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Lars Hernquist

Publications and source records attributed to Lars Hernquist.

At least 307 records · Page 17Linked to original sources

Baryons in the CosmicWeb of IllustrisTNG - I: Gas in Knots, Filaments, Sheets and Voids

We analyze the IllustrisTNG simulations to study the mass, volume fraction and phase distribution of gaseous baryons embedded in the knots, filaments, sheets and voids of the Cosmic Web from redshift $z=8$ to redshift $z=0$. We find that filaments host more star-forming gas than knots, and that filaments also have a higher relative mass fraction of gas in this phase than knots. We also show that the cool, diffuse Intergalactic Medium (IGM; $T<10^5 \, {\rm K}$, $ n_{\rm H}<10^{-4}(1+z) \, {\rm cm^{-3}}$) and the Warm-Hot Intergalactic Medium (WHIM; $ 10^5 \, {\rm K} <T<10^7 \, {\rm K}$, $ n_{\rm H} <10^{-4}(1+z)\, {\rm cm^{-3}}$) constitute $\sim 39\%$ and $\sim 46\%$ of the baryons at redshift $z=0$, respectively. Our results indicate that the WHIM may constitute the largest reservoir of {\it missing} baryons at redshift $z=0$. Using our Cosmic Web classification, we predict the WHIM to be the dominant baryon mass contribution in filaments and knots at redshift $z=0$, but not in sheets and voids where the cool, diffuse IGM dominates. We also characterise the evolution of WHIM and IGM from redshift $z=4$ to redshift $z=0$, and find that the mass fraction of WHIM in filaments and knots evolves only by a factor $\sim 2$ from redshift $z=0$ to $z=1$, but declines faster at higher redshift. The WHIM only occupies $4-11\%$ of the volume at redshift $0\leq z \leq 1$. We predict the existence of a significant number of currently undetected OVII and NeIX absorption systems in cosmic filaments which could be detected by future X-ray telescopes like Athena.

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High redshift JWST predictions from IllustrisTNG: Dust modelling and galaxy luminosity functions

The James Webb Space Telescop (JWST) promises to revolutionise our understanding of the early Universe, and contrasting its upcoming observations with predictions of the $Λ$CDM model requires detailed theoretical forecasts. Here, we exploit the large dynamic range of the IllustrisTNG simulation suite, TNG50, TNG100, and TNG300, to derive multi-band galaxy luminosity functions from $z=2$ to $z=10$. We put particular emphasis on the exploration of different dust attenuation models to determine galaxy luminosity functions for the rest-frame ultraviolet (UV), and apparent wide NIRCam bands. Our most detailed dust model is based on continuum Monte Carlo radiative transfer calculations employing observationally calibrated dust properties. This calibration results in constraints on the redshift evolution of the dust attenuation normalisation and dust-to-metal ratios yielding a stronger redshift evolution of the attenuation normalisation compared to most previous theoretical studies. Overall we find good agreement between the rest-frame UV luminosity functions and observational data for all redshifts, also beyond the regimes used for the dust-model calibrations. Furthermore, we also recover the observed high redshift ($z=4-6$) UV luminosity versus stellar mass relation, the H$α$ versus star formation rate relation, and the H$α$ luminosity function at $z=2$. The bright end ($M_{\rm UV}>-19.5$) cumulative galaxy number densities are consistent with observational data. For the F200W NIRCam band, we predict that JWST will detect $\sim 80$ ($\sim 200$) galaxies with a signal-to-noise ratio of $10$ ($\sim 5$) within the NIRCam field of view, $2.2\times2.2 \,{\rm arcmin}^{2}$, for a total exposure time of $10^5{\rm s}$ in the redshift range $z=8 \pm 0.5$. These numbers drop to $\sim 10$ ($\sim 40$) for an exposure time of $10^4{\rm s}$.

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The morphology and kinematics of the gaseous circumgalactic medium of Milky Way mass galaxies -- II. comparison of IllustrisTNG and Illustris simulation results

We have carried out a controlled comparison of the structural and kinematic properties of the circumgalactic medium (CGM) around Milky Way mass galaxies in the Illustris and IllustrisTNG simulations. Very striking differences are found. At z=0, gas column density and temperature profiles at large radii ($\sim 100$ kpc) correlate strongly with disk gas mass fraction in Illustris, but not in TNG. The neutral gas at large radii is preferentially aligned in the plane of the disk in TNG, whereas it is much more isotropic in Illustris. The vertical coherence scale of the rotationally supported gas in the CGM is linked to the gas mass fraction of the galaxy in Illustris, but not in TNG. A tracer particle analysis allows us to show how these differences can be understood as a consequence of the different sub-grid models of feedback in the two simulations. A study of spatially matched galaxies in the two simulations shows that in TNG, feedback by supernovae and AGN helps to create an extended smooth reservoir of hot gas at high redshifts, that then cools to form a thin, rotationally-supported disk at later times. In Illustris, AGN dump heat in the form of hot gas bubbles that push diffuse material at large radii out of the halo. The disk is formed by accretion of colder, recycled material, and this results in more vertically extended gas distributions above and below the Galactic plane. We conclude that variations in the structure of gas around Milky Way mass galaxies are a sensitive probe of feedback physics in simulations and are worthy of more observational consideration in future.

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Automated Distant Galaxy Merger Classifications from Space Telescope Images using the Illustris Simulation

We present image-based evolution of galaxy mergers from the Illustris cosmological simulation at 12 time-steps over 0.5 < z < 5. To do so, we created approximately one million synthetic deep Hubble Space Telescope and James Webb Space Telescope images and measured common morphological indicators. Using the merger tree, we assess methods to observationally select mergers with stellar mass ratios as low as 10:1 completing within +/- 250 Myr of the mock observation. We confirm that common one- or two-dimensional statistics select mergers so defined with low purity and completeness, leading to high statistical errors. As an alternative, we train redshift-dependent random forests (RFs) based on 5-10 inputs. Cross-validation shows the RFs yield superior, yet still imperfect, measurements of the late-stage merger fraction, and they select more mergers in bulge-dominated galaxies. When applied to CANDELS morphology catalogs, the RFs estimate a merger rate increasing to at least z = 3, albeit two times higher than expected by theory. This suggests possible mismatches in the feedback-determined morphologies, but affirms the basic understanding of galaxy merger evolution. The RFs achieve completeness of roughly 70% at 0.5 < z < 3, and purity increasing from 10% at z = 0.5 to 60% at z = 3. At earlier times, the training sets are insufficient, motivating larger simulations and smaller time sampling. By blending large surveys and large simulations, such machine learning techniques offer a promising opportunity to teach us the strengths and weaknesses of inferences about galaxy evolution.

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Imprint of Drivers of Galaxy Formation in the Circumgalactic Medium

The majority of baryons reside beyond the optical extent of a galaxy in the circumgalactic and intergalactic media (CGM/IGM). Gaseous halos are inextricably linked to the appearance of their host galaxies through a complex story of accretion, feedback, and continual recycling. The energetic processes, which define the state of gas in the CGM, are the same ones that 1) regulate stellar growth so that it is not over-efficient, and 2) create the diversity of today's galaxy colors, SFRs, and morphologies spanning Hubble's Tuning Fork Diagram. They work in concert to set the speed of growth on the star-forming Main Sequence, transform a galaxy across the Green Valley, and maintain a galaxy's quenched appearance on the Red Sequence. Most baryons in halos more massive than 10^12 Msolar along with their high-energy physics and dynamics remain invisible because that gas is heated above the UV ionization states. We argue that information on many of the essential drivers of galaxy evolution is primarily contained in this "missing" hot gas phase. Completing the picture of galaxy formation requires uncovering the physical mechanisms behind stellar and SMBH feedback driving mass, metals, and energy into the CGM. By opening galactic hot halos to new wavebands, we not only obtain fossil imprints of >13 Gyrs of evolution, but observe on-going hot-mode accretion, the deposition of superwind outflows into the CGM, and the re-arrangement of baryons by SMBH feedback. A description of the flows of mass, metals, and energy will only be complete by observing the thermodynamic states, chemical compositions, structure, and dynamics of T>=10^6 K halos. These measurements are uniquely possible with a next-generation X-ray observatory if it provides the sensitivity to detect faint CGM emission, spectroscopic power to measure absorption lines and gas motions, and high spatial resolution to resolve structures.

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The ALMA Spectroscopic Survey in the HUDF: the molecular gas content of galaxies and tensions with IllustrisTNG and the Santa Cruz SAM

The ALMA Spectroscopic Survey in the Hubble Ultra Deep Field (ASPECS) provides new constraints for galaxy formation models on the molecular gas properties of galaxies. We compare results from ASPECS to predictions from two cosmological galaxy formation models: the IllustrisTNG hydrodynamical simulations and the Santa Cruz semi-analytic model (SC SAM). We explore several recipes to model the H$_2$ content of galaxies, finding them to be consistent with one another, and take into account the sensitivity limits and survey area of ASPECS. For a canonical CO-to-H$_2$ conversion factor of $α_{\rm CO} = 3.6\,\rm{M}_\odot/(\rm{K}\,\rm{km/s}\,\rm{pc}^{2})$ the results of our work include: (1) the H$_2$ mass of $z>1$ galaxies predicted by the models as a function of their stellar mass is a factor of 2-3 lower than observed; (2) the models do not reproduce the number of H$_2$-rich ($M_{\rm H2} > 3\times 10^{10}\,\rm{M}_\odot$) galaxies observed by ASPECS; (3) the H$_2$ cosmic density evolution predicted by IllustrisTNG (the SC SAM) is in tension (only just agrees) with the observed cosmic density, even after accounting for the ASPECS selection function and field-to-field variance effects. The tension between models and observations at $z>1$ can be alleviated by adopting a CO-to-H$_2$ conversion factor in the range $α_{\rm CO} = 2.0 - 0.8\,\rm{M}_\odot/(\rm{K}\,\rm{km/s}\,\rm{pc}^{2})$. Additional work on constraining the CO-to-H$_2$ conversion factor and CO excitation conditions of galaxies through observations and theory will be necessary to more robustly test the success of galaxy formation models.

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Galaxy Winds in the Age of Hyperdimensional Astrophysics

The past decade began with the first light of ALMA and will end at the start of the new era of hyperdimensional astrophysics. Our community-wide movement toward highly multiwavelength and multidimensional datasets has enabled immense progress in each science frontier identified by the 2010 Decadal Survey, particularly with regard to black hole feedback and the cycle of baryons in galaxies. Facilities like ALMA and the next generation of integral field unit (IFU) spectrographs together enable mapping the physical conditions and kinematics of warm ionized and cold molecular gas in galaxies in unprecedented detail (Fig. 1). JWST's launch at the start of the coming decade will push this capability to the rest-frame UV at redshifts z > 6, mapping the birth of stars in the first galaxies at cosmic dawn. Understanding of their subsequent evolution, however, now awaits an ability to map the processes that transform galaxies directly, rather than the consequences of those processes in isolation. In this paper, we argue that doing so requires an equivalent revolution in spatially resolved spectroscopy for the hot plasma that pervades galaxies, the atmospheres in which they reside, and the winds that are the engines of their evolution.

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The star-formation activity of IllustrisTNG galaxies: main sequence, UVJ diagram, quenched fractions, and systematics

We select galaxies from the IllustrisTNG hydrodynamical simulations ($M_*>10^9~\rm M_\odot$ at $0\le z\le2$) and characterize the shapes and evolutions of their UVJ and star-formation rate -- stellar mass (SFR-$M_*$) diagrams. We quantify the systematic uncertainties related to different criteria to classify star-forming vs. quiescent galaxies, different SFR estimates, and by accounting for the star formation measured within different physical apertures. The TNG model returns the observed features of the UVJ diagram at $z\leq2$, with a clear separation between two classes of galaxies. It also returns a tight star-forming main sequence (MS) for $M_*<10^{10.5}\,\rm M_\odot$ with a $\sim0.3$ dex scatter at $z\sim0$ in our fiducial choices. If a UVJ-based cut is adopted, the TNG MS exhibits a downwardly bending at stellar masses of about $10^{10.5-10.7}~\rm M_\odot$. Moreover, the model predicts that $\sim80\,(50)$ per cent of $10^{10.5-11}~\rm M_\odot$ galaxies at $z=0~(z=2)$ are quiescent and the numbers of quenched galaxies at intermediate redshifts and high masses are in better agreement with observational estimates than previous models. However, shorter SFR-averaging timescales imply higher normalizations and scatter of the MS, while smaller apertures lead to underestimating the galaxy SFRs: overall we estimate the inspected systematic uncertainties to sum up to about $0.2-0.3$ dex in the locus of the MS and to about 15 percentage points in the quenched fractions. While TNG color distributions are clearly bimodal, this is not the case for the SFR logarithmic distributions in bins of stellar mass (SFR$\geq 10^{-3}~\rm M_\odot$yr$^{-1}$). Finally, the slope and $z=0$ normalization of the TNG MS are consistent with observational findings; however, the locus of the TNG MS remains lower by about $0.2-0.5$ dex at $0.75\le z<2$ than the available observational estimates taken at face value.

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Subhalo Demographics in the Illustris Simulation: Effects of Baryons and Halo-to-Halo Variation

We study the abundance of subhaloes in the hydrodynamical cosmological simulation Illustris, which includes both baryons and dark matter in a $Λ$CDM volume 106.5 Mpc a side. We compare Illustris to its dark matter-only (DMO) analogue, Illustris-Dark, and quantify the effects of baryonic processes on the demographics of subhaloes in the host mass range $10^{11}$ to $3 \times 10^{14} \msun$. We focus on both the evolved ($z=0$) subhalo cumulative mass functions (SHMF) and the statistics of subhaloes ever accreted, i.e. infall subhalo mass function. We quantify the variance in subhalo abundance at fixed host mass and investigate the physical reasons responsible for such scatter. We find that in Illustris, baryonic physics impacts both the infall and $z=0$ subhalo abundance by tilting the DMO function and suppressing the abundance of low-mass subhaloes. The breaking of self-similarity in the subhalo abundance at $z=0$ is enhanced by the inclusion of baryonic physics. The non-monotonic alteration of the evolved subhalo abundances can be explained by the modification of the concentration--mass relation of Illustris hosts compared to Illustris-Dark.Interestingly, the baryonic implementation in Illustris does not lead to an increase in the halo-to-halo variation compared to Illustris-Dark. In both cases, the normalized intrinsic scatter today is larger for Milky Way-like haloes than for cluster-sized objects. For Milky Way-like haloes, it increases from about eight per cent at infall to about 25 per cent at the current epoch. In both runs, haloes of fixed mass formed later host more subhaloes than early formers.

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Probing Feedback in Galaxy Formation with Millimeter-wave Observations

Achieving a precise understanding of galaxy formation in a cosmological context is one of the great challenges in theoretical astrophysics, due to the vast range of spatial scales involved in the relevant physical processes. Observations in the millimeter bands, particularly those using the cosmic microwave background (CMB) radiation as a "backlight", provide a unique probe of the thermodynamics of these processes, with the capability to directly measure the density, pressure, and temperature of ionized gas. Moreover, these observations have uniquely high sensitivity into the outskirts of the halos of galaxies and clusters, including systems at high redshift. In the next decade, the combination of large spectroscopic and photometric optical galaxy surveys and wide-field, low-noise CMB surveys will transform our understanding of galaxy formation via these probes.

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On the origin of star-gas counterrotation in low-mass galaxies

Stars in galaxies form from the cold rotationally supported gaseous disks that settle at the center of dark matter halos. In the simplest models, such angular momentum is acquired early on at the time of collapse of the halo and preserved thereafter, implying a well-aligned spin for the stellar and gaseous component. Observations however have shown the presence of gaseous disks in counterrotation with the stars. We use the Illustris numerical simulations to study the origin of such counterrotation in low mass galaxies ($M_\star = 2 \times 10^9$ - $5 \times 10^{10}\; \rm M_\odot$), a sample where mergers have not played a significant role. Only ${\sim}1\%$ of our sample shows a counterrotating gaseous disk at $z=0$. These counterrotating disks arise in galaxies that have had a significant episode of gas removal followed by the acquisition of new gas with misaligned angular momentum. In our simulations, we identify two main channels responsible for the gas loss: a strong feedback burst and gas stripping during a fly-by passage through a more massive group environment. Once settled, counterrotation can be long-lived with several galaxies in our sample displaying misaligned components consistently for more than $2$ Gyr. As a result, no major correlation with the present day environment or structural properties might remain, except for a slight preference for early type morphologies and a lower than average gas content at a given stellar mass.

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Interacting galaxies on FIRE-2: The connection between enhanced star formation and interstellar gas content

We present a comprehensive suite of high-resolution (parsec-scale), idealised (non-cosmological) galaxy merger simulations (24 runs, stellar mass ratio ~2.5:1) to investigate the connection between interaction-induced star formation and the evolution of the interstellar medium (ISM) in various temperature-density regimes. We use the GIZMO code and the second version of the 'Feedback in Realistic Environments' model (FIRE-2), which captures the multi-phase structure of the ISM. Our simulations are designed to represent galaxy mergers in the local Universe. In this work, we focus on the 'galaxy-pair period' between first and second pericentric passage. We split the ISM into four regimes: hot, warm, cool and cold-dense, motivated by the hot, ionised, atomic and molecular gas phases observed in real galaxies. We find that, on average, interactions enhance the star formation rate of the pair (~30%, merger-suite sample average) and elevate their cold-dense gas content (~18%). This is accompanied by a decrease in warm gas (~11%), a negligible change in cool gas (~4% increase), and a substantial increase in hot gas (~400%). The amount of cold-dense gas with densities above 1000 cm^3 (the cold ultra-dense regime) is elevated significantly (~240%), but only accounts for 0.15% (on average) of the cold-dense gas budget.

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The fraction of dark matter within galaxies from the IllustrisTNG simulations

We use the IllustrisTNG (TNG) cosmological simulations to provide theoretical expectations for the dark matter mass fractions (DMFs) and circular velocity profiles of galaxies. TNG predicts flat circular velocity curves for $z = 0$ Milky Way (MW)-like galaxies beyond a few kpc from the galaxy centre, in better agreement with observational constraints than its predecessor, Illustris. TNG also predicts an enhancement of the dark matter mass within the 3D stellar half-mass radius ($r_\mathrm{half}$; $M_\mathrm{200c} = 10^{10}-10^{13}\mathrm{M}_{\odot}$, $z \le2$) compared to its dark matter only and Illustris counterparts. This enhancement leads TNG present-day galaxies to be dominated by dark matter within their inner regions, with $f_\mathrm{DM}(<r_\mathrm{half})\gtrsim0.5$ at all masses and with a minimum for MW-mass galaxies. The 1$σ$ scatter is $\lesssim$ 10~per~cent at all apertures, which is smaller than that inferred by some observational datasets, e.g. 40 per cent from the SLUGGS survey. TNG agrees with the majority of the observationally inferred values for elliptical galaxies once a consistent IMF is adopted (Chabrier) and the DMFs are measured within the same apertures. The DMFs measured within $r_\mathrm{half}$ increase towards lower redshifts: this evolution is dominated by the increase in galaxy size with time. At $z\sim2$, the DMF in disc-like TNG galaxies decreases with increasing galaxy mass, with $f_\mathrm{DM}(<r_\mathrm{half}) \sim 0.10-0.65$ for $10^{10} \lesssim M_{\rm stars}/\mathrm{M}_{\odot} \lesssim 10^{12}$, and are two times higher than if TNG galaxies resided in Navarro-Frenk-White dark matter haloes unaffected by baryonic physics. It remains to be properly assessed whether recent observational estimates of the DMFs at $z\sim2$ rule out the contraction of the dark matter haloes predicted by the TNG model.

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Linking galaxy structural properties and star formation activity to black hole activity with IllustrisTNG

We study the connection between active galactic nuclei (AGN) and their host galaxies through cosmic time in the large-scale cosmological IllustrisTNG simulations. We first compare BH properties, i.e. the hard X-ray BH luminosity function, AGN galaxy occupation fraction, and distribution of Eddington ratios, to available observational constraints. The simulations produce a population of BHs in good agreement with observations, but we note an excess of faint AGN in hard X-ray (L_x ~ 10^{43-44} erg/s), and a lower number of bright AGN (L_x>10^{44} erg/s), a conclusion that varies quantitatively but not qualitatively with BH luminosity estimation method. The lower Eddington ratios of the 10^{9} Msun BHs compared to observations suggest that AGN feedback may be too efficient in this regime. We study galaxy star formation activity and structural properties, and design sample-dependent criteria to identify different galaxy types (star-forming/quiescent, extended/compact) that we apply both to the simulations and observations from the candels fields. We analyze how the simulated and observed galaxies populate the specific star formation rate - stellar mass surface density diagram. A large fraction of the z=0 M_{star}>10^{11} Msun quiescent galaxies first experienced a compaction phase (i.e. reduction of galaxy size) while still forming stars, and then a quenching event. We measure the dependence of AGN fraction on galaxies' locations in this diagram. After correcting the simulations with a redshift and AGN luminosity-dependent model for AGN obscuration, we find good qualitative and quantitative agreement with observations. The AGN fraction is the highest among compact star-forming galaxies (16-20% at z~1.5-2), and the lowest among compact quiescent galaxies (6-10% at z~1.5-2).

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The optical morphologies of galaxies in the IllustrisTNG simulation: a comparison to Pan-STARRS observations

We have generated synthetic images of $\sim$27,000 galaxies from the IllustrisTNG and the original Illustris hydrodynamic cosmological simulations, designed to match Pan-STARRS observations of $\log_{10}(M_{\ast}/{\rm M}_{\odot}) \approx 9.8$-$11.3$ galaxies at $z \approx 0.05$. Most of our synthetic images were created with the SKIRT radiative transfer code, including the effects of dust attenuation and scattering, and performing the radiative transfer directly on the Voronoi mesh used by the simulations themselves. We have analysed both our synthetic and real Pan-STARRS images with the newly developed $\tt{statmorph}$ code, which calculates non-parametric morphological diagnostics -- including the Gini-$M_{20}$ and concentration-asymmetry-smoothness (CAS) statistics -- and performs two-dimensional Sérsic fits. Overall, we find that the optical morphologies of IllustrisTNG galaxies are in good agreement with observations, and represent a substantial improvement compared to the original Illustris simulation. In particular, the locus of the Gini-$M_{20}$ diagram is consistent with that inferred from observations, while the median trends with stellar mass of all the morphological, size and shape parameters considered in this work lie within the $\sim$1$σ$ scatter of the observational trends. However, the IllustrisTNG model has some difficulty with more stringent tests, such as producing a strong morphology-colour relation. This results in a somewhat higher fraction of red discs and blue spheroids compared to observations. Similarly, the morphology-size relation is problematic: while observations show that discs tend to be larger than spheroids at a fixed stellar mass, such a trend is not present in IllustrisTNG.

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A Quantification of the Butterfly Effect in Cosmological Simulations and Implications for Galaxy Scaling Relations

We study the chaotic-like behavior of cosmological simulations by quantifying how minute perturbations grow over time and manifest as macroscopic differences in galaxy properties. When we run pairs of 'shadow' simulations that are identical except for random minute initial displacements to particle positions (e.g. of order 1e-7pc), the results diverge from each other at the individual galaxy level (while the statistical properties of the ensemble of galaxies are unchanged). After cosmological times, the global properties of pairs of 'shadow' galaxies that are matched between the simulations differ from each other generally at a level of ~2-25%, depending on the considered physical quantity. We perform these experiments using cosmological volumes of (25-50Mpc/h)^3 evolved either purely with dark matter, or with baryons and star-formation but no feedback, or using the full feedback model of the IllustrisTNG project. The runs cover four resolution levels spanning a factor of 512 in mass. We find that without feedback the differences between shadow galaxies generally become smaller as the resolution increases, but with the IllustrisTNG model the results are mostly converging towards a 'floor'. This hints at the role of feedback in setting the chaotic properties of galaxy formation. Importantly, we compare the macroscopic differences between shadow galaxies to the overall scatter in various galaxy scaling relations, and conclude that for the star formation-mass and the Tully-Fisher relations the butterfly effect in our simulations contributes significantly to the overall scatter. We find that our results are robust to whether random numbers are used in the sub-grid models or not. We discuss the implications for galaxy formation theory in general and for cosmological simulations in particular.

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Massive BH Binaries as Periodically-Variable AGN

Massive black-hole (MBH) binaries, which are expected to form following the merger of their parent galaxies, produce gravitational waves which will be detectable by Pulsar Timing Arrays at nanohertz frequencies (year periods). While no confirmed, compact MBH binary systems have been seen in electromagnetic observations, a large number of candidates have recently been identified in optical surveys of AGN variability. Using a combination of cosmological, hydrodynamic simulations; comprehensive, semi-analytic binary merger models; and analytic AGN spectra and variability prescriptions; we calculate the expected electromagnetic detection rates of MBH binaries as periodically variable AGN. In particular, we consider two independent variability models: (i) Doppler boosting due to large orbital velocities, and (ii) hydrodynamic variability in which the fueling of MBH accretion disks is periodically modulated by the companion. Our models predict that numerous MBH binaries should be present and distinguishable in the existing data. In particular, our fiducial models produce an expectation value of $0.2$ (Doppler) and $5$ (hydrodynamic) binaries to be identifiable in CRTS, while $20$ and $100$ are expected after five years of LSST observations. The brightness variations in most systems are too small to be distinguishable, but almost $1\%$ of AGN at redshifts $z \lesssim 0.6$ could be in massive binaries. We analyze the predicted binary parameters of observable systems and their selection biases, and include an extensive discussion of our model parameters and uncertainties.

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Efficacy of early stellar feedback in low gas surface density environments

We present a suite of high resolution radiation hydrodynamic simulations of a small patch ($1 \ {\rm kpc}^2$) of the inter-stellar medium (ISM) performed with Arepo-RT, with the aim to quantify the efficacy of various feedback processes like supernovae explosions (SNe), photoheating and radiation pressure in low gas surface density galaxies ($Σ_{\rm gas} \simeq 10 \ {\rm M}_\odot \ {\rm pc}^{-2}$). We show that radiation fields decrease the star formation rate and therefore the total stellar mass formed by a factor of $\sim 2$. This increases the gas depletion timescale and brings the simulated Kennicutt-Schmidt relation closer to the observational estimates. Radiation feedback coupled with SNe is more efficient at driving outflows with the mass and energy loading increasing by a factor of $\sim 10$. This increase is mainly driven by the additional entrainment of medium density ($10^{-2} \leq n< 1 \ {\rm cm}^{-3}$), warm ($300 \ {\rm K}\leq T<8000 \ {\rm K}$) material. Therefore including radiation fields tends to launch colder, denser and higher mass and energy loaded outflows. This is because photoheating of the high density gas around a newly formed star over-pressurises the region, causing it to expand. This reduces the ambient density in which the SNe explode by a factor of $10-100$ which in turn increases their momentum output by a factor of $\sim 1.5-2.5$. Finally, we note that in these low gas surface density environments, radiation fields primarily impact the ISM via photoheating and radiation pressure has only a minimal role in regulating star formation.

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