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Lloyd Knox

Publications and source records attributed to Lloyd Knox.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources
arXiv2020

Cosmology Intertwined II: The Hubble Constant Tension

The current cosmological probes have provided a fantastic confirmation of the standard $Λ$ Cold Dark Matter cosmological model, that has been constrained with unprecedented accuracy. However, with the increase of the experimental sensitivity a few statistically significant tensions between different independent cosmological datasets emerged. While these tensions can be in portion the result of systematic errors, the persistence after several years of accurate analysis strongly hints at cracks in the standard cosmological scenario and the need for new physics. In this Letter of Interest we will focus on the $4.4σ$ tension between the Planck estimate of the Hubble constant $H_0$ and the SH0ES collaboration measurements. After showing the $H_0$ evaluations made from different teams using different methods and geometric calibrations, we will list a few interesting new physics models that could solve this tension and discuss how the next decade experiments will be crucial.

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arXiv2020

Cosmology Intertwined I: Perspectives for the Next Decade

The standard $Λ$ Cold Dark Matter cosmological model provides an amazing description of a wide range of astrophysical and astronomical data. However, there are a few big open questions, that make the standard model look like a first-order approximation to a more realistic scenario that still needs to be fully understood. In this Letter of Interest we will list a few important goals that need to be addressed in the next decade, also taking into account the current discordances present between the different cosmological probes, as the Hubble constant $H_0$ value, the $σ_8 - S_8$ tension, and the anomalies present in the Planck results. Finally, we will give an overview of upgraded experiments and next-generation space-missions and facilities on Earth, that will be of crucial importance to address all these questions.

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arXiv2020

Cosmology Intertwined IV: The Age of the Universe and its Curvature

A precise measurement of the curvature of the Universe is of primeval importance for cosmology since it could not only confirm the paradigm of primordial inflation but also help in discriminating between different early Universe scenarios. The recent observations, while broadly consistent with a spatially flat standard $Λ$ Cold Dark Matter ($Λ$CDM) model, are showing tensions that still allow (and, in some cases, even suggest) a few percent deviations from a flat universe. In particular, the Planck Cosmic Microwave Background power spectra, assuming the nominal likelihood, prefer a closed universe at more than 99\% confidence level. While new physics could be in action, this anomaly may be the result of an unresolved systematic error or just a statistical fluctuation. However, since a positive curvature allows a larger age of the Universe, an accurate determination of the age of the oldest objects provides a smoking gun in confirming or falsifying the current flat $Λ$CDM model.

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arXiv2019

The Hubble Hunter's Guide

Measurements of the Hubble constant, and more generally measurements of the expansion rate and distances over the interval $0 < z < 1$, appear to be inconsistent with the predictions of the standard cosmological model ($Λ$CDM) given observations of cosmic microwave background temperature and polarization anisotropies. Here we consider a variety of types of departures from $Λ$CDM that could, in principle, restore concordance among these datasets, and we explain why we find almost all of them unlikely to be successful. We single out the set of solutions that increase the expansion rate in the decade of scale factor expansion just prior to recombination as the least unlikely. These solutions are themselves tightly constrained by their impact on photon diffusion and on the gravitational driving of acoustic oscillations of the modes that begin oscillating during this epoch -- modes that project on to angular scales that are very well measured. We point out that a general feature of such solutions is a residual to fits to $Λ$CDM, like the one observed in Planck power spectra. This residual drives the modestly significant inferences of angular-scale dependence to the matter density and anomalously high lensing power, puzzling aspects of a data set that is otherwise extremely well fit by $Λ$CDM.

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arXiv2019

Research and Development for HI Intensity Mapping

Development of the hardware, data analysis, and simulation techniques for large compact radio arrays dedicated to mapping the 21 cm line of neutral hydrogen gas has proven to be more difficult than imagined twenty years ago when such telescopes were first proposed. Despite tremendous technical and methodological advances, there are several outstanding questions on how to optimally calibrate and analyze such data. On the positive side, it has become clear that the outstanding issues are purely technical in nature and can be solved with sufficient development activity. Such activity will enable science across redshifts, from early galaxy evolution in the pre-reionization era to dark energy evolution at low redshift.

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arXiv2019

Sounds Discordant: Classical Distance Ladder & $Λ$CDM -based Determinations of the Cosmological Sound Horizon

Type Ia Supernovae, calibrated by classical distance ladder methods, can be used, in conjunction with galaxy survey two-point correlation functions, to empirically determine the size of the sound horizon $r_{\rm s}$. Assumption of the $Λ$CDM model, together with data to constrain its parameters, can also be used to determine the size of the sound horizon. Using a variety of cosmic microwave background (CMB) datasets to constrain $Λ$CDM parameters, we find the model-based sound horizon to be larger than the empirically-determined one with a statistical significance of between 2 and 3$σ$, depending on the dataset. If reconciliation requires a change to the cosmological model, we argue that change is likely to be important in the two decades of scale factor evolution prior to recombination. Future CMB observations will therefore likely be able to test any such adjustments; e.g., a third generation CMB survey like SPT-3G can achieve a three-fold improvement in the constraints on $r_{\rm s}$ in the $Λ$CDM model extended to allow additional light degrees of freedom.

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arXiv2019

Primordial Non-Gaussianity

Our current understanding of the Universe is established through the pristine measurements of structure in the cosmic microwave background (CMB) and the distribution and shapes of galaxies tracing the large scale structure (LSS) of the Universe. One key ingredient that underlies cosmological observables is that the field that sources the observed structure is assumed to be initially Gaussian with high precision. Nevertheless, a minimal deviation from Gaussianityis perhaps the most robust theoretical prediction of models that explain the observed Universe; itis necessarily present even in the simplest scenarios. In addition, most inflationary models produce far higher levels of non-Gaussianity. Since non-Gaussianity directly probes the dynamics in the early Universe, a detection would present a monumental discovery in cosmology, providing clues about physics at energy scales as high as the GUT scale.

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arXiv2019

Probing the origin of our Universe through cosmic microwave background constraints on gravitational waves

The next generation of instruments designed to measure the polarization of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) will provide a historic opportunity to open the gravitational wave window to the primordial Universe. Through high sensitivity searches for primordial gravitational waves, and tighter limits on the energy released in processes like phase transitions, the CMB polarization data of the next decade has the potential to transform our understanding of the laws of physics underlying the formation of the Universe.

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arXiv2019

Messengers from the Early Universe: Cosmic Neutrinos and Other Light Relics

The hot dense environment of the early universe is known to have produced large numbers of baryons, photons, and neutrinos. These extreme conditions may have also produced other long-lived species, including new light particles (such as axions or sterile neutrinos) or gravitational waves. The gravitational effects of any such light relics can be observed through their unique imprint in the cosmic microwave background (CMB), the large-scale structure, and the primordial light element abundances, and are important in determining the initial conditions of the universe. We argue that future cosmological observations, in particular improved maps of the CMB on small angular scales, can be orders of magnitude more sensitive for probing the thermal history of the early universe than current experiments. These observations offer a unique and broad discovery space for new physics in the dark sector and beyond, even when its effects would not be visible in terrestrial experiments or in astrophysical environments. A detection of an excess light relic abundance would be a clear indication of new physics and would provide the first direct information about the universe between the times of reheating and neutrino decoupling one second later.

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arXiv2019

PICO: Probe of Inflation and Cosmic Origins

The Probe of Inflation and Cosmic Origins (PICO) is an imaging polarimeter that will scan the sky for 5 years in 21 frequency bands spread between 21 and 799 GHz. It will produce full-sky surveys of intensity and polarization with a final combined-map noise level of 0.87 $μ$K arcmin for the required specifications, equivalent to 3300 Planck missions, and with our current best-estimate would have a noise level of 0.61 $μ$K arcmin (6400 Planck missions). PICO will either determine the energy scale of inflation by detecting the tensor to scalar ratio at a level $r=5\times 10^{-4}~(5σ)$, or will rule out with more than $5σ$ all inflation models for which the characteristic scale in the potential is the Planck scale. With LSST's data it could rule out all models of slow-roll inflation. PICO will detect the sum of neutrino masses at $>4σ$, constrain the effective number of light particle species with $ΔN_{\rm eff}<0.06~(2σ)$, and elucidate processes affecting the evolution of cosmic structures by measuring the optical depth to reionization with errors limited by cosmic variance and by constraining the evolution of the amplitude of linear fluctuations $σ_{8}(z)$ with sub-percent accuracy. Cross-correlating PICO's map of the thermal Sunyaev-Zeldovich effect with LSST's gold sample of galaxies will precisely trace the evolution of thermal pressure with $z$. PICO's maps of the Milky Way will be used to determine the make up of galactic dust and the role of magnetic fields in star formation efficiency. With 21 full sky legacy maps in intensity and polarization, which cannot be obtained in any other way, the mission will enrich many areas of astrophysics. PICO is the only single-platform instrument with the combination of sensitivity, angular resolution, frequency bands, and control of systematic effects that can deliver this compelling, timely, and broad science.

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arXiv2018

Towards Neutrino Mass from Cosmology without Optical Depth Information

With low redshift probes reaching unprecedented precision, uncertainty of the CMB optical depth is expected to be the limiting factor for future cosmological neutrino mass constraints. In this paper, we discuss to what extent combinations of CMB lensing and galaxy surveys measurements at low redshifts $z\sim 0.5-5$ will be able to make competitive neutrino mass measurements without relying on any optical depth constraints. We find that the combination of LSST galaxies and CMB-S4 lensing should be able to achieve constraints on the neutrino mass sum of 25meV without optical depth information, an independent measurement that is competitive with or slightly better than the constraint of 30meV possible with CMB-S4 and present-day optical depth measurements. These constraints originate both in structure growth probed by cross-correlation tomography over a wide redshift range as well as, most importantly, the shape of the galaxy power spectrum measured over a large volume. We caution that possible complications such as higher-order biasing and systematic errors in the analysis of high redshift galaxy clustering are only briefly discussed and may be non-negligible. Nevertheless, our results show that new kinds of high-precision neutrino mass measurements at and beyond the present-day optical depth limit may be possible.

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arXiv2018

PICO - the probe of inflation and cosmic origins

The Probe of Inflation and Cosmic Origins (PICO) is a NASA-funded study of a Probe-class mission concept. The top-level science objectives are to probe the physics of the Big Bang by measuring or constraining the energy scale of inflation, probe fundamental physics by measuring the number of light particles in the Universe and the sum of neutrino masses, to measure the reionization history of the Universe, and to understand the mechanisms driving the cosmic star formation history, and the physics of the galactic magnetic field. PICO would have multiple frequency bands between 21 and 799 GHz, and would survey the entire sky, producing maps of the polarization of the cosmic microwave background radiation, of galactic dust, of synchrotron radiation, and of various populations of point sources. Several instrument configurations, optical systems, cooling architectures, and detector and readout technologies have been and continue to be considered in the development of the mission concept. We will present a snapshot of the baseline mission concept currently under development.

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arXiv2018

Optical Design of PICO, a Concept for a Space Mission to Probe Inflation and Cosmic Origins

The Probe of Inflation and Cosmic Origins (PICO) is a probe-class mission concept currently under study by NASA. PICO will probe the physics of the Big Bang and the energy scale of inflation, constrain the sum of neutrino masses, measure the growth of structures in the universe, and constrain its reionization history by making full sky maps of the cosmic microwave background with sensitivity 80 times higher than the Planck space mission. With bands at 21-799 GHz and arcmin resolution at the highest frequencies, PICO will make polarization maps of Galactic synchrotron and dust emission to observe the role of magnetic fields in Milky Way's evolution and star formation. We discuss PICO's optical system, focal plane, and give current best case noise estimates. The optical design is a two-reflector optimized open-Dragone design with a cold aperture stop. It gives a diffraction limited field of view (DLFOV) with throughput of 910 square cm sr at 21 GHz. The large 82 square degree DLFOV hosts 12,996 transition edge sensor bolometers distributed in 21 frequency bands and maintained at 0.1 K. We use focal plane technologies that are currently implemented on operating CMB instruments including three-color multi-chroic pixels and multiplexed readouts. To our knowledge, this is the first use of an open-Dragone design for mm-wave astrophysical observations, and the only monolithic CMB instrument to have such a broad frequency coverage. With current best case estimate polarization depth of 0.65 microK(CMB}-arcmin over the entire sky, PICO is the most sensitive CMB instrument designed to date.

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arXiv2018

Searching for Signatures of Dark matter-Dark Radiation Interaction in Observations of Large-scale Structure

In this paper, we conduct a search in the latest large-scale structure measurements for signatures of the dark matter-dark radiation interaction proposed by Buen-Abad et al. (2015). We show that prior claims of a detection of this interaction rely on a use of the SZ cluster mass function that ignores uncertainty in the mass-observable relationship. Including this uncertainty we find that the inferred level of interaction remains consistent with the data, but so does zero interaction; i.e., there is no longer a detection. We also point out that inference of the shape and amplitude of the matter power spectrum from Ly$α$ forest measurements is highly inconsistent with the predictions of the $Λ$CDM model conditioned on Planck CMB temperature, polarization, and lensing power spectra, and that the dark matter-dark radiation model can restore that consistency. We also phenomenologically generalize the model of Buen-Abad et al. (2015) to allow for interaction rates with different scalings with temperature, and find that the original scaling is preferred by the data.

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arXiv2018

A tale of two modes: Neutrino free-streaming in the early universe

We present updated constraints on the free-streaming nature of cosmological neutrinos from cosmic microwave background (CMB) power spectra, baryonic acoustic oscillation data, and local measurements of the Hubble constant. Specifically, we consider a Fermi-like four-fermion interaction between massless neutrinos, characterized by an effective coupling constant $ G_{\rm eff}$, and resulting in a neutrino opacity $\dotτ_ν\propto G_{\rm eff}^2 T_ν^5$. Using a conservative prior on the parameter $\log_{10}\left(G_{\rm eff} {\rm MeV}^2\right)$, we find a bimodal posterior distribution. The first of these modes is consistent with the standard $Λ$CDM cosmology and corresponds to neutrinos decoupling at redshift $z_{ν,{\rm dec}} > 1.3\times10^5$. The other mode of the posterior, dubbed the "interacting neutrino mode", corresponds to neutrino decoupling occurring within a narrow redshift window centered around $z_{ν,{\rm dec}}\sim8300$. This mode is characterized by a high value of the effective neutrino coupling constant, together with a lower value of the scalar spectral index and amplitude of fluctuations, and a higher value of the Hubble parameter. Using both a maximum likelihood analysis and the ratio of the two mode's Bayesian evidence, we find the interacting neutrino mode to be statistically disfavored compared to the standard $Λ$CDM cosmology. Interestingly, the addition of CMB polarization and direct Hubble constant measurements significantly raises the statistical significance of this secondary mode, indicating that new physics in the neutrino sector could help explain the difference between local measurements of $H_0$, and those inferred from CMB data. A robust consequence of our results is that neutrinos must be free streaming long before the epoch of matter-radiation equality.

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arXiv2017

Approximate Likelihood Approaches for Detecting the Influence of Primordial Gravitational Waves in Cosmic Microwave Background Polarization

One of the major targets for next-generation cosmic microwave background (CMB) experiments is the detection of the primordial B-mode signal. Planning is under way for Stage-IV experiments that are projected to have instrumental noise small enough to make lensing and foregrounds the dominant source of uncertainty for estimating the tensor-to-scalar ratio $r$ from polarization maps. This makes delensing a crucial part of future CMB polarization science. In this paper we present a likelihood method for estimating the tensor-to-scalar ratio $r$ from CMB polarization observations, which combines the benefits of a full-scale likelihood approach with the tractability of the quadratic delensing technique. This method is a pixel space, all order likelihood analysis of the quadratic delensed B modes, and it essentially builds upon the quadratic delenser by taking into account all order lensing and pixel space anomalies. Its tractability relies on a crucial factorization of the pixel space covariance matrix of the polarization observations which allows one to compute the full Gaussian approximate likelihood profile, as a function of $r$, at the same computational cost of a single likelihood evaluation.

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arXiv2017

Insensitivity of The Distance Ladder Hubble Constant Determination to Cepheid Calibration Modeling Choices

Recent determination of the Hubble constant via Cepheid-calibrated supernovae by \citet{riess_2.4_2016} (R16) find $\sim 3σ$ tension with inferences based on cosmic microwave background temperature and polarization measurements from $Planck$. This tension could be an indication of inadequacies in the concordance $Λ$CDM model. Here we investigate the possibility that the discrepancy could instead be due to systematic bias or uncertainty in the Cepheid calibration step of the distance ladder measurement by R16. We consider variations in total-to-selective extinction of Cepheid flux as a function of line-of-sight, hidden structure in the period-luminosity relationship, and potentially different intrinsic color distributions of Cepheids as a function of host galaxy. Considering all potential sources of error, our final determination of $H_0 = 73.3 \pm 1.7~{\rm km/s/Mpc}$ (not including systematic errors from the treatment of geometric distances or Type Ia Supernovae) shows remarkable robustness and agreement with R16. We conclude systematics from the modeling of Cepheid photometry, including Cepheid selection criteria, cannot explain the observed tension between Cepheid-variable and CMB-based inferences of the Hubble constant. Considering a `model-independent' approach to relating Cepheids in galaxies with known distances to Cepheids in galaxies hosting a Type Ia supernova and finding agreement with the R16 result, we conclude no generalization of the model relating anchor and host Cepheid magnitude measurements can introduce significant bias in the $H_0$ inference.

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