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Liron Ravner

Publications and source records attributed to Liron Ravner.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Dynamic Core Allocation for Malleable Jobs with Unknown Speed-up Parameters

We study dynamic resource allocation in a multicore computing system with a fixed number of processing cores and a stream of malleable jobs. Each job may adjust its level of parallelism during execution, allowing adaptive redistribution of resources across concurrently active jobs. Jobs belong to one of two observable classes, each characterized by a distinct speed-up function with unknown parameters. The objective is to learn a core-allocation policy that minimizes the long-run mean number of jobs in the system, equivalently the mean response time in steady state. \noindent To address this uncertainty, we develop an iterative learning-and-control framework. The system alternates between estimating the unknown speed-up parameters from observed job completions and solving the associated Markov decision process (MDP) to update the allocation policy. Within each job class, cores are shared equally among active jobs; the fraction of capacity assigned to each class is obtained from the MDP formulation of \cite{berg2017}, evaluated at the current parameter estimates. We construct a maximum likelihood estimator based on state-dependent inter-departure times and prove its strong consistency under a fixed allocation policy. We further propose two learning algorithms that combine this estimation step with dynamic programming-based policy updates, and illustrate their through numerical experiments.

math.OC

Using memory to control admission to unobservable queues

We study admission control to an unobservable M/M/1 queue. A memoryless controller can only randomly thin arrivals (random routing, RR). We show that a gated admission (GA) policy, blocking arrivals for a fixed period after each admission, stochastically dominates RR at equal throughput, improving social welfare under any sojourn-based cost. We characterize the welfare-maximizing threshold and define the Price of Forgetting as the welfare ratio. This ratio is unbounded even though the absolute welfare gain stays uniformly bounded.

math.PR

Departure Time Choice with Parametric Heterogeneity: Equilibrium and Instability

Vickrey's classic single-bottleneck departure time choice equilibrium model exhibits instability under many plausible day-to-day learning dynamics. Such instability is not observed in reality -- does this difference stem from the day-to-day dynamics or from one of the simplifying assumptions of the basic model? This paper explores a variant of the basic model with a continuous distribution of schedule delay parameters which we intuitively expect to have more favorable stability properties. To attain tractability we assume a monotonic relationship between earliness and lateness parameters. We first verify the existence and uniqueness of the equilibrium solution for this model. We then study a broad class of day-to-day dynamics satisfying local pressure and order preservation conditions. Our main contribution is a formal proof that, surprisingly, all such day-to-day dynamics in this context are unstable.

cs.GT

A stochastic optimization algorithm for revenue maximization in a service system with balking customers

This paper analyzes a service system modeled as a single-server queue, in which the service provider aims to dynamically maximize the expected revenue per unit of time. This is achieved by constructing a stochastic gradient descent algorithm that dynamically adjusts the price. A key feature of our modeling framework is that customers may choose to balk - that is, decide not to join - when facing high congestion. A notable strength of our approach is that the revenue-maximizing algorithm relies solely on information about effective arrivals, meaning that only the behavior of customers who choose not to balk is observable and used in decision-making. This results in an elaborate interplay between the pricing policy and the effective arrival process, yielding a non-standard state dependent queueing process. An important contribution of our work concerns a novel Infinitesimal Perturbation Analysis (IPA) procedure that is able to consistently estimate the stationary effective arrival rate. This is further leveraged to construct an iterative algorithm that converges, under mild regularity conditions, to the optimal price with provable asymptotic guarantees.

math.OC

Uncovering the topology of an infinite-server queueing network from population data

This paper studies statistical inference in a network of infinite-server queues, with the aim of estimating the underlying parameters (routing matrix, arrival rates, parameters pertaining to the service times) using observations of the network population vector at Poisson time points. We propose a method-of-moments estimator and establish its consistency. The method relies on deriving the covariance structure of different nodes at different sampling epochs. Numerical experiments demonstrate that the method yields accurate estimates, even in settings with a large number of parameters. Two model variants are considered: one that assumes a known parametric form for the service-time distributions, and a model-free version that does not require such assumptions.

math.PR

Estimation of service value parameters for a queue with unobserved balking

In Naor's model [17], customers decide whether or not to join a queue after observing its length. This work considers a variation in which customers are heterogeneous in their service value (reward) $R$ from completed service and homogeneous in the cost of staying in the system per unit of time. It is assumed that the values of customers are independent random variables generated from a common parametric distribution. The manager observes the queue length process, but not the balking customers. Assuming that the distribution of $R$ admits a known parametric form, a Maximum Likelihood Estimator based on the queue length data is constructed for the underlying parameters of $R$. We provide verifiable conditions for which the estimator is consistent and asymptotically normal. The estimation procedure is further leveraged to construct a dynamic pricing scheme that estimates the revenue maximizing admission price by iteratively updating the price using the estimated parameters. The performance of the estimator and the pricing algorithm are studied through a series of simulation experiments.

math.ST

Statistical inference for a service system with non-stationary arrivals and unobserved balking

We study a multi-server queueing system with a periodic arrival rate and customers whose joining decision is based on their patience and a delay proxy. Specifically, each customer has a patience level sampled from a common distribution. Upon arrival, they receive an estimate of their delay before joining service and then join the system only if this delay is not more than their patience, otherwise they balk. The main objective is to estimate the parameters pertaining to the arrival rate and patience distribution. Here the complication factor is that this inference should be performed based on the observed process only, i.e., balking customers remain unobserved. We set up a likelihood function of the state dependent effective arrival process (i.e., corresponding to the customers who join), establish strong consistency of the MLE, and derive the asymptotic distribution of the estimation error. Due to the intrinsic non-stationarity of the Poisson arrival process, the proof techniques used in previous work become inapplicable. The novelty of the proving mechanism in this paper lies in the procedure of constructing i.i.d. objects from dependent samples by decomposing the sample path into i.i.d. regeneration cycles. The feasibility of the MLE-approach is discussed via a sequence of numerical experiments, for multiple choices of functions which provide delay estimates. In particular, it is observed that the arrival rate is best estimated at high service capacities, and the patience distribution is best estimated at lower service capacities.

math.PR

Stochastic approximation of symmetric Nash equilibria in queueing games

We suggest a novel stochastic-approximation algorithm to compute a symmetric Nash-equilibrium strategy in a general queueing game with a finite action space. The algorithm involves a single simulation of the queueing process with dynamic updating of the strategy at regeneration times. Under mild assumptions on the utility function and on the regenerative structure of the queueing process, the algorithm converges to a symmetric equilibrium strategy almost surely. This yields a powerful tool that can be used to approximate equilibrium strategies in a broad range of strategic queueing models in which direct analysis is impracticable.

math.PR

Nonparametric estimation of the job-size distribution for an M/G/1 queue with Poisson sampling

This work presents a non-parametric estimator for the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the job-size distribution for a queue with compound Poisson input. The workload process is observed according to an independent Poisson sampling process. The nonparametric estimator is constructed by first estimating the characteristic function (CF) and then applying an inversion formula. The convergence rate of the CF estimator at $s$ is shown to be of the order of $s^2/n$, where $n$ is the sample size. This convergence rate is leveraged to explore the bias-variance tradeoff of the inversion estimator. It is demonstrated that within a certain class of continuous distributions, the risk, in terms of MSE, is uniformly bounded by $C n^{-\frac{\eta}{1+\eta}}$, where $C$ is a positive constant and the parameter $\eta>0$ depends on the smoothness of the underlying class of distributions. A heuristic method is further developed to address the case of an unknown rate of the compound Poisson input process.

math.ST

Estimating customer delay and tardiness sensitivity from periodic queue length observations

A single server commences its service at time zero every day. A random number of customers decide when to arrive to the system so as to minimize the waiting time and tardiness costs. The costs are proportional to the waiting time and the tardiness with rates $α$ and $β$, respectively. Each customer's optimal arrival time depends on the others' decisions, thus the resulting strategy is a Nash equilibrium. This work considers the estimation of the ratio $\displaystyleθ\equiv β/(α+β)$ from queue length data observed daily at discrete time points, given that customers use a Nash equilibrium arrival strategy. A method of moments estimator is constructed from the equilibrium conditions. Remarkably, the method does not require estimation of the Nash equilibrium arrival strategy itself, or even an accurate estimate of its support. The estimator is strongly consistent and the estimation error is asymptotically normal. Moreover, the asymptotic variance of the estimation error as a function of the queue length covariance matrix (at sampling times) is derived. The estimator performance is demonstrated through simulations, and is shown to be robust to the number of sampling instants each day.

math.PR

Estimating customer impatience in a service system with unobserved balking

This paper studies a service system in which arriving customers are provided with information about the delay they will experience. Based on this information they decide to wait for service or to leave the system. Specifically, every customer has a patience threshold and they balk if the observed delay is above the threshold. The main objective is to estimate the parameters of the customers' patience-level distribution and the corresponding potential arrival rate, using knowledge of the actual queue-length process only. The main complication, and distinguishing feature of our setup, lies in the fact that customers who decide not to join are not observed, remarkably, we manage to devise a procedure to estimate the underlying patience and arrival rate parameters. The model is a multi-server queue with a Poisson stream of customers, enabling evaluation of the corresponding likelihood function of the state-dependent effective arrival process. We establish strong consistency of the MLE and derive the asymptotic distribution of the estimation error. Several applications and extensions of the method are discussed. The performance is further assessed through a series of numerical experiments. By fitting parameters of hyperexponential and generalized-hyperexponential distributions our method provides a robust estimation framework for any continuous patience-level distribution.

math.PR

Input estimation from discrete workload observations in a L\'evy-driven storage system

Our goal is to estimate the characteristic exponent of the input to a L\'evy-driven storage system from a sample of equispaced workload observations. The estimator relies on an approximate moment equation associated with the Laplace-Stieltjes transform of the workload at exponentially distributed sampling times. The estimator is pointwise consistent for any observation grid. Moreover, a high frequency sampling scheme yields asymptotically normal estimation errors for a class of input processes. A resampling scheme that uses the available information in a more efficient manner is suggested and assessed via simulation experiments.

math.PR

Queue input estimation from discrete workload observations

This note considers the problem of statistical inference of the parameters of the input process to a queue from periodic workload observations. The main focus is the open problem of constructing statistically efficient estimators for a given observation scheme, in the sense of minimizing the asymptotic variance of the estimation error.

cs.PF

A survey of queueing systems with strategic timing of arrivals

Consider a population of customers each of which needs to decide independently when to arrive to a facility that provides a service during a fixed period of time, say a day. This is a common scenario in many service systems such as a bank, lunch at a cafeteria, music concert, flight check-in and many others. High demand for service at a specific time leads to congestion that comes at a cost, e.g., for waiting, earliness or tardiness. Queueing Theory provides tools for the analysis of the waiting times and associated costs. If customers have the option of deciding when to join the queue, they will face a decision dilemma of when to arrive. The level of congestion one suffers from depends on others behavior and not only that of the individual under consideration. This fact leads customers to make strategic decisions regarding their time of arrival. In addition, multiple decision makers that affect each other's expected congestion, call for non-cooperative game theoretic analysis of this strategic interaction. This common daily scenario has prompted a research stream pioneered by the ?/M/1 model of Glazer and Hassin (GH1983) that first characterized an arrival process to a queue as a Nash equilibrium solution of a game. This survey provides an overview of the main results and developments in the literature on queueing systems with strategic timing of arrivals. Another issue is that of social optimality, namely the strategy profile used by customers that optimizes their aggregate utility. In particular, we review results concerning the price of anarchy (PoA), which is the ratio between the socially optimal and the equilibrium utilities.

cs.GT

Strategic arrivals to a queue with service rate uncertainty

We study the problem of strategic choice of arrival time to a single-server queue with opening and closing times when there is uncertainty regarding service speed. A Poisson population of customers choose their arrival time with the goal of minimizing their expected waiting times and are served on a first-come first-served basis. There are two types of customers that differ in their beliefs regarding the service time distribution. The inconsistent beliefs may arise from randomness in the server state along with noisy signals that customers observe. Customers are aware of the two types of populations with differing beliefs. We characterize the Nash equilibrium dynamics for exponentially distributed service times and show how they substantially differ from the model with homogeneous customers. We further provide an explicit solution for a fluid approximation of the game. For general service time distributions we provide an algorithm for computing the equilibrium in a discrete time setting. We find that in equilibrium customers with different beliefs arrive during different (and often disjoint) time intervals. Numerical analysis further shows that the mean waiting time increases with the coefficient of variation of the service time. Furthermore, we present a learning agent based model (ABM) in which customers make joining decisions based solely on their signals and past experience. We numerically compare the long-term average outcome of the ABM with that of the equilibrium and find that the arrival distributions are quite close if we assume (for the equilibrium solution) that customers are fully rational and have knowledge of the system parameters, while they may greatly differ if customers have limited information or computing abilities.

math.PR

Hypothesis testing for a Lévy-driven storage system by Poisson sampling

This paper focuses on hypothesis testing for the input of a Lévy-driven storage system by sampling of the storage level. As the likelihood is not explicit we propose two tests that rely on transformation of the data. The first approach uses i.i.d. `quasi-busy-periods' between observations of zero workload. The distribution of the duration of quasi-busy-periods is determined. The second method is a conditional likelihood ratio test based on the Bernoulli events of observing a zero or positive workload, conditional on the previous workload. Performance analysis is presented for both tests along with speed-of-convergence results, that are of independent interest.

math.PR

Estimating the input of a Lévy-driven queue by Poisson sampling of the workload process

This paper aims at semi-parametrically estimating the input process to a Lévy-driven queue by sampling the workload process at Poisson times. We construct a method-of-moments based estimator for the Lévy process' characteristic exponent. This method exploits the known distribution of the workload sampled at an exponential time, thus taking into account the dependence between subsequent samples. Verifiable conditions for consistency and asymptotic normality are provided, along with explicit expressions for the asymptotic variance. The method requires an intermediate estimation step of estimating a constant (related to both the input distribution and the sampling rate); this constant also features in the asymptotic analysis. For subordinator Lévy input, a partial MLE is constructed for the intermediate step and we show that it satisfies the consistency and asymptotic normality conditions. For general spectrally-positive Lévy input a biased estimator is proposed that only uses workload observations above some threshold; the bias can be made arbitrarily small by appropriately choosing the threshold.

math.PR

Delay-minimizing capacity allocation in an infinite server queueing system

We consider a service system with an infinite number of exponential servers sharing a finite service capacity. The servers are ordered according to their speed, and arriving customers join the fastest idle server. A capacity allocation is an infinite sequence of service rates. We study the probabilistic properties of this system by considering overflows from sub-systems with a finite number of servers. Several stability measures are suggested and analysed. The tail of the series of service rates that minimizes the average expected delay (service time) is shown to be approximately geometrically decreasing. We use this property in order to approximate the optimal allocation of service rates by constructing an appropriate dynamic program.

math.PR