arXiv subjects

Lluís Hernández-Navarro

Publications and source records attributed to Lluís Hernández-Navarro.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Slow spatial migration can help eradicate cooperative antimicrobial resistance in time-varying environments

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a global threat and combating its spread is of paramount importance. AMR often results from a cooperative behaviour with shared drug protection. Microbial communities generally evolve in volatile, spatially structured settings. Migration, space, fluctuations, and environmental variability all have a significant impact on the development and proliferation of AMR. While drug resistance is enhanced by migration in static conditions, this changes in time-fluctuating spatially structured environments. Here, we consider a two-dimensional metapopulation consisting of demes in which drug-resistant and sensitive cells evolve in a time-changing environment. This contains a toxin against which protection can be shared (cooperative AMR). Cells migrate between demes and connect them. When the environment and the deme composition vary on the same timescale, strong population bottlenecks cause fluctuation-driven extinction events, countered by migration. We investigate the influence of migration and environmental variability on the AMR eco-evolutionary dynamics by asking at what migration rate fluctuations can help clear resistance and what are the near-optimal environmental conditions ensuring the quasi-certain eradication of resistance in the shortest possible time. By combining analytical and computational tools, we answer these questions by determining when the resistant strain goes extinct across the entire metapopulation. While dispersal generally promotes strain coexistence, here we show that slow-but-nonzero migration can speed up and enhance resistance clearance, and determine the near-optimal conditions for this phenomenon. We discuss the impact of our findings on laboratory-controlled experiments and outline their generalisation to lattices of any spatial dimension.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2024

Eco-evolutionary dynamics of cooperative antimicrobial resistance in a population of fluctuating volume and size

Antimicrobial resistance to drugs (AMR), a global threat to human and animal health, is often regarded as resulting from cooperative behaviour. Moreover, microbes generally evolve in volatile environments that, together with demographic fluctuations (birth and death events), drastically alter population size and strain survival. Motivated by the need to better understand the evolution of AMR, we study a population of time-varying size consisting of two competing strains, one drug-resistant and one drug-sensitive, subject to demographic and environmental variability. This is modelled by a binary carrying capacity randomly switching between mild and harsh environmental conditions, and driving the fluctuating volume (total amount of nutrients and antimicrobials at fixed concentration), and thus the size of the community (number of resistant and sensitive cells). We assume that AMR is a shared public good when the concentration of resistant cells exceeds a fixed concentration cooperation threshold, above which the sensitive strain has a growth advantage, whereas resistant cells dominate below it. Using computational means, and devising an analytical treatment (built on suitable quenched and annealed averaging procedures), we fully characterise the influence of fluctuations on the eco-evolutionary dynamics of AMR, and notably obtain specific strain fixation and long-lasting coexistence probabilities as a function of the environmental variation rate and cooperation threshold. We find that microbial strains tend to coexistence, but demographic fluctuations eventually lead to the extinction of resistant or sensitive cells for small or large values of the concentration cooperation threshold, respectively. This also holds for dynamic environments, whose specific properties determine the extinction timescale.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2023

Coexistence of Competing Microbial Strains under Twofold Environmental Variability and Demographic Fluctuations

Microbial populations generally evolve in volatile environments, under conditions fluctuating between harsh and mild, e.g. as the result of sudden changes in toxin concentration or nutrient abundance. Environmental variability thus shapes the long-time population dynamics, notably by influencing the ability of different strains of microorganisms to coexist. Inspired by the evolution of antimicrobial resistance, we study the dynamics of a community consisting of two competing strains subject to twofold environmental variability. The level of toxin varies in time, favouring the growth of one strain under low drug concentration and the other strain when the toxin level is high. We also model time-changing resource abundance by a randomly switching carrying capacity that drives the fluctuating size of the community. While one strain dominates in a static environment, we show that species coexistence is possible in the presence of environmental variability. By computational and analytical means, we determine the environmental conditions under which long-lived coexistence is possible and when it is almost certain. Notably, we study the circumstances under which environmental and demographic fluctuations promote, or hinder, the strains coexistence. We also determine how the make-up of the coexistence phase and the average abundance of each strain depend on the environmental variability.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2023

Coupled environmental and demographic fluctuations shape the evolution of cooperative antimicrobial resistance

There is a pressing need to better understand how microbial populations respond to antimicrobial drugs, and to find mechanisms to possibly eradicate antimicrobial-resistant cells. The inactivation of antimicrobials by resistant microbes can often be viewed as a cooperative behavior leading to the coexistence of resistant and sensitive cells in large populations and static environments. This picture is however greatly altered by the fluctuations arising in volatile environments, in which microbial communities commonly evolve. Here, we study the eco-evolutionary dynamics of a population consisting of an antimicrobial resistant strain and microbes sensitive to antimicrobial drugs in a time-fluctuating environment, modeled by a carrying capacity randomly switching between states of abundance and scarcity. We assume that antimicrobial resistance is a shared public good when the number of resistant cells exceeds a certain threshold. Eco-evolutionary dynamics is thus characterised by demographic noise (birth and death events) coupled to environmental fluctuations which can cause population bottlenecks. By combining analytical and computational means, we determine the environmental conditions for the long-lived coexistence and fixation of both strains, and characterise a fluctuation-driven antimicrobial resistance eradication mechanism, where resistant microbes experience bottlenecks leading to extinction. We also discuss the possible applications of our findings to laboratory-controlled experiments.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2021

Exact edge landing probability for the bouncing coin toss and the three-sided die problem

Have you ever taken a disputed decision by tossing a coin and checking its landing side? This ancestral "heads or tails" practice is still widely used when facing undecided alternatives since it relies on the intuitive fairness of equiprobability. However, it critically disregards an interesting third outcome: the possibility of the coin coming at rest on its edge. Provided this evident yet elusive possibility, previous works have already focused on capturing all three landing probabilities of thick coins, but have only succeeded computationally as an exact and fully grounded analytical solution still evades the physics community. In this work we combine the classical equations of collisions with a statistical-mechanics approach to derive the exact analytical outcome probabilities of the partially inelastic coin toss. We validate the theoretical prediction by comparing it to previously reported simulations and experimental data; we discuss the moderate discrepancies arising at the highly inelastic regime; we describe the differences with previous, approximate models; and we finally propose the optimal geometry for the fair, cylindrical three-sided die based on the current results.

physics.class-ph↗