arXiv subjects

Lisa A. Upton

Publications and source records attributed to Lisa A. Upton.

16 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

A Probabilistic Framework for Incorporating Helioseismic Far-Side Active Regions into SFT Models

Surface Flux Transport (SFT) models are routinely used to model the Sun's photospheric magnetic field and provide inner boundary conditions for coronal and heliospheric models, yet they remain fundamentally limited by the lack of direct information about flux emergence on the far side of the Sun. To address this, we develop a framework for incorporating helioseismic images of far-side active regions (HIFAR), into the Advective Flux Transport (AFT) model. Using near-simultaneous magnetic flux maps (HIFARM) inferred from HIFAR, and STEREO/EUVI 304 A observations from 2010 May 13 to 2014 August 18, we develop a logistic regression model to estimate the probability that a helioseismic detection corresponds to an AR based on descriptors of magnetic flux, field strength, and location. The model achieves a precision of 0.93 for active region (AR) detections at a probability threshold of 0.73, selected to reject 90% of "ghost" ARs. We also derive an empirical scaling relationship between HIFARM and AFT flux to place HIFARM on the AFT flux scale and demonstrate that the framework reproduces the flux evolution of ARs consistent with near-side observations over multiple solar rotations. At the global scale, we find that conventional near-side-driven AFT simulations underestimate the total unsigned magnetic flux by ~10-20% of the Sun's total magnetic flux budget. The probabilistic AR detection model and the complete framework developed in this work provide a practical pathway for incorporating helioseismic far-side ARs into SFT models, a step toward realistic modeling of full-Sun magnetic field.

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arXiv2025

Historical Reconstruction of Solar Surface Magnetism from Cycle 1-24 Using the Synthetic Active Region Generator (SARG) and the Advective Flux Transport (AFT) Model

The historical reconstruction of the Sun's surface magnetic field remains a persistent challenge, limiting our ability to investigate the long-term global properties of the Sun, including the evolution of the large-scale magnetic field, solar cycle prediction, reconstruction of total solar irradiance (TSI), and secular solar variability. In this study, we employ the Advective Flux Transport (AFT) model in conjunction with our newly developed Synthetic Active Region Generator (SARG) to construct a catalog of synthetic active regions (ARs) spanning Solar Cycles 1-24 (1755-2020). We use the SIDC/SILSO sunspot number version 2.0 as the sole input governing the properties of the synthetic ARs in this catalog. This SARG catalog is then incorporated into the AFT model, which simulates the emergence of new ARs on the Sun, which are then transported under the influence of surface flows to produce maps of the full-Sun radial photospheric magnetic field over the entire 265-year period. We modulate the active region tilt for each cycle in order to ensure that the polar fields are consistent with the solar cycle amplitudes. We find that the polar fields derived from these simulations exhibit excellent correlation (r > 0.8) with observational proxies, including polar faculae counts and Ca ii K polar network indices. Daily synchronic maps from these simulations for the entire 265-year period are made publicly available to support a wide range of applications beyond those presented in this work.

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arXiv2025

Structure and Dynamics of the Sun's Interior Revealed by Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager

High-resolution helioseismology observations with the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) onboard Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) provide a unique three-dimensional view of the solar interior structure and dynamics, revealing a tremendous complexity of the physical processes inside the Sun. We present an overview of the results of the HMI helioseismology program and discuss their implications for modern theoretical models and simulations of the solar interior.

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arXiv2025

Open-source Flux Transport (OFT). I. HipFT -- High-performance Flux Transport

Global solar photospheric magnetic maps play a critical role in solar and heliospheric physics research. Routine magnetograph measurements of the field occur only along the Sun-Earth line, leaving the far-side of the Sun unobserved. Surface Flux Transport (SFT) models attempt to mitigate this by modeling the surface evolution of the field. While such models have long been established in the community (with several releasing public full-Sun maps), none are open source. The Open Source Flux Transport (OFT) model seeks to fill this gap by providing an open and user-extensible SFT model that also builds on the knowledge of previous models with updated numerical and data acquisition/assimilation methods along with additional user-defined features. In this first of a series of papers on OFT, we introduce its computational core: the High-performance Flux Transport (HipFT) code (github.com/predsci/hipft). HipFT implements advection, diffusion, and data assimilation in a modular design that supports a variety of flow models and options. It can compute multiple realizations in a single run across model parameters to create ensembles of maps for uncertainty quantification and is high-performance through the use of multi-CPU and multi-GPU parallelism. HipFT is designed to enable users to easily write extensions, enhancing its flexibility and adaptability. We describe HipFT's model features, validations of its numerical methods, performance of its parallel and GPU-accelerated code implementation, analysis/post-processing options, and example use cases.

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arXiv2025

Ca II K Polar Network Index of the Sun: A Proxy for Historical Polar Magnetic Field

The Sun's polar magnetic field is pivotal in understanding solar dynamo processes and forecasting future solar cycles. However, direct measurements of the polar field is only available since the 1970s. The chromospheric Ca II K polar network index (PNI; the fractional area of the chromospheric network regions above a certain latitude) has recently emerged as a reliable proxy for polar magnetic fields. In this study, we derive PNI estimates from newly calibrated, rotation-corrected Ca II K observations from the Kodaikanal Solar Observatory (1904-2007) and modern data from the Rome Precision Solar Photometric Telescope (2000-2022). We use both of those Ca II K archives to identify polar network regions with an automatic adaptive threshold segmentation technique and calculate the PNI. The PNI obtained from both the archives shows a significant correlation with the measured polar field from WSO (Pearson correlation coefficient r > 0.93) and the derived polar field based on an Advective Flux Transport Model (r > 0.91). The PNI series also shows a significant correlation with faculae counts derived from Mount Wilson Observatory observations (r > 0.87) for both KoSO and Rome-PSPT data. Finally, we use the PNI series from both archives to reconstruct the polar magnetic field over a 119-year-long period, which includes last 11 solar cycles (Cycle 14-24). We also obtain a relationship between the amplitude of solar cycles (in 13-month smoothed sunspot number) and the strength of the reconstructed polar field at the preceding solar cycle minimum to validate the prediction of the ongoing solar cycle, Cycle 25.

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arXiv2024

The Advective Flux Transport Model: Improving the Far-Side with Active Regions observed by STEREO 304Å

Observations the Sun's photospheric magnetic field are often confined to the Sun-Earth line. Surface flux transport (SFT) models, such as the Advective Flux Transport (AFT) model, simulate the evolution of the photospheric magnetic field to produce magnetic maps over the entire surface of the Sun. While these models are able to evolve active regions that transit the near-side of the Sun, new far-side side flux emergence is typically neglected. We demonstrate a new method for creating improved maps of magnetic field over the Sun's entire photosphere using data obtained by the STEREO mission. The STEREO He II 304 Åintensity images are used to infer the time, location, and total unsigned magnetic flux of far-side active regions. We have developed and automatic detection algorithm for finding and ingesting new far-side active region emergence into the AFT model. We conduct a series of simulations to investigate the impact of including active region emergence in AFT, both with and without data assimilation of magnetograms. We find that while the He II 304 Åcan be used to improve surface flux models, but care must taken to mitigate intensity surges from flaring events. We estimate that during Solar Cycle 24 maximum (2011-2015), 4-6 x 10^22 Mx of flux is missing from SFT models that do not include far-side data. We find that while He II 304 Ådata alone can be used to create synchronic maps of photospheric magnetic field that resemble the observations, it is insufficient to produce a complete picture without direct magnetic observations from magnetographs.

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arXiv2024

Assessing the Performance of the ADAPT and AFT Flux Transport Models Using In-Situ Measurements From Multiple Satellites

The launches of Parker Solar Probe (Parker) and Solar Orbiter (SolO) are enabling a new era of solar wind studies that track the solar wind from its origin at the photosphere, through the corona, to multiple vantage points in the inner heliosphere. A key ingredient for these models is the input photospheric magnetic field map that provides the boundary condition for the coronal portion of many heliospheric models. In this paper, we perform steady-state, data-driven magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations of the solar wind during Carrington rotation 2258 with the GAMERA model. We use the ADAPT and AFT flux transport models and quantitatively assess how well each model matches in-situ measurements from Parker, SolO, and Earth. We find that both models reproduce the magnetic field components at Parker quantitatively well. At SolO and Earth, the magnetic field is reproduced relatively well, though not as well as at Parker, and the density is reproduced extremely poorly. The velocity is overpredicted at Parker, but not at SolO or Earth, hinting that the Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) relation, fine-tuned for Earth, misses the deceleration of the solar wind near the Sun. We conclude that AFT performs quantitatively similarly to ADAPT in all cases and that both models are comparable to a purely WSA heliospheric treatment with no MHD component. Finally, we trace field lines from SolO back to an active region outflow that was observed by Hinode/EIS, and which shows evidence of elevated charge state ratios.

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arXiv2024

Predicting the Timing of the the Solar Cycle 25 Polar Field Reversal

The process of the Sun's polar field cancellation reversal commences with the emergence of new cycle Hale's polarity active regions. Once the Sun undergoes polarity reversal, typically occurring near the peak of solar activity, it begins the process of accumulating the seed field for the forthcoming solar cycle. In recent years, the Advective Flux Transport (AFT) model has proven highly effective in forecasting the progression of polar fields by leveraging observations of surface flows and magnetic flux emergence. In this study, we make use of the predictive capability of the AFT model to simulate the evolution of the polar fields and estimate the timing of the Solar Cycle 25 polarity reversal in both hemispheres of the Sun. We use the statistical properties of active regions along with Solar Cycle~13, which closely resembles the current solar cycle (Cycle~25), to generate synthetic active regions in order to simulate future magnetic flux emergence in AFT to predict the evolution of the polar field. Based on our simulations, we anticipate that the Northern hemisphere of the Sun will undergo a polarity reversal between June 2024 and November 2024, with the center of our distribution at August 2024. In the Southern hemisphere, we anticipate a polarity reversal between November 2024 and July 2025, centered around February 2025. Additionally, assuming that the reversal of the axial dipole moment coincides with the peak of the solar cycle, our findings indicate that Cycle 25 is expected to peak in 2024 (likely between April to August 2024).

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arXiv2023

Solar Cycle Precursors and the Outlook for Cycle 25

Sunspot Cycle 25 over 3 years past the cycle minimum of December 2019. At this point, curve-fitting becomes reliable and consistently indicates a maximum sunspot number of 135+/-10 - slightly larger than Cycle 24's maximum of 116.4, but well below the Cycles 1-24 average of 179 (ranging from 81 for Cycle 6 to 285 for Cycle 19). A geomagnetic precursor, the minimum in the aa-index, and the Sun's magnetic precursors, the polar field strength and axial dipole moment at the time of minimum, are often used to predict the amplitude of the cycle at (or before) the onset of the cycle. We examine Cycle 25 predictions produced by these precursors. The geomagnetic precursor indicated a Cycle 25 slightly stronger than Cycle 24, with a maximum of 132+/-8. The Sun's magnetic precursors indicated that Cycle 25 would be similar to Cycle 24, with a maximum sunspot number of 120+/-10 or 114+/-15. Combining the curve-fitting results with the precursor predictions, we conclude that Cycle 25 will have a maximum smoothed sunspot number of 134+/-8 with maximum occurring late in the fall of 2024. Models for predicting the Sun's magnetic field ahead of minimum, were generally successful at predicting the polar precursors years in advance. The fact that Sun's magnetic precursors at cycle minimum were successfully predicted years before minimum and that the precursors are consistent with the size of Cycle 25 suggests that we can now more reliably predict the solar cycle.

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arXiv2022

Variations in Differential Rotation and Meridional Flow within the Sun's Surface Shear Layer 1996-2022

We measure differential rotation and meridional flow in the Sun's surface shear layer by tracking the motions of the magnetic network seen in magnetograms from SOHO/MDI and SDO/HMI over solar cycles 23, 24, and the start of 25 (1996-2022). We examine the axisymmetric flows derived from 15-24 daily measurements averaged over individual 27-day Carrington rotations. Variations in the differential rotation include the equatorial torsional oscillation - cyclonic flows centered on the active latitudes with slower flows on the poleward sides of the active latitudes and faster flows equatorward. The fast flow band starts at $\sim$45$^\circ$ latitude during the declining phase of the previous cycle and drifts equatorward, terminating at the equator at about the time of cycle minimum. Variations in the differential rotation also include a polar oscillation above 45$^\circ$ with faster rotation at cycle maxima and slower rotation at cycle minima. The equatorial variations were stronger in cycle 24 than in cycle 23 but the polar variations were weaker. Variations in the meridional flow include a slowing of the poleward flow in the active latitudes during cycle rise and maximum and a speeding up of the poleward flow during cycle decline and minimum. The slowing in the active latitudes was less pronounced in cycle 24 than in cycle 23. Polar countercells (equatorward flow) extend from the poles down to $\sim$60$^\circ$ latitude from time to time (1996-2000 and 2016-2022 in the south and 2001-2011 and 2017-2022 in the north). Both axisymmetric flows vary in strength with depth. The rotation rate increases inward while the meridional flow weakens inward.

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arXiv2021

Determining the source and eruption dynamics of a stealth CME using NLFFF modelling and MHD simulations

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that exhibit weak or no eruption signatures in the low corona, known as stealth CMEs, are problematic as upon arrival at Earth they can lead to geomagnetic disturbances that were not predicted by space weather forecasters. We investigate the origin and eruption of a stealth event that occurred on 2015 January 3 that was responsible for a strong geomagnetic storm upon its arrival at Earth. To simulate the coronal magnetic field and plasma parameters of the eruption we use a coupled approach. This approach combines an evolutionary nonlinear force-free field model of the global corona with a MHD simulation. The combined simulation approach accurately reproduces the stealth event and suggests that sympathetic eruptions occur. In the combined simulation we found that three flux ropes form and then erupt. The first two flux ropes, which are connected to a large AR complex behind the east limb, erupt first producing two near-simultaneous CMEs. These CMEs are closely followed by a third, weaker flux rope eruption in the simulation that originated between the periphery of AR 12252 and the southern polar coronal hole. The third eruption coincides with a faint coronal dimming, which appears in the SDO/AIA 211 A observations, that is attributed as the source responsible for the stealth event and later the geomagnetic disturbance at 1 AU. The incorrect interpretation of the stealth event being linked to the occurrence of a single partial halo CME observed by LASCO/C2 is mainly due to the lack of STEREO observations being available at the time of the CMEs. The simulation also shows that the LASCO CME is not a single event but rather two near-simultaneous CMEs. These results show the significance of the coupled data-driven simulation approach in interpreting the eruption and that an operational L5 mission is crucial for space weather forecasting.

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arXiv2020

Investigation of the Middle Corona with SWAP and a Data-Driven Non-Potential Coronal Magnetic Field Model

The large field-of-view of the Sun Watcher using Active Pixel System detector and Image Processing (SWAP) instrument on board the PRoject for Onboard Autonomy 2 (PROBA2) spacecraft provides a unique opportunity to study extended coronal structures observed in EUV in conjunction with global coronal magnetic field simulations. A global non-potential magnetic field model is used to simulate the evolution of the global corona from 1 September 2014 to 31 March 2015, driven by newly emerging bipolar active regions determined from Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) magnetograms. We compare the large-scale structure of the simulated magnetic field with structures seen off-limb in SWAP EUV observations. In particular, we investigate how successful the model is in reproducing regions of closed and open structures; the scale of structures; and compare the evolution of a coronal fan observed over several rotations. The model is found to accurately reproduce observed large-scale off-limb structures. When discrepancies do arise they mainly occur off the east solar limb due to active regions emerging on the far side of the Sun, which cannot be incorporated into the model until they are observed on the Earth-facing side. When such ``late'' active region emergences are incorporated into the model, we find that the simulated corona self-corrects within a few days, so that simulated structures off the west limb more closely match what is observed. Where the model is less successful, we consider how this may be addressed, through model developments or additional observational products.

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arXiv2020

Hydrodynamic Properties of the Sun's Giant Cellular Flows

Measurements of the large cellular flows on the Sun were made by local correlation tracking of supergranules seen in full-disk Doppler images obtained by the HMI instrument on the NASA SDO satellite. The hourly measurements were averaged over 34 days to produce daily maps of the latitudinal and longitudinal velocities. While flows at all latitudes are largely in the form of vortices with left-handed helicity in the north and right-handed helicity in the south, there are key distinctions between the low latitude and high latitudes cells. The low latitude cells have roughly circular shapes, lifetimes of about one month, rotate nearly rigidly, do not drift in latitude, and do not exhibit any correlation between longitudinal and latitudinal flow. The high latitude cells have long extensions that spiral inward toward the poles. They have lifetimes of several months, rotate differentially with latitude, drift poleward at speeds approaching 2 m s$^{-1}$, and have a strong correlation between prograde and equatorward flows. Spherical harmonic spectral analyses confirm that the flows are dominated by the curl component with RMS velocities of about 12 m s$^{-1}$ at wavenumber $\ell$ = 10. Fourier transforms in time indicate two notable components - an $m = \pm\ell$ feature representing the low latitude component and an $m = \pm1$ feature representing the high latitude component. The dispersion relation for the low latitude component is well represented by that derived for Rossby waves. The high latitude component has a constant temporal frequency for all $\ell$ indicating features advected by differential rotation at rates representative of the base of the convection zone high latitudes. The poleward motions of these features further suggest that the high latitude meridional flow at the base of the convection zone is poleward - not equatorward.

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arXiv2018

An Updated Solar Cycle 25 Prediction with AFT: The Modern Minimum

Over the last decade there has been mounting evidence that the strength of the Sun's polar magnetic fields during a solar cycle minimum is the best predictor of the amplitude of the next solar cycle. Surface flux transport models can be used to extend these predictions by evolving the Sun's surface magnetic field to obtain an earlier prediction for the strength of the polar fields, and thus the amplitude of the next cycle. In 2016, our Advective Flux Transport (AFT) model was used to do this, producing an early prediction for Solar Cycle 25. At that time, AFT predicted that Cycle 25 will be similar in strength to the Cycle 24, with an uncertainty of about 15% . AFT also predicted that the polar fields in the southern hemisphere would weaken in late 2016 and into 2017 before recovering. That AFT prediction was based on the magnetic field configuration at the end of January 2016. We now have 2 more years of observations. We examine the accuracy of the 2016 AFT prediction and find that the new observations track well with AFT's predictions for the last two years. We show that the southern relapse did in fact occur, though the timing was off by several months. We propose a possible cause for the southern relapse and discuss the reason for the offset in timing. Finally, we provide an updated AFT prediction for Solar Cycle 25 which includes solar observations through January of 2018.

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arXiv2017

Modeling Coronal Response in Decaying Active Regions with Magnetic Flux Transport and Steady Heating

We present new measurements of the dependence of the Extreme Ultraviolet radiance on the total magnetic flux in active regions as obtained from the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) and the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). Using observations of nine active regions tracked along different stages of evolution, we extend the known radiance - magnetic flux power-law relationship ($I\proptoΦ^α$) to the AIA 335 Å passband, and the Fe XVIII 93.93 Å spectral line in the 94 Å passband. We find that the total unsigned magnetic flux divided by the polarity separation ($Φ/D$) is a better indicator of radiance for the Fe XVIII line with a slope of $α=3.22\pm0.03$. We then use these results to test our current understanding of magnetic flux evolution and coronal heating. We use magnetograms from the simulated decay of these active regions produced by the Advective Flux Transport (AFT) model as boundary conditions for potential extrapolations of the magnetic field in the corona. We then model the hydrodynamics of each individual field line with the Enthalpy-based Thermal Evolution of Loops (EBTEL) model with steady heating scaled as the ratio of the average field strength and the length ($\bar{B}/L$) and render the Fe XVIII and 335 Å emission. We find that steady heating is able to partially reproduce the magnitudes and slopes of the EUV radiance - magnetic flux relationships and discuss how impulsive heating can help reconcile the discrepancies. This study demonstrates that combined models of magnetic flux transport, magnetic topology and heating can yield realistic estimates for the decay of active region radiances with time.

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arXiv2016

Predicting the Amplitude and Hemispheric Asymmetry of Solar Cycle 25 with Surface Flux Transport

Evidence strongly indicates that the strength of the Sun's polar fields near the time of a sunspot cycle minimum determines the strength of the following solar activity cycle. We use our Advective Flux Transport (AFT) code, with flows well constrained by observations, to simulate the evolution of the Sun's polar magnetic fields from early 2016 to the end of 2019 --- near the expected time of Cycle 24/25 minimum. We run a series of simulations in which the uncertain conditions (convective motion details, active region tilt, and meridional flow profile) are varied within expected ranges. We find that the average strength of the polar fields near the end of Cycle 24 will be similar to that measured near the end of Cycle 23, indicating that Cycle 25 will be similar in strength to the current cycle. In all cases the polar fields are asymmetric with fields in the south stronger than those in the north. This asymmetry would be more pronounced if not for the predicted weakening of the southern polar fields in late 2016 and through 2017. After just four years of simulation the variability across our ensemble indicates an accumulated uncertainty of about 15\%. This accumulated uncertainty arises from stochastic variations in the convective motion details, the active region tilt, and changes in the meridional flow profile. These variations limit the ultimate predictability of the solar cycle.

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