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Laurent Hébert-Dufresne

Publications and source records attributed to Laurent Hébert-Dufresne.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
arXiv2026

Fast-variable reduction to complex contagion unifies epidemic models

Across biological and social complex systems, models of epidemics or contagions incorporate complexity through network correlations, adaptive behavior, higher-order interactions, or co-circulating strains. Tracking these mechanisms lead to high-dimensional mathematical systems that resist analytical treatment. We show that a broad class of models admits a systematic reduction via fast-variable elimination. The central insight is that complexity can be captured by fast variables equilibrating much faster than the epidemic, leading to ``emergent complex contagion'' where the force of infection depends on prevalence. The epidemic transition follows a universal equation and is continuous or discontinuous whether the force of infection decays or intensifies with prevalence. Our results reveal diverse epidemic models share a common skeleton such that mechanisms that share a characteristic form can be macroscopically indistinguishable.

physics.soc-ph↗
arXiv2026

Intermittency in Wind-Driven Fires

We construct a wind-driven forest-fire model in one dimension in which a fire can jump gaps between trees to ignite disjoint downwind forests. The size of a gap that a fire can jump depends on the fire intensity, which increases as the fire propagates through trees and diminishes as the fire jumps gaps. Trees grow on empty sites at rate $r$ and lightning strikes each site with rate $f$. When $f\ll r/L$, where $L$ is the system length, lightning is sufficiently rare that quasi-deterministic dynamics arises where all trees are consumed when a lightning-induced fire occurs. For $f\gg L^{-μ}$ with $μ\approx 0.8$, lightning is sufficiently frequent that a steady state is reached, but with unexpected behaviors for the forest- and gap-size distributions. Intermittency arises in between these regimes, with coexisting temporal domains of deterministic and chaotic dynamics.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗
arXiv2026

Emergent contagion complexity: Disentangling mechanistic complexity from correlated heterogeneity

Simple and complex contagions differ mechanistically; multiple exposures act synergistically in the latter but independently in the former. Yet correlated mixtures of simple contagions may appear complex when inferring global contagion rules, a phenomenon we call "emergent complexity." We present a measure of contagion complexity and an inferential framework for estimating mixtures of nonparametric contagion rules from time-series data. Our work reframes past studies on complex contagion by offering heterogeneous mixtures of simple contagions as an alternative explanation.

physics.soc-ph↗
arXiv2026

Dynastic dynamics: Modelling powerful naming choices with stochastic prestige

The naming choices of powerful rulers encode millennia of cultural, political, and institutional influences. Consequently, the long-term onomastic dynamics within some of the most powerful dynasties cannot be explained by simple mechanisms such as frequency-dependent reinforcement or random name reuse. Here, we propose a minimal model that encapsulates these influences in a single highly stochastic variable, prestige, and assume that name selection is driven by the prestige accumulated by previous rulers bearing the same name within each dynasty. Using an extensive dataset spanning ten dynasties, we show that the model reproduces the pronounced inequalities in name frequencies, the long-term persistence of dominant names, and the abrupt rises in popularity observed in historical records. Our results suggest that the naming traditions of powerful rulers preserve institutional memory through reinforcement while remaining sensitive to rare historical events that can reshape the hierarchy of names across generations.

physics.soc-ph↗
arXiv2026

Loops, not groups: Long cycles are responsible for discontinuous phase transitions in higher-order network contagions

We study a self-consistent approach to introduce higher-order effects in a branching process model of complex contagion on clustered networks. Branching processes operate over an infinite population such that they never circle back and interact with previously exposed parts of the system. This infinite, treelike, structure makes it tricky to account for complex contagion mechanisms such as group effects, peer pressure, or social reinforcement where multiple exposures interact in synergistic ways. Here we present a self-consistent solution that accounts for local group structure and global cycles where the process can feedback on itself. This allows us to distinguish multiple exposures that stem from a single transmission chain, from those occurring at the intersection of different transmission chains. We find that only the latter mechanism can give rise to a discontinuous phase transition in the size of global cascades, which is a defining feature of complex contagions. Group effects alone, without long cycles, produce standard continuous phase transitions.

physics.soc-ph↗
arXiv2026

Artificial collectives of specialists and generalists excel at different tasks

Collective artificial intelligence, where multiple agents work on shared tasks, holds potential to solve expansive problems in fields from medicine to collective governance. But while prescriptive engineering solutions abound, we lack descriptive scientific understanding of artificial collectives, and therefore principles for how to design resource efficient multi-agent systems. Through systematic experiments with optimizing agents, we characterize how agent interpretive abilities, rationality bounds, and task qualities interact to shape collective performance. Agents range from specialists, with narrow interpretive abilities, to generalists, with broad ones. Collectives of specialists correspond to sparse, centralized networks, while collectives of generalists correspond to dense, decentralized ones. We show that interpretive network properties have small performance effects on average (0.07 standard deviations of performance). However, for specific task qualities, these effects are 4.5 times larger (0.33 sd) and can reach much higher for certain task qualities (1.84 sd). This leads collectives of generalists to perform better on tasks that involve generating, choosing, and coordinating, while collectives of specialists with a few generalist mediators perform better on tasks that involve negotiating. Rationality bounds then moderate these relationships. At loose bounds, specialists outperform generalists through more effective sampling of high-dimensional decision spaces. At tight bounds, generalists outperform specialists through better gradient estimation. A fundamental trade-off between performance and convergence speed emerges at moderate bounds. These findings suggest that multi-agent design could benefit from matching interpretive networks to both task demands and agents' computational limits, with implications for the efficiency and energy costs of multi-agent systems.

cs.MA↗
arXiv2026

Defining and classifying models of groups: The social ontology of higher-order networks

In complex systems research, the study of higher-order interactions has exploded in recent years. Researchers have formalized various types of group interactions, such as public goods games, biological contagion, and information broadcasting, showing how higher-order networks can capture group effects more directly than pairwise models. However, equating hyperedges-edges involving more than two agents-with groups can be misleading, as it obscures the polysemous nature of ``group interactions''. For instance, many models of higher-order interactions focus on the internal state of the hyperedge, specifying dynamical rules at the group level. These models often neglect how interactions with external groups can influence behaviors and dynamics within the group. Yet, anthropologists and philosophers remind us that external norms, factors, and forces governing intergroup behavior are essential to defining within-group dynamics. In this paper, we synthesize concepts from social ontology relevant to the emerging physics of higher-order networks. We propose a typology for classifying models of group interactions based on two perspectives. The first focuses on individuals within groups engaging in collective action, where shared agency serves as the binding force. The second adopts a group-first approach, emphasizing institutional facts that extend beyond the specific individuals involved. Building on these perspectives, we introduce four dimensions to classify models of group interactions: persistence, coupling, reducibility, and alignment. For the physics of higher-order networks, we provide a hierarchy of nested mathematical models to explore the complex properties of social groups. We highlight social interactions not yet explored in the literature on higher-order networks and propose future research avenues to foster collaboration between social ontology and the physics of complex systems.

physics.soc-ph↗
arXiv2026

The impact of behavioral homophily and conformity on epidemic spreading in networks with large groups

Understanding how social behavior influences epidemic dynamics has become a central focus in mathematical epidemiology. In particular, \textit{behavioral homophily} (the tendency of individuals to associate with similar others) and \textit{conformity} (the adjustment of individual behavior to group norms) are key mechanisms in shaping transmission patterns. In this work, we investigate the combined impact of these behavioral processes on the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) dynamics on networks with large, densely connected groups, modeled as cliques. Each individual has an intrinsic behavioral preference, but their expressed behavior within a group is modulated by its composition, reflecting conformity dynamics. Using the approximate master equations (AME) framework, we characterize the interplay between behavioral heterogeneity, group structure, and epidemic localization. Our results reveal that behavioral homophily amplifies the effects of conformity in large groups, enabling minority behaviors to persist as well as substantially shifting epidemic thresholds and spreading regimes.

physics.soc-ph↗
arXiv2026

Biomedical Open Source Software: Crucial Packages and Hidden Heroes

Despite the importance of scientific software for research, it is often not formally recognized and rewarded. This is especially true for foundational libraries, which are hidden below packages visible to the users (and thus doubly hidden, since even the packages directly used in research are frequently not visible in the paper). Research stakeholders like funders, infrastructure providers, and other organizations need to understand the complex network of computer programs that contemporary research relies upon. In this work, we use the CZ Software Mentions Dataset to map the upstream dependencies of software used in biomedical papers and find the packages critical to scientific software ecosystems. We propose centrality metrics for the network of software dependencies, analyze three ecosystems (PyPi, CRAN, Bioconductor), and determine the packages with the highest centrality.

cs.SE↗
arXiv2026

Temporal and probabilistic comparisons of epidemic interventions

Forecasting disease spread is a critical tool to help public health officials design and plan public health interventions. However, the expected future state of an epidemic is not necessarily well defined as disease spread is inherently stochastic, contact patterns within a population are heterogeneous, and behaviors change. In this work, we use time-dependent probability generating functions (PGFs) to capture these characteristics by modeling a stochastic branching process of the spread of a disease over a network of contacts in which public health interventions are introduced over time. To achieve this, we define a general transmissibility equation to account for varying transmission rates (e.g. masking), recovery rates (e.g. treatment), contact patterns (e.g. social distancing) and percentage of the population immunized (e.g. vaccination). The resulting framework allows for a temporal and probabilistic analysis of an intervention's impact on disease spread, which match continuous-time stochastic simulations that are much more computationally expensive. To aid policy making, we then define several metrics over which temporal and probabilistic intervention forecasts can be compared: Looking at the expected number of cases and the worst-case scenario over time, as well as the probability of reaching a critical level of cases and of not seeing any improvement following an intervention. Given that epidemics do not always follow their average expected trajectories and that the underlying dynamics can change over time, our work paves the way for more detailed short-term forecasts of disease spread and more informed comparison of intervention strategies.

q-bio.PE↗
arXiv2026

Simpson's paradox explains the ubiquity of nonlinear, threshold, and complex contagions

Complex contagions describe systems where the probability or rate of contagious transmission is a nonlinear function of the exposure to contagious agents. These models were first studied theoretically but have since been used to capture effects such as nonconformism, social reinforcement or peer pressure in empirical data. However, recent studies have shown that local correlations (e.g., group structure or temporal burstiness) and heterogeneity (e.g., diversity of parameters or covariates) can give the illusion of nonlinear effects even when the dynamics is actually linear. We briefly review these studies to inform a new model and explanation for these effective models of complex contagions. We find global threshold dynamics and superlinear complex contagions even in populations where agents are distributed across social groups described solely by linear or even sublinear contagions. This effect can be understood as a manifestation of Simpson's paradox. Incidence data from heterogeneous groups can look superlinear once averaged over all groups, since the sampling of groups represented at high incidence is biased towards those with stronger local transmission. We then define what we call a Simpson's contagion: a contagion process that looks superlinear when observed over an entire population, but is mechanistically linear or even sublinear in all of its subgroups. By exploring these Simpson's contagions over mathematical case studies, our work contributes to the growing body of literature on the ubiquity of threshold and complex contagions as effective models, and our results stress the pitfall of model selection that ignores correlations and heterogeneity in populations.

physics.soc-ph↗
arXiv2026

Taste for Privacy: How Context, Identity, and Lived-Experience Shape Information Sharing Preferences

Privacy preferences are not fixed individual traits, they depend on context and lived experiences. In this study, we analyze 2,912 survey responses from 782 college students collected over seven survey periods during 2023 and 2024. We ask about their usage of social media, the security settings of their accounts, and measure their comfort in sharing personally identifiable information (PII) across 17 different institutional contexts. Compared to past research, we observe a large shift towards private accounts, going from 1/3rd private in 2007 to 2/3rds in 2024, and find that participants' discomfort sharing PII with social media platforms strongly predicts their privacy settings. Beyond social media, we identify a stable ranking of institutional trust, though some institutions, like the police, show high variability reflecting divergent lived experiences. Traditionally marginalized groups and participants having faced adverse childhood experiences show more discomfort with institutions of power, especially in areas where they face greater vulnerability. We argue for context-adaptive privacy settings that recognize institutional relationships and demographic vulnerabilities, moving beyond one-size-fits-all consent frameworks toward contextually appropriate data governance.

cs.CY↗
arXiv2026

Simon's model does not produce Zipf's law: The fundamental rich-get-richer mechanism for any power-law size ranking

Many complex systems are composed of disparate, interacting types of varying sizes: Species abundances in ecosystems, firm sizes in markets, city populations in countries, word counts in language, etc. A longstanding mystery of complex systems is Zipf's law, which is the empirical observation that component size decreases as the inverse of component rank -- $S \propto r^{-1}$ -- and its generalization $S \propto r^{-α}$ for $α\ge 0$. Herbert Simon's 1955 theoretical rich-get-richer mechanism for system growth has prevailed as capturing the essential process. But Simon's analysis is in fact flawed: In the limit of zero innovation, the model leads to a winner-takes-all system with $α\rightarrow \infty$, rather than $α\rightarrow 1$. Here, for pure rich-get-richer systems, we derive the time-dependent innovation rate $ρ_t$ that correctly produces power-law size rankings across all $α\ge 0$. To produce Zipf's law, we uncover that $ρ_t$ must decay as the inverse of the log of the number of types, $1/\ln N$. We then show that our time-dependent innovation rate governs type emergence in any system obeying a power-law size-ranking, independent of the underlying mechanism. We demonstrate agreement between our model's output and word rankings in a collection of famous novels, while Simon's model fails. Going forward, our dynamic innovation rate mechanism provides the fundamental, Drosophila-like model for all rich-get-richer systems.

physics.soc-ph↗
arXiv2026

Group dynamics shape contagion onsets and multistable active phases under collective reinforcement

Group-based reinforcement can induce discontinuous transitions from inactive to active phases in higher-order contagion models. However, these results are typically obtained on static interaction structures or within mean-field approximations that neglect temporal changes in group composition. Here, we show that group dynamics is not a secondary effect but a central aspect that determines the macroscopic transition class of higher-order contagion processes. We develop an analytically tractable approximate master equation model that effectively interpolates between quenched and mean-field limits through a group composition turnover rate. Our results reveal the rich impact of time-varying structures: it can induce discontinuous phase transition, broaden the bistable region, and at the same time promote or suppress contagion near criticality. Moreover, when real-world turnover rates and group-size heterogeneity are taken into account, the system exhibits a qualitatively richer phase diagram with four distinct dynamical phases, combining continuous or discontinuous transitions with localized or delocalized activity. In localized regimes, we uncover multistable active phases with multiple coexisting active states, which are observed in neither the annealed nor the quenched limits, and extend classical absorbing-active bistability. Finally, we demonstrate that the emergence of discontinuous transitions in real-world systems requires stronger nonlinear reinforcement than previously thought, indicating that simulations in static structures can yield qualitatively misleading predictions.

physics.soc-ph↗
arXiv2026

Complete asymptotic type-token relationship for growing complex systems with inverse power-law count rankings

The growth dynamics of complex systems often exhibit statistical regularities involving power-law relationships. For real finite complex systems formed by countable tokens (animals, words) as instances of distinct types (species, dictionary entries), an inverse power-law scaling $S \sim r^{-α}$ between type count $S$ and type rank $r$, widely known as Zipf's law, is widely observed to varying degrees of fidelity. A secondary, summary relationship is Heaps' law, which states that the number of types scales sublinearly with the total number of observed tokens present in a growing system. Here, we propose an idealized model of a growing system that (1) deterministically produces arbitrary inverse power-law count rankings for types, and (2) allows us to determine the exact asymptotics of the type-token relationship. Our argument improves upon and remedies earlier work. We obtain a unified asymptotic expression for all values of $α$, which corrects the special cases of $α= 1$ and $α\gg 1$. Our approach relies solely on the form of count rankings, avoids unnecessary approximations, and does not involve any stochastic mechanisms or sampling processes. We thereby demonstrate that a general type-token relationship arises solely as a consequence of Zipf's law.

physics.soc-ph↗
arXiv2026

Ethical Frameworks for Conducting Social Challenge Studies

Computational social science research, particularly online studies, often involves exposing participants to the adverse phenomenon the researchers aim to study. Examples include presenting conspiracy theories in surveys, exposing systems to hackers, or deploying bots on social media. We refer to these as "social challenge studies," by analogy with medical research, where challenge studies advance vaccine and drug testing but also raise ethical concerns about exposing healthy individuals to risk. Medical challenge studies are guided by established ethical frameworks that regulate how participants are exposed to agents under controlled conditions. In contrast, social challenge studies typically occur with less control and fewer clearly defined ethical guidelines. In this paper, we examine the ethical frameworks developed for medical challenge studies and consider how their principles might inform social research. Our aim is to initiate discussion on formalizing ethical standards for social challenge studies and encourage long-term evaluation of potential harms.

cs.CY↗
arXiv2026

Self-reinforcing cascades: A spreading model for beliefs or products of varying intensity or quality

Models of how things spread often assume that transmission mechanisms are fixed over time. However, social contagions--the spread of ideas, beliefs, innovations--can lose or gain in momentum as they spread: ideas can get reinforced, beliefs strengthened, products refined. We study the impacts of such self-reinforcement mechanisms in cascade dynamics. We use different mathematical modeling techniques to capture the recursive, yet changing nature of the process. We find a critical regime with a range of power-law cascade size distributions with non-universal scaling exponents. This regime clashes with classic models, where criticality requires fine tuning at a precise critical point. Self-reinforced cascades produce critical-like behavior over a wide range of parameters, which may help explain the ubiquity of power-law distributions in empirical social data.

physics.soc-ph↗
arXiv2026

Tracking dynamics of superspreading through contacts, exposures, and transmissions in edge-based network epidemics

Infectious disease superspreading caused by heterogeneity in contact behavior has been observed to be an important determinant of epidemic dynamics and size in both empirical and theoretical settings. However, it has also been observed that the importance of this type of superspreading changes throughout an epidemic, generally in a decreasing manner as infections cascade from individuals with many contacts to those with fewer contacts. We provide an exact mathematical formulation of this phenomenon in strongly-immunizing (SIR) epidemics on static contact networks. Building on the edge-based modeling framework, we construct three metrics to track how superspreading changes through the course of an epidemic, respectively measuring infected nodes' contacts, exposures, and transmissions: (1) the mean degree of infected nodes, (2) the mean number of susceptible neighbors of infected nodes, and (3) the mean number of secondary cases that will be caused by newly infected nodes. We prove results about the behaviors of these metrics, highlighting the fact that their peak times all occur at less than half the time it takes for population-level infection prevalence to peak. This suggests that the importance of superspreading will be low when an epidemic is already near its peak, so contact-based control strategies are best employed as early in an outbreak as possible. We discuss implications for accurately measuring epidemiological parameters from incidence, mobility, contact tracing, and transmission data.

q-bio.PE↗