arXiv subjects

Lele Cao

Publications and source records attributed to Lele Cao.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Position: Profiling Game Worlds by Transition Complexity

Game world modeling (GWM) and reinforcement learning (RL) are often confounded because research papers rarely quantify how difficult the underlying transition prediction problem is at the declared interface (pixels/tokens/latents with finite history). We propose the Transition Complexity Profile (TCP): a small, reproducible set of metrics that characterizes an environment's (or gameplay dataset's) induced transition kernel by (i) intrinsic one-step branching, (ii) interaction-induced uncertainty and opponent influence when observable, and (iii) temporal/spatial dependency span via standardized probe curves. TCP is reported with an explicit reference distribution, protocol stochasticity, and a versioned measurement budget (sampling/resampling and fixed probe compute), enabling comparable numbers across benchmarks. We outline how common game families and modern "neural game engine" domains populate this landscape and call for TCP to become standard benchmark metadata and a required statistic in GWM and RL papers.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

DISCOVER: A Solver for Distributional Counterfactual Explanations

Counterfactual explanations (CE) explain model decisions by identifying input modifications that lead to different predictions. Most existing methods operate at the instance level. Distributional Counterfactual Explanations (DCE) extend this setting by optimizing an optimal transport objective that balances proximity to a factual input distribution and alignment to a target output distribution, with statistical certification via chance constrained bounds. However, DCE relies on gradient based optimization, while many real-world tabular pipelines are dominated by non-differentiable models. We propose DISCOVER, a model-agnostic solver for distributional counterfactual explanations. DISCOVER preserves the original DCE objective and certification while replacing gradient descent with a budgeted propose-and-select search paradigm. It exploits a sample-wise decomposition of the transport objective to compute per-row impact scores and enforce a top-k intervention budget, focusing edits on the most influential samples. To guide candidate generation without predictor gradients, DISCOVER introduces an OT-guided cone sampling primitive driven by input-side transport geometry. Experiments on multiple tabular datasets demonstrate strong joint alignment of input and output distributions, extending distributional counterfactual reasoning to modern black box learning pipelines. A code repository is available at: https://github.com/VALHALLA9/Discover.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Be Wary of Your Time Series Preprocessing

Normalization and scaling are fundamental preprocessing steps in time series modeling, yet their role in Transformer-based models remains underexplored from a theoretical perspective. In this work, we present the first formal analysis of how different normalization strategies, specifically instance-based and global scaling, impact the expressivity of Transformer-based architectures for time series representation learning. We propose a novel expressivity framework tailored to time series, which quantifies a model's ability to distinguish between similar and dissimilar inputs in the representation space. Using this framework, we derive theoretical bounds for two widely used normalization methods: Standard and Min-Max scaling. Our analysis reveals that the choice of normalization strategy can significantly influence the model's representational capacity, depending on the task and data characteristics. We complement our theory with empirical validation on classification and forecasting benchmarks using multiple Transformer-based models. Our results show that no single normalization method consistently outperforms others, and in some cases, omitting normalization entirely leads to superior performance. These findings highlight the critical role of preprocessing in time series learning and motivate the need for more principled normalization strategies tailored to specific tasks and datasets.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Preventing the Collapse of Peer Review Requires Verification-First AI

This paper argues that AI-assisted peer review should be verification-first rather than review-mimicking. We propose truth-coupling, i.e. how tightly venue scores track latent scientific truth, as the right objective for review tools. We formalize two forces that drive a phase transition toward proxy-sovereign evaluation: verification pressure, when claims outpace verification capacity, and signal shrinkage, when real improvements become hard to separate from noise. In a minimal model that mixes occasional high-fidelity checks with frequent proxy judgment, we derive an explicit coupling law and an incentive-collapse condition under which rational effort shifts from truth-seeking to proxy optimization, even when current decisions still appear reliable. These results motivate actions for tool builders and program chairs: deploy AI as an adversarial auditor that generates auditable verification artifacts and expands effective verification bandwidth, rather than as a score predictor that amplifies claim inflation.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

Frequency Matters: When Time Series Foundation Models Fail Under Spectral Shift

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) have shown strong results on public benchmarks, prompting comparisons to a "BERT moment" for time series. Their effectiveness in industrial settings, however, remains uncertain. We examine why TSFMs often struggle to generalize and highlight spectral shift (a mismatch between the dominant frequency components in downstream tasks and those represented during pretraining) as a key factor. We present evidence from an industrial-scale player engagement prediction task in mobile gaming, where TSFMs underperform domain-adapted baselines. To isolate the mechanism, we design controlled synthetic experiments contrasting signals with seen versus unseen frequency bands, observing systematic degradation under spectral mismatch. These findings position frequency awareness as critical for robust TSFM deployment and motivate new pretraining and evaluation protocols that explicitly account for spectral diversity.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Enhancing Graph Classification Robustness with Singular Pooling

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have achieved strong performance across a range of graph representation learning tasks, yet their adversarial robustness in graph classification remains underexplored compared to node classification. While most existing defenses focus on the message-passing component, this work investigates the overlooked role of pooling operations in shaping robustness. We present a theoretical analysis of standard flat pooling methods (sum, average and max), deriving upper bounds on their adversarial risk and identifying their vulnerabilities under different attack scenarios and graph structures. Motivated by these insights, we propose \textit{Robust Singular Pooling (RS-Pool)}, a novel pooling strategy that leverages the dominant singular vector of the node embedding matrix to construct a robust graph-level representation. We theoretically investigate the robustness of RS-Pool and interpret the resulting bound leading to improved understanding of our proposed pooling operator. While our analysis centers on Graph Convolutional Networks (GCNs), RS-Pool is model-agnostic and can be implemented efficiently via power iteration. Empirical results on real-world benchmarks show that RS-Pool provides better robustness than the considered pooling methods when subject to state-of-the-art adversarial attacks while maintaining competitive clean accuracy. Our code is publicly available at:\href{https://github.com/king/rs-pool}{https://github.com/king/rs-pool}.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Pool Me Wisely: On the Effect of Pooling in Transformer-Based Models

Transformer models have become the dominant backbone for sequence modeling, leveraging self-attention to produce contextualized token representations. These are typically aggregated into fixed-size vectors via pooling operations for downstream tasks. While much of the literature has focused on attention mechanisms, the role of pooling remains underexplored despite its critical impact on model behavior. In this paper, we introduce a theoretical framework that rigorously characterizes the expressivity of Transformer-based models equipped with widely used pooling methods by deriving closed-form bounds on their representational capacity and the ability to distinguish similar inputs. Our analysis extends to different variations of attention formulations, demonstrating that these bounds hold across diverse architectural variants. We empirically evaluate pooling strategies across tasks requiring both global and local contextual understanding, spanning three major modalities: computer vision, natural language processing, and time-series analysis. Results reveal consistent trends in how pooling choices affect accuracy, sensitivity, and optimization behavior. Our findings unify theoretical and empirical perspectives, providing practical guidance for selecting or designing pooling mechanisms suited to specific tasks. This work positions pooling as a key architectural component in Transformer models and lays the foundation for more principled model design beyond attention alone.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Are We Really Measuring Progress? Transferring Insights from Evaluating Recommender Systems to Temporal Link Prediction

Recent work has questioned the reliability of graph learning benchmarks, citing concerns around task design, methodological rigor, and data suitability. In this extended abstract, we contribute to this discussion by focusing on evaluation strategies in Temporal Link Prediction (TLP). We observe that current evaluation protocols are often affected by one or more of the following issues: (1) inconsistent sampled metrics, (2) reliance on hard negative sampling often introduced as a means to improve robustness, and (3) metrics that implicitly assume equal base probabilities across source nodes by combining predictions. We support these claims through illustrative examples and connections to longstanding concerns in the recommender systems community. Our ongoing work aims to systematically characterize these problems and explore alternatives that can lead to more robust and interpretable evaluation. We conclude with a discussion of potential directions for improving the reliability of TLP benchmarks.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

A Practical Synthesis of Detecting AI-Generated Textual, Visual, and Audio Content

Advances in AI-generated content have led to wide adoption of large language models, diffusion-based visual generators, and synthetic audio tools. However, these developments raise critical concerns about misinformation, copyright infringement, security threats, and the erosion of public trust. In this paper, we explore an extensive range of methods designed to detect and mitigate AI-generated textual, visual, and audio content. We begin by discussing motivations and potential impacts associated with AI-based content generation, including real-world risks and ethical dilemmas. We then outline detection techniques spanning observation-based strategies, linguistic and statistical analysis, model-based pipelines, watermarking and fingerprinting, as well as emergent ensemble approaches. We also present new perspectives on robustness, adaptation to rapidly improving generative architectures, and the critical role of human-in-the-loop verification. By surveying state-of-the-art research and highlighting case studies in academic, journalistic, legal, and industrial contexts, this paper aims to inform robust solutions and policymaking. We conclude by discussing open challenges, including adversarial transformations, domain generalization, and ethical concerns, thereby offering a holistic guide for researchers, practitioners, and regulators to preserve content authenticity in the face of increasingly sophisticated AI-generated media.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

Watermarking for AI Content Detection: A Review on Text, Visual, and Audio Modalities

The rapid advancement of generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) has revolutionized content creation across text, visual, and audio domains, simultaneously introducing significant risks such as misinformation, identity fraud, and content manipulation. This paper presents a practical survey of watermarking techniques designed to proactively detect GenAI content. We develop a structured taxonomy categorizing watermarking methods for text, visual, and audio modalities and critically evaluate existing approaches based on their effectiveness, robustness, and practicality. Additionally, we identify key challenges, including resistance to adversarial attacks, lack of standardization across different content types, and ethical considerations related to privacy and content ownership. Finally, we discuss potential future research directions aimed at enhancing watermarking strategies to ensure content authenticity and trustworthiness. This survey serves as a foundational resource for researchers and practitioners seeking to understand and advance watermarking techniques for AI-generated content detection.

cs.CR↗

arXiv2025

Prompt-Tuning Bandits: Enabling Few-Shot Generalization for Efficient Multi-Task Offline RL

Prompting has emerged as the dominant paradigm for adapting large, pre-trained transformer-based models to downstream tasks. The Prompting Decision Transformer (PDT) enables large-scale, multi-task offline Reinforcement Learning (RL) pre-training by leveraging stochastic trajectory prompts to identify the target task. However, these prompts are sampled uniformly from expert demonstrations, overlooking a critical limitation: not all prompts are equally informative for differentiating between tasks. This limits generalization and adaptation, especially in low-data or open-world settings where sample efficiency is crucial. To address this issue, we propose a lightweight, inference-time, bandit-based prompt-tuning framework. The bandit explores and optimizes trajectory prompt selection to enhance task performance, while avoiding costly fine-tuning of the transformer backbone. Our experiments indicate not only clear performance gains due to bandit-based prompt-tuning, but also better sample complexity, scalability, and prompt space exploration compared to prompt-tuning baselines. These results highlights the importance of adaptive prompt selection mechanisms for efficient generalization in offline multi-task RL.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Towards Unified Approaches in Self-Supervised Event Stream Modeling: Progress and Prospects

The proliferation of digital interactions across diverse domains, such as healthcare, e-commerce, gaming, and finance, has resulted in the generation of vast volumes of event stream (ES) data. ES data comprises continuous sequences of timestamped events that encapsulate detailed contextual information relevant to each domain. While ES data holds significant potential for extracting actionable insights and enhancing decision-making, its effective utilization is hindered by challenges such as the scarcity of labeled data and the fragmented nature of existing research efforts. Self-Supervised Learning (SSL) has emerged as a promising paradigm to address these challenges by enabling the extraction of meaningful representations from unlabeled ES data. In this survey, we systematically review and synthesize SSL methodologies tailored for ES modeling across multiple domains, bridging the gaps between domain-specific approaches that have traditionally operated in isolation. We present a comprehensive taxonomy of SSL techniques, encompassing both predictive and contrastive paradigms, and analyze their applicability and effectiveness within different application contexts. Furthermore, we identify critical gaps in current research and propose a future research agenda aimed at developing scalable, domain-agnostic SSL frameworks for ES modeling. By unifying disparate research efforts and highlighting cross-domain synergies, this survey aims to accelerate innovation, improve reproducibility, and expand the applicability of SSL to diverse real-world ES challenges.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

On the Power of Heuristics in Temporal Graphs

Dynamic graph datasets often exhibit strong temporal patterns, such as recency, which prioritizes recent interactions, and popularity, which favors frequently occurring nodes. We demonstrate that simple heuristics leveraging only these patterns can perform on par or outperform state-of-the-art neural network models under standard evaluation protocols. To further explore these dynamics, we introduce metrics that quantify the impact of recency and popularity across datasets. Our experiments on BenchTemp and the Temporal Graph Benchmark show that our approaches achieve state-of-the-art performance across all datasets in the latter and secure top ranks on multiple datasets in the former. These results emphasize the importance of refined evaluation schemes to enable fair comparisons and promote the development of more robust temporal graph models. Additionally, they reveal that current deep learning methods often struggle to capture the key patterns underlying predictions in real-world temporal graphs. For reproducibility, we have made our code publicly available.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Prompt Tuning Decision Transformers with Structured and Scalable Bandits

Prompt tuning has emerged as a key technique for adapting large pre-trained Decision Transformers (DTs) in offline Reinforcement Learning (RL), particularly in multi-task and few-shot settings. The Prompting Decision Transformer (PDT) enables task generalization via trajectory prompts sampled uniformly from expert demonstrations -- without accounting for prompt informativeness. In this work, we propose a bandit-based prompt-tuning method that learns to construct optimal trajectory prompts from demonstration data at inference time. We devise a structured bandit architecture operating in the trajectory prompt space, achieving linear rather than combinatorial scaling with prompt size. Additionally, we show that the pre-trained PDT itself can serve as a powerful feature extractor for the bandit, enabling efficient reward modeling across various environments. We theoretically establish regret bounds and demonstrate empirically that our method consistently enhances performance across a wide range of tasks, high-dimensional environments, and out-of-distribution scenarios, outperforming existing baselines in prompt tuning.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Expressivity of Representation Learning on Continuous-Time Dynamic Graphs: An Information-Flow Centric Review

Graphs are ubiquitous in real-world applications, ranging from social networks to biological systems, and have inspired the development of Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) for learning expressive representations. While most research has centered on static graphs, many real-world scenarios involve dynamic, temporally evolving graphs, motivating the need for Continuous-Time Dynamic Graph (CTDG) models. This paper provides a comprehensive review of Graph Representation Learning (GRL) on CTDGs with a focus on Self-Supervised Representation Learning (SSRL). We introduce a novel theoretical framework that analyzes the expressivity of CTDG models through an Information-Flow (IF) lens, quantifying their ability to propagate and encode temporal and structural information. Leveraging this framework, we categorize existing CTDG methods based on their suitability for different graph types and application scenarios. Within the same scope, we examine the design of SSRL methods tailored to CTDGs, such as predictive and contrastive approaches, highlighting their potential to mitigate the reliance on labeled data. Empirical evaluations on synthetic and real-world datasets validate our theoretical insights, demonstrating the strengths and limitations of various methods across long-range, bi-partite and community-based graphs. This work offers both a theoretical foundation and practical guidance for selecting and developing CTDG models, advancing the understanding of GRL in dynamic settings.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Understanding Players as if They Are Talking to the Game in a Customized Language: A Pilot Study

This pilot study explores the application of language models (LMs) to model game event sequences, treating them as a customized natural language. We investigate a popular mobile game, transforming raw event data into textual sequences and pretraining a Longformer model on this data. Our approach captures the rich and nuanced interactions within game sessions, effectively identifying meaningful player segments. The results demonstrate the potential of self-supervised LMs in enhancing game design and personalization without relying on ground-truth labels.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Joint Distribution-Informed Shapley Values for Sparse Counterfactual Explanations

Counterfactual explanations (CE) aim to reveal how small input changes flip a model's prediction, yet many methods modify more features than necessary, reducing clarity and actionability. We introduce \emph{COLA}, a model- and generator-agnostic post-hoc framework that refines any given CE by computing a coupling via optimal transport (OT) between factual and counterfactual sets and using it to drive a Shapley-based attribution (\emph{$p$-SHAP}) that selects a minimal set of edits while preserving the target effect. Theoretically, OT minimizes an upper bound on the $W_1$ divergence between factual and counterfactual outcomes and that, under mild conditions, refined counterfactuals are guaranteed not to move farther from the factuals than the originals. Empirically, across four datasets, twelve models, and five CE generators, COLA achieves the same target effects with only 26--45\% of the original feature edits. On a small-scale benchmark, COLA shows near-optimality.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Thread: A Logic-Based Data Organization Paradigm for How-To Question Answering with Retrieval Augmented Generation

Recent advances in retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) have substantially improved question-answering systems, particularly for factoid '5Ws' questions. However, significant challenges remain when addressing '1H' questions, specifically how-to questions, which are integral for decision-making and require dynamic, step-by-step responses. The key limitation lies in the prevalent data organization paradigm, chunk, which commonly divides documents into fixed-size segments, and disrupts the logical coherence and connections within the context. To address this, we propose Thread, a novel data organization paradigm enabling systems to handle how-to questions more effectively. Specifically, we introduce a new knowledge granularity, 'logic unit' (LU), where large language models transform documents into more structured and loosely interconnected LUs. Extensive experiments across both open-domain and industrial settings show that Thread outperforms existing paradigms significantly, improving the success rate of handling how-to questions by 21% to 33%. Additionally, Thread demonstrates high adaptability across diverse document formats, reducing retrieval information by up to 75% compared to chunk, and also shows better generalizability to '5Ws' questions, such as multi-hop questions, outperforming other paradigms.

cs.AI↗