arXiv subjects

Laura Blecha

Publications and source records attributed to Laura Blecha.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

arXiv2025

The Gravitational Wave Background from Massive Black Holes in the ASTRID Simulation

Recent pulsar timing array (PTA) observations have detected nanohertz gravitational waves, likely originating from massive black hole binaries (MBHBs). The detected amplitude is unexpectedly higher than inferred from the electromagnetic measurements. We present new gravitational wave background (GWB) results from the ASTRID simulation. Its large volume and on-the-fly dynamical friction for MBHs provide new insights into the MBHB population, offering a more accurate assessment of its contribution to the observed GWB. ASTRID predicts a GWB from MBHBs of $h_c=2.8\times10^{-15}$, or $\sim45\%$ of the observed amplitude at $\sim 4\,{\rm nHz}$ and $h_c=2.5\times10^{-16}$ ($5\%$) with $h_c\propto f^{-1.6}$ at $\sim 30\,{\rm nHz}$. These predictions remain below current PTA constraints but align with previous empirical models based on the observed MBH mass functions. By comparison, TNG300 with post-processed MBH dynamics yields a range between $70-90\%$ ($20\% - 30\%$) of the observed levels at low (high) frequencies. At low frequencies, ASTRID predicts that the bulk of the GWB originates from MBHB with masses $M_{\rm tot}=1-3\times 10^9\,M_\odot$ peaking at $z\approx 0.3$, consistent with TNG300. Notably, both simulations predict significant GWB contribution from minor mergers ($q<0.2$) by up to $\sim 40\%$. By tracing the full merger trees of local MBHs in ASTRID, we show that they generate GWs at $\sim 10\%-80\%$ of the maximum signal assuming no accretion and recent equal-mass mergers. Finally, we demonstrate the importance of on-the-fly MBH dynamics, the lack of which leads to $3- 5$ times excessive mass growth by merger, and a similar boost to the GWB prediction.

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arXiv2025

The NANOGrav 15 yr Data Set: Running of the Spectral Index

The NANOGrav 15-year data provides compelling evidence for a stochastic gravitational-wave (GW) background at nanohertz frequencies. The simplest model-independent approach to characterizing the frequency spectrum of this signal consists in a simple power-law fit involving two parameters: an amplitude A and a spectral index γ. In this paper, we consider the next logical step beyond this minimal spectral model, allowing for a running (i.e., logarithmic frequency dependence) of the spectral index, γ_run(f) = γ+ β\ln(f/f_ref). We fit this running-power-law (RPL) model to the NANOGrav 15-year data and perform a Bayesian model comparison with the minimal constant-power-law (CPL) model, which results in a 95% credible interval for the parameter βconsistent with no running, β\in [-0.80,2.96], and an inconclusive Bayes factor, B(RPL vs. CPL) = 0.69 +- 0.01. We thus conclude that, at present, the minimal CPL model still suffices to adequately describe the NANOGrav signal; however, future data sets may well lead to a measurement of nonzero β. Finally, we interpret the RPL model as a description of primordial GWs generated during cosmic inflation, which allows us to combine our results with upper limits from big-bang nucleosynthesis, the cosmic microwave background, and LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2024

On the Use of Letters of Recommendation in Astronomy and Astrophysics Graduate Admissions

Letters of recommendation are a common tool used in graduate admissions. Most admissions systems require three letters for each applicant, burdening both letter writers and admissions committees with a heavy work load that may not be time well-spent. Most applicants do not have three research advisors who can comment meaningfully on research readiness, adding a large number of letters that are not useful. Ideally, letters of recommendation will showcase the students' promise for a research career, but in practice, the letters often do not fulfill this purpose. As a group of early and mid-career faculty who write dozens of letters every year for promising undergraduates, we are concerned and overburdened by the inefficiencies of the current system. In this open letter to the AAS Graduate Admissions Task Force, we offer an alternative to the current use of letters of recommendation: a portfolio submitted by the student, which highlights e.g., a paper, plot, or presentation that represents their past work and readiness for grad school, uploaded to a centralized system used by astronomy and astrophysics PhD programs. While we argue that we could eliminate letters in this new paradigm, it may instead be advisable to limit the number of letters of recommendation to one per applicant.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2024

Signatures of black hole seeding in the local Universe: Predictions from the BRAHMA cosmological simulations

The first "seeds" of supermassive black holes (BHs) continue to be an outstanding puzzle, and it is currently unclear whether the imprints of early seed formation survive today. Here we examine the signatures of seeding in the local Universe using five $[18~\mathrm{Mpc}]^3$ BRAHMA simulation boxes run to $z=0$. They initialize $1.5\times10^5~M_{\odot}$ BHs using different seeding models. The first four boxes initialize BHs as heavy seeds using criteria that depend on dense & metal-poor gas, Lyman-Werner radiation, gas spin, and environmental richness. The fifth box initializes BHs as descendants of lower mass seeds ($\sim10^3~M_{\odot}$) using a new stochastic seed model built in our previous work. We find that strong signatures of seeding survive in $\sim10^5-10^6~M_{\odot}$ local BHs hosted in $M_*\lesssim10^{9}~M_{\odot}$ dwarf galaxies. The signatures survive due to two reasons: 1) there is a substantial population of local $\sim10^5~M_{\odot}$ BHs that are ungrown relics of early seeds from $z\sim5-10$; 2) BH growth up to $\sim10^6~M_{\odot}$ is dominated by mergers all the way down to $z\sim0$. As the contribution from gas accretion increases, the signatures of seeding start to weaken in more massive $\gtrsim10^6~M_{\odot}$ BHs, and they eventually disappear for $\gtrsim10^7~M_{\odot}$ BHs. This is in contrast to high-z ($z\gtrsim5$) BH populations wherein the BH growth is fully merger dominated, which causes the seeding signatures to persist at least up to $\sim10^8~M_{\odot}$. The different seed models predict abundances of local $\sim10^6~M_{\odot}$ BHs ranging from $\sim0.01-0.05~\mathrm{Mpc}^{-3}$ with occupation fractions of $\sim20-100\%$ in $M_*\sim10^{9}~M_{\odot}$ galaxies. Our results highlight the potential for local $\sim10^5-10^6~M_{\odot}$ BH populations in dwarf galaxies to serve as a promising probe for BH seeding models.

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arXiv2024

The NANOGrav 15 yr Data Set: Harmonic Analysis of the Pulsar Angular Correlations

Pulsar timing array observations have found evidence for an isotropic gravitational wave background with the Hellings-Downs angular correlations, expected from general relativity. This interpretation hinges on the measured shape of the angular correlations, which is predominately quadrupolar under general relativity. Here we explore a more flexible parameterization: we expand the angular correlations into a sum of Legendre polynomials and use a Bayesian analysis to constrain their coefficients with the 15-year pulsar timing data set collected by the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav). When including Legendre polynomials with multipoles $\ell \geq 2$, we only find a significant signal in the quadrupole with an amplitude consistent with general relativity and non-zero at the $\sim 95\%$ confidence level and a Bayes factor of 200. When we include multipoles $\ell \leq 1$, the Bayes factor evidence for quadrupole correlations decreases by more than an order of magnitude due to evidence for a monopolar signal at approximately 4 nHz which has also been noted in previous analyses of the NANOGrav 15-year data. Further work needs to be done in order to better characterize the properties of this monopolar signal and its effect on the evidence for quadrupolar angular correlations.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2024

The NANOGrav 15 yr Data Set: Looking for Signs of Discreteness in the Gravitational-wave Background

The cosmic merger history of supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs) is expected to produce a low-frequency gravitational wave background (GWB). Here we investigate how signs of the discrete nature of this GWB can manifest in pulsar timing arrays through excursions from, and breaks in, the expected $f_{\mathrm{GW}}^{-2/3}$ power-law of the GWB strain spectrum. To do this, we create a semi-analytic SMBHB population model, fit to NANOGrav's 15 yr GWB amplitude, and with 1,000 realizations we study the populations' characteristic strain and residual spectra. Comparing our models to the NANOGrav 15 yr spectrum, we find two interesting excursions from the power-law. The first, at $2 \; \mathrm{nHz}$, is below our GWB realizations with $p$-value significance $p = 0.05$ to $0.06$ ($\approx 1.8 σ- 1.9 σ$). The second, at $16 \; \mathrm{nHz}$, is above our GWB realizations with $p = 0.04$ to $0.15$ ($\approx 1.4 σ- 2.1 σ$). We explore the properties of a loud SMBHB which could cause such an excursion. Our simulations also show that the expected number of SMBHBs decreases by three orders of magnitude, from $\sim 10^6$ to $\sim 10^3$, between $2\; \mathrm{nHz}$ and $20 \; \mathrm{nHz}$. This causes a break in the strain spectrum as the stochasticity of the background breaks down at $26^{+28}_{-19} \; \mathrm{nHz}$, consistent with predictions pre-dating GWB measurements. The diminished GWB signal from SMBHBs at frequencies above the $26~\mathrm{nHz}$ break opens a window for PTAs to detect continuous GWs from individual SMBHBs or GWs from the early universe.

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arXiv2024

Key Science Goals for the Next Generation Very Large Array (ngVLA): Update from the ngVLA Science Advisory Council (2024)

In 2017, the next generation Very Large Array (ngVLA) Science Advisory Council, together with the international astronomy community, developed a set of five Key Science Goals (KSGs) to inform, prioritize and refine the technical capabilities of a future radio telescope array for high angular resolution operation from 1.2 - 116 GHz with 10 times the sensitivity of the Jansky VLA and ALMA. The resulting KSGs, which require observations at centimeter and millimeter wavelengths that cannot be achieved by any other facility, represent a small subset of the broad range of astrophysical problems that the ngVLA will be able address. This document presents an update to the original ngVLA KSGs, taking account of new results and progress in the 7+ years since their initial presentation, again drawing on the expertise of the ngVLA Science Advisory Council and the broader community in the ngVLA Science Working Groups. As the design of the ngVLA has also matured substantially in this period, this document also briefly addresses initial expectations for ngVLA data products and processing that will be needed to achieve the KSGs. The original ngVLA KSGs endure as outstanding problems of high priority. In brief, they are: (1) Unveiling the Formation of Solar System Analogues; (2) Probing the Initial Conditions for Planetary Systems and Life with Astrochemistry; (3) Charting the Assembly, Structure, and Evolution of Galaxies from the First Billion Years to the Present; (4) Science at the Extremes: Pulsars as Laboratories for Fundamental Physics; (5) Understanding the Formation and Evolution of Stellar and Supermassive Black Holes in the Era of Multi-Messenger Astronomy.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2024

Local Analogs of Primordial Galaxies: In Search of Intermediate Mass Black Holes with JWST NIRSpec

Local low metallicity galaxies with signatures of possible accretion activity are ideal laboratories in which to search for the lowest mass black holes and study their impact on the host galaxy. Here we present the first JWST NIRSpec IFS observations of SDSS J120122.30+021108.3, a nearby ($z=0.00354$) extremely metal poor dwarf galaxy with no optical signatures of accretion activity but identified by WISE to have extremely red mid-infrared colors consistent with AGNs. We identify over one hundred lines between $\sim$ 1.7-5.2 microns, an unresolved nuclear continuum source with an extremely steep spectral slope consistent with hot dust from an AGN ($F_ν\approxν^{-1.5}$), and a plethora of H I, He I, and H$_2$ lines, with no lines from heavier elements, CO or ice absorption features, or PAHs.Our observations reveal that the red WISE source arises exclusively from a bright central unresolved source ($<$ 3pc) suggestive of an AGN, yet there are no He II lines or coronal lines identified in the spectrum, and, importantly, there is no evidence that the radiation field is harder in the nuclear source compared with surrounding regions. These observations can be explained with a young ($<$ 5 Myr) nuclear star cluster with stellar mass $\sim3\times 10^4$ M$_\odot$ and a deeply embedded AGN with bolometric luminosity $\sim$ $2\times10^{41}$ ergs $^{-1}$. The implied black hole mass is $\sim$ 1450 M$_\odot$, based on the Eddington limit, roughly consistent with that expected based on extrapolations of black hole galaxy scaling relations derived for more massive black holes. Longer wavelength observations are crucial to confirm this scenario.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2024

Growth of high redshift supermassive black holes from heavy seeds in the BRAHMA cosmological simulations: Implications of overmassive black holes

JWST has recently revealed a large population of accreting black holes (BHs) in the early Universe. Even after accounting for possible systematic biases, the high-z $M_*-M_{\rm \rm bh}$ relation derived from these objects by Pacucci et al. (2023 P23 relation) is above the local scaling relation by $>3σ$. To understand the implications of potentially overmassive high-z BH populations, we study the BH growth at $z\sim4-7$ using the $[18~\mathrm{Mpc}]^3$ BRAHMA suite of cosmological simulations with systematic variations of heavy seed models that emulate direct collapse black hole (DCBH) formation. In our least restrictive seed model, we place $\sim10^5~M_{\odot}$ seeds in halos with sufficient dense and metal-poor gas. To model conditions for direct collapse, we impose additional criteria based on a minimum Lyman Werner flux (LW flux $=10~J_{21}$), maximum gas spin, and an environmental richness criterion. The high-z BH growth in our simulations is merger dominated, with a relatively small contribution from gas accretion. For the most restrictive simulation that includes all the above seeding criteria for DCBH formation, the high-z $M_*-M_{\rm bh}$ relation falls significantly below the P23 relation (by factor of $\sim10$ at $z\sim4$). Only by excluding the spin and environment based criteria, and by assuming $\lesssim750~\mathrm{Myr}$ delay times between host galaxy mergers and subsequent BH mergers, are we able to reproduce the P23 relation. Overall, our results suggest that if high-z BHs are indeed systematically overmassive, assembling them would require more efficient heavy seeding channels, higher initial seed masses, additional contributions from lighter seeds to BH mergers, and / or more efficient modes for BH accretion.

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arXiv2024

A quasar-galaxy merger at $z\sim 6.2$: rapid host growth via accretion of two massive satellite galaxies

We present JWST/NIRSpec Integral Field Spectroscopy in the rest-frame optical bands of the system PJ308-21, a quasar at $z=6.2342$ caught as its host galaxy interacts with companion galaxies. We detect spatially extended emission of several emission lines (H$α$, H$β$, [OIII], [NII], [SII], HeII), which we use to study the properties of the ionized phase of the interstellar medium: the source and hardness of the photoionizing radiation field, metallicity, dust reddening, electron density and temperature, and star formation. We also marginally detect continuum starlight emission associated with the companion sources. We find that at least two independent satellite galaxies are part of the system. While the quasar host appears highly enriched and obscured, with AGN-like photoionization conditions, the western companion shows minimal dust extinction, low metallicity ($Z\sim0.4$ Z$_\odot$), and star-formation driven photoionization. The eastern companion shows higher extinction and metallicity ($Z\sim0.8$ Z$_\odot$) compared to the western companion, and it is at least partially photoionized by the nearby quasar. We do not find any indication of AGN in the companion sources. Our study shows that while the quasar host galaxy is already very massive ($M_{\rm dyn}>10^{11}$ M$_\odot$), it is still rapidly building up by accreting two relatively massive ($M_{\rm star}\sim 10^{10}$ M$_\odot$) companion sources. This dataset showcases the power of JWST in exposing the build-up of massive galaxies in the first Gyr of the Universe.

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arXiv2024

AGN feedback in isolated galaxies with a SMUGGLE multiphase ISM

Feedback from active galactic nuclei (AGN) can strongly impact the host galaxies by driving high-velocity winds that impart substantial energy and momentum to the interstellar medium (ISM). In this work, we study the impact of these winds in isolated galaxies using high-resolution hydrodynamics simulations. Our simulations use the explicit ISM and stellar evolution model called Stars and MUltiphase Gas in GaLaxiEs (SMUGGLE). Additionally, using a super-Lagrangian refinement scheme, we resolve AGN feedback coupling to the ISM at $\sim$10-100 pc scales. We find that AGN feedback efficiently regulates the growth of SMBHs. However, its effect on star formation and outflows depends strongly on the relative strengths of AGN vs local stellar feedback and the geometrical structure of the gas disk. When the energy injected by AGN is subdominant to that of stellar feedback, there are no significant changes in the star formation rates or mass outflow rates of the host galaxy. Conversely, when the energy budget is dominated by the AGN, we see a significant decline in the star formation rates accompanied by an increase in outflows. Galaxies with thin gas disks like the Milky Way allow feedback to escape easily into the polar directions without doing much work on the ISM. In contrast, galaxies with thick and diffuse gas disks confine the initial expansion of the feedback bubble within the disk, resulting in more work done on the ISM. Phase space analysis indicates that outflows primarily comprise hot and diffuse gas, with a lack of cold and dense gas.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2024

A quasar-galaxy merger at $z\sim6.2$: black hole mass and quasar properties from the NIRSpec spectrum

We present JWST/NIRSpec integral field data of the quasar PJ308-21 at $z=6.2342$. As shown by previous ALMA and HST imaging, the quasar has two companion sources, interacting with the quasar host galaxy. The high-resolution G395H/290LP NIRSpec spectrum covers the $2.87-5.27\ \rm μm$ wavelength range and shows the rest-frame optical emission of the quasar with exquisite quality ($S/N\sim 100-400$ per spectral element). Based on the H$β$ line from the broad line region, we obtain an estimate of the black hole mass $M_{\rm BH,Hβ}\sim 2.7\times 10^{9}\ \rm M_{\odot}$. This value is within a factor $\lesssim 1.5$ of the H$α$-based black hole mass from the same spectrum ($M_{\rm BH, Hα}\sim 1.93\times 10^{9}\ \rm M_{\odot}$) and is consistent with a previous estimate relying on the MgII $λ2799$ ($M_{\rm BH, MgII}\sim 2.65\times 10^{9}\ \rm M_{\odot}$). All these $M_{\rm BH}$ are within the $\sim 0.5$ dex intrinsic scatter of the adopted mass calibrations. The high Eddington ratio of PJ308-21 $λ_{\rm Edd,Hβ}\sim 0.67$ ($λ_{\rm Edd,Hα}\sim 0.96$) is in line with the overall quasar population at $z \gtrsim 6$. The relative strengths of the [OIII], FeII and H$β$ lines are consistent with the empirical "Eigenvector 1" correlations as observed for low redshift quasars. We find evidence for blueshifted [OIII] $λ5007$ emission with a velocity offset $Δv_{\rm [OIII]}=-1922\pm 39$ km s$^{-1}$ from the systemic velocity and a $\rm FWHM([OIII])=2776^{+75}_{-74}$ km s$^{-1}$. This may be the signature of an outflow from the nuclear region, despite the true values of $Δv_{\rm [OIII]}$ and $\rm FWHM([OIII])$ are likely more uncertain due to the blending with H$β$ and FeII lines. Our study demonstrates the unique capabilities of NIRSpec in capturing quasar spectra at cosmic dawn and studying their properties in unprecedented detail.

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arXiv2024

Introducing the BRAHMA simulation suite: Signatures of low mass black hole seeding models in cosmological simulations

The first "seeds" of supermassive black holes (BH) can range from $\sim10^2-10^6~M_{\odot}$. However, the lowest mass seeds ($\lesssim10^3 M_{\odot}$) are inaccessible to most cosmological simulations due to resolution limitations. We present our new BRAHMA suite of cosmological simulations that uses a novel flexible seeding approach to represent low mass seeds. Our suite consists of two types of boxes that model $\sim10^3~M_{\odot}$ seeds using two distinct but mutually consistent seeding prescriptions at different simulation resolutions. First, we have the highest resolution $[9~\mathrm{Mpc}]^3$ (BRAHMA-9-D3) boxes that directly resolve $\sim10^3~M_{\odot}$ seeds and place them within halos with dense and metal poor gas. Second, we have lower-resolution and larger-volume $[18~\mathrm{Mpc}]^3$ (BRAHMA-18-E4) and $\sim[36~\mathrm{Mpc}]^3$ (BRAHMA-36-E5) boxes that seed their smallest resolvable $\sim10^4~\&~10^5~\mathrm{M_{\odot}}$ BH descendants using new stochastic seeding prescriptions calibrated using the BRAHMA-9-D3 results. The three boxes together probe BHs between $\sim10^3-10^7 M_{\odot}$ at $z>7$ and we predict their key observables. The variation in the AGN luminosity functions is small (factors of $\sim2-3$) at the anticipated detection limits of potential future X-ray facilities ($\sim10^{43} \mathrm{ergs~s^{-1}}$ at $z\sim7$). Our simulations predict BHs $\sim10-100$ times heavier than expectations from local $M_*$ vs $M_{bh}$ relations, consistent with several JWST-detected AGN. For different seed models, our simulations merge BH binaries at $\sim1-15~\mathrm{kpc}$, with rates of $\sim200-2000$ per year for $\gtrsim10^3 M_{\odot}$ BHs, $\sim6-60$ per year for $\gtrsim10^4~M_{\odot}$ BHs, and up to $\sim10$ per year amongst $\gtrsim10^5 M_{\odot}$ BHs. These results suggest that the LISA mission has promising prospects for constraining seed models.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2024

The NANOGrav 12.5-year data set: A computationally efficient eccentric binary search pipeline and constraints on an eccentric supermassive binary candidate in 3C 66B

The radio galaxy 3C 66B has been hypothesized to host a supermassive black hole binary (SMBHB) at its center based on electromagnetic observations. Its apparent 1.05-year period and low redshift ($\sim0.02$) make it an interesting testbed to search for low-frequency gravitational waves (GWs) using Pulsar Timing Array (PTA) experiments. This source has been subjected to multiple searches for continuous GWs from a circular SMBHB, resulting in progressively more stringent constraints on its GW amplitude and chirp mass. In this paper, we develop a pipeline for performing Bayesian targeted searches for eccentric SMBHBs in PTA data sets, and test its efficacy by applying it on simulated data sets with varying injected signal strengths. We also search for a realistic eccentric SMBHB source in 3C 66B using the NANOGrav 12.5-year data set employing PTA signal models containing Earth term-only as well as Earth+Pulsar term contributions using this pipeline. Due to limitations in our PTA signal model, we get meaningful results only when the initial eccentricity $e_0<0.5$ and the symmetric mass ratio $η>0.1$. We find no evidence for an eccentric SMBHB signal in our data, and therefore place 95% upper limits on the PTA signal amplitude of $88.1\pm3.7$ ns for the Earth term-only and $81.74\pm0.86$ ns for the Earth+Pulsar term searches for $e_0<0.5$ and $η>0.1$. Similar 95% upper limits on the chirp mass are $(1.98 \pm 0.05) \times 10^9\,M_{\odot}$ and $(1.81 \pm 0.01) \times 10^9\,M_{\odot}$. These upper limits, while less stringent than those calculated from a circular binary search in the NANOGrav 12.5-year data set, are consistent with the SMBHB model of 3C 66B developed from electromagnetic observations.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2023

How to Detect an Astrophysical Nanohertz Gravitational-Wave Background

Analysis of pulsar timing data have provided evidence for a stochastic gravitational wave background in the nHz frequency band. The most plausible source of such a background is the superposition of signals from millions of supermassive black hole binaries. The standard statistical techniques used to search for such a background and assess its significance make several simplifying assumptions, namely: i) Gaussianity; ii) isotropy; and most often iii) a power-law spectrum. However, a stochastic background from a finite collection of binaries does not exactly satisfy any of these assumptions. To understand the effect of these assumptions, we test standard analysis techniques on a large collection of realistic simulated datasets. The dataset length, observing schedule, and noise levels were chosen to emulate the NANOGrav 15-year dataset. Simulated signals from millions of binaries drawn from models based on the Illustris cosmological hydrodynamical simulation were added to the data. We find that the standard statistical methods perform remarkably well on these simulated datasets, despite their fundamental assumptions not being strictly met. They are able to achieve a confident detection of the background. However, even for a fixed set of astrophysical parameters, different realizations of the universe result in a large variance in the significance and recovered parameters of the background. We also find that the presence of loud individual binaries can bias the spectral recovery of the background if we do not account for them.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2023

MBH binary intruders: triple systems from cosmological simulations

Massive black hole (MBH) binaries can form following a galaxy merger, but this may not always lead to a MBH binary merger within a Hubble time. The merger timescale depends on how efficiently the MBHs lose orbital energy to the gas and stellar background, and to gravitational waves (GWs). In systems where these mechanisms are inefficient, the binary inspiral time can be long enough for a subsequent galaxy merger to bring a third MBH into the system. In this work, we identify and characterize the population of triple MBH systems in the Illustris cosmological hydrodynamic simulation. We find a substantial occurrence rate of triple MBH systems: in our fiducial model, 22% of all binary systems form triples, and $>70$% of these involve binaries that would not otherwise merge by $z=0$. Furthermore, a significant subset of triples (6% of all binaries, or more than a quarter of all triples) form a triple system at parsec scales, where the three BHs are most likely to undergo a strong three-body interaction. Crucially, we find that the rate of triple occurrence has only a weak dependence on key parameters of the binary inspiral model (binary eccentricity and stellar loss-cone refilling rate). We also do not observe strong trends in the host galaxy properties for binary versus triple MBH populations. Our results demonstrate the potential for triple systems to increase MBH merger rates, thereby enhancing the low-frequency GW signals detectable with pulsar timing arrays and with LISA.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2023

Reliable Identification of Binary Supermassive Black Holes from Rubin Observatory Time-Domain Monitoring

Periodic signatures in time-domain observations of quasars have been used to search for binary supermassive black holes. These searches, across existing time-domain surveys, have produced several hundred candidates. The general stochastic variability of quasars, however, can masquerade as a false-positive periodic signal, especially when monitoring cadence and duration are limited. In this work, we predict the detectability of binary supermassive black holes in the upcoming Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). We apply computationally inexpensive sinusoidal curve fits to millions of simulated LSST Deep Drilling Field light curves of both single, isolated quasars and binary quasars. Period and phase of simulated binary signals can generally be disentangled from quasar variability. Binary amplitude is overestimated and poorly recovered for two-thirds of potential binaries due to quasar accretion variability. Quasars with strong intrinsic variability can obscure a binary signal too much for recovery. We also find that the most luminous quasars mimic current binary candidate light curves and their properties: false positive rates are 60\% for these quasars. The reliable recovery of binary period and phase for a wide range of input binary LSST light curves is promising for multi-messenger characterization of binary supermassive black holes. However, pure electromagnetic detections of binaries using photometric periodicity with amplitude greater than 0.1 magnitude will result in samples that are overwhelmed by false positives. This paper represents an important and computationally inexpensive way forward for understanding the true and false positive rates for binary candidates identified by Rubin.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2023

The NANOGrav 15-year data set: Search for Transverse Polarization Modes in the Gravitational-Wave Background

Recently we found compelling evidence for a gravitational wave background with Hellings and Downs (HD) correlations in our 15-year data set. These correlations describe gravitational waves as predicted by general relativity, which has two transverse polarization modes. However, more general metric theories of gravity can have additional polarization modes which produce different interpulsar correlations. In this work we search the NANOGrav 15-year data set for evidence of a gravitational wave background with quadrupolar Hellings and Downs (HD) and Scalar Transverse (ST) correlations. We find that HD correlations are the best fit to the data, and no significant evidence in favor of ST correlations. While Bayes factors show strong evidence for a correlated signal, the data does not strongly prefer either correlation signature, with Bayes factors $\sim 2$ when comparing HD to ST correlations, and $\sim 1$ for HD plus ST correlations to HD correlations alone. However, when modeled alongside HD correlations, the amplitude and spectral index posteriors for ST correlations are uninformative, with the HD process accounting for the vast majority of the total signal. Using the optimal statistic, a frequentist technique that focuses on the pulsar-pair cross-correlations, we find median signal-to-noise-ratios of 5.0 for HD and 4.6 for ST correlations when fit for separately, and median signal-to-noise-ratios of 3.5 for HD and 3.0 for ST correlations when fit for simultaneously. While the signal-to-noise-ratios for each of the correlations are comparable, the estimated amplitude and spectral index for HD are a significantly better fit to the total signal, in agreement with our Bayesian analysis.

gr-qc↗