arXiv subjects

Leo Anthony Celi

Publications and source records attributed to Leo Anthony Celi.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Towards a Deterministic Math Solver for Clinical Language Models

Large language models are unreliable at arithmetic, which is a problem for clinical calculators where a single numerical error changes the recommendation. The standard response is to hardcode each calculator as a validated function, one at a time. We test an alternative: the model does not calculate. Instead, it writes case-specific Python that a restricted local executor runs as a deterministic solver, and the model's task reduces to deciding how to use it. We evaluate this Program-Solve interface on MedCalc-Bench Verified (1,100 cases, 55 calculators) against direct model arithmetic and a hand-written 22-calculator library, using Qwen2.5-7B and Qwen2.5-32B-AWQ, after auditing the benchmark's formulas against current clinical guidelines and flagging 16 of 55 with version, use or coefficient concerns. With formulas and gold variables supplied and both routes reading the whole note, handing off to the solver is not a reliable advantage at 7B (75.31% against 72.02%, a paired +3.29 points with a 95% calculator-cluster interval of [-3.49, 10.38]) but is one at 32B (90.53% against 83.47%, +7.05 [0.47, 14.60], clear of zero). The hand-written library is exact on its 440 supported cases but abstains elsewhere (40.0% overall). Adding an executor thus helps some open-weight models more than others even under matched formula, variable and note access, and is not a substitute for verified formulas or reliable variable extraction either way.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Agents Catching Agents: Shortcut Cascades and Benchmark Gaming in Clinical Multi-Agent Systems

Clinical decision support is moving toward committees of language-model agents deliberating on a shared workspace. We ask whether such committees can be gamed by shortcuts, cues a benchmark rewards but a clinician would ignore. Across seven cohorts on six public datasets spanning text (MedQA-USMLE, MedMCQA, MIMIC-CXR reports), imaging (NIH ChestX-ray14, MIMIC-CXR-JPG, CheXpert) and tabular ICU records (SUPPORT2), Gemini committees resist these cues in isolation (flip 5-16%), yet a socially plausible shortcut spreads: when two peers assert the same wrong answer, the holdout under test adopts it in 38% of cases, as does a false "pre-screen" system flag, on both capability tiers. Of three oversight agents, a gate cannot separate adoption from honest agreement (false-positive rate 100%); a same-lineage judge reading only the transcript flags adoption on text (precision 100%, recall 93%) but collapses onto the gate in imaging; a referee that privately re-queries the holdout transfers to imaging (77-88% precision, 13-21% false-positive rate). Tripling a cue's visual salience does not move contagion, whereas a second peer voice raises it by half again. Gaming a hidden rubric is near-silent: only 1/10 text and 1/134 imaging drifters name the rubric they moved toward. What games a committee is social plausibility, and only a referee independent of self-report catches it. Code: https://github.com/criticaldata/benchmaxxing

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Loud or Silent? A Reusable Framework for Per-Modality Failure Analysis in Multimodal Clinical AI

Multimodal clinical models are usually judged on accuracy with every modality present, but deployment removes modalities; an echocardiogram is often unavailable where an ECG is routine. Two questions then matter beyond the size of the accuracy loss: which modality was responsible, and whether the model fails loudly or silently once that modality is dropped. The distinction is per-example and modality-level, and is separate from post-hoc feature attribution (e.g. SHAP). Models are replaced often; the evaluation that answers these questions is reused. We present a model-agnostic modality-failure framework: given N modality embeddings, any mask-aware probe, and labels, it returns a per-example failure taxonomy, a per-modality complementarity matrix that attributes error to modalities, and a loud-vs-silent dropout profile separating monitorable failures from those that pass unflagged far from the decision boundary, using only deployment-observable signals. We release it as a small, unit-tested harness and validate it against planted ground truth. Across seeds it recovers that planted modality dominance and complementary subset, reports per-modality loud-vs-silent rates, and scales to a three-modality complementarity matrix; because the planted structure is known by construction, this validates recovery of per-example attribution rather than clinical performance. We then instantiate the framework on frozen EchoJEPA and HuBERT-ECG embeddings for LVEF and the EF <= 40% HFrEF gate over a paired MIMIC-IV cohort, where on the held-out test split (n = 245) dropping echo nearly doubles error. The narrow echo-to-ECG overlap that bounds cohort size is itself a deployment finding for cardiac foundation models. All of our work can be found at https://github.com/criticaldata/PRIMED-AI.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Testing the Black Box: Structural Barriers to Independent Evaluation of Consumer-Facing Health LLMs

Background: Consumer-facing large language models are now a common source of health information, and they interpret and personalize responses rather than retrieve them. Whether their responses vary across users is a clinical, equity, and governance question, sharpened by evidence that sycophantic responses can alter judgment and increase trust. Objective: To evaluate response variation and sycophancy in consumer-facing health LLMs under conditions resembling ordinary patient use. Methods: We constructed simulated user profiles differing in geography, browsing context, expressed beliefs, and social determinants of health, drawing on literature linking social context to health attitudes. We adapted validated instruments, including the Vaccination Attitudes Examination scale and reproductive attitudes scales, into multi-turn prompts designed to elicit clinically meaningful variation across users. Results: The evaluation encountered five linked barriers. Factual prompts produced stable responses that masked sycophancy emerging over multi-turn conversation. Browser-based interfaces did not disclose which signals influence outputs and could not be reset to a clean baseline. Large-scale testing was restricted by terms of service, rate limits, and bot detection. Accuracy-based criteria could not capture tone, framing, or omission, and LLM-as-judge methods risked shared alignment bias. Models changed without traceable version identifiers, preventing reliable replication. Conclusions: No reliable independent evaluation framework yet exists for examining how consumer-facing health LLMs behave in ordinary use. Oversight requires disclosure of personalization signals, stable version identifiers, researcher safe harbor programs, and post-deployment monitoring of health-related outputs.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Causal Machine Learning Is Not a Panacea: A Roadmap for Observational Causal Inference in Health

Objective: The growing availability of large-scale observational clinical datasets and challenges in conducting randomized controlled trials have spurred enthusiasm in using causal machine learning (ML) for causal inference in observational data. We present a roadmap for applying causal ML to observational data. Materials and methods: We outline the importance of assessing validity assumptions within available data and applying causal ML responsibly for clinical experts using causal ML and ML practitioners with limited clinical expertise. Observations: Despite advances in causal ML, its limitations remain largely under-appreciated across disciplines. This gap in shared knowledge may impact the validity of findings. Discussion: Causal assumptions must be satisfied and modeling choices justified. Otherwise, these approaches risk producing biased or misleading results, with consequences for clinical research and patient care. Conclusion: Causal ML can be a powerful tool for generating causal hypotheses. We provide a template to strengthen the rigor and interpretability of causal analyses.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Multi-Class Neurological Disorder Prediction with Tensor Network Feature Engineering

Accurate diagnosis of neurological disorders is contingent upon advanced imaging modalities such as Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI), which commonly utilize sparse imaging techniques to reconstruct images from limited data, thus reducing storage and acquisition time. However, challenges remain in managing noise and preserving critical diagnostic features for effective analysis. In this study, an ensemble classifier is enriched with PARAFAC CP tensor decompositions, drawing mathematical inspiration from quantum neural network architectures but implemented entirely classically. The model was evaluated on a large, balanced clinical dataset comprising 55,160 images across 8 diagnostic categories, employing both higher and lower PARAFAC rank configurations. Evaluated through 5-fold nested stratified cross-validation, both configurations achieved strong validation performance, demonstrating robustness to tensor network expressivity. Additionally, the proposed model achieved competitive performance relative to recent classical approaches, further underscoring the potential of quantum-inspired classical frameworks to enhance medical image analysis and support reliable clinical diagnosis. Future work will explore the integration of advanced encoding schemes, deployment on real quantum hardware, and the use of more diverse neurological datasets.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2026

Quantum Kernel Advantage over Classical Collapse in Medical Foundation Model Embeddings

We provide evidence of quantum kernel advantage under noiseless simulation in binary insurance classification on MIMIC-CXR chest radiographs using quantum support vector machines (QSVM) with frozen embeddings from three medical foundation models (MedSigLIP-448, RAD-DINO, ViT-patch32). We propose a two-tier fair comparison framework in which both classifiers receive identical PCA-q features. At Tier 1 (untuned QSVM vs. untuned linear SVM, C = 1 both sides), QSVM wins minority-class F1 in all 18 tested configurations (17 at p < 0.001, 1 at p < 0.01). The classical linear kernel collapses to majority-class prediction on 90-100% of seeds at every qubit count, while QSVM maintains non-trivial recall. At q = 11 (MedSigLIP-448 plateau center), QSVM achieves mean F1 = 0.343 vs. classical F1 = 0.050 (F1 gain = +0.293, p < 0.001) without hyperparameter tuning. Under Tier 2 (untuned QSVM vs. C-tuned RBF SVM), QSVM wins all seven tested configurations (mean gain +0.068, max +0.112). Eigenspectrum analysis reveals quantum kernel effective rank reaches 69.80 at q = 11, far exceeding linear kernel rank, while classical collapse remains C-invariant. A full qubit sweep reveals architecture-dependent concentration onset across models. Code: https://github.com/sebasmos/qml-medimage

quant-ph↗

arXiv2026

Surrogate modeling for interpreting black-box LLMs in medical predictions

Large language models (LLMs), trained on vast datasets, encode extensive real-world knowledge within their parameters, yet their black-box nature obscures the mechanisms and extent of this encoding. Surrogate modeling, which uses simplified models to approximate complex systems, can offer a path toward better interpretability of black-box models. We propose a surrogate modeling framework that quantitatively explains LLM-encoded knowledge. For a specific hypothesis derived from domain knowledge, this framework approximates the latent LLM knowledge space using observable elements (input-output pairs) through extensive prompting across a comprehensive range of simulated scenarios. Through proof-of-concept experiments in medical predictions, we demonstrate our framework's effectiveness in revealing the extent to which LLMs "perceive" each input variable in relation to the output. Particularly, given concerns that LLMs may perpetuate inaccuracies and societal biases embedded in their training data, our experiments using this framework quantitatively revealed both associations that contradict established medical knowledge and the persistence of scientifically refuted racial assumptions within LLM-encoded knowledge. By disclosing these issues, our framework can act as a red-flag indicator to support the safe and reliable application of these models.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

Domain-Specific Latent Representations Improve the Fidelity of Diffusion-Based Medical Image Super-Resolution

Latent diffusion models for medical image super-resolution universally inherit variational autoencoders designed for natural photographs. We show that this default choice, not the diffusion architecture, is the dominant constraint on reconstruction quality. In a controlled experiment holding all other pipeline components fixed, replacing the generic Stable Diffusion VAE with MedVAE, a domain-specific autoencoder pretrained on more than 1.6 million medical images, yields +2.91 to +3.29 dB PSNR improvement across knee MRI, brain MRI, and chest X-ray (n = 1,820; Cohen's d = 1.37 to 1.86, all p < 10^{-20}, Wilcoxon signed-rank). Wavelet decomposition localises the advantage to the finest spatial frequency bands encoding anatomically relevant fine structure. Ablations across inference schedules, prediction targets, and generative architectures confirm the gap is stable within plus or minus 0.15 dB, while hallucination rates remain comparable between methods (Cohen's h < 0.02 across all datasets), establishing that reconstruction fidelity and generative hallucination are governed by independent pipeline components. These results provide a practical screening criterion: autoencoder reconstruction quality, measurable without diffusion training, predicts downstream SR performance (R^2 = 0.67), suggesting that domain-specific VAE selection should precede diffusion architecture search. Code and trained model weights are publicly available at https://github.com/sebasmos/latent-sr.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2026

Code Sharing In Prediction Model Research: A Scoping Review

Analytical code is essential for reproducing diagnostic and prognostic prediction model research, yet code availability in the published literature remains limited. While the TRIPOD statements set standards for reporting prediction model methods, they do not define explicit standards for repository structure and documentation. This review quantifies current code-sharing practices to inform the development of TRIPOD-Code, a TRIPOD extension reporting guideline focused on code sharing. We conducted a scoping review of PubMed-indexed articles citing TRIPOD or TRIPOD+AI as of Aug 11, 2025, restricted to studies retrievable via the PubMed Central Open Access API. Eligible studies developed, updated, or validated multivariable prediction models. A large language model-assisted pipeline was developed to screen articles and extract code availability statements and repository links. Repositories were assessed with the same LLM against 14 predefined reproducibility-related features. Our code is made publicly available. Among 3,967 eligible articles, 12.2% included code sharing statements. Code sharing increased over time, reaching 15.8% in 2025, and was higher among TRIPOD+AI-citing studies than TRIPOD-citing studies. Sharing prevalence varied widely by journal and country. Repository assessment showed substantial heterogeneity in reproducibility features: most repositories contained a README file (80.5%), but fewer specified dependencies (37.6%; version-constrained 21.6%) or were modular (42.4%). In prediction model research, code sharing remains relatively uncommon, and when shared, often falls short of being reusable. These findings provide an empirical baseline for the TRIPOD-Code extension and underscore the need for clearer expectations beyond code availability, including documentation, dependency specification, licensing, and executable structure.

cs.SE↗

arXiv2026

Learning Representations from Incomplete EHR Data with Dual-Masked Autoencoding

Electronic health records (EHR) arrive masked. Clinicians order measurements selectively, and any patient table thus contains only a subset of the values that characterize the underlying physiological state. Prior masked modeling approaches on EHR data either impute the table before learning, represent missingness through a dedicated placeholder signal, or optimize solely for imputation, which limits the representations they learn for downstream clinical tasks and carries every unobserved entry through the encoder. We introduce AID-MAE, an Augmented-Intrinsic Dual-Masked Autoencoder that learns directly from incomplete tables by combining the intrinsic mask the record already carries with an augmented mask that hides a subset of observed values for reconstruction during pretraining. Neither type of masked entry enters the encoder, so attention operates only over what was observed. AID-MAE achieves consistent improvements over strong baselines across multiple clinical tasks on two datasets. Across experiments, we discuss that recovering the missing entries is not a prerequisite for learning and show that the representations learned carry clinical structure without supervision.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Coefficient of Variation Masking: A Volatility-Aware Strategy for EHR Foundation Models

Masked autoencoders (MAEs) are increasingly applied to electronic health records (EHR) for learning general-purpose representations that support diverse clinical tasks. However, existing approaches typically rely on uniform random masking, implicitly assuming all features are equally predictable. In reality, laboratory tests exhibit substantial heterogeneity in volatility: some biomarkers (e.g., sodium) remain stable, while others (e.g., lactate) fluctuate considerably and are more difficult to model. Clinically, volatile biomarkers often signal acute pathophysiology and require more sophisticated modeling to capture their complex temporal patterns. We propose a volatility-aware pretraining strategy, Coefficient of Variation Masking (CV-Masking), that adaptively adjusts masking probabilities according to the intrinsic variability of each feature. Combined with a value-only masking objective aligned with clinical workflows, CV-Masking yields systematic improvements over random and variance-based strategies. Experiments on a large panel of laboratory tests show that CV-Masking enhances reconstruction, improves downstream predictive performance, and accelerates convergence, producing more robust and clinically meaningful EHR representations.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Auditing Sex/Gender Disparities in Emergency Triage with LLM-based Paired Comparisons

We present a domain-agnostic paired-comparison approach that uses Large Language Models (LLMs) to quantify sex/gender-related asymmetries in documented clinical decision-making. The method trains an LLM to emulate observed decisions, then evaluates sex-swapped pairs in which only sex is flipped, holding documented clinical content constant. We apply it to emergency triage, analyzing more than 140,000 Bordeaux University Hospital (France) admissions and testing methodological portability on MIMIC-IV, spanning a different language, population, and healthcare system. Fine-tuning Mistral NeMo 12B for triage prediction and using Mistral Small 24B for pair generation, we find otherwise identical presentations were more likely to receive a lower-severity predicted score as female than male: 1.1% (95% CI 0.9-1.3) in the French cohort, 2.2% (1.7-2.7) in MIMIC-IV. Predictions are sensitive to both tabular and textual sex markers, with the asymmetry emerging primarily in the combined bimodal setting. A model retrained on sex-neutralized inputs eliminated the between-sex prediction gap, indicating the asymmetry is mediated by explicit sex markers. Patterns vary with nurse-patient sex concordance, suggesting the model captures stable features of the recorded data rather than random artifacts. These effects are small and documentation-level. We therefore present this as a methodological feasibility study: LLMs can serve as scalable probes of documented decisions, generating hypotheses rather than establishing bedside clinician behavior or clinically meaningful undertriage, which would require clinician-anchored validation. Beyond emergency care, the approach supports bias audits in other domains.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2025

Algorithms Trained on Normal Chest X-rays Can Predict Health Insurance Types

Artificial intelligence is revealing what medicine never intended to encode. Deep vision models, trained on chest X-rays, can now detect not only disease but also invisible traces of social inequality. In this study, we show that state-of-the-art architectures (DenseNet121, SwinV2-B, MedMamba) can predict a patient's health insurance type, a strong proxy for socioeconomic status, from normal chest X-rays with significant accuracy (AUC around 0.70 on MIMIC-CXR-JPG, 0.68 on CheXpert). The signal was unlikely contributed by demographic features by our machine learning study combining age, race, and sex labels to predict health insurance types; it also remains detectable when the model is trained exclusively on a single racial group. Patch-based occlusion reveals that the signal is diffuse rather than localized, embedded in the upper and mid-thoracic regions. This suggests that deep networks may be internalizing subtle traces of clinical environments, equipment differences, or care pathways; learning socioeconomic segregation itself. These findings challenge the assumption that medical images are neutral biological data. By uncovering how models perceive and exploit these hidden social signatures, this work reframes fairness in medical AI: the goal is no longer only to balance datasets or adjust thresholds, but to interrogate and disentangle the social fingerprints embedded in clinical data itself.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2025

Uncertainty Makes It Stable: Curiosity-Driven Quantized Mixture-of-Experts

Deploying deep neural networks on resource-constrained devices faces two critical challenges: maintaining accuracy under aggressive quantization while ensuring predictable inference latency. We present a curiosity-driven quantized Mixture-of-Experts framework that addresses both through Bayesian epistemic uncertainty-based routing across heterogeneous experts (BitNet ternary, 1-16 bit BitLinear, post-training quantization). Evaluated on audio classification benchmarks (ESC-50, Quinn, UrbanSound8K), our 4-bit quantization maintains 99.9 percent of full-precision F1 (0.858 vs 0.859) with 4x compression and 31 percent energy savings versus 8-bit, while both achieve statistical parity with full precision (p > 0.05). Crucially, curiosity-driven routing simultaneously improves accuracy and stability: on Quinn, F1 increases from 0.802 to 0.809 while cross-fold variance drops by 85 percent (p < 0.001, Levene's test), with reductions of 50 to 94 percent across datasets. The routing is self-organizing, with the high-precision 8-bit expert automatically receiving the most uncertain samples (20 percent lower confidence, p < 0.001), while lightweight experts handle easier inputs. Datasets with already low baseline variance show no artificial stability gain, confirming the mechanism targets genuine epistemic uncertainty rather than overfitting routing decisions. At 1.2M parameters, the framework provides interpretable, precision-aware routing suitable for safety-sensitive edge deployments where both accuracy and predictability are critical.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Beyond Ethics: How Inclusive Innovation Drives Economic Returns in Medical AI

While ethical arguments for fairness in healthcare AI are well-established, the economic and strategic value of inclusive design remains underexplored. This perspective introduces the ``inclusive innovation dividend'' -- the counterintuitive principle that solutions engineered for diverse, constrained use cases generate superior economic returns in broader markets. Drawing from assistive technologies that evolved into billion-dollar mainstream industries, we demonstrate how inclusive healthcare AI development creates business value beyond compliance requirements. We identify four mechanisms through which inclusive innovation drives returns: (1) market expansion via geographic scalability and trust acceleration; (2) risk mitigation through reduced remediation costs and litigation exposure; (3) performance dividends from superior generalization and reduced technical debt, and (4) competitive advantages in talent acquisition and clinical adoption. We present the Healthcare AI Inclusive Innovation Framework (HAIIF), a practical scoring system that enables organizations to evaluate AI investments based on their potential to capture these benefits. HAIIF provides structured guidance for resource allocation, transforming fairness and inclusivity from regulatory checkboxes into sources of strategic differentiation. Our findings suggest that organizations investing incrementally in inclusive design can achieve expanded market reach and sustained competitive advantages, while those treating these considerations as overhead face compounding disadvantages as network effects and data advantages accrue to early movers.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

Uncertainty-Aware Generative Oversampling Using an Entropy-Guided Conditional Variational Autoencoder

Class imbalance remains a major challenge in machine learning, especially for high-dimensional biomedical data where nonlinear manifold structures dominate. Traditional oversampling methods such as SMOTE rely on local linear interpolation, often producing implausible synthetic samples. Deep generative models like Conditional Variational Autoencoders (CVAEs) better capture nonlinear distributions, but standard variants treat all minority samples equally, neglecting the importance of uncertain, boundary-region examples emphasized by heuristic methods like Borderline-SMOTE and ADASYN. We propose Local Entropy-Guided Oversampling with a CVAE (LEO-CVAE), a generative oversampling framework that explicitly incorporates local uncertainty into both representation learning and data generation. To quantify uncertainty, we compute Shannon entropy over the class distribution in a sample's neighborhood: high entropy indicates greater class overlap, serving as a proxy for uncertainty. LEO-CVAE leverages this signal through two mechanisms: (i) a Local Entropy-Weighted Loss (LEWL) that emphasizes robust learning in uncertain regions, and (ii) an entropy-guided sampling strategy that concentrates generation in these informative, class-overlapping areas. Applied to clinical genomics datasets (ADNI and TCGA lung cancer), LEO-CVAE consistently improves classifier performance, outperforming both traditional oversampling and generative baselines. These results highlight the value of uncertainty-aware generative oversampling for imbalanced learning in domains governed by complex nonlinear structures, such as omics data.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Bridging the Regulatory Divide: Ensuring Safety and Equity in Wearable Health Technologies

As wearable health technologies have grown more sophisticated, the distinction between "wellness" and "medical" devices has become increasingly blurred. While some features undergo formal U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) review, many over-the-counter tools operate in a regulatory grey zone, leveraging health-related data and outputs without clinical validation. Further complicating the issue is the widespread repurposing of wellness devices for medical uses, which can introduce safety risks beyond the reach of current oversight. Drawing on legal analysis, case studies, and ethical considerations, we propose an approach emphasizing distributed risk, patient-centered outcomes, and iterative reform. Without a more pluralistic and evolving framework, the promise of wearable health technology risks being undermined by growing inequities, misuse, and eroded public trust.

cs.CY↗