Adjacent Possible Innovation Dynamics on Local Optima Networks
We propose Local Optima Networks (LONs) as a formal framework for modeling innovation dynamics. A LON is a directed weighted graph in which nodes represent locally stable technological configurations and edges encode transition probabilities between their basins of attraction. We construct LONs from fitness landscapes and model innovating agents as stochastic walkers exploring the adjacent possible on the resulting network. We show that this model simultaneously generates the four main empirical regularities of the discovery-process tradition: sublinear novelty growth (Heaps' law), heavy-tailed frequency distributions (Zipf's law), anomalous fluctuation scaling (Taylor's law), and power-law distributed inter-event times. The exponents fall within empirically observed ranges and are jointly constrained by LON topology. Communities in the LON provide an operational definition of technological paradigms grounded in basin-level accessibility. The LON framework thus bridges the discovery-process and adaptive-search traditions of innovation modeling within a single, parsimonious, and empirically testable representation.