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Laura Kreidberg

Publications and source records attributed to Laura Kreidberg.

At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources

Detection of Carbon Monoxide in the Atmosphere of WASP-39b Applying Standard Cross-Correlation Techniques to JWST NIRSpec G395H Data

Carbon monoxide was recently reported in the atmosphere of the hot Jupiter WASP-39b using the NIRSpec PRISM transit observation of this planet, collected as part of the JWST Transiting Exoplanet Community Early Release Science (JTEC ERS) Program. This detection, however, could not be confidently confirmed in the initial analysis of the higher resolution observations with NIRSpec G395H disperser. Here we confirm the detection of CO in the atmosphere of WASP-39b using the NIRSpec G395H data and cross-correlation techniques. We do this by searching for the CO signal in the unbinned transmission spectrum of the planet between 4.6 and 5.0 $μ$m, where the contribution of CO is expected to be higher than that of other anticipated molecules in the planet's atmosphere. Our search results in a detection of CO with a cross-correlation function (CCF) significance of $6.6 σ$ when using a template with only ${\rm ^{12}C^{16}O}$ lines. The CCF significance of the CO signal increases to $7.5 σ$ when including in the template lines from additional CO isotopologues, with the largest contribution being from ${\rm ^{13}C^{16}O}$. Our results highlight how cross-correlation techniques can be a powerful tool for unveiling the chemical composition of exoplanetary atmospheres from medium-resolution transmission spectra, including the detection of isotopologues.

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Potential Atmospheric Compositions of TRAPPIST-1 c constrained by JWST/MIRI Observations at 15 $μ$m

The first JWST observations of TRAPPIST-1 c showed a secondary eclipse depth of 421+/-94 ppm at 15 um, which is consistent with a bare rock surface or a thin, O2-dominated, low CO2 atmosphere (Zieba et al. 2023). Here, we further explore potential atmospheres for TRAPPIST-1 c by comparing the observed secondary eclipse depth to synthetic spectra of a broader range of plausible environments. To self-consistently incorporate the impact of photochemistry and atmospheric composition on atmospheric thermal structure and predicted eclipse depth, we use a two-column climate model coupled to a photochemical model, and simulate O2-dominated, Venus-like, and steam atmospheres. We find that a broader suite of plausible atmospheric compositions are also consistent with the data. For lower pressure atmospheres (0.1 bar), our O2-CO2 atmospheres produce eclipse depths within 1$σ$ of the data, consistent with the modeling results of Zieba et al. (2023). However, for higher-pressure atmospheres, our models produce different temperature-pressure profiles and are less pessimistic, with 1-10 bar O2, 100 ppm CO2 models within 2.0-2.2$σ$ of the measured secondary eclipse depth, and up to 0.5% CO2 within 2.9$σ$. Venus-like atmospheres are still unlikely. For thin O2 atmospheres of 0.1 bar with a low abundance of CO2 ($\sim$100 ppm), up to 10% water vapor can be present and still provide an eclipse depth within 1$σ$ of the data. We compared the TRAPPIST-1 c data to modeled steam atmospheres of $\leq$ 3 bar, which are 1.7-1.8$σ$ from the data and not conclusively ruled out. More data will be required to discriminate between possible atmospheres, or to more definitively support the bare rock hypothesis.

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Impacts of high-contrast image processing on atmospheric retrievals

Many post-processing algorithms have been developed in order to better separate the signal of a companion from the bright light of the host star, but the effect of such algorithms on the shape of exoplanet spectra extracted from integral field spectrograph data is poorly understood. The resulting spectra are affected by noise that is correlated in wavelength space due to both optical and data processing effects. Within the framework of Bayesian atmospheric retrievals, we aim to understand how these correlations and other systematic effects impact the inferred physical parameters. We consider three algorithms (KLIP, PynPoint and ANDROMEDA), optimizing the choice of algorithmic parameters using a series of injection tests into archival SPHERE and GPI data of the HR 8799 system. The wavelength-dependent covariance matrix is calculated to provide a measure of instrumental and algorithmic systematics. We perform atmospheric retrievals using petitRADTRANS on optimally extracted spectra to measure how these data processing systematics influence the retrieved parameter distributions. The choice of data processing algorithm and parameters significantly impact the accuracy of retrieval results, with the mean posterior parameter bias ranging from 1 to 3 $σ$ from the true input parameters. Including the full covariance matrix in the likelihood improves the accuracy of inferred parameters, and cannot be accounted for using ad hoc scaling parameters in the retrieval framework. Using the Bayesian information criterion and other statistical measures as a heuristic goodness-of-fit metrics, the retrievals including the full covariance matrix are favoured when compared to using only the diagonal elements.

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No thick carbon dioxide atmosphere on the rocky exoplanet TRAPPIST-1 c

Seven rocky planets orbit the nearby dwarf star TRAPPIST-1, providing a unique opportunity to search for atmospheres on small planets outside the Solar System (Gillon et al., 2017). Thanks to the recent launch of JWST, possible atmospheric constituents such as carbon dioxide (CO2) are now detectable (Morley et al., 2017, Lincowski et al., 2018}. Recent JWST observations of the innermost planet TRAPPIST-1 b showed that it is most probably a bare rock without any CO2 in its atmosphere (Greene et al., 2023). Here we report the detection of thermal emission from the dayside of TRAPPIST-1 c with the Mid-Infrared Instrument (MIRI) on JWST at 15 micron. We measure a planet-to-star flux ratio of fp/fs = 421 +/- 94 parts per million (ppm) which corresponds to an inferred dayside brightness temperature of 380 +/- 31 K. This high dayside temperature disfavours a thick, CO2-rich atmosphere on the planet. The data rule out cloud-free O2/CO2 mixtures with surface pressures ranging from 10 bar (with 10 ppm CO2) to 0.1 bar (pure CO2). A Venus-analogue atmosphere with sulfuric acid clouds is also disfavoured at 2.6 sigma confidence. Thinner atmospheres or bare-rock surfaces are consistent with our measured planet-to-star flux ratio. The absence of a thick, CO2-rich atmosphere on TRAPPIST-1 c suggests a relatively volatile-poor formation history, with less than 9.5 +7.5 -2.3 Earth oceans of water. If all planets in the system formed in the same way, this would indicate a limited reservoir of volatiles for the potentially habitable planets in the system.

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Photochemical hazes dramatically alter temperature structure and atmospheric circulation in 3D simulations of hot Jupiters

Photochemical hazes are expected to form in hot Jupiter atmospheres and may explain the strong scattering slopes and muted spectral features observed in the transmission spectra of many hot Jupiters. Absorption and scattering by photochemical hazes have the potential to drastically alter temperature structure and atmospheric circulation of these planets but have previously been neglected in general circulation models (GCMs). We present GCM simulations of hot Jupiter HD 189733b that include photochemical hazes as a radiatively active tracer fully coupled to atmospheric dynamics. The influence of haze radiative feedback strongly depends on the assumed haze optical properties. For soot hazes, two distinct thermal inversions form, separated by a local temperature minimum around 10$^{-5}$ bar caused by upwelling on the dayside mixing air with low haze abundance upwards. The equatorial jet broadens and slows down. The horizontal distribution of hazes remains relatively similar to simulations with radiatively passive tracers. For Titan-type hazes, the equatorial jet accelerates and extends to much lower pressures, resulting in a dramatically different 3D distribution of hazes compared to radiatively passive or soot hazes. Further experimental and observational studies to constrain the optical properties of photochemical hazes will therefore be crucial for understanding the role of hazes in exoplanet atmospheres. In the dayside emission spectrum, for both types of hazes the amplitude of near-infrared features is reduced, while the emitted flux at longer wavelengths ($>$4 $μ$m) increases. Haze radiative feedback leads to increased phase curve amplitudes in many infrared wavelength regions, mostly due to stronger dayside emission.

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Detection of carbon monoxide's 4.6 micron fundamental band structure in WASP-39b's atmosphere with JWST NIRSpec G395H

Carbon monoxide (CO) is predicted to be the dominant carbon-bearing molecule in giant planet atmospheres, and, along with water, is important for discerning the oxygen and therefore carbon-to-oxygen ratio of these planets. The fundamental absorption mode of CO has a broad double-branched structure composed of many individual absorption lines from 4.3 to 5.1 $\mathrmμ$m, which can now be spectroscopically measured with JWST. Here we present a technique for detecting the rotational sub-band structure of CO at medium resolution with the NIRSpec G395H instrument. We use a single transit observation of the hot Jupiter WASP-39b from the JWST Transiting Exoplanet Community Early Release Science (JTEC ERS) program at the native resolution of the instrument ($R \,{\sim} 2700$) to resolve the CO absorption structure. We robustly detect absorption by CO, with an increase in transit depth of 264 $\pm$ 68 ppm, in agreement with the predicted CO contribution from the best-fit model at low resolution. This detection confirms our theoretical expectations that CO is the dominant carbon-bearing molecule in WASP-39b's atmosphere, and further supports the conclusions of low C/O and super-solar metallicities presented in the JTEC ERS papers for WASP-39b.

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Photochemically-produced SO$_2$ in the atmosphere of WASP-39b

Photochemistry is a fundamental process of planetary atmospheres that regulates the atmospheric composition and stability. However, no unambiguous photochemical products have been detected in exoplanet atmospheres to date. Recent observations from the JWST Transiting Exoplanet Early Release Science Program found a spectral absorption feature at 4.05 $μ$m arising from SO$_2$ in the atmosphere of WASP-39b. WASP-39b is a 1.27-Jupiter-radii, Saturn-mass (0.28 M$_J$) gas giant exoplanet orbiting a Sun-like star with an equilibrium temperature of $\sim$1100 K. The most plausible way of generating SO$_2$ in such an atmosphere is through photochemical processes. Here we show that the SO$_2$ distribution computed by a suite of photochemical models robustly explains the 4.05 $μ$m spectral feature identified by JWST transmission observations with NIRSpec PRISM (2.7$σ$) and G395H (4.5$σ$). SO$_2$ is produced by successive oxidation of sulphur radicals freed when hydrogen sulphide (H$_2$S) is destroyed. The sensitivity of the SO$_2$ feature to the enrichment of the atmosphere by heavy elements (metallicity) suggests that it can be used as a tracer of atmospheric properties, with WASP-39b exhibiting an inferred metallicity of $\sim$10$\times$ solar. We further point out that SO$_2$ also shows observable features at ultraviolet and thermal infrared wavelengths not available from the existing observations.

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A broadband thermal emission spectrum of the ultra-hot Jupiter WASP-18b

Close-in giant exoplanets with temperatures greater than 2,000 K (''ultra-hot Jupiters'') have been the subject of extensive efforts to determine their atmospheric properties using thermal emission measurements from the Hubble and Spitzer Space Telescopes. However, previous studies have yielded inconsistent results because the small sizes of the spectral features and the limited information content of the data resulted in high sensitivity to the varying assumptions made in the treatment of instrument systematics and the atmospheric retrieval analysis. Here we present a dayside thermal emission spectrum of the ultra-hot Jupiter WASP-18b obtained with the NIRISS instrument on JWST. The data span 0.85 to 2.85 $μ$m in wavelength at an average resolving power of 400 and exhibit minimal systematics. The spectrum shows three water emission features (at $>$6$σ$ confidence) and evidence for optical opacity, possibly due to H$^-$, TiO, and VO (combined significance of 3.8$σ$). Models that fit the data require a thermal inversion, molecular dissociation as predicted by chemical equilibrium, a solar heavy element abundance (''metallicity'', M/H = 1.03$_{-0.51}^{+1.11}$ $\times$ solar), and a carbon-to-oxygen (C/O) ratio less than unity. The data also yield a dayside brightness temperature map, which shows a peak in temperature near the sub-stellar point that decreases steeply and symmetrically with longitude toward the terminators.

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The GRAVITY+ Project: Towards All-sky, Faint-Science, High-Contrast Near-Infrared Interferometry at the VLTI

The GRAVITY instrument has been revolutionary for near-infrared interferometry by pushing sensitivity and precision to previously unknown limits. With the upgrade of GRAVITY and the Very Large Telescope Interferometer (VLTI) in GRAVITY+, these limits will be pushed even further, with vastly improved sky coverage, as well as faint-science and high-contrast capabilities. This upgrade includes the implementation of wide-field off-axis fringe-tracking, new adaptive optics systems on all Unit Telescopes, and laser guide stars in an upgraded facility. GRAVITY+ will open up the sky to the measurement of black hole masses across cosmic time in hundreds of active galactic nuclei, use the faint stars in the Galactic centre to probe General Relativity, and enable the characterisation of dozens of young exoplanets to study their formation, bearing the promise of another scientific revolution to come at the VLTI.

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A First Look at the JWST MIRI/LRS Phase Curve of WASP-43b

We observed a full-orbit phase curve of the hot Jupiter WASP-43b with MIRI/LRS as part of the Transiting Exoplanet Community Early Release Science Program. Here we report preliminary findings for the instrument performance from the team's MIRI Working Group. Overall we find that MIRI's performance for phase curve observations is excellent, with a few minor caveats. The key takeaways for Cycle 2 planning with MIRI/LRS are: (1) long-duration observations (> 24 hours) have now been successfully executed; (2) for phase curves, we recommend including a one-hour burn-in period prior to taking science data to mitigate the effects of the ramp systematic; and (3) we do not yet recommend partial phase curve observations. In addition, we also find that: the position of the spectrum on the detector is stable to within 0.03 pixels over the full 26.5-hour observation; the light curves typically show a systematic downward ramp that is strongest for the first 30 minutes, but continues to decay for hours; from 10.6-11.8 microns, the ramp effect has remarkably different behavior, possibly due to a different illumination history for the affected region of the detector; after trimming the integrations most affected by the initial ramps and correcting the remaining systematics with analytic models, we obtain residuals to the light-curve fits that are typically within 25% of the photon noise limit for 0.5-micron spectroscopic bins; non-linearity correction is not a significant source of additional noise for WASP-43, though it may be an issue for brighter targets; the gain value of 5.5 electrons/DN currently on CRDS and JDox is known to be incorrect, and the current best estimate for the gain is approximately 3.1 electrons/DN; new reference files for the JWST calibration pipeline reflecting these findings are under development at STScI.

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Eureka!: An End-to-End Pipeline for JWST Time-Series Observations

$\texttt{Eureka!}$ is a data reduction and analysis pipeline for exoplanet time-series observations, with a particular focus on JWST data. Over the next 1-2 decades, JWST will pursue four main science themes: Early Universe, Galaxies Over Time, Star Lifecycle, and Other Worlds. Our focus is on providing the astronomy community with an open source tool for the reduction and analysis of time-series observations of exoplanets in pursuit of the fourth of these themes, Other Worlds. The goal of $\texttt{Eureka!}$ is to provide an end-to-end pipeline that starts with uncalibrated FITS files and ultimately yields precise exoplanet spectra. The pipeline has a modular structure with six stages, and each stage uses a "Eureka! Control File" (ECF) to allow for easy control of the pipeline's behavior. Stage 5 also uses a "Eureka! Parameter File" (EPF) to control the fitted parameters. We provide template ECFs for the MIRI, NIRCam, NIRISS, and NIRSpec instruments on JWST and the WFC3 instrument on the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). These templates give users a good starting point for their analyses, but $\texttt{Eureka!}$ is not intended to be used as a black box tool, and users should expect to fine-tune some settings for each observation in order to achieve optimal results. At each stage, the pipeline creates intermediate figures and outputs that allow users to compare $\texttt{Eureka!}$'s performance using different parameter settings or to compare $\texttt{Eureka!}$ with an independent pipeline. The ECF used to run each stage is also copied into the output folder from each stage to enhance reproducibility. Finally, while $\texttt{Eureka!}$ has been optimized for exoplanet observations (especially the latter stages of the code), much of the core functionality could also be repurposed for JWST time-series observations in other research domains thanks to $\texttt{Eureka!}$'s modularity.

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PACMAN: A pipeline to reduce and analyze Hubble Wide Field Camera 3 IR Grism data

Here we present PACMAN, an end-to-end pipeline developed to reduce and analyze HST/WFC3 data. The pipeline includes both spectral extraction and light curve fitting. The foundation of PACMAN has been already used in numerous publications (e.g., Kreidberg et al., 2014; Kreidberg et al., 2018) and these papers have already accumulated hundreds of citations. The Hubble Space Telescope (HST) has become the preeminent workhorse facility for the characterization of extrasolar planets. HST currently has two of the most powerful space-based tools for characterizing exoplanets over a broad spectral range: The Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph (STIS) in the UV and the Wide Field Camera 3 (WFC3) in the Near Infrared. With the introduction of a spatial scan mode on WFC3 where the star moves perpendicular to the dispersion direction during an exposure, WFC3 observations have become very efficient due to the reduction of overhead time and the possibility of longer exposures without saturation. For exoplanet characterization, WFC3 is used for transit and secondary eclipse spectroscopy, and phase curve observations. The instrument has two different grisms: G102 with a spectral range from 800 nm to up to 1150 nm and G141 encompassing 1075 nm to about 1700 nm. The spectral range of WFC3/G141 is primarily sensitive to molecular absorption from water at approximately 1.4 microns. This led to the successful detection of water in the atmosphere of over a dozen of exoplanets. The bluer part of WFC3, the G102 grism, is also sensitive to water and most notably led to the first detection of a helium exosphere.

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Hubble Space Telescope transmission spectroscopy for the temperate sub-Neptune TOI-270d: a possible hydrogen-rich atmosphere containing water vapour

TOI-270d is a temperate sub-Neptune discovered by the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) around a bright (J=9.1mag) M3V host star. With an approximate radius of 2RE and equilibrium temperature of 350K, TOI-270d is one of the most promising small exoplanets for atmospheric characterisation using transit spectroscopy. Here we present a primary transit observation of TOI-270d made with the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) Wide Field Camera 3 (WFC3) spectrograph across the 1.126-1.644 micron wavelength range, and a 95% credible upper limit of $8.2 \times 10^{-14}$ erg s$^{-1}$ cm$^{-2}$ A$^{-1}$ arcsec$^{-2}$ for the stellar Ly-alpha emission obtained using the Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph (STIS). The transmission spectrum derived from the TESS and WFC3 data provides evidence for molecular absorption by a hydrogen-rich atmosphere at 4-sigma significance relative to a featureless spectrum. The strongest evidence for any individual absorber is obtained for H2O, which is favoured at 3-sigma significance. When retrieving on the WFC3 data alone and allowing for the possibility of a heterogeneous stellar brightness profile, the detection significance of H2O is reduced to 2.8-sigma. Further observations are therefore required to robustly determine the atmospheric composition of TOI-270d and assess the impact of stellar heterogeneity. If confirmed, our findings would make TOI-270d one of the smallest and coolest exoplanets to date with detected atmospheric spectral features.

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Is the hot, dense sub-Neptune TOI-824b an exposed Neptune mantle? Spitzer detection of the hot day side and reanalysis of the interior composition

The Kepler and TESS missions revealed a remarkable abundance of sub-Neptune exoplanets. Despite this abundance, our understanding of the nature and compositional diversity of sub-Neptunes remains limited, to a large part because atmospheric studies via transmission spectroscopy almost exclusively aimed for low-density sub-Neptunes and even those were often affected by high-altitude clouds. The recent TESS discovery of the hot, dense TOI-824b ($2.93\,R_\oplus$ and $18.47\,M_\oplus$) opens a new window into sub-Neptune science by enabling the study of a dense sub-Neptune via secondary eclipses. Here, we present the detection of TOI-824b's hot day side via Spitzer secondary eclipse observations in the $3.6$ and $4.5\,\mathrm{μm}$ channels, combined with a reanalysis of its interior composition. The measured eclipse depths (142$^{+57}_{-52}$ and 245$^{+75}_{-77}$ ppm) and brightness temperatures (1463$^{+183}_{-196}$ and 1484$^{+180}_{-202}$ K) indicate a poor heat redistribution ($f>$ 0.49) and a low Bond albedo (A$_{B}<$ 0.26). We conclude that TOI-824b could be an "exposed Neptune mantle": a planet with a Neptune-like water-rich interior that never accreted a hydrogen envelope or that subsequently lost it. The hot day-side temperature is then naturally explained by a high-metallicity envelope re-emitting the bulk of the incoming radiation from the day side. TOI-824b's density is also consistent with a massive rocky core that accreted up to 1% of hydrogen, but the observed eclipse depths favor our high-metallicity GCM simulation to a solar-metallicity GCM simulation with a likelihood ratio of 7:1. The new insights into TOI-824b's nature suggest that the sub-Neptune population may be more diverse than previously thought, with some of the dense hot sub-Neptunes potentially not hosting a hydrogen-rich envelope as generally assumed for sub-Neptunes.

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Early Release Science of the exoplanet WASP-39b with JWST NIRCam

Measuring the metallicity and carbon-to-oxygen (C/O) ratio in exoplanet atmospheres is a fundamental step towards constraining the dominant chemical processes at work and, if in equilibrium, revealing planet formation histories. Transmission spectroscopy provides the necessary means by constraining the abundances of oxygen- and carbon-bearing species; however, this requires broad wavelength coverage, moderate spectral resolution, and high precision that, together, are not achievable with previous observatories. Now that JWST has commenced science operations, we are able to observe exoplanets at previously uncharted wavelengths and spectral resolutions. Here we report time-series observations of the transiting exoplanet WASP-39b using JWST's Near InfraRed Camera (NIRCam). The long-wavelength spectroscopic and short-wavelength photometric light curves span 2.0 - 4.0 $μ$m, exhibit minimal systematics, and reveal well-defined molecular absorption features in the planet's spectrum. Specifically, we detect gaseous H$_2$O in the atmosphere and place an upper limit on the abundance of CH$_4$. The otherwise prominent CO$_2$ feature at 2.8 $μ$m is largely masked by H$_2$O. The best-fit chemical equilibrium models favour an atmospheric metallicity of 1-100$\times$ solar (i.e., an enrichment of elements heavier than helium relative to the Sun) and a sub-stellar carbon-to-oxygen (C/O) ratio. The inferred high metallicity and low C/O ratio may indicate significant accretion of solid materials during planet formation or disequilibrium processes in the upper atmosphere.

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Early Release Science of the Exoplanet WASP-39b with JWST NIRSpec G395H

Measuring the abundances of carbon and oxygen in exoplanet atmospheres is considered a crucial avenue for unlocking the formation and evolution of exoplanetary systems. Access to an exoplanet's chemical inventory requires high-precision observations, often inferred from individual molecular detections with low-resolution space-based and high-resolution ground-based facilities. Here we report the medium-resolution (R$\sim$600) transmission spectrum of an exoplanet atmosphere between 3-5 $μ$m covering multiple absorption features for the Saturn-mass exoplanet WASP-39b, obtained with JWST NIRSpec G395H. Our observations achieve 1.46x photon precision, providing an average transit depth uncertainty of 221 ppm per spectroscopic bin, and present minimal impacts from systematic effects. We detect significant absorption from CO$_2$ (28.5$σ$) and H$_2$O (21.5$σ$), and identify SO$_2$ as the source of absorption at 4.1 $μ$m (4.8$σ$). Best-fit atmospheric models range between 3 and 10x solar metallicity, with sub-solar to solar C/O ratios. These results, including the detection of SO$_2$, underscore the importance of characterising the chemistry in exoplanet atmospheres, and showcase NIRSpec G395H as an excellent mode for time series observations over this critical wavelength range.

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Early Release Science of the exoplanet WASP-39b with JWST NIRISS

Transmission spectroscopy provides insight into the atmospheric properties and consequently the formation history, physics, and chemistry of transiting exoplanets. However, obtaining precise inferences of atmospheric properties from transmission spectra requires simultaneously measuring the strength and shape of multiple spectral absorption features from a wide range of chemical species. This has been challenging given the precision and wavelength coverage of previous observatories. Here, we present the transmission spectrum of the Saturn-mass exoplanet WASP-39b obtained using the SOSS mode of the NIRISS instrument on the JWST. This spectrum spans $0.6 - 2.8 μ$m in wavelength and reveals multiple water absorption bands, the potassium resonance doublet, as well as signatures of clouds. The precision and broad wavelength coverage of NIRISS-SOSS allows us to break model degeneracies between cloud properties and the atmospheric composition of WASP-39b, favoring a heavy element enhancement ("metallicity") of $\sim 10 - 30 \times$ the solar value, a sub-solar carbon-to-oxygen (C/O) ratio, and a solar-to-super-solar potassium-to-oxygen (K/O) ratio. The observations are best explained by wavelength-dependent, non-gray clouds with inhomogeneous coverage of the planet's terminator.

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More Evidence for Variable Helium Absorption from HD 189733b

We present a new Keck/NIRSPEC observation of metastable helium absorption from the upper atmosphere of HD 189733b, a hot Jupiter orbiting a nearby moderately active star. We measure an average helium transit depth of $0.420 \pm 0.013$% integrated over the [-20, 20] km/s velocity range. Comparing this measurement to eight previously published transit observations with different instruments, we find that our depth is 32% (9$σ$) lower than the average of the three CARMENES transits, but only 16% (4.4$σ$) lower than the average of the five GIANO transits. We perform 1D hydrodynamical simulations of the outflow, and find that XUV variability on the order of 33%--common for this star--can change the helium absorption depth by 60%. We conclude that changes in stellar XUV flux can explain the observational variability in helium absorption. 3D models are necessary to explore other sources of variability, such as shear instability and changing stellar wind conditions.

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