arXiv subjects

Lars Schmidt-Thieme

Publications and source records attributed to Lars Schmidt-Thieme.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Sliding-Window Reordering with Overlap Averaging: A Simple Time-Domain Augmentation for Multivariate Forecasting

Augmentation has become a central technique for improving deep forecasting models, but classification-style transformations tend to break the coherence between the look-back window and its continuous future target. We describe a simple procedure that unfolds the joint input-target sequence into overlapping sliding windows, randomly reorders a controlled fraction of them-prioritized by a lightweight variance criterion-and reconstructs the sequence by averaging across the overlaps, producing synthetic samples with controlled variation while limiting temporal distortion. The procedure is model-agnostic, introduces only three interpretable hyperparameters, and achieves strong improvements over a comprehensive set of competing augmentations across nine long-term forecasting benchmarks with five backbone families (TSMixer, DLinear, PatchTST, TiDE, LightTS) and four short-term traffic benchmarks with PatchTST. Component-wise ablations, hyperparameter sensitivity studies, distributional-alignment diagnostics, probabilistic forecasting evaluation, and a transfer experiment to univariate and multivariate time series classification clarify the contribution of each design choice.

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arXiv2026

Recurrent State Encoders for Efficient Neural Combinatorial Optimization

The primary paradigm in Neural Combinatorial Optimization (NCO) consists of construction methods, where a neural network is trained to sequentially add one solution component at a time until a complete solution is formed. We observe that the typical changes to the state between two steps are small, since usually only the node added to the solution is removed from the state. An efficient model should be able to reuse computation from prior steps. To that end, we propose a recurrent encoder that computes state embeddings based not only on the current state but also on embeddings from the previous state. We show that this recurrent encoder can achieve equivalent or better performance than a non-recurrent encoder even with $3\times$ fewer layers, thus significantly improving latency. We demonstrate our findings on three different problems: the Traveling Salesman Problem (TSP), the Capacitated Vehicle Routing Problem (CVRP), and the Orienteering Problem (OP), and integrate the models into a large neighborhood search algorithm to showcase the practical relevance of our findings.

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arXiv2026

Two-stage Odd Residual Flows for Mean-Preserving Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting

Probabilistic forecasting plays an essential role in risk-sensitive decision-making, particularly in long-horizon settings. However, existing approaches often face a fundamental trade-off between distributional flexibility and accurate mean prediction. Traditional parametric methods, such as Mean Variance Estimation (MVE), can suffer from degraded point accuracy when trained under joint Negative Log-Likelihood (NLL) objectives, while modern-flexible generative models, including Normalizing Flows and Diffusion Models, typically rely on costly Monte Carlo sampling and may yield suboptimal mean estimates. To address this limitation, we propose Two-stage Odd Residual Flows (TORF), a framework that decouples mean forecasting from uncertainty estimation. In the first stage, a pre-trained deterministic model is used to produce an accurate mean prediction. In the second stage, a Restricted Normalizing Flow, with strictly odd functions learns flexible residual distributions around the point forecast, guaranteeing mean preservation from the first stage without sampling. Experiments show that TORF achieves state-of-the-art deterministic accuracy (NMAE) while providing strong density estimation performance (CRPS) on short and long-horizon forecasting.

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arXiv2026

Do Tabular Foundation Models Agree with Themselves?

Tabular Foundation Models (TFMs) are currently the best approach to tabular prediction problems. They are constructed as transformers that approximate the Bayesian posterior predictive distribution based on a pre-training prior. These univariate predictors can be converted into multivariate ones autoregressively by sampling one target and adding it to the features. However, the faithfulness of the resulting joint has not been investigated. Furthermore, TFMs cannot be evaluated against the posterior itself, at least not on real-world datasets, because the ground-truth distribution is unknown. We therefore propose asking a different question: could a model's predictions result from any joint distribution? To answer this question, we pose two requirements that any such model must satisfy. The first is marginalization consistency, which demands that marginalized conditionals are equal to directly predicted marginals. The second is factorization consistency, which demands that different factorization orders result in equal joint distributions. Every TFM that we evaluate violates both of these requirements for both classification and regression across all datasets.

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arXiv2026

NPMixer: Hierarchical Neighboring Patch Mixing for Time Series Forecasting

Multivariate time series forecasting remains a challenge due to the complexity of local temporal dynamics and global dependencies across multiple variables. In this paper, we propose \textbf{N}eighboring \textbf{P}atching \textbf{Mixer} (\textbf{NPMixer}), a hierarchical architecture featuring a Learnable Stationary Wavelet Transform that adaptively learns filter coefficients to decompose signals into trend and detail components in a data-dependent manner. Our framework introduces a Neighboring Mixer Block that captures local temporal dynamics through a series of hierarchical MLP layers operating on non-overlapping patches. Specifically, the mixer block utilizes MLPs to learn temporal patterns within and across these patches, expanding the receptive field to capture multi-scale dependencies. A Channel-Mixing Encoder is applied to high-frequency components to learn channel correlations while preserving the stability of the underlying global trend. Extensive experiments on seven benchmark datasets demonstrate that NPMixer consistently outperforms state-of-the-art models, achieving better performance in 20 out of 28 ($71.4\%$) evaluated experimental setups for MSE.

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arXiv2026

CAMP: A Cycle-Aware Multi-Scale Patch Mixer for Time Series Forecasting

Real-world time series are often governed by recurring patterns, but their dominant periods may vary across datasets, forecasting settings, and individual input windows. Existing cycle-aware forecasters commonly rely on a single period selected at the dataset level, which can be restrictive when periodic behavior changes over time or when multiple cycles coexist. Moreover, patch-based models typically process all patch positions uni- formly, although patches farther from the forecast boundary may require broader contextual refinement, while recent patches contain information that should be preserved more directly. Af- ter cyclic behavior is removed, the remaining dynamics may also span multiple temporal resolutions and cannot be adequately de- scribed at a single scale. We introduce CAMP, a Cycle-Aware Multi-Scale Patch Mixer designed to address these challenges. The Adaptive Cycle Learning module identifies dominant fre- quencies separately for each input window and generates both historical and future cyclic components without requiring a pre- defined cycle length. The Horizon-Guided Patch Mixer intro- duces position-dependent refinement, allowing earlier patches to incorporate broader temporal context while preserving infor- mation close to the forecast boundary. CAMP further models the de-cycled residual through temporally aligned multi-resolution representations, enabling complementary dynamics at different scales to be captured within one forecasting framework. Across seven long-term forecasting benchmarks, CAMP achieves the best average MSE on six datasets and the best or tied-best MAE on six. It also obtains the highest MSE win count across sixteen settings on four PEMS traffic benchmarks.

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arXiv2026

Prune, Update and Trim: Robust Structured Pruning for Large Language Models

Large Language Models (LLMs) have experienced significant growth and development in recent years. However, performing inference on LLMs remains costly, especially for long-context inference or in resource-constrained devices. This motivates the development of new post-training pruning (PTP) methods. These methods reduce LLMs' requirements by removing a substantial part of the model's parameters. The discarded weights are selected depending on their impact on the models performance. Current PTP methods prune the models by removing the less informative hidden nodes from the FFN layers, and the least important attention layers. We propose Putri, a PTP method that introduces three changes to the State-of-the-art. First, we update the un-pruned weights of the FFN to compensate for the introduced pruning error. Second, the FFN layers are pruned sequentially, taking into account the updates done to the previous layers. Third, instead of removing full attention layers, we remove individual attention-heads. We extend this method such that it can also address Grouped-Query Attention. In summary, Putri is a structure pruning method which remains simple while showing SOTA performance. Pruning experiments on multiple models with a wide variety of sparsity ranges and on different datasets, validate the generality of Putri. Notably, we demonstrate that, unlike previous methods, Putri can prune LLMs on extreme sparsity ratios. The code is available at: https://github.com/Coello-dev/Putri.

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arXiv2026

The Importance of Encoder Choice:A Tabular-Image Study

Multimodal learning usually requires a dedicated encoder per modality. When a tabular modality is involved, prior work has been mostly using a \emph{plain MLP} as the encoder. Yet if it were a strong encoder, the tabular domain would not be ``the last unconquered castle for deep learning''. This study evaluates state-of-the-art tabular models as encoders in the image-tabular setting for the first time. An obstacle stands out. In-Context Learning models, among the best performing methods in the tabular domain, require labels to process instances, making it non-trivial to embed training and test instances the same way. We addressed this problem across multiple models of this family. With this study, we would like to highlight the importance of encoder factor in the multimodal learning.

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arXiv2026

Physiome-ODE: A Benchmark for Irregularly Sampled Multivariate Time Series Forecasting Based on Biological ODEs

State-of-the-art methods for forecasting irregularly sampled time series with missing values predominantly rely on just four datasets and a few small toy examples for evaluation. While ordinary differential equations (ODE) are the prevalent models in science and engineering, a baseline model that forecasts a constant value outperforms ODE-based models from the last five years on three of these existing datasets. This unintuitive finding hampers further research on ODE-based models, a more plausible model family. In this paper, we develop a methodology to generate irregularly sampled multivariate time series (IMTS) datasets from ordinary differential equations and to select challenging instances via rejection sampling. Using this methodology, we create Physiome-ODE, a large and sophisticated benchmark of IMTS datasets consisting of 50 individual datasets, derived from real-world ordinary differential equations from research in biology. Physiome-ODE is the first benchmark for IMTS forecasting that we are aware of and an order of magnitude larger than the current evaluation setting of four datasets. Using our benchmark Physiome-ODE, we show qualitatively completely different results than those derived from the current four datasets: on Physiome-ODE ODE-based models can play to their strength and our benchmark can differentiate in a meaningful way between different IMTS forecasting models. This way, we expect to give a new impulse to research on ODE-based time series modeling.

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arXiv2026

Valid and Expressive Copulas for Irregular Multivariate Time Series

We introduce CopFITi, a copula model for probabilistic forecasting of irregular multivariate time series (IMTS). Our model combines the expressivity of normalizing flows for univariate marginals with the consistency and flexibility of a Gaussian Mixture Copula for the joint dependency structure. Our experiments show that copula-based approaches, which decouple the marginals from the joint, yield better marginal models than architectures that directly fit the full joint. With CopFITi, we propose the first IMTS copula that is marginalization-consistent by construction and establish a new state of the art in joint IMTS density modeling.

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arXiv2026

LAtte: Hyperbolic Lorentz Attention for Cross-Subject EEG Classification

Electroencephalogram (EEG) classification plays a key role in medical diagnosis and brain-computer interfaces, but remains challenging due to low signal-to-noise ratios and high inter-subject variability. As a result, many existing approaches rely on subject-specific models, which fail to exploit shared structure in neural signals and do not generalize to unseen subjects. To address these limitations, we propose LAtte, a framework that combines Lorentz attention with a hyperbolic InceptionTime-based encoder to improve cross-subject generalization in EEG classification. The model explicitly decomposes EEG signals into a learned baseline component and task-relevant deviations, enabling more structured representation learning. To further improve robustness and adaptability, we incorporate subject-specific low-rank adaptation (LoRA) modules at both encoder and decoder levels, augmented with a Lorentz boost-based LoRA mechanism and hyperbolic projection layers to reduce overfitting in geometric representations. We evaluate LAtte with and without finetuning in three settings: subject-specific, subject-conditional, and leave-one-subject-out (LOSO) on five established EEG datasets, achieving a consistent improvement in performance over current state-of-the-art methods for smaller datasets and maintaining performance for larger datasets.

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arXiv2026

Rethinking Convolutional Networks for Attribute-Aware Sequential Recommendation

Attribute-aware sequential recommendation entails predicting the next item a user will interact with based on a chronologically ordered history of past interactions, enriched with item attributes. Existing methods typically leverage self-attention mechanisms to aggregate the entire sequence into a unified representation used for next-item prediction. While effective, these models often suffer from high computational complexity and memory consumption, limiting their ability to process long user histories. This constraint restricts the model's capacity to fully capture long-term user preferences. In some scenarios, modeling item interactions purely through attention may also not be the most effective approach to extract sequential patterns. In this work, we propose ConvRec, an alternative method with linear computational and memory complexity that employs convolutional layers in a hierarchical, down-scaled fashion to generate compact, yet expressive sequence representations. To further enhance the model's ability to capture diverse sequential patterns, each layer aggregates the neighboring items gradually to reach a comprehensive sequence representation. Extensive experiments on four real-world datasets demonstrate that our approach outperforms state-of-the-art sequential recommendation models, highlighting the potential of convolution-based architectures for efficient and effective sequence modeling in recommendation systems. Our implementation code and datasets are available here https://github.com/ismll-research/ConvRec.

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arXiv2026

Probabilistic Circuits for Irregular Multivariate Time Series Forecasting

Joint probabilistic modeling is essential for forecasting irregular multivariate time series (IMTS) to accurately quantify uncertainty. Existing approaches often struggle to balance model expressivity with consistent marginalization, frequently leading to unreliable or contradictory forecasts. To address this, we propose CircuITS, a novel architecture for probabilistic IMTS forecasting based on probabilistic circuits. Our model is flexible in capturing intricate dependencies between time series channels while structurally guaranteeing valid joint distributions. Experiments on four real world datasets demonstrate that CircuITS achieves superior joint and marginal density estimation compared to state of the art baselines.

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arXiv2026

Mixing It Up: Exploring Mixer Networks for Irregular Multivariate Time Series Forecasting

Forecasting irregularly sampled multivariate time series with missing values (IMTS) is a fundamental challenge in domains such as healthcare, climate science, and biology. While recent advances in vision and time series forecasting have shown that lightweight MLP-based architectures (e.g., MLP-Mixer, TSMixer) can rival attention-based models in both accuracy and efficiency, their applicability to irregular and sparse time series remains unexplored. In this paper, we propose IMTS-Mixer, a novel architecture that adapts the principles of Mixer models to the IMTS setting. IMTS-Mixer introduces two key components: (1) ISCAM, a channel-wise encoder that transforms irregular observations into fixed-size vectors using simple MLPs, and (2) ConTP, a continuous time decoder that supports forecasting at arbitrary time points. In our experiments on established benchmark datasets we show that our model achieves state-of-the- art performance in both forecasting accuracy and inference time, while using fewer parameters compared to baselines.

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arXiv2026

HPMixer: Hierarchical Patching for Multivariate Time Series Forecasting

In long-term multivariate time series forecasting, effectively capturing both periodic patterns and residual dynamics is essential. To address this within standard deep learning benchmark settings, we propose the Hierarchical Patching Mixer (HPMixer), which models periodicity and residuals in a decoupled yet complementary manner. The periodic component utilizes a learnable cycle module [7] enhanced with a nonlinear channel-wise MLP for greater expressiveness. The residual component is processed through a Learnable Stationary Wavelet Transform (LSWT) to extract stable, shift-invariant frequency-domain representations. Subsequently, a channel-mixing encoder models explicit inter-channel dependencies, while a two-level non-overlapping hierarchical patching mechanism captures coarse- and fine-scale residual variations. By integrating decoupled periodicity modeling with structured, multi-scale residual learning, HPMixer provides an effective framework. Extensive experiments on standard multivariate benchmarks demonstrate that HPMixer achieves competitive or state-of-the-art performance compared to recent baselines.

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arXiv2026

Channel Dependence, Limited Lookback Windows, and the Simplicity of Datasets: How Biased is Time Series Forecasting?

In Long-term Time Series Forecasting (LTSF), the lookback window is a critical hyperparameter often set arbitrarily, undermining the validity of model evaluations. We argue that the lookback window must be tuned on a per-task basis to ensure fair comparisons. Our empirical results show that failing to do so can invert performance rankings, particularly when comparing univariate and multivariate methods. Experiments on standard benchmarks reposition Channel-Independent (CI) models, such as PatchTST, as state-of-the-art methods. However, we reveal this superior performance is largely an artifact of weak inter-channel correlations and simplicity of patterns within these specific datasets. Using Granger causality analysis and ODE datasets (with implicit channel correlations), we demonstrate that the true strength of multivariate Channel-Dependent (CD) models emerges on datasets with strong, inherent cross-channel dependencies, where they significantly outperform CI models. We conclude with four key recommendations for improving TSF research: (i) consider the lookback window as a key hyperparameter to tune, (ii) for standard datasets, examining CI architectures is advantageous, (iii) leverage statistical analysis of datasets to guide the choice between CI and CD architectures, and (iv) prefer CD models in scenarios with limited data.

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arXiv2026

Robust Hyperbolic Learning with Curvature-Aware Optimization

Hyperbolic deep learning has become a growing research direction in computer vision due to the unique properties afforded by the alternate embedding space. The negative curvature and exponentially growing distance metric provide a natural framework for capturing hierarchical relationships between datapoints and allowing for finer separability between their embeddings. However, current hyperbolic learning approaches are still prone to overfitting, computationally expensive, and prone to instability, especially when attempting to learn the manifold curvature to adapt to tasks and different datasets. To address these issues, our paper presents a derivation for Riemannian AdamW that helps increase hyperbolic generalization ability. For improved stability, we introduce a novel fine-tunable hyperbolic scaling approach to constrain hyperbolic embeddings and reduce approximation errors. Using this along with our curvature-aware learning schema for Riemannian Optimizers enables the combination of curvature and non-trivialized hyperbolic parameter learning. Our approach demonstrates consistent performance improvements across Computer Vision, EEG classification, and hierarchical metric learning tasks while greatly reducing runtime.

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arXiv2026

HexFormer: Hyperbolic Vision Transformer with Exponential Map Aggregation

Data across modalities such as images, text, and graphs often contains hierarchical and relational structures, which are challenging to model within Euclidean geometry. Hyperbolic geometry provides a natural framework for representing such structures. Building on this property, this work introduces HexFormer, a hyperbolic vision transformer for image classification that incorporates exponential map aggregation within its attention mechanism. Two designs are explored: a hyperbolic ViT (HexFormer) and a hybrid variant (HexFormer-Hybrid) that combines a hyperbolic encoder with an Euclidean linear classification head. HexFormer incorporates a novel attention mechanism based on exponential map aggregation, which yields more accurate and stable aggregated representations than standard centroid based averaging, showing that simpler approaches retain competitive merit. Experiments across multiple datasets demonstrate consistent performance improvements over Euclidean baselines and prior hyperbolic ViTs, with the hybrid variant achieving the strongest overall results. Additionally, this study provides an analysis of gradient stability in hyperbolic transformers. The results reveal that hyperbolic models exhibit more stable gradients and reduced sensitivity to warmup strategies compared to Euclidean architectures, highlighting their robustness and efficiency in training. Overall, these findings indicate that hyperbolic geometry can enhance vision transformer architectures by improving gradient stability and accuracy. In addition, relatively simple mechanisms such as exponential map aggregation can provide strong practical benefits.

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