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Lev Guzmán-Vargas

Publications and source records attributed to Lev Guzmán-Vargas.

2 recordsLinked to original sources

Neural Networks Measure Peace Levels from News Data similar to Peace Indices

Traditional methods for assessing national peace levels typically rely on socio-economic indicators or conflict incidence, often overlooking the nuanced signals embedded in public discourse. This study presents a novel computational framework to quantify peace levels by analyzing the structural and stylistic features of news text, rather than solely its content. Using the News on the Web (NOW) corpus comprising articles from 20 countries, we evaluate the efficacy of advanced word embeddings managed via ChromaDB compared to standard Doc2Vec models. We propose a 1D Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) architecture for classification and regression tasks, contrasting its performance against a k-Nearest Neighbors (k-NN) baseline. Our results demonstrate that the Neural Network significantly outperforms the k-NN model in classification metrics and, crucially, preserves the numerical relationship of peace rankings, exhibiting a strong correlation with the Positive Peace Index (PPI) even for out-of-sample countries. These findings suggest that the how of communication - the latent linguistic structures - serves as a robust, emergent indicator of societal stability. This research offers a non-invasive, scalable tool for real-time monitoring of social and societal dynamics and peacebuilding efforts.

physics.soc-ph↗

Generalization of Higuchi's fractal dimension for multifractal analysis of time series with limited length

We introduce a generalization of Higuchi's estimator of the fractal dimension as a new way to characterize the multifractal spectrum of univariate time series. The resulting multifractal Higuchi dimension analysis (MF-HDA) method considers the order-$q$ moments of the partition function provided by the length of the time series graph at different levels of subsampling. The results obtained for different types of stochastic processes as well as real-world examples of word length series from fictional texts demonstrate that MF-HDA provides a reliable estimate of the multifractal spectrum already for moderate time series lengths. Practical advantages as well as disadvantages of the new approach as compared to other state-of-the-art methods of multifractal analysis are discussed, highlighting the particular potentials of MF-HDA to distinguish mono- from multi-fractal dynamics based on relatively short time series.

physics.data-an↗