arXiv subjects

Leon Noble

Publications and source records attributed to Leon Noble.

12 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Cosmology with Intensity Mapping via Statistics Beyond the Power Spectrum in the SKAO Era

The cosmological distribution of neutral hydrogen (HI) during the post-reionization era is highly non-Gaussian due to the underlying non-linear structure formation, complex galaxy biasing, and potential primordial non-Gaussianity. One needs higher-order (beyond two-point) statistics to maximally extract the non-Gaussian information out of the 21-cm intensity maps. This chapter summarizes the potential of several higher-order statistics, including voxel intensity distribution, emission line stacking, probability density functions, $\ell_1$-norm, bispectrum, and various marked statistics. Additionally, image-based morphological descriptors, such as the Largest Cluster Statistic, local dimensions, and Minkowski functionals, etc., can potentially characterize the morphology and geometry of the cosmic web encoded in the 21-cm intensity maps. This chapter presents forecasts of the detectability of these higher-order statistics in the context of the future SKAO observations. These forecasts incorporate instrumental noise, observational effects, and, in some cases, foreground removal in their analyses. With its unprecedented sensitivity, the future SKAO 21-cm observations will enable us to measure these higher-order statistics more precisely, possibly helping to break degeneracies between astrophysical and cosmological parameters, and maximizing the science outcome from these surveys.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2026

Cosmology with Multi-Wavelength Line Intensity Mapping Synergies in the SKAO Era

Line intensity mapping (LIM) has emerged as a powerful tool for surveying the large-scale structure of the Universe across cosmic time by measuring spatial fluctuations in the cumulative emission of spectral lines from unresolved sources or the intergalactic medium. Besides the most abundant 21-cm hyperfine line of neutral hydrogen, there are bright far-infrared fine-structure lines like [CII] 158 $\mu$m, [OIII] 88 $\mu$m, [NII] 122/205 $\mu$m, and [OI] 63 $\mu$m, as well as mid-/high-$J$ CO rotational transitions, hydrogen Ly$\alpha$ and H$\alpha$ as potential LIM probes. A key opportunity lies in combining and cross-correlating 21-cm intensity maps from SKAO with other line intensity maps, targeted by a range of ongoing and forthcoming LIM experiments that probe overlapping cosmic volumes. Cross-correlation between 21-cm maps and other line tracers mitigates uncorrelated systematics and enhances sensitivity to the underlying matter distribution, while multi-line analyses help disentangle cosmological and astrophysical parameters. Beyond cross-power spectra, higher-order and morphological statistics -- such as cross-bispectra, marked correlations, and morphological measures -- capture non-Gaussian features and the environmental dependence of structure formation. This chapter explores the synergies that can be achieved by combining SKAO observations with other line-intensity mapping experiments, demonstrating how such joint analyses can unlock new insights into galaxy evolution and cosmology.

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arXiv2026

Inferring Cosmology and Astrophysics from the High-redshift 21cm Signal with SKA-Low

The Square Kilometre Array's low frequency telescope (SKA-Low) will enable inference of astrophysical and cosmological parameters from the redshifted 21 cm signal, probing the Cosmic Dawn and Epoch of Reionisation. While the power spectrum is the primary target for initial detection, the inherently non-Gaussian nature of the 21 cm signal, driven by the patchy evolution of ionised regions and spin temperature fluctuations, encodes rich information accessible through higher-order statistics and morphological measurements. Extracting these constraints requires diverse inference tools, encompassing both sophisticated modelling frameworks (analytical, semi-numerical, numerical, and emulators) used to predict the 21 cm signal, and advanced inference techniques (Bayesian, simulation-based, field-level) to connect statistics to the underlying physics. This chapter reviews these tools and explores the constraining power of different statistical probes accessible with SKA-Low, including the power spectrum, statistics beyond order two, moments of the signal distribution, and morphological measures. Combining these complementary statistics is crucial for breaking parameter degeneracies and unveiling the properties of the early Universe. We specifically assess the potential of the initial SKA-Low configuration (AA*) to measure galaxy and IGM properties, demonstrating its capability for early science results. This chapter forms part of a comprehensive set detailing the Epoch of Reionisation and Cosmic Dawn science case for the SKA-Low telescope.

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arXiv2026

Overview of 21cm Experiments at high redshift with SKAO

We provide an overview of the eight SKAO Science Book chapters that motivate the Epoch of Reionisation and Cosmic Dawn experiments with SKA-Low. We describe the individual SKA-Low experiments and expected sensitivity - power spectrum, tomography, 21-cm forest, cross-correlations, building on the broad observational plan laid out in the 2015 SKA Science Book. Finally, we outline features of the telescope that will be critical for the success of EoR/CD science, e.g., beam apodization, substations, and multi-beaming.

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arXiv2026

Probing Reionization up to the Mark: The Marked Power Spectrum to unveil the HI 21-cm signal from the EoR

The redshifted 21-cm signal from neutral hydrogen (HI) in the intergalactic medium (IGM) is a powerful probe of the Epoch of Reionization (EoR). Owing to the complex growth and morphology of ionized regions, the 21-cm brightness-temperature field becomes strongly non-Gaussian during the EoR, limiting the information captured by the standard power spectrum alone. While higher-order statistics such as the bispectrum can recover part of this information, they are computationally expensive and often less straightforward to interpret. In this work, we investigate marked statistics as an alternative framework for characterizing the EoR 21-cm signal. Using semi-numerical 21-cm simulations, we introduce a set of EoR-tailored mark functions, inspired by and extending existing marked-statistics ideas, and study both the power spectrum of the mark and that of the marked field. We show that suitably chosen marks can selectively enhance contributions from different IGM environments, capture additional non-Gaussian information beyond the standard power spectrum, and improve the statistical constraining power on EoR model parameters in a Fisher-matrix analysis. These results demonstrate that Fourier-space marked statistics, including both the power spectrum of the mark and that of the marked field, provide a computationally simple and flexible extension of standard two-point statistics for extracting astrophysical information from the EoR 21-cm signal.

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arXiv2026

Probing the large-scale structure with 21cm-galaxy cross-bispectrum: Estimates from simulations and forecasts for upcoming cosmological surveys

The redshifted 21cm signal from the post-reionization epoch is highly non-Gaussian; thus, higher-order statistics, such as the bispectrum, are required to extract this non-Gaussian information. However, high signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) detection of the 21cm auto-bispectrum will be hindered by the presence of residual systematics. Cross-correlating the 21cm signal with galaxies offers a promising path to suppress this uncertainty from residual systematics and potentially increase the SNR. We present a comprehensive analysis of the HI-galaxy cross-bispectrum using the predictions of theoretical galaxy evolution models defined on large cosmological volumes. Our analysis includes the cross-bispectrum for different triangle sizes and shapes, as well as for different combinations of the HI and galaxy fields. We forecast the detectability of the 21cm-galaxy cross-bispectrum at redshift $z\approx1$ with the Euclid-like galaxy survey and SKA-Mid observations in both interferometric and single-dish modes of the survey. We find that the 21cm-galaxy cross-bispectrum shows enhanced detectability compared to the 21cm auto-bispectrum for all unique triangles in the interferometric mode of observations. We forecast a 10$\sigma$ detection of the cross-bispectrum for squeezed-limit triangles and a 100$\sigma$ detection for all shapes combined for scales $0.2~\text{Mpc}^{-1}\leq k_1 \leq 0.9~\text{Mpc}^{-1}$ with 100 hours of SKA-Mid observations per pointing. However, the detectability of the cross-bispectrum for large scales ($k_1 < 0.1~\text{Mpc}^{-1}$), which is accessible with the single-dish mode of the survey, is limited by cosmic variance. Additionally, the signal loss due to foreground removal further suppresses the detectability. Our analysis presents a first step toward an end-to-end analysis pipeline for the future 21cm-galaxy cross-bispectrum observations.

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arXiv2026

Interpreting the HI 21-cm cosmology maps through Largest Cluster Statistics III: Impact of the lightcone effect

The redshifted 21-cm signal emitted by neutral Hydrogen (HI) is a promising probe to understand the evolution of the topology of ionized regions during the Epoch of Reionization (EoR). The topology of ionized regions allows us to infer the nature and properties of ionizing sources, i.e., early galaxies and AGNs. Traditional Fourier statistics, such as the power spectrum, help us quantify the strength of fluctuations in this field at different length scales but do not preserve its phase information. Analyzing the 21-cm brightness temperature field in the image domain retains its non-Gaussian characteristics and morphological information. One such approach is to track the coalescence of multiple ionized regions to form one contiguous ionized region spanning the universe. This is referred to as percolation, and its onset is quantified by a sharp rise in the value of the Largest Cluster Statistic (LCS) approaching unity. In this work, we carry out a percolation analysis of 21-cm brightness temperature fields by studying the redshift evolution of the LCS along a lightcone to distinguish between several simulated reionization scenarios. We have extended previous results on reionization model comparison from the analysis of coeval 21-cm maps to understand how the lightcone effect biases the observed percolation behavior and affects the distinguishability of the source models. We estimate the LCS of subvolumes of different sizes in the 21-cm lightcone maps and study their redshift evolution for different reionization scenarios using a moving volume approach. We find that the percolation transition inferred from a lightcone approaches that from the coeval box as we increase the bandwidth of the moving volume in all but one reionization scenario.

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arXiv2025

CosmoUiT: A Vision Transformer-UNet Hybrid for Fast and Accurate Emulation of 21-cm Maps from the Epoch of Reionization

The observation of the redshifted 21-cm signal from the intergalactic medium will probe the epoch of reionization (EoR) with unprecedented detail. Various simulations are being developed and used to predict and understand the nature and morphology of this signal. However, these simulations are computationally very expensive and time-consuming to produce in large numbers. To overcome this problem, an efficient field-level emulator of this signal is required. However, the EoR 21-cm signal is highly non-Gaussian; therefore, capturing the correlations between different scales of this signal, which is directly related to the evolution of the reionization, with the neural network is quite difficult. Here, we introduce CosmoUiT, a UNet integrated vision transformer-based architecture, to overcome these difficulties. CosmoUiT emulates the 3D cubes of 21-cm signal from the EoR, for a given input dark matter density field, halo density field, and reionization parameters. CosmoUiT uses the multi-head self-attention mechanism of the transformer to capture the long-range dependencies and convolutional layers in the UNet to capture the small-scale variations in the target 21-cm field. Furthermore, the training of the emulator is conditioned on the input reionization parameters such that it gives a fast and accurate prediction of the 21-cm field for different sets of input reionization parameters. We evaluate the predictions of our emulator by comparing various statistics (e.g., bubble size distribution, power spectrum) and morphological features of the emulated and simulated maps. We further demonstrate that this vision transformer-based architecture can emulate the entire 3D 21-cm signal cube with high accuracy at both large and small scales.

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arXiv2025

From ANN to BNN: Inferring Reionization Parameters using Uncertainty-aware Emulators of 21-cm Summaries

Inferring astrophysical parameters from radio interferometric observations of the redshifted 21-cm signal from the Epoch of Reionization (EoR) is a challenging yet crucial task. The 21-cm signal from EoR is expected to be highly non-Gaussian; therefore, we need to use higher-order statistics, e.g., bispectrum. Moreover, the forward modeling of the signal and its statistics for a varying set of model parameters requires rerunning the simulations many times, which is computationally very expensive. To overcome this challenge, many artificial neural network (ANN) based emulators have been introduced, which produce the 21-cm summaries in a fraction of the time. However, ANN emulators have a drawback: they can only produce point-value predictions; thus, they fail to capture the uncertainty associated with their predictions. Therefore, when such emulators are used in the Bayesian inference pipeline, they cannot naturally propagate their prediction uncertainties to the estimated model parameters. To address this problem, we have developed Bayesian neural network (BNN) emulators for the 21-cm signal statistics, which provide the posterior distribution of the predicted signal statistics, including their prediction uncertainty. We use these BNN emulators in our Bayesian inference pipeline to infer the EoR parameters through 21-cm summaries of the mock observation of 21-cm signal with telescopic noise for $1000$ hr of SKA-LOW observation. We show that BNN emulators can capture the prediction uncertainty for the 21-cm power spectrum and bispectrum, and using these emulators in the inference pipeline provides better and tighter constraints on them. We reduced the training dataset and showed that, for smaller training datasets, BNN outperforms the ANN emulators. We also show that using the bispectrum as a summary statistic gives better constraints on EoR parameters than the power spectrum.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2025

Ultraviolet photon production rates of the first stars: Impact on the He II $\lambda$ 1640 \AA{} emission line from primordial star clusters and the 21-cm signal from cosmic dawn

The first stars, the chemically pristine Population III, likely played an important role in heating the intergalactic medium during the epoch of cosmic dawn. The very high effective temperatures ($\sim 10^5$ K) predicted for the most massive Population III stars could also give rise to tell-tale signatures in the emission-line spectra of early star clusters or small galaxies dominated by such stars. Important quantities in modelling their observational signatures include their photon production rates at ultraviolet energies at which photons are able to ionize hydrogen and helium, dissociate molecular hydrogen and cause Lyman-$\alpha$ heating. Here, we model the spectral energy distributions of Population III stars to explore how these key quantities are affected by the initial mass and rotation of Population III stars given a wide range of models for the evolution of these stars. Our results indicate that rotating Population III stars that evolve to effective temperatures $\sim 2\times 10^5$ K could potentially give rise to a very strong HeII 1640 emission line in the spectra from primordial star clusters, without requiring stellar masses of $\gtrsim 100\ \mathrm{M}_\odot$ indicated by previous models for non-rotating Population III stars. The observable impact on 21-cm signatures from cosmic dawn and the epoch of reionization from our set of rotating stars that evolve to $\sim 2\times 10^5$ K is modest, except in case of high Population~III star formation efficiencies which imprint potentially detectable features in the global 21-cm signal and 21-cm power spectrum.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2025

The Effect of Large Optical Depths on the Non-Gaussian 21-cm signal from Cosmic Dawn

During the Cosmic Dawn (CD), the HI 21-cm optical depth ($\tau$ ) in the intergalactic medium can become significantly large. Consequently, the second and higher-order terms of $\tau$ appearing in the Taylor expansion of the HI 21-cm differential brightness temperature ($\delta T_{\rm b}$ ) become important. This introduces additional non-Gaussianity into the signal. We study the impact of large $\tau$ on statistical quantities of HI 21-cm signal using a suite of standard numerical simulations that vary X-ray heating efficiency and the minimum halo mass required to host radiation sources. We find that the higher order terms suppress statistical quantities such as skewness, power-spectrum and bispectrum. However, the effect is found to be particularly strong on the non-Gaussian signal. We find that the change in skewness can reach several hundred percent in low X-ray heating scenarios, whereas for moderate and high X-ray heating models changes are around $\sim40\%$ and $60\%$, respectively, for $M_{\rm h,min}=10^{9}\, {\rm M}_{\odot}$. This change is around $\sim 75\%$, $25\%$ and $20\%$ for low, moderate and high X-ray heating models, respectively, for $M_{\rm h,min}=10^{10}\, {\rm M}_{\odot}$. The change in bispectrum in both the halo cutoff mass scenarios ranges from $\sim 10\%$ to $\sim 300\%$ for low X-ray heating model. However, for moderate and high X-ray heating models the change remains between $\sim 10\%$ to $\sim 200\%$ for both equilateral and squeezed limit triangle configuration. Finally, we find that up to third orders of $\tau$ need to be retained to accurately model $\delta T_{\rm b}$, especially for capturing the non-Gaussian features in the HI 21-cm signal.

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arXiv2024

Impact of the Epoch of Reionization sources on the 21-cm bispectrum

The morphology of the 21-cm signal emitted by the neutral hydrogen present in the intergalactic medium (IGM) during the Epoch of Reionization (EoR) depends both on the properties of the sources of ionizing radiation and on the underlying physical processes within the IGM. Variation in the morphology of the IGM 21-cm signal due to the different sources of the EoR is expected to have a significant impact on the 21-cm bispectrum, which is one of the crucial observable statistics that can evaluate the non-Gaussianity present in the signal and which can be estimated from radio interferometric observations of the EoR. Here we present the 21-cm bispectrum for different reionization scenarios assuming different simulated models for the sources of reionization. We also demonstrate how well the 21-cm bispectrum can distinguish between different IGM 21-cm signal morphologies, arising due to the differences in the reionization scenarios, which will help us shed light on the nature of the sources of ionizing photons. Our estimated large-scale bispectrum for all unique $k$-triangle shapes shows a significant difference in the magnitude and sign across different reionization scenarios. Additionally, our focused analysis of bispectrum for a few specific $k$-triangle shapes (e.g. squeezed-limit, linear, and shapes in the vicinity of the squeezed-limit) shows that the large scale 21-cm bispectrum can distinguish between reionization scenarios that show inside-out, outside-in and a combination of inside-out and outside-in morphologies. These results highlight the potential of using the 21-cm bispectrum for constraining different reionization scenarios.

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