arXiv subjects

Laurence Perreault-Levasseur

Publications and source records attributed to Laurence Perreault-Levasseur.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Microcaustics: Fast GPU-Accelerated Dynamical Microlensing of Time-Dependent Extended Sources

Gravitational microlensing probes unresolved quasar accretion disc structure and compact objects in lens galaxies and is an important systematic in strong-lens time-delay cosmography. Most analyses use static microlensing map simulations because evolving individual microlenses and caustics is computationally prohibitive. We present Microcaustics, a GPU-accelerated Python package built on PyTorch for dynamical microlensing of time-dependent extended sources in strong gravitational lenses. It combines a local-exact/far-field deflection solver, source-directed lens-plane scouting with temporal reuse, and biquadratic inverse polygon mapping (IPM). GPU batching and fused Triton rasterization accelerate the calculation, while binary caustic labels track source-centred crossings. Across three simulated quadruply lensed quasar systems, our package generates a 10-year, 147-frame multiband light curve in an amortized median of 0.68 s (0.88 s with labels) on a consumer GPU with a median light-curve RMSE of 0.35 mmag, while recovering every reference source-centred caustic crossing. At comparable map accuracy, the batched throughput is 780 times higher than that of a recent CUDA IPM implementation and extrapolates to a speedup of millions relative to classic GPU-D. We demonstrate that our IPM converges as $N_{\rm ray}^{-0.84}$, approaching the idealized $N_{\rm ray}^{-1}$ convergence rate of piecewise-affine IPM and improving upon the $N_{\rm ray}^{-1/2}$ inverse ray-shooting rate. We also introduce a GPU-resident general relativistic and reverberating quasar source model and demonstrate our method with an evolving supernova source. These advances make fully dynamical stellar fields practical for Bayesian and simulation-based inference.

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arXiv2026

Cool Embeddings: Predicting Galaxy Cluster Cooling Times in IllustrisTNG and TNG-Cluster with AstroCLIP

Foundation models trained on optical astronomical data have not previously been applied to X-ray cluster thermodynamics. We show that embeddings from AstroCLIP, a contrastive vision-language model trained on optical galaxy images and spectra, retain physically meaningful structure when applied to mock Chandra X-ray images of simulated galaxy clusters - a significant shift in observational modality and physical scale. We target the central cooling time ($t_{\mathrm{cool},0}$) of the intracluster medium, a key diagnostic of cluster thermodynamics traditionally requiring X-ray spectroscopy. We present a machine learning framework that predicts $t_{\mathrm{cool},0}$ directly from X-ray images, applied to 711 projections from TNG300 and 993 from TNG-Cluster from the IllustrisTNG simulations. AstroCLIP embeddings form a structured latent space in which clusters with similar thermodynamic properties are naturally grouped, with no equivalent separation by halo mass. Building on this, we introduce a dot-product $k$-nearest neighbour attention model that retrieves similar clusters from the training set and adaptively reweights their cooling times. This model achieves root-mean-square errors of 0.24 (TNG300) and 0.23 (TNG-Cluster) in $\log(t_{\mathrm{cool},0})$, and demonstrates strong out-of-distribution generalisation, outperforming a fine-tuned convolutional neural network trained on raw images (RMSE 0.50 versus 0.73). These results demonstrate that pretrained foundation model embeddings transfer across astrophysical domains and encode thermodynamic information sufficient for inference of cluster cooling properties - offering a scalable path toward cool-core characterisation in all-sky surveys such as eROSITA.

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arXiv2026

PQMass: Probabilistic Assessment of the Quality of Generative Models using Probability Mass Estimation

We propose a likelihood-free method for comparing two distributions given samples from each, with the goal of assessing the quality of generative models. The proposed approach, PQMass, provides a statistically rigorous method for assessing the performance of a single generative model or the comparison of multiple competing models. PQMass divides the sample space into non-overlapping regions and applies chi-squared tests to the number of data samples that fall within each region, giving a p-value that measures the probability that the bin counts derived from two sets of samples are drawn from the same multinomial distribution. PQMass does not depend on assumptions regarding the density of the true distribution, nor does it rely on training or fitting any auxiliary models. We evaluate PQMass on data of various modalities and dimensions, demonstrating its effectiveness in assessing the quality, novelty, and diversity of generated samples. We further show that PQMass scales well to moderately high-dimensional data and thus obviates the need for feature extraction in practical applications.

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arXiv2026

LSST Strong Lensing Systems Dark Matter Sensitivity Analysis with Neural Ratio Estimators

Strong gravitational lensing offers a unique probe of dark matter (DM) on sub-galactic scales, where the abundance and distribution of low-mass halos are highly sensitive to the underlying properties of DM particles. In this work, we forecast LSST's sensitivity to DM substructure in galaxy-galaxy strong lenses using simulated samples and neural ratio estimators (NREs). Our simulations include both subhalos within the main deflector and line-of-sight (LOS) halos, with halo masses down to $\sim 10^7 M_\odot$ under the expected LSST ten-year survey imaging quality. We show that the constraining power on halo mass function (HMF) parameters improves significantly with sample size. Analyses based on a few hundred lenses yield broad posteriors comparable with other probes like the Ly-$α$ forest. By contrast, when combining 2500 lenses, $\approx 74\%$ and $\approx 36\%$ of the prior volume considered can be excluded at the $3σ$ and $5σ$ levels respectively, enabling statistically significant exclusions of non-$Λ$CDM scenarios. We further demonstrate that the sensitivity arises not only from the high-mass end of the HMF but also from low-mass halos: masking halos below $\log (m_{\rm halo}/M_\odot) \leq 7.5$ induces a measurable shift in the inferred posteriors. Finally, we find that LOS halos contribute significantly to the constraining power, with increasing importance of LOS halos at higher redshifts. While this analysis assumes perfect knowledge of the data-generating process and cannot be directly applied to data analysis, it quantifies constraints achievable with LSST alone and motivates the development of robust inference methods for real survey data.

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arXiv2026

Microlensing Detection and Inference via Learned Bayes Factors

We present a unified framework for gravitational microlensing event detection and parameter inference. Traditional pipelines use deterministic hard cuts on photometric statistics, systematically missing low-magnification events in the finite-source regime. We instead frame detection as Bayesian model comparison using Evidence Networks, which learn calibrated Bayes factors from binary-labeled simulations, and combine this with Neural Posterior Estimation (NPE) for amortized parameter inference. Both share a transformer encoder that handles irregularly-sampled time series without imputation. On simulated Roman Space Telescope data, our Evidence Network achieves $99.9\%$ detection efficiency with a false-positive rate below $6\times10^{-4}$ on simulated data with augmentation and noise, but no astrophysical confounders. Gains are most dramatic in the extreme finite-source regime ($ρ\gtrsim 5$), where detection rates reach ${\sim}95\%$ versus ${\sim}65\%$ for hard cuts, precisely the short-duration free-floating planet events most constraining for formation scenarios. Our NPE provides calibrated posteriors, working towards real-time analysis at survey scale.

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arXiv2026

Strong Gravitational Lensing Posterior Sampling in Pixel-Space Using Diffusion Models and Recurrent Inference Machines

Modeling galaxy-galaxy strong gravitational lenses to infer the brightness of the source galaxy and the mass distribution of the foreground galaxy is computationally challenging, particularly for high-resolution, high signal-to-noise ratio observations. In this regime, high-dimensional representations of both the source and the foreground mass distribution are necessary to model the data down to the noise level. This inference problem has been challenging for both traditional and machine learning-based methods because of its high dimensionality and its non-linearity in the foreground mass distribution. We present a method to generate joint posterior samples of the source galaxy and foreground mass distribution as pixelated images conditioned on observations. The method combines diffusion-based generative modeling and recurrent inference machines. It can model realistic gravitational lensing simulations with background and foreground galaxies drawn from cosmological hydrodynamical simulations down to the noise level.

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arXiv2026

Towards Practical Field-Level Inference for Weak Lensing

Nonlinear structure growth generates higher-order correlations and morphological features in the cosmic density field that cannot be fully characterized by two-point statistics. Upcoming surveys will measure these features with greater precision, making it essential to develop methods capable of extracting as much cosmological information as possible from them. Field-level inference (FLI) is one such approach, in which cosmological parameters are constrained by comparing observed maps to forward-modeled maps, either directly or through learned summaries that retain map-level information. In this work, we compare FLI with power-spectrum-based inference using the same forward-modeling pipeline for generating weak lensing maps, with the goal of quantifying the gain from map-level analysis relative to two-point statistics. We perform this comparison with both implicit and explicit inference methods, using 8-million-parameter forward models based on Lagrangian perturbation theory and particle-mesh (PM) N-body evolution. The two FLI approaches yield closely consistent posteriors; this agreement, together with coverage tests confirming the calibration of the implicit analyses, gives us confidence in the recovered field-level constraints. Relative to the power-spectrum-based analyses, these results show significant gains in cosmological information, especially when small scales are included in the PM-based forward model. We then discuss the remaining challenges that must be addressed before PM-based explicit FLI can be applied to observational datasets.

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arXiv2026

MIRA: A Score for Conditional Distribution Accuracy and Model Comparison

We introduce Mira, a sample-based score for assessing the accuracy of a candidate conditional distribution using only joint samples from the true data-generating process. Relying on the principle that distributions coincide if they assign equal probability mass to all regions, we derive an analytic expression for the Mira statistic, whose average defines the Mira score. This formulation further allows us to compute theoretical reference values and uncertainty estimates when the candidate distribution matches the true one. This framework enables model comparison by quantifying the alignment between the conditional distribution of a candidate model and the true data generating process. Consequently, Mira enables Bayesian model comparison through direct posterior validation, bypassing the challenging evidence computation. We demonstrate its effectiveness across several toy problems and Bayesian inference tasks.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

A Fast Generative Framework for High-dimensional Posterior Sampling: Application to CMB Delensing

We introduce a deep generative framework for high-dimensional Bayesian inference that enables efficient posterior sampling. As telescopes and simulations rapidly expand the volume and resolution of astrophysical data, fast simulation-based inference methods are increasingly needed to extract scientific insights. While diffusion-based approaches offer high-quality generative capabilities, they are hindered by slow sampling speeds. Our method performs posterior sampling an order of magnitude faster than a diffusion baseline. Applied to the problem of CMB delensing, it successfully recovers the unlensed CMB power spectrum from simulated observations. The model also remains robust to shifts in cosmological parameters, demonstrating its potential for out-of-distribution generalization and application to observational cosmological data.

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arXiv2026

Opportunities in AI/ML for the Rubin LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration

The Vera C. Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) will produce unprecedented volumes of heterogeneous astronomical data (images, catalogs, and alerts) that challenge traditional analysis pipelines. The LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration (DESC) aims to derive robust constraints on dark energy and dark matter from these data, requiring methods that are statistically powerful, scalable, and operationally reliable. Artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) are already embedded across DESC science workflows, from photometric redshifts and transient classification to weak lensing inference and cosmological simulations. Yet their utility for precision cosmology hinges on trustworthy uncertainty quantification, robustness to covariate shift and model misspecification, and reproducible integration within scientific pipelines. This white paper surveys the current landscape of AI/ML across DESC's primary cosmological probes and cross-cutting analyses, revealing that the same core methodologies and fundamental challenges recur across disparate science cases. Since progress on these cross-cutting challenges would benefit multiple probes simultaneously, we identify key methodological research priorities, including Bayesian inference at scale, physics-informed methods, validation frameworks, and active learning for discovery. With an eye on emerging techniques, we also explore the potential of the latest foundation model methodologies and LLM-driven agentic AI systems to reshape DESC workflows, provided their deployment is coupled with rigorous evaluation and governance. Finally, we discuss critical software, computing, data infrastructure, and human capital requirements for the successful deployment of these new methodologies, and consider associated risks and opportunities for broader coordination with external actors.

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arXiv2025

Transformer Embeddings for Fast Microlensing Inference

The search for free-floating planets (FFPs) is a key science driver for upcoming microlensing surveys like the Nancy Grace Roman Galactic Exoplanet Survey. These rogue worlds are typically detected via short-duration microlensing events, the characterization of which often requires analyzing noisy, irregularly-sampled observations. We present a pipeline for this task using simulation-based inference. We use a Transformer encoder to learn a compressed summary representation of the raw time-series data, which in turn conditions a neural posterior estimator. We demonstrate that our method produces accurate and well-calibrated posteriors over three orders of magnitude faster than traditional methods. We also demonstrate its performance on KMT-BLG-2019-2073, a short-duration FFP candidate event.

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arXiv2025

Neural Deprojection of Galaxy Stellar Mass Profiles

We introduce a neural approach to dynamical modeling of galaxies that replaces traditional imaging-based deprojections with a differentiable mapping. Specifically, we train a neural network to translate Nuker profile parameters into analytically deprojectable Multi Gaussian Expansion components, enabling physically realistic stellar mass models without requiring optical observations. We integrate this model into SuperMAGE, a differentiable dynamical modelling pipeline for Bayesian inference of supermassive black hole masses. Applied to ALMA data, our approach finds results consistent with state-of-the-art models while extending applicability to dust-obscured and active galaxies where optical data analysis is challenging.

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arXiv2025

Mind the Information Gap: Unveiling Detailed Morphologies of z 0.5-1.0 Galaxies with SLACS Strong Lenses and Data-Driven Analysis

We present new state-of-the-art lens models for strong gravitational lensing systems from the Sloan Lens ACS (SLACS) survey, developed within a Bayesian framework that employs high-dimensional (pixellated), data-driven priors for the background source, foreground lens light, and point-spread function (PSF). Unlike conventional methods, our approach delivers high-resolution reconstructions of all major physical components of the lensing system and substantially reduces model-data residuals compared to previous work. For the majority of 30 lensing systems analyzed, we also provide posterior samples capturing the full uncertainty of each physical model parameter. The reconstructions of the background sources reveal high significance morphological structures as small as 200 parsecs in galaxies at redshifts of z 0.5-1.0, demonstrating the power of strong lensing and the analysis method to be used as a cosmic telescope to study the high redshift universe. This study marks the first application of data-driven generative priors to modeling real strong-lensing data and establishes a new benchmark for strong lensing precision modeling in the era of large-scale imaging surveys.

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arXiv2025

Robustness of Neural Ratio and Posterior Estimators to Distributional Shifts for Population-Level Dark Matter Analysis in Strong Gravitational Lensing

We investigate the robustness of Neural Ratio Estimators (NREs) and Neural Posterior Estimators (NPEs) to distributional shifts in the context of measuring the abundance of dark matter subhalos using strong gravitational lensing data. While these data-driven inference frameworks can be accurate on test data from the same distribution as the training sets, in real applications, it is expected that simulated training data and true observational data will differ in their distributions. We explore the behavior of a trained NRE and trained sequential NPEs to estimate the population-level parameters of dark matter subhalos from a large sample of images of strongly lensed galaxies with test data presenting distributional shifts within and beyond the bounds of the training distribution in the nuisance parameters (e.g., the background source morphology). While our results show that NREs and NPEs perform well when tested perfectly in distribution, they exhibit significant biases when confronted with slight deviations from the examples seen in the training distribution. This indicates the necessity for caution when applying NREs and NPEs to real astrophysical data, where high-dimensional underlying distributions are not perfectly known.

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arXiv2025

Blind Strong Gravitational Lensing Inversion: Joint Inference of Source and Lens Mass with Score-Based Models

Score-based models can serve as expressive, data-driven priors for scientific inverse problems. In strong gravitational lensing, they enable posterior inference of a background galaxy from its distorted, multiply-imaged observation. Previous work, however, assumes that the lens mass distribution (and thus the forward operator) is known. We relax this assumption by jointly inferring the source and a parametric lens-mass profile, using a sampler based on GibbsDDRM but operating in continuous time. The resulting reconstructions yield residuals consistent with the observational noise, and the marginal posteriors of the lens parameters recover true values without systematic bias. To our knowledge, this is the first successful demonstration of joint source-and-lens inference with a score-based prior.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2025

Predicting the Subhalo Mass Functions in Simulations from Galaxy Images

Strong gravitational lensing provides a powerful tool to directly infer the dark matter (DM) subhalo mass function (SHMF) in lens galaxies. However, comparing observationally inferred SHMFs to theoretical predictions remains challenging, as the predicted SHMF can vary significantly between galaxies - even within the same cosmological model - due to differences in the properties and environment of individual galaxies. We present a machine learning framework to infer the galaxy-specific predicted SHMF from galaxy images, conditioned on the assumed inverse warm DM particle mass $M^{-1}_{\rm DM}$. To train the model, we use 1024 high-resolution hydrodynamical zoom-in simulations from the DREAMS suite. Mock observations are generated using Synthesizer, excluding gas particle contributions, and SHMFs are computed with the Rockstar halo finder. Our neural network takes as input both the galaxy images and the inverse DM mass. This method enables scalable, image-based predictions for the theoretical DM SHMFs of individual galaxies, facilitating direct comparisons with observational measurements.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2025

The spatially-resolved effect of mergers on the stellar mass assembly of MaNGA galaxies

Understanding the origin of stars within a galaxy - whether formed in-situ or accreted from other galaxies (ex-situ) - is key to constraining its evolution. Spatially resolving these components provides crucial insights into a galaxy's mass assembly history. We aim to predict the spatial distribution of ex-situ stellar mass fraction in MaNGA galaxies, and to identify distinct assembly histories based on the radial gradients of these predictions in the central regions. We employ a diffusion model trained on mock MaNGA analogs (MaNGIA), derived from the TNG50 cosmological simulation. The model learns to predict the posterior distribution of resolved ex-situ stellar mass fraction maps, conditioned on stellar mass density, velocity, and velocity dispersion gradient maps. After validating the model on an unseen test set from MaNGIA, we apply it to MaNGA galaxies to infer the spatially-resolved distribution of their ex-situ stellar mass fractions - i.e. the fraction of stellar mass in each spaxel originating from mergers. We identify four broad categories of ex-situ mass distributions: flat gradient, in-situ dominated; flat gradient, ex-situ dominated; positive gradient; and negative gradient. The vast majority of MaNGA galaxies fall in the first category - flat gradients with low ex-situ fractions - confirming that in-situ star formation is the main assembly driver for low- to intermediate-mass galaxies. At high stellar masses, the ex-situ maps are more diverse, highlighting the key role of mergers in building the most massive systems. Ex-situ mass distributions correlate with morphology, star-formation activity, stellar kinematics, and environment, indicating that accretion history is a primary factor shaping massive galaxies. Finally, by tracing their assembly histories in TNG50, we link each class to distinct merger scenarios, ranging from secular evolution to merger-dominated growth.

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arXiv2025

Field-Level Comparison and Robustness Analysis of Cosmological N-body Simulations

We present the first field-level comparison of cosmological N-body simulations, considering various widely used codes: Abacus, CUBEP$^3$M, Enzo, Gadget, Gizmo, PKDGrav, and Ramses. Unlike previous comparisons focused on summary statistics, we conduct a comprehensive field-level analysis: evaluating statistical similarity, quantifying implications for cosmological parameter inference, and identifying the regimes in which simulations are consistent. We begin with a traditional comparison using the power spectrum, cross-correlation coefficient, and visual inspection of the matter field. We follow this with a statistical out-of-distribution (OOD) analysis to quantify distributional differences between simulations, revealing insights not captured by the traditional metrics. We then perform field-level simulation-based inference (SBI) using convolutional neural networks (CNNs), training on one simulation and testing on others, including a full hydrodynamic simulation for comparison. We identify several causes of OOD behavior and biased inference, finding that resolution effects, such as those arising from adaptive mesh refinement (AMR), have a significant impact. Models trained on non-AMR simulations fail catastrophically when evaluated on AMR simulations, introducing larger biases than those from hydrodynamic effects. Differences in resolution, even when using the same N-body code, likewise lead to biased inference. We attribute these failures to a CNN's sensitivity to small-scale fluctuations, particularly in voids and filaments, and demonstrate that appropriate smoothing brings the simulations into statistical agreement. Our findings motivate the need for careful data filtering and the use of field-level OOD metrics, such as PQMass, to ensure robust inference.

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