arXiv subjects

Li Jin

Publications and source records attributed to Li Jin.

At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources

arXiv2020

Forecasting and evaluating intervention of Covid-19 in the World

When the Covid-19 pandemic enters dangerous new phase, whether and when to take aggressive public health interventions to slow down the spread of COVID-19. To develop the artificial intelligence (AI) inspired methods for real-time forecasting and evaluating intervention strategies to curb the spread of Covid-19 in the World. A modified auto-encoder for modeling the transmission dynamics of the epidemics is developed and applied to the surveillance data of cumulative and new Covid-19 cases and deaths from WHO, as of March 16, 2020. The average errors of 5-step forecasting were 2.5%. The total peak number of cumulative cases and new cases, and the maximum number of cumulative cases in the world with later intervention (comprehensive public health intervention is implemented 4 weeks later) could reach 75,249,909, 10,086,085, and 255,392,154, respectively. The case ending time was January 10, 2021. However, the total peak number of cumulative cases and new cases and the maximum number of cumulative cases in the world with one week later intervention were reduced to 951,799, 108,853 and 1,530,276, respectively. Duration time of the Covid-19 spread would be reduced from 356 days to 232 days. The case ending time was September 8, 2020. We observed that delaying intervention for one month caused the maximum number of cumulative cases to increase 166.89 times, and the number of deaths increase from 53,560 to 8,938,725. We will face disastrous consequences if immediate action to intervene is not taken.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2020

Resilience of Dynamic Routing in the Face of Recurrent and Random Sensing Faults

Feedback dynamic routing is a commonly used control strategy in transportation systems. This class of control strategies relies on real-time information about the traffic state in each link. However, such information may not always be observable due to temporary sensing faults. In this article, we consider dynamic routing over two parallel routes, where the sensing on each link is subject to recurrent and random faults. The faults occur and clear according to a finite-state Markov chain. When the sensing is faulty on a link, the traffic state on that link appears to be zero to the controller. Building on the theories of Markov processes and monotone dynamical systems, we derive lower and upper bounds for the resilience score, i.e. the guaranteed throughput of the network, in the face of sensing faults by establishing stability conditions for the network. We use these results to study how a variety of key parameters affect the resilience score of the network. The main conclusions are: (i) Sensing faults can reduce throughput and destabilize a nominally stable network; (ii) A higher failure rate does not necessarily reduce throughput, and there may exist a worst rate that minimizes throughput; (iii) Higher correlation between the failure probabilities of two links leads to greater throughput; (iv) A large difference in capacity between two links can result in a drop in throughput.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2020

Artificial Intelligence Forecasting of Covid-19 in China

BACKGROUND An alternative to epidemiological models for transmission dynamics of Covid-19 in China, we propose the artificial intelligence (AI)-inspired methods for real-time forecasting of Covid-19 to estimate the size, lengths and ending time of Covid-19 across China. METHODS We developed a modified stacked auto-encoder for modeling the transmission dynamics of the epidemics. We applied this model to real-time forecasting the confirmed cases of Covid-19 across China. The data were collected from January 11 to February 27, 2020 by WHO. We used the latent variables in the auto-encoder and clustering algorithms to group the provinces/cities for investigating the transmission structure. RESULTS We forecasted curves of cumulative confirmed cases of Covid-19 across China from Jan 20, 2020 to April 20, 2020. Using the multiple-step forecasting, the estimated average errors of 6-step, 7-step, 8-step, 9-step and 10-step forecasting were 1.64%, 2.27%, 2.14%, 2.08%, 0.73%, respectively. We predicted that the time points of the provinces/cities entering the plateau of the forecasted transmission dynamic curves varied, ranging from Jan 21 to April 19, 2020. The 34 provinces/cities were grouped into 9 clusters. CONCLUSIONS The accuracy of the AI-based methods for forecasting the trajectory of Covid-19 was high. We predicted that the epidemics of Covid-19 will be over by the middle of April. If the data are reliable and there are no second transmissions, we can accurately forecast the transmission dynamics of the Covid-19 across the provinces/cities in China. The AI-inspired methods are a powerful tool for helping public health planning and policymaking.

q-bio.OT↗

arXiv2019

Security Risk Analysis of the Shorter-Queue Routing Policy for Two Symmetric Servers

In this article, we study the classical shortest queue problem under the influence of malicious attacks, which is relevant to a variety of engineering system including transportation, manufacturing, and communications. We consider a homogeneous Poisson arrival process of jobs and two parallel exponential servers with symmetric service rates. A system operator route incoming jobs to the shorter queue; if the queues are equal, the job is routed randomly. A malicious attacker is able to intercept the operator's routing instruction and overwrite it with a randomly generated one. The operator is able to defend individual jobs to ensure correct routing. Both attacking and defending induce technological costs. The attacker's (resp. operator's) decision is the probability of attacking (resp. defending) the routing of each job. We first quantify the queuing cost for given strategy profiles by deriving a theoretical upper bound for the cost. Then, we formulate a non-zero-sum attacker-defender game, characterize the equilibria in multiple regimes, and quantify the security risk. We find that the attacker's best strategy is either to attack all jobs or not to attack, and the defender's strategy is strongly influenced by the arrival rate of jobs. Finally, as a benchmark, we compare the security risks of the feedback-controlled system to a corresponding open-loop system with Bernoulli routing. We show that the shorter-queue policy has a higher (resp. lower) security risk than the Bernoulli policy if the demand is lower (resp. higher) than the service rate of one server.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2019

Analysis of a Stochastic Model for Coordinated Platooning of Heavy-duty Vehicles

Platooning of heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs) is a key component of smart and connected highways and is expected to bring remarkable fuel savings and emission reduction. In this paper, we study the coordination of HDV platooning on a highway section. We model the arrival of HDVs as a Poisson process. Multiple HDVs are merged into one platoon if their headways are below a given threshold. The merging is done by accelerating the following vehicles to catch up with the leading ones. We characterize the following random variables: (i) platoon size, (ii) headway between platoons, and (iii) travel time increment due to platoon formation. We formulate and solve an optimization problem to determine the headway threshold for platooning that leads to minimal cost (time plus fuel). We also compare our results with that from Simulation of Urban MObility (SUMO).

eess.SY↗

arXiv2019

Evaluation of Headway Threshold-based Coordinated Platooning over a Cascade of Highway Junctions

Platooning of vehicles with coordinated adaptive cruise control (CACC) capabilities is a promising technology with a strong potential for fuel savings and congestion mitigation. Although some researchers have studied the vehicle-level fuel savings of platooning, few have considered the system-level benefits. This paper evaluates vehicle platooning as a fuel-reduction method and propose a hierarchical control system. We particularly focus on the impact of platooning coordination algorithm on system-wide benefits. The main task of platooning coordination is to regulate the times at which multiple vehicles arrive at a particular junction: these vehicles can platoon only if they meet (i.e. arrive within a common time interval) at the junction. We use a micro-simulation model to evaluate a class of threshold-based coordination strategies and derive insights about the trade-off between the fuel savings due to air drag reduction in platoons and the extra fuel consumption due to the coordination (i.e. acceleration of some vehicles to catch up with the leading ones). The model is calibrated using real traffic data of a section of Interstate 210 in the Los Angeles metropolitan area. We study the relation between key decision variables, including the platooning threshold and the coordination radius, and key performance metric, fuel consumption.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2019

Behavior and Management of Stochastic Multiple-Origin-Destination Traffic Flows Sharing a Common Link

In transportation systems (e.g. highways, railways, airports), traffic flows with distinct origin-destination pairs usually share common facilities and interact extensively. Such interaction is typically stochastic due to natural fluctuations in the traffic flows. In this paper, we study the interaction between multiple traffic flows and propose intuitive but provably efficient control algorithms based on modern sensing and actuating capabilities. We decompose the problem into two sub-problems: the impact of a merging junction and the impact of a diverging junction. We use a fluid model to show that (i) appropriate choice of priority at the merging junction is decisive for stability of the upstream queues and (ii) discharging priority at the diverging junction does not affect stability. We also illustrate the insights of our analysis via an example of management of multi-class traffic flows with platooning.

math.OC↗

arXiv2019

Throughput-Improving Control of Highways Facing Stochastic Perturbations

In this paper, we study the problem of traffic management in highways facing stochastic perturbations. To model the macroscopic traffic flow under perturbations, we use cell-transmission model with Markovian capacities. The decision variables are: (i) the admissible flow through each on-ramp, and (ii) whether individual on-ramps are metered to prioritize the mainline traffic or not. The objective is to maximize the throughput while ensuring that on-ramp queues remain bounded on average. We develop a computational approach to solving this stability-constrained, throughput-maximization problem. We establish a mixed-integer linear program for throughput maximization and construct an algorithm that gives the optimal solution in particular settings. We illustrate the performance benefits of the proposed approach through a computational study on a segment of Interstate 210 in California, USA.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2019

Analyzing a Tandem Fluid Queueing Model with Stochastic Capacity and Spillback

The tandem fluid queueing model is a useful tool for performance analysis and control design for a variety of transportation systems. In this article, we study the joint impact of stochastic capacity and spillback on the long-time properties of this model. Our analysis focuses on the system of two fluid queueing links in series. The upstream link has a constant capacity (saturation rate) and an infinite buffer size. The downstream link has a stochastic capacity and a finite buffer size. Queue spillback occurs when the the downstream link is full. We derive a necessary condition and a sufficient condition for the total queue length to be bounded on average. The necessary (resp. sufficient) condition leads to an upper (resp. lower) bound for the throughput of the two-link system. Using our results, we analyze the sensitivity of throughput of the two-link system with respect to the frequency and intensity of capacity disruptions, and to the buffer size. In addition, we discuss how our analysis can be extended to feedback-controlled systems and to networks consisting of merges and splits.

math.OC↗

arXiv2019

Resilient UAV Traffic Congestion Control using Fluid Queuing Models

In this paper, we address the issue of congestion in future Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAVs) traffic system in uncertain weather. We treat the traffic of UAVs as fluid queues, and introduce models for traffic dynamics at three basic traffic components: single link, tandem link, and merge link. The impact of weather uncertainty is captured as fluctuation of the saturation rate of fluid queue discharge (capacity). The uncertainty is assumed to follow a continuous-time Markov process. We define the resilience of the UAV traffic system as the long-run stability of the traffic queues and the optimal throughput strategy under uncertainties. We derive the necessary and sufficient conditions for the stabilities of the traffic queues in the three basic traffic components. Both conditions can be easily verified in practiceB. The optimal throughput can be calculated via the stability conditions. Our results offer strong insight and tool for designing flows in the UAV traffic system that is resilient against weather uncertainty.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2019

Shared Causal Paths underlying Alzheimer's dementia and Type 2 Diabetes

Background: Although Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a central nervous system disease and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is a metabolic disorder, an increasing number of genetic epidemiological studies show clear link between AD and T2DM. The current approach to uncovering the shared pathways between AD and T2DM involves association analysis; however, such analyses lack power to discover the mechanisms of the diseases. Methods: We develop novel statistical methods to shift the current paradigm of genetic analysis from association analysis to deep causal inference for uncovering the shared mechanisms between AD and T2DM, and develop pipelines to infer multilevel omics causal networks which lead to shifting the current paradigm of genetic analysis from genetic analysis alone to integrated causal genomic, epigenomic, transcriptional and phenotypic data analysis. To discover common causal paths from genetic variants to AD and T2DM, we also develop algorithms that can automatically search the causal paths from genetic variants to diseases and Results: The proposed methods and algorithms are applied to ROSMAP dataset with 432 individuals who simultaneously had genotype, RNA-seq, DNA methylation and some phenotypes. We construct multi-omics causal networks and identify 13 shared causal genes, 16 shared causal pathways between AD and T2DM, and 754 gene expression and 101 gene methylation nodes that were connected to both AD and T2DM in multi-omics causal networks. Conclusions: The results of application of the proposed pipelines for identifying causal paths to real data analysis of AD and T2DM provided strong evidence to support the link between AD and T2DM and unraveled causal mechanism to explain this link.

q-bio.MN↗

arXiv2018

A3Net: Adversarial-and-Attention Network for Machine Reading Comprehension

In this paper, we introduce Adversarial-and-attention Network (A3Net) for Machine Reading Comprehension. This model extends existing approaches from two perspectives. First, adversarial training is applied to several target variables within the model, rather than only to the inputs or embeddings. We control the norm of adversarial perturbations according to the norm of original target variables, so that we can jointly add perturbations to several target variables during training. As an effective regularization method, adversarial training improves robustness and generalization of our model. Second, we propose a multi-layer attention network utilizing three kinds of high-efficiency attention mechanisms. Multi-layer attention conducts interaction between question and passage within each layer, which contributes to reasonable representation and understanding of the model. Combining these two contributions, we enhance the diversity of dataset and the information extracting ability of the model at the same time. Meanwhile, we construct A3Net for the WebQA dataset. Results show that our model outperforms the state-of-the-art models (improving Fuzzy Score from 73.50% to 77.0%).

cs.CL↗

arXiv2018

Signaling Game-based Misbehavior Inspection in V2I-enabled Highway Operations

Vehicle-to-Infrastructure (V2I) communications are increasingly supporting highway operations such as electronic toll collection, carpooling, and vehicle platooning. In this paper we study the incentives of strategic misbehavior by individual vehicles who can exploit the security vulnerabilities in V2I communications and negatively impact the highway operations. We consider a V2I-enabled highway segment facing two classes of vehicles (agent populations), each with an authorized access to one server (subset of lanes). Vehicles are strategic in that they can misreport their class (type) to the system operator and get an unauthorized access to the server dedicated to the other class. This misbehavior causes additional congestion externality on the compliant vehicles, and thus, needs to be deterred. We focus on an environment where the operator is able to inspect the vehicles for misbehavior. The inspection is costly and successful detection incurs a fine on the misbehaving vehicle. We formulate a signaling game to study the strategic interaction between the vehicle classes and the operator. Our equilibrium analysis provides conditions on the cost parameters that govern the vehicles' incentive to misbehave or not. We also determine the operator's equilibrium inspection strategy.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2018

A novel application of probabilistic teleportation: p-Rabin qubit-oblivious transfer

All existing quantum oblivious transfer protocols are to realize the oblivious transfer of bit or bit-string. In this paper, p-Rabin quantum oblivious transfer of a qubit (abbr. p-Rabin qubit-OT) is achieved by using a probabilistic teleportation (abbr. PT) protocol. Here, this is the first time that the concept of qubit-OT is presented. As the PT protocol is able to transfer an (un)known pure state with a certain probability, this feature makes the PT protocol well fit for Rabin OT. Furthermore, the PT protocol can be used for OT of a bit by encoding classical bit with two pre-agreed orthogonal states. Finally, security analysis shows that the PT protocol can be against participants attacks, and what's more, the discussion of relationship with no-go theorem demonstrates that the PT protocol is able to evade the no-go theorem.

quant-ph↗

arXiv2018

Bivariate Causal Discovery and its Applications to Gene Expression and Imaging Data Analysis

The mainstream of research in genetics, epigenetics and imaging data analysis focuses on statistical association or exploring statistical dependence between variables. Despite their significant progresses in genetic research, understanding the etiology and mechanism of complex phenotypes remains elusive. Using association analysis as a major analytical platform for the complex data analysis is a key issue that hampers the theoretic development of genomic science and its application in practice. Causal inference is an essential component for the discovery of mechanical relationships among complex phenotypes. Many researchers suggest making the transition from association to causation. Despite its fundamental role in science, engineering and biomedicine, the traditional methods for causal inference require at least three variables. However, quantitative genetic analysis such as QTL, eQTL, mQTL, and genomic-imaging data analysis requires exploring the causal relationships between two variables. This paper will focus on bivariate causal discovery. We will introduce independence of cause and mechanism (ICM) as a basic principle for causal inference, algorithmic information theory and additive noise model (ANM) as major tools for bivariate causal discovery. Large-scale simulations will be performed to evaluate the feasibility of the ANM for bivariate causal discovery. To further evaluate their performance for causal inference, the ANM will be applied to the construction of gene regulatory networks. Also, the ANM will be applied to trait-imaging data analysis to illustrate three scenarios: presence of both causation and association, presence of association while absence of causation, and presence of causation, while lack of association between two variables.

q-bio.GN↗

arXiv2018

Stability of Fluid Queuing Systems with Parallel Servers and Stochastic Capacities

This note introduces a piecewise-deterministic queueing (PDQ) model to study the stability of traffic queues in parallel-link transportation systems facing stochastic capacity fluctuations. The saturation rate (capacity) of the PDQ model switches between a finite set of modes according to a Markov chain, and link inflows are controlled by a state-feedback policy. A PDQ system is stable only if a lower bound on the time-average link inflows does not exceed the corresponding time-average saturation rate. Furthermore, a PDQ system is stable if the following two conditions hold: the nominal mode's saturation rate is high enough that all queues vanish in this mode, and a bilinear matrix inequality (BMI) involving an underestimate of the discharge rates of the PDQ in individual modes is feasible. The stability conditions can be strengthened for two-mode PDQs. These results can be used for design of routing policies that guarantee stability of traffic queues under stochastic capacity fluctuations.

math.OC↗

arXiv2018

Phonemic evidence reveals interwoven evolution of Chinese dialects

Han Chinese experienced substantial population migrations and admixture in history, yet little is known about the evolutionary process of Chinese dialects. Here, we used phylogenetic approaches and admixture inference to explicitly decompose the underlying structure of the diversity of Chinese dialects, based on the total phoneme inventories of 140 dialect samples from seven traditional dialect groups: Mandarin, Wu, Xiang, Gan, Hakka, Min and Yue. We found a north-south gradient of phonemic differences in Chinese dialects induced from historical population migrations. We also quantified extensive horizontal language transfers among these dialects, corresponding to the complicated socio-genetic history in China. We finally identified that the middle latitude dialects of Xiang, Gan and Hakka were formed by admixture with other four dialects. Accordingly, the middle-latitude areas in China were a linguistic melting pot of northern and southern Han populations. Our study provides a detailed phylogenetic and historical context against family-tree model in China.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2017

Analysis of a Stochastic Switched Model of Freeway Traffic Incidents

This article introduces a model for freeway traffic dynamics under stochastic capacity-reducing incidents, and provides insights for freeway incident management by analyzing long-time (stability) properties of the proposed model. Incidents on a multi-cell freeway are modeled by reduction in capacity at the affected freeway sections, which occur and clear according to a Markov chain. We develop conditions under which the traffic queue induced by stochastic incidents is bounded. A necessary condition is that the demand must not exceed the time-average capacity adjusted for spillback. A sufficient condition, in the form of a set of bilinear inequalities, is also established by constructing a Lyapunov function and applying the classical Foster-Lyapunov drift condition. Both conditions can be easily verified for realistic instances of the stochastic incident model. Our analysis relies on the construction of a globally attracting invariant set, and exploits the properties of the traffic flow dynamics. We use our results to analyze the impact of stochastic capacity fluctuation (frequency, intensity, and spatial correlation) on the throughput of a freeway segment.

math.OC↗