation. But despite the availability of efficient algorithms, the lasso remains computationally demanding in regression problems where the number of variables vastly exceeds the number of data points. A much older method, marginal regression, largely displaced by the lasso, offers a promising alternative in this case. Computation for marginal regression is practical even when the dimension is very high. In this paper, we study the relative performance of the lasso and marginal regression for regression problems in three different regimes: (a) exact reconstruction in the noise-free and noisy cases when design and coefficients are fixed, (b) exact reconstruction in the noise-free case when the design is fixed but the coefficients are random, and (c) reconstruction in the noisy case where performance is measured by the number of coefficients whose sign is incorrect. In the first regime, we compare the conditions for exact reconstruction of the two procedures, find examples where each procedure succeeds while the other fails, and characterize the advantages and disadvantages of each. In the second regime, we derive conditions under which marginal regression will provide exact reconstruction with high probability. And in the third regime, we derive rates of convergence for the procedures and offer a new partitioning of the ``phase diagram,'' that shows when exact or Hamming reconstruction is effective.

math.ST↗

arXiv2009

A statistical framework for differential privacy

One goal of statistical privacy research is to construct a data release mechanism that protects individual privacy while preserving information content. An example is a {\em random mechanism} that takes an input database $X$ and outputs a random database $Z$ according to a distribution $Q_n(\cdot|X)$. {\em Differential privacy} is a particular privacy requirement developed by computer scientists in which $Q_n(\cdot |X)$ is required to be insensitive to changes in one data point in $X$. This makes it difficult to infer from $Z$ whether a given individual is in the original database $X$. We consider differential privacy from a statistical perspective. We consider several data release mechanisms that satisfy the differential privacy requirement. We show that it is useful to compare these schemes by computing the rate of convergence of distributions and densities constructed from the released data. We study a general privacy method, called the exponential mechanism, introduced by McSherry and Talwar (2007). We show that the accuracy of this method is intimately linked to the rate at which the probability that the empirical distribution concentrates in a small ball around the true distribution.

math.ST↗

arXiv2009

On the path density of a gradient field

We consider the problem of reliably finding filaments in point clouds. Realistic data sets often have numerous filaments of various sizes and shapes. Statistical techniques exist for finding one (or a few) filaments but these methods do not handle noisy data sets with many filaments. Other methods can be found in the astronomy literature but they do not have rigorous statistical guarantees. We propose the following method. Starting at each data point we construct the steepest ascent path along a kernel density estimator. We locate filaments by finding regions where these paths are highly concentrated. Formally, we define the density of these paths and we construct a consistent estimator of this path density.

math.ST↗

arXiv2009

High-dimensional variable selection

This paper explores the following question: what kind of statistical guarantees can be given when doing variable selection in high-dimensional models? In particular, we look at the error rates and power of some multi-stage regression methods. In the first stage we fit a set of candidate models. In the second stage we select one model by cross-validation. In the third stage we use hypothesis testing to eliminate some variables. We refer to the first two stages as "screening" and the last stage as "cleaning." We consider three screening methods: the lasso, marginal regression, and forward stepwise regression. Our method gives consistent variable selection under certain conditions.

math.ST↗

arXiv2009

Inference for the dark energy equation of state using Type IA supernova data

The surprising discovery of an accelerating universe led cosmologists to posit the existence of "dark energy"--a mysterious energy field that permeates the universe. Understanding dark energy has become the central problem of modern cosmology. After describing the scientific background in depth, we formulate the task as a nonlinear inverse problem that expresses the comoving distance function in terms of the dark-energy equation of state. We present two classes of methods for making sharp statistical inferences about the equation of state from observations of Type Ia Supernovae (SNe). First, we derive a technique for testing hypotheses about the equation of state that requires no assumptions about its form and can distinguish among competing theories. Second, we present a framework for computing parametric and nonparametric estimators of the equation of state, with an associated assessment of uncertainty. Using our approach, we evaluate the strength of statistical evidence for various competing models of dark energy. Consistent with current studies, we find that with the available Type Ia SNe data, it is not possible to distinguish statistically among popular dark-energy models, and that, in particular, there is no support in the data for rejecting a cosmological constant. With much more supernova data likely to be available in coming years (e.g., from the DOE/NASA Joint Dark Energy Mission), we address the more interesting question of whether future data sets will have sufficient resolution to distinguish among competing theories.

astro-ph↗

arXiv2009

The Nonparanormal: Semiparametric Estimation of High Dimensional Undirected Graphs

Recent methods for estimating sparse undirected graphs for real-valued data in high dimensional problems rely heavily on the assumption of normality. We show how to use a semiparametric Gaussian copula--or "nonparanormal"--for high dimensional inference. Just as additive models extend linear models by replacing linear functions with a set of one-dimensional smooth functions, the nonparanormal extends the normal by transforming the variables by smooth functions. We derive a method for estimating the nonparanormal, study the method's theoretical properties, and show that it works well in many examples.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2009

Differential Privacy with Compression

This work studies formal utility and privacy guarantees for a simple multiplicative database transformation, where the data are compressed by a random linear or affine transformation, reducing the number of data records substantially, while preserving the number of original input variables. We provide an analysis framework inspired by a recent concept known as differential privacy (Dwork 06). Our goal is to show that, despite the general difficulty of achieving the differential privacy guarantee, it is possible to publish synthetic data that are useful for a number of common statistical learning applications. This includes high dimensional sparse regression (Zhou et al. 07), principal component analysis (PCA), and other statistical measures (Liu et al. 06) based on the covariance of the initial data.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2008

Spectral Connectivity Analysis

Spectral kernel methods are techniques for transforming data into a coordinate system that efficiently reveals the geometric structure - in particular, the "connectivity" - of the data. These methods depend on certain tuning parameters. We analyze the dependence of the method on these tuning parameters. We focus on one particular technique - diffusion maps - but our analysis can be used for other methods as well. We identify the population quantities implicitly being estimated, we explain how these methods relate to classical kernel smoothing and we define an appropriate risk function for analyzing the estimators. We also show that, in some cases, fast rates of convergence are possible even in high dimensions.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2008

Revealing components of the galaxy population through nonparametric techniques

The distributions of galaxy properties vary with environment, and are often multimodal, suggesting that the galaxy population may be a combination of multiple components. The behaviour of these components versus environment holds details about the processes of galaxy development. To release this information we apply a novel, nonparametric statistical technique, identifying four components present in the distribution of galaxy H$α$ emission-line equivalent-widths. We interpret these components as passive, star-forming, and two varieties of active galactic nuclei. Independent of this interpretation, the properties of each component are remarkably constant as a function of environment. Only their relative proportions display substantial variation. The galaxy population thus appears to comprise distinct components which are individually independent of environment, with galaxies rapidly transitioning between components as they move into denser environments.

astro-ph↗

arXiv2008

Treelets--An adaptive multi-scale basis for sparse unordered data

In many modern applications, including analysis of gene expression and text documents, the data are noisy, high-dimensional, and unordered--with no particular meaning to the given order of the variables. Yet, successful learning is often possible due to sparsity: the fact that the data are typically redundant with underlying structures that can be represented by only a few features. In this paper we present treelets--a novel construction of multi-scale bases that extends wavelets to nonsmooth signals. The method is fully adaptive, as it returns a hierarchical tree and an orthonormal basis which both reflect the internal structure of the data. Treelets are especially well-suited as a dimensionality reduction and feature selection tool prior to regression and classification, in situations where sample sizes are small and the data are sparse with unknown groupings of correlated or collinear variables. The method is also simple to implement and analyze theoretically. Here we describe a variety of situations where treelets perform better than principal component analysis, as well as some common variable selection and cluster averaging schemes. We illustrate treelets on a blocked covariance model and on several data sets (hyperspectral image data, DNA microarray data, and internet advertisements) with highly complex dependencies between variables.

stat.ME↗