arXiv subjects

Liqin Ye

Publications and source records attributed to Liqin Ye.

7 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Can LLMs Take the Pulse of the Economy? A Real-Time Evaluation of LLM Nowcasts on Macroeconomic Indicators

Nowcasting headline macroeconomic indicators, i.e., estimating an indicator's value for the current reference period before its official release, is critical for monetary policy and financial markets, and central banks devote dedicated teams of expert economists to producing such estimates. Large language model (LLM) agents are a promising candidate for this task, combining broad world knowledge with real-time web search and supporting queries at higher frequency than institutional nowcasts. Evaluating their nowcasting capability is, however, challenging: headline indicators such as GDP and CPI are widely reported and likely memorized during pretraining, so any evaluation on historical releases is vulnerable to data contamination. To address this, we introduce LiveMacroEval, a live, contamination-resistant benchmark in which LLM agents produce hourly nowcasts for sixteen major U.S. macroeconomic indicators over a pre-release window closing at each official release. Nowcast quality is assessed through a LiveMacro Score against announcement-window equity returns and a LiveBetting Score from simulated Polymarket-style trading, with Federal Reserve regional-bank nowcasts, the Bloomberg ECOS professional consensus, and an auto-ARIMA baseline as comparators. Over six months with four state-of-the-art LLM agents configured with web search, aggregate nowcast accuracy is broadly comparable to the institutional and professional benchmarks, with performance varying widely across individual indicators. This highlights LLM agents' potential as real-time estimators of macroeconomic conditions.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

IPO-Mine: A Toolkit and Dataset for Section-Structured Analysis of Long, Multimodal IPO Documents

An Initial Public Offering (IPO) filing is a document released when a private firm goes public, allowing individual (retail) investors to purchase its shares. These filings describe a firm's business, financials, and risks and are long, multimodal documents with narrative text and images. Despite their importance to financial markets, there is no large-scale, standardized dataset or benchmark for studying IPO filings with modern language and multimodal models. These documents pose significant challenges: filings frequently exceed 500,000 tokens and lack consistent structural organization. We introduce the IPO-Toolkit, an open-source framework for downloading and parsing IPO filings into standardized section-structured text and extracted images. The toolkit segments filings, extracts embedded images, and produces structured outputs that enable large-scale, reproducible analysis workflows over long, multimodal documents. Using this infrastructure, we construct the IPO-Dataset, a large, section-structured, multimodal dataset covering more than 109,000 IPO filings and amendments from 1994 to 2026 and containing over 76,000 images. We establish structured evaluation tasks over extracted financial charts, including chart quality and misleadingness assessment. Our experiments show that state-of-the-art multimodal models often diverge from expert human judgments on these tasks, exposing alignment challenges in multimodal reasoning over long, real-world regulatory documents. Beyond benchmarking, the IPO-Dataset enables large-scale analysis of section-level textual variation and cross-industry differences in visual and textual disclosure practices. Our code, dataset, and website are publicly available under CC-BY-4.0.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

Evolutionary Task Discovery: Advancing Reasoning Frontiers via Skill Composition and Complexity Scaling

The reasoning frontier of Large Language Models (LLMs) has advanced significantly through modern post-training paradigms (e.g., Reinforcement Learning from Verifiable Rewards (RLVR)). However, the efficacy of these methods remains fundamentally constrained by the diversity and complexity of the training data. One practical solution is data synthesis; yet, prevalent methods relying on unstructured mutation or exploration suffer from homogeneity collapse, failing to systematically expand the reasoning frontier. To overcome this, we propose Evoutionary Task Discovery (EvoTD), a framework that treats data synthesis as a directed search over a dual-axis manifold of Algorithmic Skills and Complexity Attributes. We introduce structured evolutionary operators to navigate this space: a Crossover operator that synthesizes novel skill compositions to enhance diversity, and a Parametric Mutation operator that scales structural constraints (e.g., input size, tree depth) to drive robust generalization. Crucially, we integrate a dynamic Zone of Proximal Development filter, ensuring tasks lie within the learnable region of the model. Empirically, EvoTD delivers substantial reasoning gains that generalize consistently across model architectures, pretraining regimes, and scales, demonstrating that structured evolutionary curricula can effectively support reasoning improvement. We release our code on https://github.com/liqinye/EvoTD.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Precise Attribute Intensity Control in Large Language Models via Targeted Representation Editing

Precise attribute intensity control--generating Large Language Model (LLM) outputs with specific, user-defined attribute intensities--is crucial for AI systems adaptable to diverse user expectations. Current LLM alignment methods, however, typically provide only directional or open-ended guidance, failing to reliably achieve exact attribute intensities. We address this limitation with three key designs: (1) reformulating precise attribute intensity control as a target-reaching problem, rather than simple maximization; (2) training a lightweight value function via temporal-difference learning to predict final attribute intensity scores from partial generations, thereby steering LLM outputs; and (3) employing gradient-based interventions on hidden representations to navigate the model precisely towards specific attribute intensity targets. Our method enables fine-grained, continuous control over attribute intensities, moving beyond simple directional alignment. Experiments on LLaMA-3.2-3b and Phi-4-mini confirm our method's ability to steer text generation to user-specified attribute intensities with high accuracy. Finally, we demonstrate efficiency enhancements across three downstream tasks: preference data synthesis, Pareto frontier approximation and optimization, and distillation of aligned behaviors for intervention-free inference. Our code is available on https://github.com/Pre-Control/pre-control

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

Words That Unite The World: A Unified Framework for Deciphering Central Bank Communications Globally

Central banks around the world play a crucial role in maintaining economic stability. Deciphering policy implications in their communications is essential, especially as misinterpretations can disproportionately impact vulnerable populations. To address this, we introduce the World Central Banks (WCB) dataset, the most comprehensive monetary policy corpus to date, comprising over 380k sentences from 25 central banks across diverse geographic regions, spanning 28 years of historical data. After uniformly sampling 1k sentences per bank (25k total) across all available years, we annotate and review each sentence using dual annotators, disagreement resolutions, and secondary expert reviews. We define three tasks: Stance Detection, Temporal Classification, and Uncertainty Estimation, with each sentence annotated for all three. We benchmark seven Pretrained Language Models (PLMs) and nine Large Language Models (LLMs) (Zero-Shot, Few-Shot, and with annotation guide) on these tasks, running 15,075 benchmarking experiments. We find that a model trained on aggregated data across banks significantly surpasses a model trained on an individual bank's data, confirming the principle "the whole is greater than the sum of its parts." Additionally, rigorous human evaluations, error analyses, and predictive tasks validate our framework's economic utility. Our artifacts are accessible through the HuggingFace and GitHub under the CC-BY-NC-SA 4.0 license.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

Beyond the Reported Cutoff: Where Large Language Models Fall Short on Financial Knowledge

Large Language Models (LLMs) are frequently utilized as sources of knowledge for question-answering. While it is known that LLMs may lack access to real-time data or newer data produced after the model's cutoff date, it is less clear how their knowledge spans across historical information. In this study, we assess the breadth of LLMs' knowledge using financial data of U.S. publicly traded companies by evaluating more than 197k questions and comparing model responses to factual data. We further explore the impact of company characteristics, such as size, retail investment, institutional attention, and readability of financial filings, on the accuracy of knowledge represented in LLMs. Our results reveal that LLMs are less informed about past financial performance, but they display a stronger awareness of larger companies and more recent information. Interestingly, at the same time, our analysis also reveals that LLMs are more likely to hallucinate for larger companies, especially for data from more recent years. The code, prompts, and model outputs are available on GitHub.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

Calibrating Pre-trained Language Classifiers on LLM-generated Noisy Labels via Iterative Refinement

The traditional process of creating labeled datasets is labor-intensive and expensive. Recent breakthroughs in open-source large language models (LLMs) have opened up a new avenue in generating labeled datasets automatically for various natural language processing (NLP) tasks, providing an alternative to such an expensive annotation process. However, the reliability of such auto-generated labels remains a significant concern due to inherent inaccuracies. When learning from noisy labels, the model's generalization is likely to be harmed as it is prone to overfit to those label noises. While previous studies in learning from noisy labels mainly focus on synthetic noise and real-world noise, LLM-generated label noise receives less attention. In this paper, we propose SiDyP: Simplex Label Diffusion with Dynamic Prior to calibrate the classifier's prediction, thus enhancing its robustness towards LLM-generated noisy labels. SiDyP retrieves potential true label candidates by neighborhood label distribution in text embedding space and iteratively refines noisy candidates using a simplex diffusion model. Our framework can increase the performance of the BERT classifier fine-tuned on both zero-shot and few-shot LLM-generated noisy label datasets by an average of 7.21% and 7.30% respectively. We demonstrate the effectiveness of SiDyP by conducting extensive benchmarking for different LLMs over a variety of NLP tasks. Our code is available on Github.

cs.CL↗