arXiv subjects

Lishuai Li

Publications and source records attributed to Lishuai Li.

12 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

little m: An AI Agent for Industrial Process Optimization

Manufacturing consumes one third of global energy and still has significant room for improvement in terms of energy efficiency. Optimal process control is essential for this purpose. However, synthesizing mathematical optimization models from messy, real-world industrial specifications requires bridging unstructured natural language and spatial diagrams with rigorous mathematical syntax. This poses a profound challenge for general-purpose Large Language Models (LLMs), which may introduce invalid constraints when tasked with modeling continuous multi-physics dynamics. To address this, we introduce little m, an AI agent designed to assist the formulation of industrial process control models. Combining a domain-specific knowledge repository with LLM-driven interaction, the proposed framework formulates real-world optimization problems as mathematical models. For systematic evaluation, we introduce the Industrial Process Control Benchmark (IPC-Bench), a novel multimodal dataset of 50 canonical scenarios requiring joint reasoning over text and process diagrams. Through comprehensive automated structural assessments and double-blind human evaluation, little m substantially outperforms state-of-the-art LLMs, generating semantically correct models. These evaluations assess formulation quality rather than solver feasibility, formal physical validity, or closed-loop industrial performance. The implementation of little m and the IPC-Bench dataset are available at https://github.com/yeyongchao/process-modeling-benchmark.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

Learning Satellite Pattern-of-Life Identification: A Diffusion-based Approach

As Earth's orbital satellite population grows exponentially, effective space situational awareness becomes critical for collision prevention and sustainable operations. Current approaches to monitor satellite behaviors rely on expert knowledge and rule-based systems that scale poorly. Among essential monitoring tasks, satellite pattern-of-life (PoL) identification, analyzing behaviors like station-keeping maneuvers and drift operations, remains underdeveloped due to aerospace system complexity, operational variability, and inconsistent ephemerides sources. We propose a novel generative approach for satellite PoL identification that significantly eliminates the dependence on expert knowledge. The proposed approach leverages orbital elements and positional data to enable automatic pattern discovery directly from observations. Our implementation uses a diffusion model framework for end-to-end identification without manual refinement or domain expertise. The architecture combines a multivariate time-series encoder to capture hidden representations of satellite positional data with a conditional denoising process to generate accurate PoL classifications. Through experiments across diverse real-world satellite operational scenarios, our approach demonstrates superior identification quality and robustness across varying data quality characteristics. A case study using actual satellite data confirms the approach's transformative potential for operational behavior pattern identification, enhanced tracking, and space situational awareness.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Integrated Prediction and Distributionally Robust Optimization for Air Traffic Management

Strategic Traffic Management Initiatives (TMIs) such as Ground Delay Programs (GDPs) play a crucial role in mitigating operational costs associated with air traffic demand-capacity imbalances. However, GDPs can only be planned (e.g., duration, delay assignments) with confidence if the future capacities at constrained resources (i.e., airports) are predictable. In reality, such future capacities are uncertain, and predictive models may provide predictions that are vulnerable to errors and distribution shifts. Motivated by the goal of planning optimal GDPs that are distributionally robust against airport capacity prediction errors, we study a fully integrated learning-driven optimization framework. We design a deep learning-based prediction model capable of forecasting arrival and departure capacity distributions across a network of airports. We incorporate the predictions into a distributionally robust formulation of the multi-airport ground holding program (DR-MAGHP). Our results demonstrate that DR-MAGHP can achieve up to a 15.6% improvement over the stochastic programming formulation (SP-MAGHP) under airport capacity distribution shifts. We conclude by outlining future research directions aimed at enhancing both the learning and optimization components of the framework.

math.OC↗

arXiv2025

Use ADAS Data to Predict Near-Miss Events: A Group-Based Zero-Inflated Poisson Approach

Driving behavior big data leverages multi-sensor telematics to understand how people drive and powers applications such as risk evaluation, insurance pricing, and targeted intervention. Usage-based insurance (UBI) built on these data has become mainstream. Telematics-captured near-miss events (NMEs) provide a timely alternative to claim-based risk, but weekly NMEs are sparse, highly zero-inflated, and behaviorally heterogeneous even after exposure normalization. Analyzing multi-sensor telematics and ADAS warnings, we show that the traditional statistical models underfit the dataset. We address these challenges by proposing a set of zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) frameworks that learn latent behavior groups and fit offset-based count models via EM to yield calibrated, interpretable weekly risk predictions. Using a naturalistic dataset from a fleet of 354 commercial drivers over a year, during which the drivers completed 287,511 trips and logged 8,142,896 km in total, our results show consistent improvements over baselines and prior telematics models, with lower AIC/BIC values in-sample and better calibration out-of-sample. We also conducted sensitivity analyses on the EM-based grouping for the number of clusters, finding that the gains were robust and interpretable. Practically, this supports context-aware ratemaking on a weekly basis and fairer premiums by recognizing heterogeneous driving styles.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2024

Distributionally Robust Ground Delay Programs with Learning-Driven Airport Capacity Predictions

Strategic Traffic Management Initiatives (TMIs) such as Ground Delay Programs (GDPs) play a crucial role in mitigating operational costs associated with demand-capacity imbalances. However, GDPs can only be planned (e.g., duration, delay assignments) with confidence if the future capacities at constrained resources (i.e., airports) are predictable. In reality, such future capacities are uncertain, and predictive models may provide forecasts that are vulnerable to errors and distribution shifts. Motivated by the goal of planning optimal GDPs that are \emph{distributionally robust} against airport capacity prediction errors, we study a fully integrated learning-driven optimization framework. We design a deep learning-based prediction model capable of forecasting arrival and departure capacity distributions across a network of airports. We then integrate the forecasts into a distributionally robust formulation of the multi-airport ground holding problem (\textsc{dr-MAGHP}). We show how \textsc{dr-MAGHP} can outperform stochastic optimization when distribution shifts occur, and conclude with future research directions to improve both the learning and optimization stages.

math.OC↗

arXiv2023

Remaining Useful Life Modelling with an Escalator Health Condition Analytic System

The refurbishment of an escalator is usually linked with its design life as recommended by the manufacturer. However, the actual useful life of an escalator should be determined by its operating condition which is affected by the runtime, workload, maintenance quality, vibration, etc., rather than age only. The objective of this project is to develop a comprehensive health condition analytic system for escalators to support refurbishment decisions. The analytic system consists of four parts: 1) online data gathering and processing; 2) a dashboard for condition monitoring; 3) a health index model; and 4) remaining useful life prediction. The results can be used for a) predicting the remaining useful life of the escalators, in order to support asset replacement planning and b) monitoring the real-time condition of escalators; including alerts when vibration exceeds the threshold and signal diagnosis, giving an indication of possible root cause (components) of the alert signal.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2022

A Route Network Planning Method for Urban Air Delivery

High-tech giants and start-ups are investing in drone technologies to provide urban air delivery service, which is expected to solve the last-mile problem and mitigate road traffic congestion. However, air delivery service will not scale up without proper traffic management for drones in dense urban environment. Currently, a range of Concepts of Operations (ConOps) for unmanned aircraft system traffic management (UTM) are being proposed and evaluated by researchers, operators, and regulators. Among these, the tube-based (or corridor-based) ConOps has emerged in operations in some regions of the world for drone deliveries and is expected to continue serving certain scenarios that with dense and complex airspace and requires centralized control in the future. Towards the tube-based ConOps, we develop a route network planning method to design routes (tubes) in a complex urban environment in this paper. In this method, we propose a priority structure to decouple the network planning problem, which is NP-hard, into single-path planning problems. We also introduce a novel space cost function to enable the design of dense and aligned routes in a network. The proposed method is tested on various scenarios and compared with other state-of-the-art methods. Results show that our method can generate near-optimal route networks with significant computational time-savings.

cs.MA↗

arXiv2022

Multi-Graph Convolutional-Recurrent Neural Network (MGC-RNN) for Short-Term Forecasting of Transit Passenger Flow

Short-term forecasting of passenger flow is critical for transit management and crowd regulation. Spatial dependencies, temporal dependencies, inter-station correlations driven by other latent factors, and exogenous factors bring challenges to the short-term forecasts of passenger flow of urban rail transit networks. An innovative deep learning approach, Multi-Graph Convolutional-Recurrent Neural Network (MGC-RNN) is proposed to forecast passenger flow in urban rail transit systems to incorporate these complex factors. We propose to use multiple graphs to encode the spatial and other heterogenous inter-station correlations. The temporal dynamics of the inter-station correlations are also modeled via the proposed multi-graph convolutional-recurrent neural network structure. Inflow and outflow of all stations can be collectively predicted with multiple time steps ahead via a sequence to sequence(seq2seq) architecture. The proposed method is applied to the short-term forecasts of passenger flow in Shenzhen Metro, China. The experimental results show that MGC-RNN outperforms the benchmark algorithms in terms of forecasting accuracy. Besides, it is found that the inter-station driven by network distance, network structure, and recent flow patterns are significant factors for passenger flow forecasting. Moreover, the architecture of LSTM-encoder-decoder can capture the temporal dependencies well. In general, the proposed framework could provide multiple views of passenger flow dynamics for fine prediction and exhibit a possibility for multi-source heterogeneous data fusion in the spatiotemporal forecast tasks.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

An Incremental Clustering Method for Anomaly Detection in Flight Data

Safety is a top priority for civil aviation. New anomaly detection methods, primarily clustering methods, have been developed to monitor pilot operations and detect any risks from such flight data. However, all existing anomaly detection methods are offlline learning - the models are trained once using historical data and used for all future predictions. In practice, new flight data are accumulated continuously and analyzed every month at airlines. Clustering such dynamically growing data is challenging for an offlline method because it is memory and time intensive to re-train the model every time new data come in. If the model is not re-trained, false alarms or missed detections may increase since the model cannot reflect changes in data patterns. To address this problem, we propose a novel incremental anomaly detection method based on Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) to identify common patterns and detect outliers in flight operations from digital flight data. It is a probabilistic clustering model of flight operations that can incrementally update its clusters based on new data rather than to re-cluster all data from scratch. It trains an initial GMM model based on historical offlline data. Then, it continuously adapts to new incoming data points via an expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm. To track changes in flight operation patterns, only model parameters need to be saved. The proposed method was tested on three sets of simulation data and two sets of real-world flight data. Compared with the traditional offline GMM method, the proposed method can generate similar clustering results with significantly reduced processing time (57 % - 99 % time reduction in testing sets) and memory usage (91 % - 95 % memory usage reduction in testing sets). Preliminary results indicate that the incremental learning scheme is effective in dealing with dynamically growing data in flight data analytics.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

From Aircraft Tracking Data to Network Delay Model: A Data-Driven Approach Considering En-Route Congestion

En-route congestion causes delays in air traffic networks and will become more prominent as air traffic demand will continue to increase yet airspace volume cannot grow. However, most existing studies on flight delay modeling do not consider en-route congestion explicitly. In this study, we propose a new flight delay model, Multi-layer Air Traffic Network Delay (MATND) model, to capture the impact of en-route congestion on flight delays over an air traffic network. This model is developed by a data-driven approach, taking aircraft tracking data and flight schedules as inputs to characterize a national air traffic network, as well as a system-level model approach, modeling the delay process based on queueing theory. The two approaches combined make the network delay model a close representation of reality and easy-to-implement for what-if scenario analysis. The proposed MATND model includes 1) a data-driven method to learn a network composed of airports, en-route congestion points, and air corridors from aircraft tracking data, 2) a stochastic and dynamic queuing network model to calculate flight delays and track their propagation at both airports and in en-route congestion areas, in which the delays are computed via a space-time decomposition method. Using one month of historical aircraft tracking data over China's air traffic network, MATND is tested and shows to give an accurate quantification of delays of the national air traffic network. "What-if" scenario analyses are conducted to demonstrate how the proposed model can be used for the evaluation of air traffic network improvement strategies, where the manipulation of reality at such a scale is impossible. Results show that MATND is computationally efficient, well suited for evaluating the impact of policy alternatives on system-wide delay at a macroscopic level.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2021

Flight Time Prediction for Fuel Loading Decisions with a Deep Learning Approach

Under increasing economic and environmental pressure, airlines are constantly seeking new technologies and optimizing flight operations to reduce fuel consumption. However, the current practice on fuel loading, which has a significant impact on aircraft weight and fuel consumption, has yet to be thoroughly addressed by existing studies. Excess fuel is loaded by dispatchers and (or) pilots to handle fuel consumption uncertainties, primarily caused by flight time uncertainties, which cannot be predicted by current Flight Planning Systems. In this paper, we develop a novel spatial weighted recurrent neural network model to provide better flight time predictions by capturing air traffic information at a national scale based on multiple data sources, including Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast, Meteorological Aerodrome Reports, and airline records. In this model, a spatial weighted layer is designed to extract spatial dependences among network delay states. Then, a new training procedure associated with the spatial weighted layer is introduced to extract OD-specific spatial weights. Long short-term memory networks are used to extract the temporal behavior patterns of network delay states. Finally, features from delays, weather, and flight schedules are fed into a fully connected neural network to predict the flight time of a particular flight. The proposed model was evaluated using one year of historical data from an airline's real operations. Results show that our model can provide more accurate flight time predictions than baseline methods, especially for flights with extreme delays. We also show that, with the improved flight time prediction, fuel loading can be optimized and resulting in reduced fuel consumption by 0.016%-1.915% without increasing the fuel depletion risk.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Data-driven Method for Estimating Aircraft Mass from Quick Access Recorder using Aircraft Dynamics and Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network

Accurate aircraft-mass estimation is critical to airlines from the safety-management and performance-optimization viewpoints. Overloading an aircraft with passengers and baggage might result in a safety hazard. In contrast, not fully utilizing an aircraft's payload-carrying capacity undermines its operational efficiency and airline profitability. However, accurate determination of the aircraft mass for each operating flight is not feasible because it is impractical to weigh each aircraft component, including the payload. The existing methods for aircraft-mass estimation are dependent on the aircraft- and engine-performance parameters, which are usually considered proprietary information. Moreover, the values of these parameters vary under different operating conditions while those of others might be subject to large estimation errors. This paper presents a data-driven method involving use of the quick access recorder (QAR)-a digital flight-data recorder-installed on all aircrafts to record the initial aircraft climb mass during each flight. The method requires users to select appropriate parameters among several thousand others recorded by the QAR using physical models. The selected data are subsequently processed and provided as input to a multilayer perceptron neural network for building the model for initial-climb aircraft-mass prediction. Thus, the proposed method offers the advantages of both the model-based and data-driven approaches for aircraft-mass estimation. Because this method does not explicitly rely on any aircraft or engine parameter, it is universally applicable to all aircraft types. In this study, the proposed method was applied to a set of Boeing 777-300ER aircrafts, the results of which demonstrated reasonable accuracy. Airlines can use this tool to better utilize aircraft's payload.

cs.LG↗