arXiv subjects

Lior Rennert

Publications and source records attributed to Lior Rennert.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

CCMnet: A Software Package for Network Generation with Congruence Class Models

We introduce CCMnet, an R package designed to generate network ensembles that accurately reflect the uncertainty inherent in empirical data. While traditional network modeling often results in ensembles with fixed property values or model-determined levels of variability, CCMnet enables a continuous spectrum of variability for network properties, including edge counts, degree distribution, and mixing patterns. By defining probability distributions directly over congruence classes of networks, the package allows researchers to specify the uncertainty in network properties across the generated ensemble to match a specific sampling design or empirical distribution. Furthermore, this formulation provides a principled framework that encompasses several classic models (e.g., Erd\H{o}s--R\'{e}nyi model, stochastic block models, and certain exponential random graph models) that implicitly share this structural basis, while offering the flexibility to specify arbitrary, even non-parametric, distributions for network properties. CCMnet implements a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) framework to sample from these models. The utility of the package is illustrated by generating posterior predictive network ensembles representing school friendship networks.

stat.CO↗

arXiv2026

Early warning of Mpox outbreaks in U.S. jurisdictions using Lasso Vector Autoregression models with cross-jurisdictional lags

Mpox is an orthopoxvirus that infects humans and animals and is transmitted primarily through close physical contact. The episodic and spatially heterogeneous dynamics of Mpox transmission underscores the need for timely, area-specific forecasts to support targeted public health responses in the U.S. We develop a Vector Autoregression model with Lasso regularization (VAR-Lasso) to generate rolling two-week-ahead forecasts of weekly Mpox cases for eight high-incidence U.S. jurisdictions using national surveillance data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The VAR-Lasso model identifies significant long-lag, cross-jurisdictional predictors. For a case study in San Diego County (SDC), these statistical predictors align with phylogenetic analysis that traces a 2023 cluster in SDC to an outbreak in Illinois six months earlier. As the need for public health action is often greatest when incidence is increasing, our performance evaluation focuses on positive-slope weighted error metrics. Forecast performance of the VAR-Lasso model is compared to a uni-variate Auto-Regressive (AR) Lasso model and a naive moving-average estimate. The models are compared using slope-weighted Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), slope-weighted Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and slope-weighted bias. Across all observations, the VAR-Lasso model reduces slope-weighted RMSE, MAE, and bias by 12%, 7%, and 66% relative to the AR model, and by 16%, 13%, and 76% relative to the naive benchmark. Our findings highlight the value of sparse multivariate time-series models that leverage cross-jurisdictional case data for early forecasting of Mpox outbreaks. Such forecasting can aid health departments in proactively providing timely resources and messaging to mitigate the risks of a future outbreak.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2024

Enhancing structural resilience in healthcare through patient flow network

Large-scale disasters, such as pandemics and climate-related events, place extraordinary pressure on healthcare providers due to extreme demand surges. Managing these surges is essential to sustaining healthcare resilience. Although numerous studies on healthcare resilience, far less attention has been given to physicians and to how patterns of patient movement can help redistribute demand and alleviate stress on overburdened providers. In this study, we analyzed billions of electronic medical records documenting patient visits to primary care physicians (PCPs) to construct inter-regional patient flow networks across the U.S. During the COVID-19 pandemic, we observed that cross-regional flow rose to 2.81%, compared to the pre-pandemic level of 2.08%. This redistribution absorbed, on average, 58% of the excess stress on PCPs, meaning more than half of the surging demand was handled by patients' moves to less burdened regions, an absolute 43 percentage point improvement from the pre-pandemic baseline of 15%. Further analysis suggests that strengthening cross-regional patient flow could allow the healthcare system to absorb even more stress and reduce the demand for PCPs. These findings provide structural insights for the healthcare system to enhance its pandemic preparedness and disaster responses, and to improve patient care during crises.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2018

Cox Regression Model Under Dependent Truncation

Truncation is a statistical phenomenon that occurs in many time to event studies. For example, autopsy-confirmed studies of neurodegenerative diseases are subject to an inherent left and right truncation, also known as double truncation. When the goal is to study the effect of risk factors on survival, the standard Cox regression model cannot be used when the data is subject to truncation. Existing methods which adjust for both left and right truncation in the Cox regression model require independence between the survival times and truncation times, which may not be a reasonable assumption in practice. We propose an expectation-maximization algorithm to relax the independence assumption in the Cox regression model under left, right, or double truncation, to an assumption of conditional independence. The resulting regression coefficient estimators are consistent and asymptotically normal. We demonstrate through extensive simulations that the proposed estimators have little bias and, in most practical situations, have a lower mean-squared error compared to existing estimators. We implement our approach to assess the effect of occupation on survival in subjects with autopsy-confirmed Alzheimer's disease.

stat.ME↗