arXiv subjects

Likuan Qin

Publications and source records attributed to Likuan Qin.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2017

Long-Term Factorization of Affine Pricing Kernels

This paper constructs and studies the long-term factorization of affine pricing kernels into discounting at the rate of return on the long bond and the martingale component that accomplishes the change of probability measure to the long forward measure. The principal eigenfunction of the affine pricing kernel germane to the long-term factorization is an exponential-affine function of the state vector with the coefficient vector identified with the fixed point of the Riccati ODE. The long bond volatility and the volatility of the martingale component are explicitly identified in terms of this fixed point. A range of examples from the asset pricing literature is provided to illustrate the theory.

q-fin.MF↗

arXiv2017

The Long Bond, Long Forward Measure and Long-Term Factorization in Heath-Jarrow-Morton Models

This paper proves existence of the long bond, long forward measure and long-term factorization of the stochastic discount factor (SDF) of Alvarez and Jermann (2005) and Hansen and Scheinkman (2009) in Heath-Jarrow-Morton (HJM) models in the function space framework of Filipovic (2001). A sufficient condition on the weight in the Hilbert space of forward rate volatility curves is given that ensures existence of the long bond volatility process, the long bond process and the long-term factorization of the SDF into discounting at the rate of return on the long bond and a martingale component defining the long forward measure, the long-term limit of T-forward measures.

q-fin.MF↗

arXiv2016

Long Term Risk: A Martingale Approach

This paper extends the long-term factorization of the stochastic discount factor introduced and studied by Alvarez and Jermann (2005) in discretetime ergodic environments and by Hansen and Scheinkman (2009) and Hansen (2012) in Markovian environments to general semimartingale environments. The transitory component discounts at the stochastic rate of return on the long bond and is factorized into discounting at the long-term yield and a positive semimartingale that extends the principal eigenfunction of Hansen and Scheinkman (2009) to the semimartingale setting. The permanent component is a martingale that accomplishes a change of probabilities to the long forward measure, the limit of T-forward measures. The change of probabilities from the data generating to the long forward measure absorbs the long-term risk-return trade-off and interprets the latter as the long-term risk-neutral measure.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2016

Long Forward Probabilities, Recovery and the Term Structure of Bond Risk Premiums

We show that the martingale component in the long-term factorization of the stochastic discount factor due to Alvarez and Jermann (2005) and Hansen and Scheinkman (2009) is highly volatile, produces a downward-sloping term structure of bond Sharpe ratios, and implies that the long bond is far from growth optimality. In contrast, the long forward probabilities forecast an upward sloping term structure of bond Sharpe ratios that starts from zero for short-term bonds and implies that the long bond is growth optimal. Thus, transition independence and degeneracy of the martingale component are implausible assumptions in the bond market.

q-fin.MF↗

arXiv2015

Positive Eigenfunctions of Markovian Pricing Operators: Hansen-Scheinkman Factorization, Ross Recovery and Long-Term Pricing

This paper develops a spectral theory of Markovian asset pricing models where the underlying economic uncertainty follows a continuous-time Markov process X with a general state space (Borel right process (BRP)) and the stochastic discount factor (SDF) is a positive semimartingale multiplicative functional of X. A key result is the uniqueness theorem for a positive eigenfunction of the pricing operator such that X is recurrent under a new probability measure associated with this eigenfunction (recurrent eigenfunction). As economic applications, we prove uniqueness of the Hansen and Scheinkman (2009) factorization of the Markovian SDF corresponding to the recurrent eigenfunction, extend the Recovery Theorem of Ross (2015) from discrete time, finite state irreducible Markov chains to recurrent BRPs, and obtain the long maturity asymptotics of the pricing operator. When an asset pricing model is specified by given risk-neutral probabilities together with a short rate function of the Markovian state, we give sufficient conditions for existence of a recurrent eigenfunction and provide explicit examples in a number of important financial models, including affine and quadratic diffusion models and an affine model with jumps. These examples show that the recurrence assumption, in addition to fixing uniqueness, rules out unstable economic dynamics, such as the short rate asymptotically going to infinity or to a zero lower bound trap without possibility of escaping.

q-fin.MF↗