arXiv subjects

Lauri Jetsu

Publications and source records attributed to Lauri Jetsu.

10 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Discrete Chi-Square Method discovers solar forcing in El Ni\~no time series: The Pacific Ocean as a bolometer measuring the solar dynamo light curve in real-time

Discrete Chi-square Method (DCM) can detect multiple signals superimposed on an arbitrary trend. DCM's backbone is Gauss-Markov theorem that Least Squares (LS) is the best unbiased estimator for linear regression models. DCM is robust because it computes numerous linear model LS fits. Discrete Fourier Transform and other frequency-domain methods have many application limitations. None of those limitations constrains DCM. Fisher-test provides signal significances and identifies the best DCM model, which is validated by Forecast-test. Simulations verify the Window Dimension Effect (WD-effect): "For any sample window $\Delta T$, DCM inevitably detects the correct $p(t)$ trend and $h(t)$ signal(-s) when sample size $n$ and/or data accuracy $\sigma$ increase". WD-effect "sees through time". DCM's model analytical solution is ill-posed. We present a computational well-posed solution. Mainstream considers El Ni\~no phenomenon chaotic. Usual forecasts are probabilistic, not deterministic. We use El Ni\~no time series to stress-test DCM. It detects the multi-periodic "Big wave" superimposed on global warming trend. This gives accurate El Ni\~no forecasts. Our real-time forecast outperforms those of official agencies. Only solar forcing, not chaotic ocean-atmosphere coupling, can cause the "Big wave" cooling the Pacific Ocean at sunspot minima. The ocean acts like a giant bolometer measuring the deterministic "Solar dynamo light curve". DCM detects multi-periodicity in the ocean and sunspot record. The mainstream stochastic dynamo cannot cause this. Planetary tidal forces may drive solar dynamo. Future El Ni\~no models must integrate astrophysical cycles with chaotic climatological fluid dynamics. Validating our analysis now can save trillions (USD) in El Ni\~no damages.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2023

Do the planets cause the sunspot cycles?

The mainstream dynamo models predict that the sunspot cycle is non-stationary and stochastic. The official Solar Cycle Prediction Panel forecasts only the ongoing sunspot cycle because any forecast beyond one cycle is considered impossible. We analyse the sunspot data using our Discrete Chi-square Method (DCM). This method can detect many periodic signal superimposed on an arbitrary trend. We detect the extremely significant strong 10, 11, and 11.86 years signals. The Discrete Fourier Transform (DFT) cross-check confirms that these signals are certainly real. The interference of the 10 and 11 years signals ca cause the detected long 110 years signal in real data. Long periods or interference can never appear in simulated non-stationary stochastic sunspot data. We detect long periods and interference in the real data. Our deterministic DCM model predictions are more accurate and longer than the official Solar Cycle Prediction Panel forecast. The DCM models can predict the past prolonged activity minima, like the Maunder minimum era, although we do not have data from these periods. We claim that the sunspot data are stationary and multi-periodic, and therefore deterministic. We connect the detected signals to the orbital periods of Mercury, Venus, the Earth and Jupiter. If the planets cause the sunspot cycle, the exoplanets may cause the starspot cycles observed in other chromospherically active stars.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2020

Discrete Chi-square Method for Detecting Many Signals

Unambiguous detection of signals superimposed on unknown trends is difficult for unevenly spaced data. Here, we formulate the Discrete Chi-square Method (DCM) that can determine the best model for many signals superimposed on arbitrary polynomial trends. DCM minimizes the Chi-square for the data in the multi-dimensional tested frequency space. The required number of tested frequency combinations remains manageable, because the method test statistic is symmetric in this tested frequency space. With our known tested constant frequency grid values, the non-linear DCM model becomes linear, and all results become unambiguous. We test DCM with simulated data containing different mixtures of signals and trends. DCM gives unambiguous results, if the signal frequencies are not too close to each other, and none of the signals is too weak. It relies on brute computational force, because all possible free parameter combinations for all reasonable linear models are tested. DCM works like winning a lottery by buying all lottery tickets. Anyone can reproduce all our results with the DCM computer code. All files, variables and other program code related items are printed in magenta colour. Our Appendix gives detailed instructions for using dcm.py. We also present one preliminary real use case, where DCM is applied to the observed (O) minus the computed (C) eclipse epochs of a binary star, XZ And. This DCM analysis reveals evidence for the possible presence of a third and a fourth body in this system. One recent study of a very large sample of binary stars indicated that the probability for detecting a fourth body from the O-C data of eclipsing binaries is only about 0.00005.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2019

Topological changes in the magnetic field of LQ Hya during an activity minimum

Previous studies have related surface temperature maps, obtained with the Doppler imaging (DI) technique, of LQ Hya with long-term photometry. We compare surface magnetic field maps, obtained with the Zeeman Doppler imaging (ZDI) technique, with contemporaneous photometry, with the aim of quantifying the star's magnetic cycle characteristics. We inverted Stokes IV spectropolarimetry into magnetic field and surface brightness maps using a tomographic inversion code that models high signal-to-noise ratio mean line profiles produced by the least squares deconvolution (LSD) technique. The magnetic field and surface brightness maps reveal similar patterns to previous DI and ZDI studies: non-axisymmetric polar magnetic field structure, void of fields at mid-latitudes, and a complex structure in the equatorial regions. There is a weak but clear tendency of the polar structures to be linked with strong radial field and the equatorial ones with the azimuthal. We find a polarity reversal in the radial field between 2016 and 2017 coincident with an activity minimum seen in the long-term photometry. The inverted field strengths cannot easily be related with the observed spottedness, but we find that they are partially connected with the retrieved field complexity. Comparing to global magnetoconvection models for rapidly rotating young Suns, this field topology and dominance of the poloidal field component could be explained by a turbulent dynamo, where differential rotation does not play a major role (so called alpha^2 Omega or alpha^2 dynamos), and axi- and non-axisymmetric modes are excited simultaneously. The complex equatorial magnetic field structure could arise from the twisted (helical) wreaths often seen in these simulations, while the polar feature would be connected to the mostly poloidal non-axisymmetric component having a smooth spatial structure.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2018

Algol as Horus in the Cairo Calendar: the possible means and the motives of the observations

An ancient Egyptian Calendar of Lucky and Unlucky Days, the Cairo Calendar (CC), assigns luck with the period of 2.850 days. Previous astronomical, astrophysical and statistical analyses of CC support the idea that this was the period of the eclipsing binary Algol three millennia ago. However, next to nothing is known about who recorded Algol's period into CC and especially how. Here, we show that the ancient Egyptian scribes had the possible means and the motives for such astronomical observations. Their principles of describing celestial phenomena as activity of gods reveal why Algol received the title of Horus.

physics.hist-ph↗

arXiv2016

Shifting Milestones of Natural Sciences: The Ancient Egyptian Discovery of Algol's Period Confirmed

The Ancient Egyptians wrote Calendars of Lucky and Unlucky Days that assigned astronomically influenced prognoses for each day of the year. The best preserved of these calendars is the Cairo Calendar (hereafter CC) dated to 1244--1163 B.C. We have presented evidence that the 2.85 days period in the lucky prognoses of CC is equal to that of the eclipsing binary Algol during this historical era. We wanted to find out the vocabulary that represents Algol in the mythological texts of CC. Here we show that Algol was represented as Horus and thus signified both divinity and kingship. The texts describing the actions of Horus are consistent with the course of events witnessed by any naked eye observer of Algol. These descriptions support our claim that CC is the oldest preserved historical document of the discovery of a variable star. The period of the Moon, 29.6 days, has also been discovered in CC. We show that the actions of Seth were connected to this period, which also strongly regulated the times described as lucky for Heaven and for Earth. Now, for the first time, periodicity is discovered in the descriptions of the days in CC. Unlike many previous attempts to uncover the reasoning behind the myths of individual days, we discover the actual rules in the appearance and behaviour of deities during the whole year.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2015

Activity trends in young solar-type stars

We study a sample of 21 young and active solar-type stars with spectral types ranging from late F to mid K and characterize the behaviour of their activity. We apply the continuous period search (CPS) time series analysis method on 16 to 27 years of photometry to estimate the surface differential rotation and determine the existence and behaviour of active longitudes and activity cycles on the stars. We supplement the time series results by calculating new $\log{R'_{\rm HK}}$ emission indices for the stars from high resolution spectroscopy. The photometric rotation period variations reveal a positive correlation between the relative differential rotation coefficient and the rotation period, but do not reveal any dependence of the differential rotation on the effective temperature of the stars. Secondary period searches reveal activity cycles in 18 of the stars and temporary or persistent active longitudes in 11 of them. The activity cycles fall into specific activity branches. We find a new split into sub-branches, indicating multiple simultaneously present cycle modes. Active longitudes appear to be present only on the more active stars. There is a sharp break at approximately $\log{R'_{\rm HK}}=-4.46$ separating the less active stars with long-term axisymmetric spot distributions from the more active ones with non-axisymmetric configurations. In seven out of eleven of our stars with clearly detected long-term non-axisymmetric spot activity the estimated active longitude periods are significantly shorter than the mean photometric rotation periods. This systematic trend can be interpreted either as a sign of the active longitudes being sustained from a deeper level in the stellar interior than the individual spots or as azimuthal dynamo waves exhibiting prograde propagation.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2013

Multiperiodicity, modulations and flip-flops in variable star light curves II. Analysis of II Peg photometry during 1979-2010

According to earlier Doppler images of the magnetically active primary giant component of the RS CVn binary II Peg, the surface of the star was dominated by one single active longitude that was clearly drifting in the rotational frame of the binary system during 1994-2002; later imaging for 2004-2010, however, showed decreased and chaotic spot activity, with no signs of the drift pattern. Here we set out to investigate from a more extensive photometric dataset whether such a drift is a persistent phenomenon, in which case it could be due to either an azimuthal dynamo wave or an indication of the binary system orbital synchronization still being incomplete. We analyse the datasets using the Carrier Fit method (hereafter CF), especially suitable for analyzing time series in which a fast clocking frequency (such as the rotation of the star) is modulated with a slower process (such as the stellar activity cycle). We combine all collected photometric data into one single data set, and analyze it with the CF method. As a result, we confirm the earlier results of the spot activity having been dominated by one primary spotted region almost through the entire data set, and the existence of a persistent, nearly linear drift. Disruptions of the linear trend and complicated phase behavior are also seen, but the period analysis reveals a rather stable periodicity with P(spot)=6.71054d plus/minus 0.00005d. After the linear trend is removed from the data, we identify several abrupt phase jumps, three of which are analyzed in more detail with the CF method. These phase jumps closely resemble what is called flip-flop event, but the new spot configurations do not, in most cases, persist for longer than a few months.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2012

Flip-flops of FK Comae Berenices

FK Comae is a rapidly rotating magnetically active star, the light curve of which is modulated by cool spots on its surface. It was the first star where the "flip-flop" phenomenon was discovered. Since then, flip-flops in the spot activity have been reported in many other stars. Therefore, it is of interest to perform a more thorough study of the evolution of the spot activity in FK Com. In this study, we analyse 15 years of photometric observations with two different time series analysis methods, with a special emphasis on detecting flip-flop type events from the data. We apply the continuous period search and carrier fit methods on long-term standard Johnson-Cousins V-observations from the years 1995--2010. The observations were carried out with two automated photometric telescopes, Phoenix-10 and Amadeus T7 located in Arizona. We identify complex phase behaviour in 6 of the 15 analysed data segments. We identify five flip-flop events and two cases of phase jumps, where the phase shift is \Delta \phi < 0.4. In addition we see two mergers of spot regions and two cases where the apparent phase shifts are caused by spot regions drifting with respect to each other. Furthermore we detect variations in the rotation period corresponding to a differential rotation coefficient of |k|>0.031. The flip-flop cannot be interpreted as a single phenomenon, where the main activity jumps from one active longitude to another. In some of our cases the phase shifts can be explained by differential rotation: Two spot regions move with different angular velocity and even pass each other. Comparison between the methods show that the carrier fit utility is better in retrieving slow evolution especially from a low amplitude light curve, while the continuous period search is more sensitive in case of rapid changes.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv1997

The "human" statistics of terrestrial impact cratering rate

The most significant periodicities in the terrestrial impact crater record are due to the human-signal: the bias of assigning integer values for the crater ages. This bias seems to have eluded the proponents and opponents of real periodicity in the occurrence of these events, as well as the theorists searching for an extraterrestrial explanation for such periodicity. The human-signal should be seriously considered by scientists in astronomy, geology and paleontology when searching for a connection between terrestrial major comet or asteroid impacts and mass extinctions of species.

astro-ph↗