arXiv subjects

Lidia Ceriani

Publications and source records attributed to Lidia Ceriani.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

A World of Ginis

The Gini index remains the most important measure of economic inequality worldwide, and accurate estimates of this index are essential for effective public policies. Yet, Gini estimates for the same country and year vary considerably across data sources, a problem that remains largely unresolved. The paper reviews the largest global and regional databases providing Gini estimates, surveys the related literature, and constructs a unified dataset of 122,351 Gini observations spanning 222 countries and territories and 158 years, from 1867 to 2024. The analysis of this new dataset shows that income-based Ginis exceed consumption-based ones by 4.7 points on average globally, and by as much as 10 points in some regions, with these gaps widening over time. The gross--net income distinction and the use of alternative equivalence scales together with several other measurement choices add further systematic differences. Based on these findings, the paper provides correction factors that can be used to harmonise Ginis built on different welfare concepts. We further show that overall divergence across databases has grown only modestly since 1960, and mainly through the proliferation of databases rather than through genuine divergence among long-standing sources. Thus, improving on the existing discrepancies across Ginis globally is possible, but ultimately depends on database administrators disclosing full details of Gini construction and on users selecting Ginis built on comparable measures.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2026

The Role of Data and Metrics in Measuring Inequality Worldwide. A Tribute to Giovanni Andrea Cornia's Lifelong Work on the World Ginis

This paper pays tribute to Professor Giovanni Andrea Cornia's lifelong contributions to the measurement of global inequality. We review twelve world and regional databases of the Gini coefficient, illustrate their coverage, overlapping, and data gaps, and analyse the major sources of discrepancy among published Ginis. Merging all databases into a unified collection of over 122,000 observations spanning 222 countries from 1867 to 2024, we document how differences in welfare metrics, reference units, sub-metric definitions, post-survey adjustments, and survey design produce Gini estimates that diverge considerably -- sometimes by as much as 50 percentage points -- for the same country and year. We quantify pairwise cross-database discordance, document the income-consumption Gini gap by region and income group, and discuss the contributions of welfare metric and equivalence scale choices to cross-database dispersion. We extend the analysis with a dedicated discussion of comparability across time and across measurement dimensions, showing how multiple layers of methodological choice interact to make any single Gini figure a product of a complex chain of decisions that are rarely fully disclosed. Our analysis confirms that the choice of welfare metric remains the single most important source of cross-country non-comparability, while sub-metric definitions and equivalence scales introduce further systematic differences that are routinely overlooked in comparative work.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2025

Who Flees Conflict?

Despite the growing numbers of forcibly displaced persons worldwide, many people living under conflict choose not to flee. Individuals face two lotteries - staying or leaving - characterized by two distributions of potential outcomes. This paper proposes to model the choice between these two lotteries using quantile maximization as opposed to expected utility theory. The paper posits that risk-averse individuals aim at minimizing losses by choosing the lottery with the best outcome at the lower end of the distribution, whereas risk-tolerant individuals aim at maximizing gains by choosing the lottery with the best outcome at the higher end of the distribution. Using a rich set of household and conflict panel data from Nigeria, the paper finds that risk-tolerant individuals have a significant preference for staying and risk-averse individuals have a significant preference for fleeing, in line with the predictions of the quantile maximization model. These findings are in contrast to findings on economic migrants, and call for separate policies toward economic and forced migrants.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2025

Optimizing Data-driven Weights In Multidimensional Indexes

Multidimensional indexes are ubiquitous, and popular, but present non-negligible normative choices when it comes to attributing weights to their dimensions. This paper provides a more rigorous approach to the choice of weights by defining a set of desirable properties that weighting models should meet. It shows that Bayesian Networks is the only model across statistical, econometric, and machine learning computational models that meets these properties. An example with EU-SILC data illustrates this new approach highlighting its potential for policies.

econ.EM↗