arXiv subjects

Leonidas A. Moustakas

Publications and source records attributed to Leonidas A. Moustakas.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Early Exploration of the Scientific Discovery Space for the Habitable Worlds Observatory

The Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO) is a future NASA flagship mission concept identified by the Astro2020 Decadal Survey as the highest priority for large space missions. HWO should conduct "transformative astrophysics" and search for biosignatures in the atmospheres of approximately 25 potentially Earth-like planets. To further the early-stage development of HWO, NASA formed the Science, Technology, Architecture Review Team (START). In turn, START invited the scientific community to join working groups to explore the potential discovery space. In this paper, we present 70 science cases that resulted from this process. The cases address four scientific pillars: growth of galaxies (15 cases), evolution of the elements (13 cases), solar systems in context (32 cases), and living worlds (10 cases). Combined, they would address 27 of the 30 science questions and discovery areas identified by Astro2020. The 140 observing programs needed for the 70 investigations encompass a rich variety of spectroscopic (for 87% of science cases) and photometric (for 30%) observations extending from the UV to the NIR. Additionally, high-contrast and polarimetric capabilities would be needed for 34% and 27% of science cases, respectively. Access to UV wavelengths is critical: 83% of science cases need data at wavelengths <400 nm, and 26% extend to <100 nm. In the NIR, 26% of science cases need observations at wavelengths >=2000 nm. Pursuing the full portfolio of science would also necessitate precise astrometry for planet mass measurement, rapid response capabilities, a large instantaneous field of regard, non-sidereal tracking, saturation mitigation strategies, and high dynamic range.

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arXiv2025

Double-offset Cassegrain telescopes for the Ultraviolet Type Ia (UVIa) mission concept

Our understanding of cosmology is shaped by Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia), the runaway thermonuclear detonations of white dwarfs via accretion from a companion star. The nature of this companion star is highly debated, with disparate models explaining currently available SNe Ia data. Critical ultraviolet (UV) signatures of SNe Ia progenitors are only observable within the first few days post-detonation. We present the instrument design of UVIa, a proposed SmallSat to make early UV observations of SNe Ia. UVIa conducts simultaneous observations in three photometric channels: far-UV (1500 - 1800 Å), near-UV (1800 - 2400 Å), and Sloan $u$-band (3000 - 4200 Å). UVIa employs two 80 mm double-offset Cassegrain UV telescopes and a similar 50 mm $u$-band telescope, imaging onto three Teledyne e2v CIS120-10-LN CMOS detectors. The UV detectors are delta-doped for enhanced sensitivity, with custom metal-dielectric filters providing further in-band efficiency and red light rejection. The UV optics utilize multi-layer coatings, defining the UV bandpasses and providing additional red light rejection. The instrument design achieves high UV sensitivity (21.5 mag AB) and superior red light rejection ($<$ 10$^{-5}$ throughput), allowing UVIa to make early observations of SNe Ia while serving as a pathfinder for future UV transient telescopes.

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arXiv2025

LensWatch. II. Improved Photometry and Time-delay Constraints on the Strongly Lensed Type Ia Supernova 2022qmx ("SN Zwicky") with HST Template Observations

Strongly lensed supernovae (SNe) are a rare class of transient that can offer tight cosmological constraints that are complementary to methods from other astronomical events. We present a follow-up study of one recently-discovered strongly lensed SN, the quadruply-imaged Type Ia SN 2022qmx (aka, "SN Zwicky") at z = 0.3544. We measure updated, template-subtracted photometry for SN Zwicky and derive improved time delays and magnifications. This is possible because SNe are transient, fading away after reaching their peak brightness. Specifically, we measure point spread function (PSF) photometry for all four images of SN Zwicky in three Hubble Space Telescope WFC3/UVIS passbands (F475W, F625W, F814W) and one WFC3/IR passband (F160W), with template images taken $\sim 11$ months after the epoch in which the SN images appear. We find consistency to within $2σ$ between lens model predicted time delays ($\lesssim1$ day), and measured time delays with HST colors ($\lesssim2$ days), including the uncertainty from chromatic microlensing that may arise from stars in the lensing galaxy. The standardizable nature of SNe Ia allows us to estimate absolute magnifications for the four images, with images A and C being elevated in magnification compared to lens model predictions by about $6σ$ and $3σ$ respectively, confirming previous work. We show that millilensing or differential dust extinction is unable to explain these discrepancies and find evidence for the existence of microlensing in images A, C, and potentially D, that may contribute to the anomalous magnification.

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arXiv2024

Forecasts for Galaxy Formation and Dark Matter Constraints from Dwarf Galaxy Surveys

The abundance of faint dwarf galaxies is determined by the underlying population of low-mass dark matter (DM) halos and the efficiency of galaxy formation in these systems. Here, we quantify potential galaxy formation and DM constraints from future dwarf satellite galaxy surveys. We generate satellite populations using a suite of Milky Way (MW)--mass cosmological zoom-in simulations and an empirical galaxy--halo connection model, and assess sensitivity to galaxy formation and DM signals when marginalizing over galaxy--halo connection uncertainties. We find that a survey of all satellites around one MW-mass host can constrain a galaxy formation cutoff at peak virial masses of $M_{50}=10^8~M_{\mathrm{\odot}}$ at the $1σ$ level; however, a tail toward low $M_{50}$ prevents a $2σ$ measurement. In this scenario, combining hosts with differing bright satellite abundances significantly reduces uncertainties on $M_{50}$ at the $1σ$ level, but the $2σ$ tail toward low $M_{50}$ persists. We project that observations of one (two) complete satellite populations can constrain warm DM models with $m_{\mathrm{WDM}}\approx 10~\mathrm{keV}$ ($20~\mathrm{keV}$). Subhalo mass function (SHMF) suppression can be constrained to $\approx 70\%$, $60\%$, and $50\%$ that in cold dark matter (CDM) at peak virial masses of $10^8$, $10^9$, and $10^{10}~M_{\mathrm{\odot}}$, respectively; SHMF enhancement constraints are weaker ($\approx 20$, $4$, and $2$ times that in CDM, respectively) due to galaxy--halo connection degeneracies. These results motivate searches for faint dwarf galaxies beyond the MW and indicate that ongoing missions like Euclid and upcoming facilities including the Vera C. Rubin Observatory and Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope will probe new galaxy formation and DM physics.

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arXiv2020

Chandra Observations of Abell 2261 Brightest Cluster Galaxy, a Candidate Host to a Recoiling Black Hole

We use Chandra X-ray observations to look for evidence of a recoiling black hole from the brightest cluster galaxy in Abell 2261 (A2261-BCG). A2261-BCG is a strong candidate for a recoiling black hole because of its large, flat stellar core, revealed by Hubble Space Telescope imaging observations. We took 100-ksec observations with Chandra and combined it with 35 ksec of archival observations to look for low-level accretion onto a black hole of expected mass $M\sim10^{10}\ M_{\scriptscriptstyle \odot}$ that could possibly be located in one of four off-center stellar knots near the galaxy's center or else in the optical center of the galaxy or in the location of radio emission. We found no X-ray emission arising from a point source in excess of the cluster gas and can place limits on the accretion of any black hole in the central region to a 2-7 keV flux below $4.3 \times 10^{-16}\ \mathrm{erg\ s^{-1}\ cm^{-2}}$, corresponding to a bolometric Eddington fraction of about $10^{-6}$. Thus there is either no $10^{10}\ M_{\scriptscriptstyle \odot}$ black hole in the core of A2261-BCG, or it is accreting at a low level. We also discuss the morphology of the X-ray emitting gas in the cluster and how its asymmetry is consistent with a large dynamic event.

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arXiv2020

The BUFFALO HST Survey

The Beyond Ultra-deep Frontier Fields and Legacy Observations (BUFFALO) is a 101 orbit + 101 parallel Cycle 25 Hubble Space Telescope Treasury program taking data from 2018-2020. BUFFALO will expand existing coverage of the Hubble Frontier Fields (HFF) in WFC3/IR F105W, F125W, and F160W and ACS/WFC F606W and F814W around each of the six HFF clusters and flanking fields. This additional area has not been observed by HST but is already covered by deep multi-wavelength datasets, including Spitzer and Chandra. As with the original HFF program, BUFFALO is designed to take advantage of gravitational lensing from massive clusters to simultaneously find high-redshift galaxies which would otherwise lie below HST detection limits and model foreground clusters to study properties of dark matter and galaxy assembly. The expanded area will provide a first opportunity to study both cosmic variance at high redshift and galaxy assembly in the outskirts of the large HFF clusters. Five additional orbits are reserved for transient followup. BUFFALO data including mosaics, value-added catalogs and cluster mass distribution models will be released via MAST on a regular basis, as the observations and analysis are completed for the six individual clusters.

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arXiv2019

Quantifying the power spectrum of small-scale structure in semi-analytic galaxies

In the cold dark matter (CDM) picture of structure formation, galaxy mass distributions are predicted to have a considerable amount of structure on small scales. Strong gravitational lensing has proven to be a useful tool for studying this small-scale structure. Much of the attention has been given to detecting individual dark matter subhalos through lens modeling, but recent work has suggested that the full population of subhalos could be probed using a power spectrum analysis. In this paper we quantify the power spectrum of small-scale structure in simulated galaxies, with the goal of understanding theoretical predictions and setting the stage for using measurements of the power spectrum to test dark matter models. We use a sample of simulated galaxies generated from the \texttt{Galacticus} semi-analytic model to determine the power spectrum distribution first in the CDM paradigm and then in a warm dark matter scenario. We find that a measurement of the slope and amplitude of the power spectrum on galaxy strong lensing scales ($k\sim 1$ kpc$^{-1}$) could be used to distinguish between CDM and alternate dark matter models, especially if the most massive subhalos can be directly detected via gravitational imaging.

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arXiv2019

Beyond subhalos: Probing the collective effect of the Universe's small-scale structure with gravitational lensing

Gravitational lensing has emerged as a powerful probe of the matter distribution on subgalactic scales, which itself may contain important clues about the fundamental origins and properties of dark matter. Broadly speaking, two different approaches have been taken in the literature to map the small-scale structure of the Universe using strong lensing, with one focused on measuring the position and mass of a small number of discrete massive subhalos appearing close in projection to lensed images, and the other focused on detecting the collective effect of all the small-scale structure between the lensed source and the observer. In this paper, we follow the latter approach and perform a detailed study of the sensitivity of galaxy-scale gravitational lenses to the ensemble properties of small-scale structure. As in some previous studies, we adopt the language of the substructure power spectrum to characterize the statistical properties of the small-scale density field. We present a comprehensive theory that treats lenses with extended sources as well as those with time-dependent compact sources (such as quasars) in a unified framework for the first time. Our approach uses mode functions to provide both computational advantages and insights about couplings between the lens and source. The goal of this paper is to develop the theory and gain the intuition necessary to understand how the sensitivity to the substructure power spectrum depends on the source and lens properties, with the eventual aim of identifying the most promising targets for such studies.

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arXiv2019

The Most Powerful Lenses in the Universe: Quasar Microlensing as a Probe of the Lensing Galaxy

Optical and X-ray observations of strongly gravitationally lensed quasars (especially when four separate images of the quasar are produced) determine not only the amount of matter in the lensing galaxy but also how much is in a smooth component and how much is composed of compact masses (e.g., stars, stellar remnants, primordial black holes, CDM sub-halos, and planets). Future optical surveys will discover hundreds to thousands of quadruply lensed quasars, and sensitive X-ray observations will unambiguously determine the ratio of smooth to clumpy matter at specific locations in the lensing galaxies and calibrate the stellar mass fundamental plane, providing a determination of the stellar $M/L$. A modest observing program with a sensitive, sub-arcsecond X-ray imager, combined with the planned optical observations, can make those determinations for a large number (hundreds) of the lensing galaxies, which will span a redshift range of $\sim$$0.25<z<1.5$

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arXiv2019

The effect of dark matter-dark radiation interactions on halo abundance -- a Press-Schechter approach

We study halo mass functions with the Press-Schechter formalism for interacting dark matter models, where matter power spectra are damped due to dark acoustic oscillations in the early universe. After adopting a smooth window function, we calibrate the analytical model with numerical simulations from the "effective theory of structure formation" (ETHOS) project and fix the model parameters in the high mass regime, $M_{\rm h}\gtrsim3\times10^{10}\;{\rm M}_{\odot}$. We also perform high-resolution cosmological simulations with halo masses down to $M_{\rm h}\sim10^8\;{\rm M}_{\odot}$ to cover a wide mass range for comparison. Although the model is calibrated with ETHOS1 and CDM simulations for high halo masses at redshift $z=0$, it successfully reproduces simulations for two other ETHOS models in the low mass regime at low and high redshifts. As an application, we compare the cumulative number density of haloes to that of observed galaxies at $z=6$, and find the interacting dark matter models with a kinetic decoupling temperature below $0.5\ \rm{keV}$ is disfavored. We also perform the abundance-matching analysis and derive the stellar-halo mass relation for these models at $z=4$. Suppression in halo abundance leads to less massive haloes that host observed galaxies in the stellar mass range $M_*\simeq 10^5-10^7\ {\rm M}_{\odot}$.

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arXiv2018

The Sloan Lens ACS Survey. XIII. Discovery of 40 New Galaxy-Scale Strong Lenses

We present the full sample of 118 galaxy-scale strong-lens candidates in the Sloan Lens ACS (SLACS) Survey for the Masses (S4TM) Survey, which are spectroscopically selected from the final data release of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. Follow-up Hubble Space Telescope (HST) imaging observations confirm that 40 candidates are definite strong lenses with multiple lensed images. The foreground lens galaxies are found to be early-type galaxies (ETGs) at redshifts 0.06 to 0.44, and background sources are emission-line galaxies at redshifts 0.22 to 1.29. As an extension of the SLACS Survey, the S4TM Survey is the first attempt to preferentially search for strong-lens systems with relatively lower lens masses than those in the pre-existing strong-lens samples. By fitting HST data with a singular isothermal ellipsoid model, we find total projected mass within the Einstein radius of the S4TM strong-lens sample ranges from $3 \times10^{10} M_{\odot}$ to $2 \times10^{11} M_{\odot}$. In [Shu15], we have derived the total stellar mass of the S4TM lenses to be $5 \times10^{10} M_{\odot}$ to $1 \times10^{12} M_{\odot}$. Both total enclosed mass and stellar mass of the S4TM lenses are on average almost a factor of 2 smaller than those of the SLACS lenses, which also represent typical mass scales of the current strong-lens samples. The extended mass coverage provided by the S4TM sample can enable a direct test, with the aid of strong lensing, for transitions in scaling relations, kinematic properties, mass structure, and dark-matter content trends of ETGs at intermediate-mass scales as noted in previous studies.

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arXiv2017

A Radio Relic and a Search for the Central Black Hole in the Abell 2261 Brightest Cluster Galaxy

We present VLA images and HST/STIS spectra of sources within the center of the brightest cluster galaxy (BCG) in Abell 2261. These observations were obtained to test the hypothesis that its extremely large, flat core reflects the ejection of its supermassive black hole. Spectra of three of the four most luminous "knots" embedded in the core were taken to test whether one may represent stars bound to a displaced massive black hole. The three knots have radial velocity offsets dV < ~150 km/s from the BCG. Knots 2 and 3 show kinematics, colors, and stellar masses consistent with infalling low-mass galaxies or larger stripped cluster members. Large errors in the stellar velocity dispersion of Knot 1, however, mean that we cannot rule out the hypothesis that it hosts a high-mass black hole. A2261-BCG has a compact, relic radio-source offset by 6.5 kpc (projected) from the optical core's center, but no active radio core that would pinpoint the galaxy's central black hole to a tight 10 GHz flux limit <3.6 uJy. Its spectrum and morphology are suggestive of an active galactic nucleus that switched off >48 Myr ago, with an equipartition condition magnetic field of 15 uG. These observations are still consistent with the hypothesis that the nuclear black hole has been ejected from its core, but the critical task of locating the supermassive black hole or demonstrating that A2261-BCG lacks one remains to be done.

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arXiv2017

The Effects of Ram-pressure Stripping and Supernova Winds on the Tidal Stirring of Disky Dwarfs: Enhanced Transformation into Dwarf Spheroidals

A conclusive model for the formation of dwarf spheroidal (dSph) galaxies still remains elusive. Owing to their proximity to the massive spirals Milky Way (MW) and M31, various environmental processes have been invoked to explain their origin. In this context, the tidal stirring model postulates that interactions with MW-sized hosts can transform rotationally supported dwarfs, resembling present-day dwarf irregular (dIrr) galaxies, into systems with the kinematic and structural properties of dSphs. Using N-body+SPH simulations, we investigate the dependence of this transformation mechanism on the gas fraction, fgas, in the disk of the progenitor dwarf. Our numerical experiments incorporate for the first time the combined effects of radiative cooling, ram-pressure stripping, star formation, supernova (SN) winds, and a cosmic UV background. For a given orbit inside the primary galaxy, rotationally supported dwarfs with gas fractions akin to those of observed dIrrs (fgas >= 0.5), demonstrate a substantially enhanced likelihood and efficiency of transformation into dSphs relative to their collisionless (fgas = 0) counterparts. We argue that the combination of ram-pressure stripping and SN winds causes the gas-rich dwarfs to respond more impulsively to tides, augmenting their transformation. When fgas >= 0.5, disky dwarfs on previously unfavorable low-eccentricity or large-pericenter orbits are still able to transform. On the widest orbits, the transformation is incomplete; the dwarfs retain significant rotational support, a relatively flat shape, and some gas, naturally resembling transition-type systems. We conclude that tidal stirring constitutes a prevalent evolutionary mechanism for shaping the structure of dwarf galaxies within the currently favored CDM cosmological paradigm.

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arXiv2016

A Dark Census: Statistically Detecting the Satellite Populations of Distant Galaxies

In the standard structure formation scenario based on the cold dark matter paradigm, galactic halos are predicted to contain a large population of dark matter subhalos. While the most massive members of the subhalo population can appear as luminous satellites and be detected in optical surveys, establishing the existence of the low mass and mostly dark subhalos has proven to be a daunting task. Galaxy-scale strong gravitational lenses have been successfully used to study mass substructures lying close to lensed images of bright background sources. However, in typical galaxy-scale lenses, the strong lensing region only covers a small projected area of the lens's dark matter halo, implying that the vast majority of subhalos cannot be directly detected in lensing observations. In this paper, we point out that this large population of dark satellites can collectively affect gravitational lensing observables, hence possibly allowing their statistical detection. Focusing on the region of the galactic halo outside the strong lensing area, we compute from first principles the statistical properties of perturbations to the gravitational time delay and position of lensed images in the presence of a mass substructure population. We find that in the standard cosmological scenario, the statistics of these lensing observables are well approximated by Gaussian distributions. The formalism developed as part of this calculation is very general and can be applied to any halo geometry and choice of subhalo mass function. Our results significantly reduce the computational cost of including a large substructure population in lens models and enable the use of Bayesian inference techniques to detect and characterize the distributed satellite population of distant lens galaxies.

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arXiv2016

Kiloparsec Mass/Light Offsets in the Galaxy Pair-Ly$α$ Emitter Lens System SDSS\,J1011$+$0143

We report the discovery of significant mass/light offsets in the strong gravitational lensing system SDSS\,J1011$+$0143. We use the high-resolution \textsl{Hubble Space Telescope} (\textsl{HST}) F555W- and F814W-band imaging and Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) spectroscopy of this system, which consists of a close galaxy pair with a projected separation of $\approx 4.2$ kpc at $z_{\rm lens} \sim 0.331$ lensing a Ly$α$ emitter (LAE) at $z_{\rm source} = 2.701$. Comparisons between the mass peaks inferred from lens models and light peaks from \textsl{HST} imaging data reveal significant spatial mass/light offsets as large as $1.72 \pm 0.24 \pm 0.34$ kpc in both filter bands. Such large mass/light offsets, not seen in isolated field lens galaxies and relaxed galaxy groups, may be related to the interactions between the two lens galaxies. The detected mass/light offsets can potentially serve as an important test for the self-interacting dark matter model. However, other mechanisms such as dynamical friction on spatially differently distributed dark matter and stars could produce similar offsets. Detailed hydrodynamical simulations of galaxy-galaxy interactions with self-interacting dark matter could accurately quantify the effects of different mechanisms. The background LAE is found to contain three distinct star-forming knots with characteristic sizes from 116 pc to 438 pc. It highlights the power of strong gravitational lensing in probing the otherwise too faint and unresolved structures of distance objects below subkiloparsec or even 100 pc scales through its magnification effect.

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arXiv2015

CLASH-X: A Comparison of Lensing and X-ray Techniques for Measuring the Mass Profiles of Galaxy Clusters

We present profiles of temperature (Tx), gas mass, and hydrostatic mass estimated from new and archival X-ray observations of CLASH clusters. We compare measurements derived from XMM and Chandra observations with one another and compare both to gravitational lensing mass profiles derived with CLASH HST and ground-based lensing data. Radial profiles of Chandra and XMM electron density and enclosed gas mass are nearly identical, indicating that differences in hydrostatic masses inferred from X-ray observations arise from differences in Tx measurements. Encouragingly, cluster Txs are consistent with one another at ~100-200 kpc radii but XMM Tx systematically decline relative to Chandra Tx at larger radii. The angular dependence of the discrepancy suggests additional investigation on systematics such as the XMM point spread function correction, vignetting and off-axis responses. We present the CLASH-X mass-profile comparisons in the form of cosmology-independent and redshift-independent circular-velocity profiles. Ratios of Chandra HSE mass profiles to CLASH lensing profiles show no obvious radial dependence in the 0.3-0.8 Mpc range. However, the mean mass biases inferred from the WL and SaWLens data are different. e.g., the weighted-mean value at 0.5 Mpc is = 0.12 for the WL comparison and = -0.11 for the SaWLens comparison. The ratios of XMM HSE mass profiles to CLASH lensing profiles show a pronounced radial dependence in the 0.3-1.0 Mpc range, with a weighted mean mass bias of value rising to ~0.3 at ~1 Mpc for the WL comparison and of 0.25 for SaWLens comparison. The enclosed gas mass profiles from both Chandra and XMM rise to a value 1/8 times the total-mass profiles inferred from lensing at 0.5 Mpc and remain constant outside of that radius, suggesting that [8xMgas] profiles may be an excellent proxy for total-mass profiles at >0.5 Mpc in massive galaxy clusters.

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arXiv2015

The Sloan Lens ACS Survey. XII. Extending Strong Lensing to Lower Masses

We present observational results from a new Hubble Space Telescope (HST) Snapshot program to extend the methods of the Sloan Lens ACS (SLACS) Survey to lower lens-galaxy masses. We discover 40 new galaxy-scale strong lenses, which we supplement with 58 previously discovered SLACS lenses. In addition, we determine the posterior PDFs of the Einstein radius for 33 galaxies (18 new and 15 from legacy SLACS data) based on single lensed images. We find a less-than-unity slope of $0.64\pm0.06$ for the $\log_{10} σ_*$-$\log_{10} σ_{\rm SIE}$ relation, which corresponds to a 6-$σ$ evidence that the total mass-density profile of early-type galaxies varies systematically in the sense of being shallower at higher lens-galaxy velocity dispersions. The trend is only significant when single-image systems are considered, highlighting the importance of including both "lenses" and "non-lenses" for an unbiased treatment of the lens population when extending to lower mass ranges. By scaling simple stellar population models to the HST I-band data, we identify a strong trend of increasing dark-matter fraction at higher velocity dispersions, which can be alternatively interpreted as a trend in the stellar initial mass function (IMF) normalization. Consistent with previous findings and the suggestion of a non-universal IMF, we find that a Salpeter IMF is ruled out for galaxies with velocity dispersion less than $180$ km/s. Considered together, our mass-profile and dark-matter-fraction trends with increasing galaxy mass could both be explained by an increasing relative contribution on kiloparsec scales from a dark-matter halo with a spatial profile more extended than that of the stellar component.

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arXiv2014

Strong Lens Time Delay Challenge: II. Results of TDC1

We present the results of the first strong lens time delay challenge. The motivation, experimental design, and entry level challenge are described in a companion paper. This paper presents the main challenge, TDC1, which consisted of analyzing thousands of simulated light curves blindly. The observational properties of the light curves cover the range in quality obtained for current targeted efforts (e.g.,~COSMOGRAIL) and expected from future synoptic surveys (e.g.,~LSST), and include simulated systematic errors. \nteamsA\ teams participated in TDC1, submitting results from \nmethods\ different method variants. After a describing each method, we compute and analyze basic statistics measuring accuracy (or bias) $A$, goodness of fit $χ^2$, precision $P$, and success rate $f$. For some methods we identify outliers as an important issue. Other methods show that outliers can be controlled via visual inspection or conservative quality control. Several methods are competitive, i.e., give $|A|<0.03$, $P<0.03$, and $χ^2<1.5$, with some of the methods already reaching sub-percent accuracy. The fraction of light curves yielding a time delay measurement is typically in the range $f = $20--40\%. It depends strongly on the quality of the data: COSMOGRAIL-quality cadence and light curve lengths yield significantly higher $f$ than does sparser sampling. Taking the results of TDC1 at face value, we estimate that LSST should provide around 400 robust time-delay measurements, each with $P<0.03$ and $|A|<0.01$, comparable to current lens modeling uncertainties. In terms of observing strategies, we find that $A$ and $f$ depend mostly on season length, while P depends mostly on cadence and campaign duration.

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