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Lauri Viitasaari

Publications and source records attributed to Lauri Viitasaari.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Operator Calculus for Population-Based Optimization: A Mean-Field Convergence Theory

Population-based and distributional optimization methods, from evolution strategies and consensus-based optimization to covariance-matrix adaptation and stochastic gradient methods viewed as distributional dynamics, are widely used for nonconvex or black-box problems, yet their convergence analyses remain fragmented across algorithm-specific techniques. We introduce an operator calculus in which a broad class of such methods, after choosing an appropriate state space and, where necessary, augmenting the state by memory or strategy variables, is described as a composition of three elementary operators (mutation, selection, and recombination) acting on probability measures. Under explicit stability and regularity conditions, the composite operator admits a pre-generator whose continuous-time limit is a transport-reaction-jump (TRJ) PDE that preserves the operator splitting. On this foundation we establish a modular Lyapunov principle. If a state-space Lyapunov function both dissipates under the full generator and controls the relevant search-space gauges, then the state-space Lyapunov functional and the induced search errors decay exponentially. The additive generator structure allows dissipation estimates to be assembled operator by operator, providing a toolkit for certifying convergence of composite mean-field algorithms.

math.OC

Parameter estimation in generalized fractional neuronal models

We investigate a generalized stochastic fractional neuronal model combining fractional dynamics with correlated stochastic inputs. The proposed framework is described by a fractional differential equation driven by a latent stochastic process with stationary increments and mean-reverting structure. This formulation allows the inclusion of both short-range and long-range dependence structures and naturally produces non-exponential relaxation phenomena. The main goal is the development of a feasible parameter estimation procedure based on discrete observations of the neuronal state process. We propose a two-step methodology. First, the parameters governing the fractional dynamics are estimated by exploiting the asymptotic behavior of Mittag-Leffler functions near the origin. Subsequently, the latent stochastic input is reconstructed through fractional differentiation techniques, allowing the estimation of the parameters governing the hidden noise dynamics. We derive quantitative error bounds for the estimators and analyze the reconstruction error of the latent process under suitable regularity assumptions on the driving noise. In particular, the interplay between the order of the fractional derivative and the H\"older regularity of the noise process naturally emerges in the stability analysis of the reconstruction procedure. Finally, simulation studies illustrate the applicability of the proposed methodology and highlight the influence of memory effects and noise regularity on the quality of statistical inference. The results support the relevance of fractional stochastic analysis for the modeling and inference of neuronal systems with memory and correlated inputs.

math.ST

Lower path regularity in all dimensions

We prove precise almost sure lower path regularity results for a wide class of stochastic processes in all space dimensions $d\geq 1$. Examples include Gaussian processes, in particular, fractional Brownian motions with Hurst index $H\in (0,1)$, Rosenblatt processes, and solutions to stochastic differential equations driven by fractional Brownian motions with Hurst index $H\in (\frac{1}{4},1)$, all in arbitrary dimensions $d\ge 1$. Our key tool is a new continuity result for Riesz potentials of occupation measures, which we use as substitutes for local times.

math.PR

Error analysis for learning fractional stochastic differential equations with applications in neural approximations

This paper develops a framework for the error analysis in nonparametric model fitting of fractional stochastic differential equations based on discrete observations. We identify and quantify the main error sources -- time discretization, coefficient approximation, and model fitting error -- within a unified framework. Through Sobolev-type norms, we derive convergence rates that incorporate the regularity of trajectories, thereby capturing the interaction of these error components. To demonstrate the applicability of the theory, we introduce a training scheme for coefficient function estimation based on shallow neural networks and a recurrent architecture. Numerical experiments validate the theoretical findings and illustrate the effectiveness of the approach.

math.PR

Smoothness of martingale observables and generalized Feynman-Kac formulas

We prove that, under the H\"ormander criterion on an It\^{o} process, all its martingale observables are smooth. As a consequence, we also obtain a generalized Feynman-Kac formula providing smooth solutions to certain PDE boundary-value problems, while allowing for degenerate diffusions as well as boundary stopping (under very mild boundary regularity assumptions). We also highlight an application to a question posed on Schramm-Loewner evolutions, by making certain Girsanov transform martingales accessible via It\^{o} calculus.

math.PR

On fractal minimizers and potentials of occupation measures

We consider four prototypes of variational problems and prove the existence of fractal minimizers through the direct method in the calculus of variations. By design these minimizers are H\"older curves or H\"older parametrizations of hypersurfaces whose images generally have a non-integer Hausdorff dimension. Although their origin is deterministic, their regularity properties are roughly similar to those of typical realizations of stochastic processes. As a key tool, we prove novel continuity and boundedness results for potentials of occupation measures of Gaussian random fields. These results complement well-known results for local times, but hold under much less restrictive assumptions. In an auxiliary section, we generalize earlier results on non-linear compositions of fractional Sobolev functions with $BV$-functions to higher dimensions.

math.PR

Characterization of continuous stationary fields as generalized Ornstein-Uhlenbeck fields via multi-parameter Langevin equation and multiple Riemann-Stieltjes integration

In this article, we characterize continuous stationary fields via generalized Langevin dynamics. This gives natural connections between stationary fields, stationary increment fields, self-similar fields, and generalized Langevin dynamics. Our contribution extends some recently proved similar results for stochastic processes to the case of continuous random fields. As a by-product, we introduce some new results on multiple Riemann-Stieltjes integrals.

math.PR

On the Convergence of the Extended Kalman Filter on Stiefel Manifolds when Observing a Constant Particle with Measurement Errors

In this paper we first introduce the setting of filtering on Stiefel manifolds. Then, assuming the underlying system process is constant, the convergence of the extended Kalman filter with Stiefel manifold-valued observations is proved. This corresponds to the case where one has measurement errors that needs to be filtered. Finally, some simulations are presented for a selected few Stiefel manifolds and the speed of convergence is studied.

math.ST

Extended Kalman Filtering on Stiefel Manifolds

A generalisation of the extended Kalman filter for Stiefel manifold-valued measurements is presented. We provide simulations on the 2-sphere and the space of orthogonal 4-by-2 matrices which show significant improvement of the Extended Kalman Filter compared to only relying on raw measurements.

stat.AP

Non-parametric estimation of non-linear diffusion coefficient in parabolic SPDEs

In this article, we introduce a novel non-parametric predictor, based on conditional expectation, for the unknown diffusion coefficient function $\sigma$ in the stochastic partial differential equation $Lu = \sigma(u)\dot{W}$, where $L$ is a parabolic second order differential operator and $\dot{W}$ is a suitable Gaussian noise. We prove consistency and derive an upper bound for the error in the $L^p$ norm, in terms of discretization and smoothening parameters $h$ and $\varepsilon$. We illustrate the applicability of the approach and the role of the parameters with several interesting numerical examples.

math.ST

Data driven modeling of multiple interest rates with generalized Vasicek-type models

The Vasicek model is a commonly used interest rate model, and there exist many extensions and generalizations of it. However, most generalizations of the model are either univariate or assume the noise process to be Gaussian, or both. In this article, we study a generalized multivariate Vasicek model that allows simultaneous modeling of multiple interest rates while making minimal assumptions. In the model, we only assume that the noise process has stationary increments with a suitably decaying autocovariance structure. We provide estimators for the unknown parameters and prove their consistencies. We also derive limiting distributions for each estimator and provide theoretical examples. Furthermore, the model is tested empirically with both simulated data and real data.

econ.EM

Tanaka formula for SDEs driven by fractional Brownian motion

We derive a Tanaka-type formula for the solution of a stochastic differential equation (SDE) driven by fractional Brownian motion (fBm) with Hurst parameter $H > \frac{1}{2}$. While Tanaka formulas for the fractional Brownian motion itself have been established, a corresponding result for non-linear SDEs driven by fBm has so far been unavailable. Our formula reveals a structure not previously observed: it features both a Skorokhod integral and a Malliavin trace correction, where the analogue of the local time appears through a double integral involving the Dirac distribution and the Malliavin derivative of the solution. A second double integral captures the variation of the diffusion coefficient along the flow. A key step in our analysis is a novel method to establish $L^2$-convergence of the trace term, which avoids the use of white noise calculus and instead exploits Gaussian-type density estimates for the law of the solution. The result applies to a broad class of equations under suitable regularity assumptions and extends naturally to convex functionals. As special cases, we recover known identities for the fractional Brownian motion and the fractional Ornstein--Uhlenbeck process.

math.PR

Moment Estimator-Based Extreme Quantile Estimation with Erroneous Observations: Application to Elliptical Extreme Quantile Region Estimation

In many application areas of extreme value theory, the variables of interest are not directly observable but instead contain errors. In this article, we quantify the effect of these errors in moment-based extreme value index estimation, and in corresponding extreme quantile estimation. We consider all, short-, light-, and heavy-tailed distributions. In particular, we derive conditions under which the error is asymptotically negligible. As an application, we consider affine equivariant extreme quantile region estimation under multivariate elliptical distributions.

math.ST

Cut-off phenomenon and asymptotic mixing for multivariate general linear processes

The small noise cut-off phenomenon in continuous time and space has been studied in the recent literature for the linear and non-linear stable Langevin dynamics with additive L\'evy drivers - understood as abrupt thermalization of the system along a particular time scale to its dynamical equilibrium - both for the total variation distance and the Wasserstein distance. The main result of this article establishes sufficient conditions for the window and profile cut-off phenomenon, which are flexible enough to cover the renormalized (non-Markovian) Ornstein--Uhlenbeck process driven by fractional Brownian motion and a large class of Gaussian and non-Gaussian, homogeneous and non-homogeneous drivers with (possible) finite second moments. The sufficient conditions are stated both for the total variation distance and the Wasserstein distance. Important examples are the multidimensional fractional Ornstein--Uhlenbeck process, the empirical sampling process of a fractional Ornstein--Uhlenbeck process, an Ornstein--Uhlenbeck processes driven by an Ornstein--Uhlenbeck process and the inhomogeneous Ornstein--Uhlenbeck process arising in simulated annealing.

math.PR

Convex Regularization and Convergence of Policy Gradient Flows under Safety Constraints

This paper examines reinforcement learning (RL) in infinite-horizon decision processes with almost-sure safety constraints, crucial for applications like autonomous systems, finance, and resource management. We propose a doubly-regularized RL framework combining reward and parameter regularization to address safety constraints in continuous state-action spaces. The problem is formulated as a convex regularized objective with parametrized policies in the mean-field regime. Leveraging mean-field theory and Wasserstein gradient flows, policies are modeled on an infinite-dimensional statistical manifold, with updates governed by parameter distribution gradient flows. Key contributions include solvability conditions for safety-constrained problems, smooth bounded approximations for gradient flows, and exponential convergence guarantees under sufficient regularization. General regularization conditions, including entropy regularization, support practical particle method implementations. This framework provides robust theoretical insights and guarantees for safe RL in complex, high-dimensional settings.

cs.LG

On parameter estimation for $N(\mu,\sigma^2 I_3)$ based on projected data into $\mathbb{S}^2$

We consider the projected normal distribution, with isotropic variance, on the 2-sphere using intrinsic statistics. We show that in this case, the expectation commutes with the projection and that the covariance of the normal variable has a 1-1 correspondence with the intrinsic covariance of the projected normal distribution. This allows to estimate, after model identification, the parameters of the underlying normal distribution that generates the data.

math.ST

Zombie Epidemic -- on Modeling the Effect of Interventions

The recent COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the need of studying extreme, life-threatening phenomena in advance. In this article, a zombie epidemic in Uusimaa region in Finland is modeled. A stochastic agent based simulation model is proposed and extensive simulations are conducted for this purpose. The model utilizes knowledge on defensive human behavior during crises. Studying the effects of a hypothetical zombie attack resembles examining the spread of deadly diseases and of rumors. A zombie attack is simulated in the most densely populated region in Finland. The region's exact population densities over its rasterized geographical map are utilized. Furthermore, the simulations are used to study the effect of implementing a (strict or partial) quarantine area in the epicenter. Computationally efficient Scala codes and video animations of the simulated epidemics are provided. The main findings emphasize the importance of implementing very strict measures, without delay, to stop the outbreak.

stat.AP

On explosion time in stochastic differential equations driven by fractional Brownian motion

In this article, we study the explosion time of the solution to autonomous stochastic differential equations driven by the fractional Brownian motion with Hurst parameter $H>1/2$. With the help of the Lamperti transformation, we are able to tackle the case of non-constant diffusion coefficients not covered in the literature. In addition, we provide an adaptive Euler-type numerical scheme for approximating the explosion time.

math.PR