arXiv subjects

Laurent Pagnier

Publications and source records attributed to Laurent Pagnier.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

A Closed-loop Framework to Discriminate Models Using Optimal Control

Predicting the response of an observed system to a known input is a fruitful first step to accurately control the system's dynamics. Despite the recent advances in fully data-driven algorithms, the most interpretable way to reach this goal is through mechanistic mathematical modeling. Here, we leverage optimal control and propose a closed-loop iterative method to choose among a set of candidate models the one that most accurately predict an observed system. We assume that one has control over an input of the observed system and access to measurements of its response. Our approach is to identify the input control that maximally discriminates the response of the candidate models, allowing us to determine which model is best by comparing such responses with the observed data. We demonstrate our proposed framework in numerical simulations before applying it during an electrophysiology experiment, successfully discriminating between different models for photocurrents produced via opsin dynamics.

math.DS↗

arXiv2026

Accurate Data-Based State Estimation from Power Loads Inference in Electric Power Grids

Accurate state estimation is a crucial requirement for the reliable operation and control of electric power systems. Here, we construct a data-driven, numerical method to infer missing power load values in large-scale power grids. Given partial observations of power demands, the method estimates the operational state using a linear regression algorithm, exploiting statistical correlations within synthetic training datasets. We evaluate the performance of the method on three synthetic transmission grid test systems. Numerical experiments demonstrate the high accuracy achieved by the method in reconstructing missing demand values under various operating conditions. We further apply the method to real data for the transmission power grid of Switzerland. Despite the restricted number of observations in this dataset, the method infers missing power loads rather accurately. Furthermore, Newton-Raphson power flow solutions show that deviations between true and inferred values for power loads result in smaller deviations between true and inferred values for flows on power lines. This ensures that the estimated operational state correctly captures potential line contingencies. Overall, our results indicate that simple data-based regression techniques can provide an efficient and reliable alternative for state estimation in modern power grids.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2026

Real-Time Dynamic N-1 Screening: Identifying High-Risk Lines and Transformers After Common Faults

Power system operators routinely perform N-1 contingency analysis, yet conventional tools provide limited guidance on which lines or transformers deserve heightened attention during fast post-fault transients. In particular, static screening does not reveal whether (1) the same faulted line repeatedly triggers severe downstream overloads, or (2) a specific transformer emerges as vulnerable across many distinct fault scenarios. This paper introduces a real-time dynamic N-1 screening framework that addresses this gap by estimating, for each counterfactual single-phase transmission fault, the probability of transient overcurrent on critical grid elements. The output is an operator-facing dashboard that ranks (a) faulted lines whose outages most frequently lead to dangerous transformer overloads, and (b) transformers that consistently overload across top-risk scenarios, both of which are actionable indicators for real-time situational awareness. The approach models post-fault electromechanical dynamics using a linear stochastic formulation of the swing equations with short-lived, fault-localized uncertainty, and combines analytic transient evaluation with cross-entropy based importance sampling to efficiently estimate rare but high-impact events. All N-1 contingencies are evaluated in parallel with linear computational complexity. The framework is demonstrated on the IEEE 118-bus system, where it reveals latent high-risk lines and transformers that remain invisible under deterministic dynamic or static N-1 analysis. Results show orders-of-magnitude computational speedup relative to brute-force Monte Carlo, enabling practical deployment within real-time operational cycles.

math.OC↗

arXiv2025

Real-Time Stochastic Assessment of Dynamic N-1 Grid Contingencies

Power system operators need tools for rapid, real-time counterfactual assessments of grid security under fast-changing conditions. Traditional N-1 contingency analysis lacks dynamic evaluation, especially of frequency swings from common faults. This paper introduces a real-time dashboard framework to screen dynamic contingencies. It assumes: (a) the grid starts in a balanced state; (b) faults can occur randomly on any transmission line, temporarily de-energizing and then reconnecting it within about one second; and (c) contingencies are flagged if post-fault transients cause line flows to exceed safety thresholds. The key contributions are: (1) Overload Indicator: a system-wide metric quantifying integrated N-1 dynamic risk from a given state; (2) Scalable Fault Evaluation Algorithm: a linear-scaling method to assess dynamic fault impacts without brute-force simulations; and (3) Risk Estimation: a Cross Entropy Adaptive Importance Sampling method estimating the likelihood of low probability by high risk events, e.g. associated with potential transformer over-current. We demonstrate the framework on the Israeli transmission power grid (IG).

math.DS↗

arXiv2024

Physics-Guided Actor-Critic Reinforcement Learning for Swimming in Turbulence

Turbulent diffusion causes particles placed in proximity to separate. We investigate the required swimming efforts to maintain an active particle close to its passively advected counterpart. We explore optimally balancing these efforts by developing a novel physics-informed reinforcement learning strategy and comparing it with prescribed control and physics-agnostic reinforcement learning strategies. Our scheme, coined the actor-physicist, is an adaptation of the actor-critic algorithm in which the neural network parameterized critic is replaced with an analytically derived physical heuristic function, the physicist. We validate the proposed physics-informed reinforcement learning approach through extensive numerical experiments in both synthetic BK and more realistic Arnold-Beltrami-Childress flow environments, demonstrating its superiority in controlling particle dynamics when compared to standard reinforcement learning methods.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2024

System-Wide Emergency Policy for Transitioning from Main to Secondary Fuel

Faced with the complexities of managing natural gas-dependent power system amid the surge of renewable integration and load unpredictability, this study explores strategies for navigating emergency transitions to costlier secondary fuels. Our aim is to develop decision-support tools for operators during such exigencies. We approach the problem through a Markov Decision Process (MDP) framework, accounting for multiple uncertainties. These include the potential for dual-fuel generator failures and operator response during high-pressure situations. Additionally, we consider the finite reserves of primary fuel, governed by gas-flow partial differential equations (PDEs) and constrained by nodal pressure. Other factors include the variability in power forecasts due to renewable generation and the economic impact of compulsory load shedding. For tractability, we address the MDP in a simplified context, replacing it by Markov Processes evaluated against a selection of policies and scenarios for comparison. Our study considers two models for the natural gas system: an over-simplified model tracking linepack and a more nuanced model that accounts for gas flow network heterogeneity. The efficacy of our methods is demonstrated using a realistic model replicating Israel's power-gas infrastructure.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2024

Nontrivial Kron Reduction for Power Grid Dynamics Modeling

The Kron reduction is used in power grid modeling when the analysis can -- supposedly -- be restricted to a subset of nodes. Typically, when one is interested in the phases' dynamics, it is common to reduce the load buses and focus on the generators' behavior. The rationale behind this reduction is that voltage phases at load buses adapt quickly to their neighbors' phases and, at the timescale of generators, they have virtually no dynamics. We show that the dynamics of the Kron-reduced part of a network can have a significant impact on the dynamics of the non-reduced buses. Therefore, Kron reduction should be used with care and, depending on the context, reduced nodes cannot be simply ignored. We demonstrate that the noise in the reduced part can unexpectedly affect the non-reduced part, even under the assumption that nodal disturbances are independent. Therefore, the common assumption that the noise in the non-reduced part is uncorrelated may lead to inaccurate assessments of the grid's behavior. To cope with such shortcomings of the Kron reduction, we show how to properly incorporate the contribution of the reduced buses into the reduced model using the Mori-Zwanzig formalism.

math.DS↗

arXiv2024

Reinforcement Learning Optimizes Power Dispatch in Decentralized Power Grid

Effective frequency control in power grids has become increasingly important with the increasing demand for renewable energy sources. Here, we propose a novel strategy for resolving this challenge using graph convolutional proximal policy optimization (GC-PPO). The GC-PPO method can optimally determine how much power individual buses dispatch to reduce frequency fluctuations across a power grid. We demonstrate its efficacy in controlling disturbances by applying the GC-PPO to the power grid of the UK. The performance of GC-PPO is outstanding compared to the classical methods. This result highlights the promising role of GC-PPO in enhancing the stability and reliability of power systems by switching lines or decentralizing grid topology.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2024

Differentiable Simulator For Dynamic & Stochastic Optimal Gas & Power Flows

In many power systems, particularly those isolated from larger intercontinental grids, operational dependence on natural gas becomes pivotal, especially during fluctuations or unavailability of renewables coupled with uncertain consumption patterns. Efficient orchestration and inventive strategies are imperative for the smooth functioning of these standalone gas-grid systems. This paper delves into the challenge of synchronized dynamic and stochastic optimization for independent transmission-level gas-grid systems. Our approach's novelty lies in amalgamating the staggered-grid method for the direct assimilation of gas-flow PDEs with an automated sensitivity analysis facilitated by SciML/Julia, further enhanced by an intuitive linkage between gas and power grids via nodal flows. We initiate with a single pipe to establish a versatile and expandable methodology, later showcasing its effectiveness with increasingly intricate examples.

math.OC↗

arXiv2023

Control of Line Pack in Natural Gas System: Balancing Limited Resources under Uncertainty

We build and experiment with a realistic but reduced natural gas model of Israel. The system is unusual because (a) it is controlled from a limited number of points which are at, or close to, the gas extraction sites offshore of Israel's Mediterranean coast; (b) control specifies average flux at inlet, not pressure; (c) there are no inland compressors to regulate pressure; (d) power system is the main consumer of gas (70\% of Israel's power is generated at gas-fired power plants distributed across the country). Nature of the system suggests that a special attention should be given to understanding dynamics driven by fast transients in gas consumption meeting intra-day variations in the electricity demand, and accounting for increasing role of uncertain renewable generation (mainly solar). Based on all of the above we pose and resolve a sequence of dynamic and control challenges, such as: How to time ramping up- and down- injection of gas to guarantee a healthy intra-day line-pack which meets both pressure constraints and gas-extraction patterns? We report simulation results and utilize monotonicity properties of the natural gas flows which render robustness of our conclusions to the uncertainties of the edge withdrawals of gas.

math.DS↗

arXiv2023

A Physics-Informed Machine Learning for Electricity Markets: A NYISO Case Study

This paper addresses the challenge of efficiently solving the optimal power flow problem in real-time electricity markets. The proposed solution, named Physics-Informed Market-Aware Active Set learning OPF (PIMA-AS-OPF), leverages physical constraints and market properties to ensure physical and economic feasibility of market-clearing outcomes. Specifically, PIMA-AS-OPF employs the active set learning technique and expands its capabilities to account for curtailment in load or renewable power generation, which is a common challenge in real-world power systems. The core of PIMA-AS-OPF is a fully-connected neural network that takes the net load and the system topology as input. The outputs of this neural network include active constraints such as saturated generators and transmission lines, as well as non-zero load shedding and wind curtailments. These outputs allow for reducing the original market-clearing optimization to a system of linear equations, which can be solved efficiently and yield both the dispatch decisions and the locational marginal prices (LMPs). The dispatch decisions and LMPs are then tested for their feasibility with respect to the requirements for efficient market-clearing results. The accuracy and scalability of the proposed method is tested on a realistic 1814-bus NYISO system with current and future renewable energy penetration levels.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Towards Model Reduction for Power System Transients with Physics-Informed PDE

This manuscript reports the first step towards building a robust and efficient model reduction methodology to capture transient dynamics in a transmission level electric power system. Such dynamics is normally modeled on seconds-to-tens-of-seconds time scales by the so-called swing equations, which are ordinary differential equations defined on a spatially discrete model of the power grid. Following Seymlyen (1974) and Thorpe, Seyler, and Phadke (1999), we suggest to map the swing equations onto a linear, inhomogeneous Partial Differential Equation (PDE) of parabolic type in two space and one time dimensions with time-independent coefficients and properly defined boundary conditions. We illustrate our method on the synchronous transmission grid of continental Europe. We show that, when properly coarse-grained, i.e., with the PDE coefficients and source terms extracted from a spatial convolution procedure of the respective discrete coefficients in the swing equations, the resulting PDE reproduces faithfully and efficiently the original swing dynamics. We finally discuss future extensions of this work, where the presented PDE-based modeling will initialize a physics-informed machine learning approach for real-time modeling, $n-1$ feasibility assessment and transient stability analysis of power systems.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2022

Locating fast-varying line disturbances with the frequency mismatch

In an attempt to provide an efficient method for line disturbance identification in complex networks of diffusively coupled agents, we recently proposed to leverage the frequency mismatch. The frequency mismatch filters out the intricate combination of interactions induced by the network structure and quantifies to what extent the trajectory of each agent is affected by the disturbance. In this previous work, we provided some analytical evidence of its efficiency when the perturbation is assumed to be slow. In the present work, we claim that the frequency mismatch performs actually well for most disturbance regimes. This is shown through a series of simulations and is backed up by an analytical argument. Therefore, we argue that the frequency mismatch is an efficient and elegant tool for line disturbance location in complex networks of diffusively coupled agents.

nlin.AO↗

arXiv2022

Machine Learning for Electricity Market Clearing

This paper seeks to design a machine learning twin of the optimal power flow (OPF) optimization, which is used in market-clearing procedures by wholesale electricity markets. The motivation for the proposed approach stems from the need to obtain the digital twin, which is much faster than the original, while also being sufficiently accurate and producing consistent generation dispatches and locational marginal prices (LMPs), which are primal and dual solutions of the OPF optimization, respectively. Availability of market-clearing tools based on this approach will enable computationally tractable evaluation of multiple dispatch scenarios under a given unit commitment. Rather than direct solution of OPF, the Karush-Kuhn-Tucker (KKT) conditions for the OPF problem in question may be written, and in parallel the LMPs of generators and loads may be expressed in terms of the OPF Lagrangian multipliers. Also, taking advantage of the practical fact that many of the Lagrangian multipliers associated with lines will be zero (thermal limits are not binding), we build and train an ML scheme which maps flexible resources (loads and renewables) to the binding lines, and supplement it with an efficient power-grid aware linear map to optimal dispatch and LMPs. The scheme is validated and illustrated on IEEE models. We also report a trade of analysis between quality of the reconstruction and number of samples needed to train the model.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2021

Locating line and node disturbances in networks of diffusively coupled dynamical agents

A wide variety of natural and human-made systems consist of a large set of dynamical units coupled into a complex structure. Breakdown of such systems can have a dramatic impact, as in the case of neurons in the brain or lines in an electric grid, to name but a few. Preventing such catastrophic events requires in particular to be able to detect and locate the source of disturbances as fast as possible. We propose a simple method to identify and locate disturbances in networks of coupled dynamical agents, relying only on time series measurements and on the knowledge of the (possibly Kron-reduced) network structure. The strength and the appeal of the present approach lies in its simplicity paired with the ability to precisely locate disturbances and even to differentiate between line and node disturbances. If we have access to measurement at only a subset of nodes, our method is still able to identify the location of the disturbance if the disturbed nodes are measured. If not, we manage to identify the region of the network where the disturbance occurs.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2021

Embedding Power Flow into Machine Learning for Parameter and State Estimation

Modern state and parameter estimations in power systems consist of two stages: the outer problem of minimizing the mismatch between network observation and prediction over the network parameters, and the inner problem of predicting the system state for given values of the parameters. The standard solution of the combined problem is iterative: (a) set the parameters, e.g. to priors on the power line characteristics, (b) map input observation to prediction of the output, (c) compute the mismatch between predicted and observed output, (d) make a gradient descent step in the space of parameters to minimize the mismatch, and loop back to (a). We show how modern Machine Learning (ML), and specifically training guided by automatic differentiation, allows to resolve the iterative loop more efficiently. Moreover, we extend the scheme to the case of incomplete observations, where Phasor Measurement Units (reporting real and reactive powers, voltage and phase) are available only at the generators (PV buses), while loads (PQ buses) report (via SCADA controls) only active and reactive powers. Considering it from the implementation perspective, our methodology of resolving the parameter and state estimation problem can be viewed as embedding of the Power Flow (PF) solver into the training loop of the Machine Learning framework (PyTorch, in this study). We argue that this embedding can help to resolve high-level optimization problems in power system operations and planning.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2021

Physics-Informed Graphical Neural Network for Parameter & State Estimations in Power Systems

Parameter Estimation (PE) and State Estimation (SE) are the most wide-spread tasks in the system engineering. They need to be done automatically, fast and frequently, as measurements arrive. Deep Learning (DL) holds the promise of tackling the challenge, however in so far, as PE and SE in power systems is concerned, (a) DL did not win trust of the system operators because of the lack of the physics of electricity based, interpretations and (b) DL remained illusive in the operational regimes were data is scarce. To address this, we present a hybrid scheme which embeds physics modeling of power systems into Graphical Neural Networks (GNN), therefore empowering system operators with a reliable and explainable real-time predictions which can then be used to control the critical infrastructure. To enable progress towards trustworthy DL for PE and SE, we build a physics-informed method, named Power-GNN, which reconstructs physical, thus interpretable, parameters within Effective Power Flow (EPF) models, such as admittances of effective power lines, and NN parameters, representing implicitly unobserved elements of the system. In our experiments, we test the Power-GNN on different realistic power networks, including these with thousands of loads and hundreds of generators. We show that the Power-GNN outperforms vanilla NN scheme unaware of the EPF physics.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2019

Optimal placement of inertia and primary control : a matrix perturbation theory approach

The increasing penetration of inertialess new renewable energy sources reduces the overall mechanical inertia available in power grids and accordingly raises a number of issues of grid stability over short to medium time scales. It has been suggested that this reduction of overall inertia can be compensated to some extent by the deployment of substitution inertia - synthetic inertia, flywheels or synchronous condensers. Of particular importance is to optimize the placement of the limited available substitution inertia, to mitigate voltage angle and frequency disturbances following a fault such as an abrupt power loss. Performance measures in the form of H2-norms have been recently introduced to evaluate the overall magnitude of such disturbances on an electric power grid. However, despite the mathematical conveniance of these measures, analytical results can be obtained only under rather restrictive assumptions of uniform damping ratio, or homogeneous distribution of inertia and/or primary control in the system. Here, we introduce matrix perturbation theory to obtain analytical results for optimal inertia and primary control placement where both are heterogeneous. Armed with that efficient tool, we construct two simple algorithms that independently determine the optimal geographical distribution of inertia and primary control. These algorithms are then implemented on a model of the synchronous transmission grid of continental Europe. We find that the optimal distribution of inertia is geographically homogeneous but that primary control should be mainly located on the slow modes of the network, where the intrinsic grid dynamics takes more time to damp frequency disturbances.

math.OC↗