arXiv subjects

Liyuan Lin

Publications and source records attributed to Liyuan Lin.

14 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Universal Value-at-Risk superadditivity

Value-at-Risk (VaR) is a standard regulatory risk measure, and its failure of subadditivity is well known. Much less appreciated is that for sufficiently heavy-tailed losses, VaR can be superadditive uniformly across all probability levels, a phenomenon strictly stronger than the asymptotic superadditivity studied in extreme value theory. We call this property universal VaR superadditivity (UVS). We study UVS and its stronger weighted version (WUVS) as properties of random vectors rather than of marginal distributions. This perspective unifies and extends a recent line of work on iid infinite-mean models. UVS, except for trivial cases, imposes an infinite-mean structure. We establish preservation properties of UVS and WUVS under increasing and convex transformations, weak convergence, and certain distributional mixtures, and use these tools to prove UVS and WUVS for non-identically distributed risks in several large families including completely subscalable, super-Cauchy, and inverted subadditive risks, extending results previously available only in the iid case. In many results, we also establish strict versions of UVS and WUVS, which lead to stronger decision-theoretic implications. As a consequence, for any portfolio satisfying WUVS, every distortion risk measure is superadditive, so an optimal allocation concentrates on a single asset, and diversification is never beneficial.

q-fin.RM↗

arXiv2025

Empirical estimator of diversification quotient

The Diversification Quotient (DQ), introduced by Han et al. (2025), is a recently proposed measure of portfolio diversification that quantifies the reduction in a portfolio's risk-level parameter attributable to diversification. Grounded in a rigorous theoretical framework, DQ effectively captures heavy tails, common shocks, and enhances efficiency in portfolio optimization. This paper further explores the convergence properties and asymptotic normality of empirical DQ estimators based on Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES), with explicit calculation of the asymptotic variance. In contrast to the diversification ratio (DR) proposed by Tasche (2007), which may exhibit diverging asymptotic variance due to its lack of location invariance, the DQ estimators demonstrate greater robustness under various distributional settings. We further verify their asymptotic properties under elliptical distributions through simulation, and construct confidence intervals for DQ estimates using AR-GARCH models with a residual-based bootstrap on real financial data. These results establish a solid statistical foundation for applying DQ in financial risk management and decision-making.

q-fin.RM↗

arXiv2024

Diversification quotient based on expectiles

A diversification quotient (DQ) quantifies diversification in stochastic portfolio models based on a family of risk measures. We study DQ based on expectiles, offering a useful alternative to conventional risk measures such as Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES). The expectile-based DQ admits simple formulas and has a natural connection to the Omega ratio. Moreover, the expectile-based DQ is not affected by small-sample issues faced by VaR-based or ES-based DQ due to the scarcity of tail data. The expectile-based DQ exhibits pseudo-convexity in portfolio weights, allowing gradient descent algorithms for portfolio selection. We show that the corresponding optimization problem can be efficiently solved using linear programming techniques in real-data applications. Explicit formulas for DQ based on expectiles are also derived for elliptical and multivariate regularly varying distribution models. Our findings enhance the understanding of the DQ's role in financial risk management and highlight its potential to improve portfolio construction strategies.

q-fin.PM↗

arXiv2024

The checkerboard copula and dependence concepts

We study the problem of choosing the copula when the marginal distributions of a random vector are not all continuous. Inspired by four motivating examples including simulation from copulas, stress scenarios, co-risk measures, and dependence measures, we propose to use the checkerboard copula, that is, intuitively, the unique copula with a distribution that is as uniform as possible within regions of flexibility. We show that the checkerboard copula has the largest Shannon entropy, which means that it carries the least information among all possible copulas for a given random vector. Furthermore, the checkerboard copula preserves the dependence information of the original random vector, leading to two applications in the context of diversification penalty and impact portfolios. The numerical and empirical results illustrate the benefits of using the checkerboard copula in the calculation of co-risk measures.

q-fin.RM↗

arXiv2024

Optimal risk sharing, equilibria, and welfare with empirically realistic risk attitudes

This paper examines optimal risk sharing. It brings in empirical realism, reckoning with the risk seeking found empirically. We provide results on Pareto optimality, competitive equilibria, utility frontiers, and the first and second theorems of welfare. Empirical studies have found prevailing risk seeking in several subdomains. Thus, as a first step to increase empirical realism, we allow for some risk-seeking agents, still assuming expected utility. Yet more empirical realism is obtained by generalizing expected utility and allowing agents' attitudes to combine risk aversion in some domains with risk seeking in others. We provide results and show directions for future research.

econ.TH↗

arXiv2023

Invariant correlation under marginal transforms

A useful property of independent samples is that their correlation remains the same after applying marginal transforms. This invariance property plays a fundamental role in statistical inference, but does not hold in general for dependent samples. In this paper, we study this invariance property on the Pearson correlation coefficient and its applications. A multivariate random vector is said to have an invariant correlation if its pairwise correlation coefficients remain unchanged under any common marginal transforms. For a bivariate case, we characterize all models of such a random vector via a certain combination of comonotonicity -- the strongest form of positive dependence -- and independence. In particular, we show that the class of exchangeable copulas with invariant correlation is precisely described by what we call positive Fr\'echet copulas. In the general multivariate case, we characterize the set of all invariant correlation matrices via the clique partition polytope. We also propose a positive regression dependent model that admits any prescribed invariant correlation matrix. Finally, we show that all our characterization results of invariant correlation, except one special case, remain the same if the common marginal transforms are confined to the set of increasing ones.

math.ST↗

arXiv2023

The optimal reinsurance strategy with price-competition between two reinsurers

We study optimal reinsurance in the framework of stochastic game theory, in which there is an insurer and two reinsurers. A Stackelberg model is established to analyze the non-cooperative relationship between the insurer and reinsurers, where the insurer is considered as the follower and the reinsurers are considered as the leaders. The insurer is a price taker who determines reinsurance demand in the reinsurance market, while the reinsurers can price the reinsurance treaties. Our contribution is to use a Nash game to describe the price-competition between two reinsurers. We assume that one of the reinsurers adopts the variance premium principle and the other adopts the expected value premium principle. The insurer and the reinsurers aim to maximize their respective mean-variance cost functions which lead to a time-inconsistency control problem. To overcome the time-inconsistency issue in the game, we formulate the optimization problem of each player as an embedded game and solve it via a corresponding extended Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation. We find that the insurer will sign propositional and excess loss reinsurance strategies with reinsurer 1 and reinsurer 2, respectively. When the claim size follows exponential distribution, there exists a unique equilibrium reinsurance premium strategy. Our numerical analysis verifies the impact of claim size, risk aversion and interest rates of the insurer and reinsurers on equilibrium reinsurance strategy and premium strategy, which can help to understand competition in the reinsurance market

q-fin.MF↗

arXiv2023

Pairwise counter-monotonicity

We systematically study pairwise counter-monotonicity, an extremal notion of negative dependence. A stochastic representation and an invariance property are established for this dependence structure. We show that pairwise counter-monotonicity implies negative association, and it is equivalent to joint mix dependence if both are possible for the same marginal distributions. We find an intimate connection between pairwise counter-monotonicity and risk sharing problems for quantile agents. This result highlights the importance of this extremal negative dependence structure in optimal allocations for agents who are not risk averse in the classic sense.

q-fin.RM↗

arXiv2023

Risk sharing, measuring variability, and distortion riskmetrics

We address the problem of sharing risk among agents with preferences modelled by a general class of comonotonic additive and law-based functionals that need not be either monotone or convex. Such functionals are called distortion riskmetrics, which include many statistical measures of risk and variability used in portfolio optimization and insurance. The set of Pareto-optimal allocations is characterized under various settings of general or comonotonic risk sharing problems. We solve explicitly Pareto-optimal allocations among agents using the Gini deviation, the mean-median deviation, or the inter-quantile difference as the relevant variability measures. The latter is of particular interest, as optimal allocations are not comonotonic in the presence of inter-quantile difference agents; instead, the optimal allocation features a mixture of pairwise counter-monotonic structures, showing some patterns of extremal negative dependence.

q-fin.RM↗

arXiv2023

Diversification quotients based on VaR and ES

The diversification quotient (DQ) is recently introduced for quantifying the degree of diversification of a stochastic portfolio model. It has an axiomatic foundation and can be defined through a parametric class of risk measures. Since the Value-at-Risk (VaR) and the Expected Shortfall (ES) are the most prominent risk measures widely used in both banking and insurance, we investigate DQ constructed from VaR and ES in this paper. In particular, for the popular models of elliptical and multivariate regular varying (MRV) distributions, explicit formulas are available. The portfolio optimization problems for the elliptical and MRV models are also studied. Our results further reveal favourable features of DQ, both theoretically and practically, compared to traditional diversification indices based on a single risk measure.

q-fin.RM↗

arXiv2022

Diversification quotients: Quantifying diversification via risk measures

We establish the first axiomatic theory for diversification indices using six intuitive axioms: non-negativity, location invariance, scale invariance, rationality, normalization, and continuity. The unique class of indices satisfying these axioms, called the diversification quotients (DQs), are defined based on a parametric family of risk measures. A further axiom of portfolio convexity pins down DQ based on coherent risk measures. DQ has many attractive properties, and it can address several theoretical and practical limitations of existing indices. In particular, for the popular risk measures Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall, the corresponding DQ admits simple formulas and it is efficient to optimize in portfolio selection. Moreover, it can properly capture tail heaviness and common shocks, which are neglected by traditional diversification indices. When illustrated with financial data, DQ is intuitive to interpret, and its performance is competitive against other diversification indices.

q-fin.RM↗

arXiv2022

Joint mixability and notions of negative dependence

A joint mix is a random vector with a constant component-wise sum. The dependence structure of a joint mix minimizes some common objectives such as the variance of the component-wise sum, and it is regarded as a concept of extremal negative dependence. In this paper, we explore the connection between the joint mix structure and popular notions of negative dependence in statistics, such as negative correlation dependence, negative orthant dependence and negative association. A joint mix is not always negatively dependent in any of the above senses, but some natural classes of joint mixes are. We derive various necessary and sufficient conditions for a joint mix to be negatively dependent, and study the compatibility of these notions. For identical marginal distributions, we show that a negatively dependent joint mix solves a multi-marginal optimal transport problem for quadratic cost under a novel setting of uncertainty. Analysis of this optimal transport problem with heterogeneous marginals reveals a trade-off between negative dependence and the joint mix structure.

math.ST↗

arXiv2022

Calibrating distribution models from PELVE

The Value-at-Risk (VaR) and the Expected Shortfall (ES) are the two most popular risk measures in banking and insurance regulation. To bridge between the two regulatory risk measures, the Probability Equivalent Level of VaR-ES (PELVE) was recently proposed to convert a level of VaR to that of ES. It is straightforward to compute the value of PELVE for a given distribution model. In this paper, we study the converse problem of PELVE calibration, that is, to find a distribution model that yields a given PELVE, which may either be obtained from data or from expert opinion. We discuss separately the cases when one-point, two-point, n-point and curve constraints are given. In the most complicated case of a curve constraint, we convert the calibration problem to that of an advanced differential equation. We apply the model calibration techniques to estimation and simulation for datasets used in insurance. We further study some technical properties of PELVE by offering a few new results on monotonicity and convergence.

q-fin.RM↗

arXiv2021

Risk Aggregation under Dependence Uncertainty and an Order Constraint

We study the aggregation of two risks when the marginal distributions are known and the dependence structure is unknown, under the additional constraint that one risk is smaller than or equal to the other. Risk aggregation problems with the order constraint are closely related to the recently introduced notion of the directional lower (DL) coupling. The largest aggregate risk in concave order (thus, the smallest aggregate risk in convex order) is attained by the DL coupling. These results are further generalized to calculate the best-case and worst-case values of tail risk measures. In particular, we obtain analytical formulas for bounds on Value-at-Risk. Our numerical results suggest that the new bounds on risk measures with the extra order constraint can greatly improve those with full dependence uncertainty.

q-fin.RM↗