Searcharxiv⌕ Search

arXiv subjects

Longbing Cao

Publications and source records attributed to Longbing Cao.

At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources
arXiv2023

Frequency-domain MLPs are More Effective Learners in Time Series Forecasting

Time series forecasting has played the key role in different industrial, including finance, traffic, energy, and healthcare domains. While existing literatures have designed many sophisticated architectures based on RNNs, GNNs, or Transformers, another kind of approaches based on multi-layer perceptrons (MLPs) are proposed with simple structure, low complexity, and {superior performance}. However, most MLP-based forecasting methods suffer from the point-wise mappings and information bottleneck, which largely hinders the forecasting performance. To overcome this problem, we explore a novel direction of applying MLPs in the frequency domain for time series forecasting. We investigate the learned patterns of frequency-domain MLPs and discover their two inherent characteristic benefiting forecasting, (i) global view: frequency spectrum makes MLPs own a complete view for signals and learn global dependencies more easily, and (ii) energy compaction: frequency-domain MLPs concentrate on smaller key part of frequency components with compact signal energy. Then, we propose FreTS, a simple yet effective architecture built upon Frequency-domain MLPs for Time Series forecasting. FreTS mainly involves two stages, (i) Domain Conversion, that transforms time-domain signals into complex numbers of frequency domain; (ii) Frequency Learning, that performs our redesigned MLPs for the learning of real and imaginary part of frequency components. The above stages operated on both inter-series and intra-series scales further contribute to channel-wise and time-wise dependency learning. Extensive experiments on 13 real-world benchmarks (including 7 benchmarks for short-term forecasting and 6 benchmarks for long-term forecasting) demonstrate our consistent superiority over state-of-the-art methods.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2023

FourierGNN: Rethinking Multivariate Time Series Forecasting from a Pure Graph Perspective

Multivariate time series (MTS) forecasting has shown great importance in numerous industries. Current state-of-the-art graph neural network (GNN)-based forecasting methods usually require both graph networks (e.g., GCN) and temporal networks (e.g., LSTM) to capture inter-series (spatial) dynamics and intra-series (temporal) dependencies, respectively. However, the uncertain compatibility of the two networks puts an extra burden on handcrafted model designs. Moreover, the separate spatial and temporal modeling naturally violates the unified spatiotemporal inter-dependencies in real world, which largely hinders the forecasting performance. To overcome these problems, we explore an interesting direction of directly applying graph networks and rethink MTS forecasting from a pure graph perspective. We first define a novel data structure, hypervariate graph, which regards each series value (regardless of variates or timestamps) as a graph node, and represents sliding windows as space-time fully-connected graphs. This perspective considers spatiotemporal dynamics unitedly and reformulates classic MTS forecasting into the predictions on hypervariate graphs. Then, we propose a novel architecture Fourier Graph Neural Network (FourierGNN) by stacking our proposed Fourier Graph Operator (FGO) to perform matrix multiplications in Fourier space. FourierGNN accommodates adequate expressiveness and achieves much lower complexity, which can effectively and efficiently accomplish the forecasting. Besides, our theoretical analysis reveals FGO's equivalence to graph convolutions in the time domain, which further verifies the validity of FourierGNN. Extensive experiments on seven datasets have demonstrated our superior performance with higher efficiency and fewer parameters compared with state-of-the-art methods.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2023

Gray Learning from Non-IID Data with Out-of-distribution Samples

The integrity of training data, even when annotated by experts, is far from guaranteed, especially for non-IID datasets comprising both in- and out-of-distribution samples. In an ideal scenario, the majority of samples would be in-distribution, while samples that deviate semantically would be identified as out-of-distribution and excluded during the annotation process. However, experts may erroneously classify these out-of-distribution samples as in-distribution, assigning them labels that are inherently unreliable. This mixture of unreliable labels and varied data types makes the task of learning robust neural networks notably challenging. We observe that both in- and out-of-distribution samples can almost invariably be ruled out from belonging to certain classes, aside from those corresponding to unreliable ground-truth labels. This opens the possibility of utilizing reliable complementary labels that indicate the classes to which a sample does not belong. Guided by this insight, we introduce a novel approach, termed \textit{Gray Learning} (GL), which leverages both ground-truth and complementary labels. Crucially, GL adaptively adjusts the loss weights for these two label types based on prediction confidence levels. By grounding our approach in statistical learning theory, we derive bounds for the generalization error, demonstrating that GL achieves tight constraints even in non-IID settings. Extensive experimental evaluations reveal that our method significantly outperforms alternative approaches grounded in robust statistics.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2023

Learning Informative Representation for Fairness-aware Multivariate Time-series Forecasting: A Group-based Perspective

Performance unfairness among variables widely exists in multivariate time series (MTS) forecasting models since such models may attend/bias to certain (advantaged) variables. Addressing this unfairness problem is important for equally attending to all variables and avoiding vulnerable model biases/risks. However, fair MTS forecasting is challenging and has been less studied in the literature. To bridge such significant gap, we formulate the fairness modeling problem as learning informative representations attending to both advantaged and disadvantaged variables. Accordingly, we propose a novel framework, named FairFor, for fairness-aware MTS forecasting. FairFor is based on adversarial learning to generate both group-independent and group-relevant representations for the downstream forecasting. The framework first leverages a spectral relaxation of the K-means objective to infer variable correlations and thus to group variables. Then, it utilizes a filtering&fusion component to filter the group-relevant information and generate group-independent representations via orthogonality regularization. The group-independent and group-relevant representations form highly informative representations, facilitating to sharing knowledge from advantaged variables to disadvantaged variables to guarantee fairness. Extensive experiments on four public datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed FairFor for fair forecasting and significant performance improvement.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2023

Bayesian Personalized Federated Learning with Shared and Personalized Uncertainty Representations

Bayesian personalized federated learning (BPFL) addresses challenges in existing personalized FL (PFL). BPFL aims to quantify the uncertainty and heterogeneity within and across clients towards uncertainty representations by addressing the statistical heterogeneity of client data. In PFL, some recent preliminary work proposes to decompose hidden neural representations into shared and local components and demonstrates interesting results. However, most of them do not address client uncertainty and heterogeneity in FL systems, while appropriately decoupling neural representations is challenging and often ad hoc. In this paper, we make the first attempt to introduce a general BPFL framework to decompose and jointly learn shared and personalized uncertainty representations on statistically heterogeneous client data over time. A Bayesian federated neural network BPFed instantiates BPFL by jointly learning cross-client shared uncertainty and client-specific personalized uncertainty over statistically heterogeneous and randomly participating clients. We further involve continual updating of prior distribution in BPFed to speed up the convergence and avoid catastrophic forgetting. Theoretical analysis and guarantees are provided in addition to the experimental evaluation of BPFed against the diversified baselines.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2023

Supervision Adaptation Balancing In-distribution Generalization and Out-of-distribution Detection

The discrepancy between in-distribution (ID) and out-of-distribution (OOD) samples can lead to \textit{distributional vulnerability} in deep neural networks, which can subsequently lead to high-confidence predictions for OOD samples. This is mainly due to the absence of OOD samples during training, which fails to constrain the network properly. To tackle this issue, several state-of-the-art methods include adding extra OOD samples to training and assign them with manually-defined labels. However, this practice can introduce unreliable labeling, negatively affecting ID classification. The distributional vulnerability presents a critical challenge for non-IID deep learning, which aims for OOD-tolerant ID classification by balancing ID generalization and OOD detection. In this paper, we introduce a novel \textit{supervision adaptation} approach to generate adaptive supervision information for OOD samples, making them more compatible with ID samples. Firstly, we measure the dependency between ID samples and their labels using mutual information, revealing that the supervision information can be represented in terms of negative probabilities across all classes. Secondly, we investigate data correlations between ID and OOD samples by solving a series of binary regression problems, with the goal of refining the supervision information for more distinctly separable ID classes. Our extensive experiments on four advanced network architectures, two ID datasets, and eleven diversified OOD datasets demonstrate the efficacy of our supervision adaptation approach in improving both ID classification and OOD detection capabilities.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2023

R-divergence for Estimating Model-oriented Distribution Discrepancy

Real-life data are often non-IID due to complex distributions and interactions, and the sensitivity to the distribution of samples can differ among learning models. Accordingly, a key question for any supervised or unsupervised model is whether the probability distributions of two given datasets can be considered identical. To address this question, we introduce R-divergence, designed to assess model-oriented distribution discrepancies. The core insight is that two distributions are likely identical if their optimal hypothesis yields the same expected risk for each distribution. To estimate the distribution discrepancy between two datasets, R-divergence learns a minimum hypothesis on the mixed data and then gauges the empirical risk difference between them. We evaluate the test power across various unsupervised and supervised tasks and find that R-divergence achieves state-of-the-art performance. To demonstrate the practicality of R-divergence, we employ R-divergence to train robust neural networks on samples with noisy labels.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2023

C$^2$VAE: Gaussian Copula-based VAE Differing Disentangled from Coupled Representations with Contrastive Posterior

We present a self-supervised variational autoencoder (VAE) to jointly learn disentangled and dependent hidden factors and then enhance disentangled representation learning by a self-supervised classifier to eliminate coupled representations in a contrastive manner. To this end, a Contrastive Copula VAE (C$^2$VAE) is introduced without relying on prior knowledge about data in the probabilistic principle and involving strong modeling assumptions on the posterior in the neural architecture. C$^2$VAE simultaneously factorizes the posterior (evidence lower bound, ELBO) with total correlation (TC)-driven decomposition for learning factorized disentangled representations and extracts the dependencies between hidden features by a neural Gaussian copula for copula coupled representations. Then, a self-supervised contrastive classifier differentiates the disentangled representations from the coupled representations, where a contrastive loss regularizes this contrastive classification together with the TC loss for eliminating entangled factors and strengthening disentangled representations. C$^2$VAE demonstrates a strong effect in enhancing disentangled representation learning. C$^2$VAE further contributes to improved optimization addressing the TC-based VAE instability and the trade-off between reconstruction and representation.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2023

Revealing the Distributional Vulnerability of Discriminators by Implicit Generators

In deep neural learning, a discriminator trained on in-distribution (ID) samples may make high-confidence predictions on out-of-distribution (OOD) samples. This triggers a significant matter for robust, trustworthy and safe deep learning. The issue is primarily caused by the limited ID samples observable in training the discriminator when OOD samples are unavailable. We propose a general approach for \textit{fine-tuning discriminators by implicit generators} (FIG). FIG is grounded on information theory and applicable to standard discriminators without retraining. It improves the ability of a standard discriminator in distinguishing ID and OOD samples by generating and penalizing its specific OOD samples. According to the Shannon entropy, an energy-based implicit generator is inferred from a discriminator without extra training costs. Then, a Langevin dynamic sampler draws specific OOD samples for the implicit generator. Lastly, we design a regularizer fitting the design principle of the implicit generator to induce high entropy on those generated OOD samples. The experiments on different networks and datasets demonstrate that FIG achieves the state-of-the-art OOD detection performance.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2023

Out-of-distribution Detection by Cross-class Vicinity Distribution of In-distribution Data

Deep neural networks for image classification only learn to map in-distribution inputs to their corresponding ground truth labels in training without differentiating out-of-distribution samples from in-distribution ones. This results from the assumption that all samples are independent and identically distributed (IID) without distributional distinction. Therefore, a pretrained network learned from in-distribution samples treats out-of-distribution samples as in-distribution and makes high-confidence predictions on them in the test phase. To address this issue, we draw out-of-distribution samples from the vicinity distribution of training in-distribution samples for learning to reject the prediction on out-of-distribution inputs. A \textit{Cross-class Vicinity Distribution} is introduced by assuming that an out-of-distribution sample generated by mixing multiple in-distribution samples does not share the same classes of its constituents. We thus improve the discriminability of a pretrained network by finetuning it with out-of-distribution samples drawn from the cross-class vicinity distribution, where each out-of-distribution input corresponds to a complementary label. Experiments on various in-/out-of-distribution datasets show that the proposed method significantly outperforms the existing methods in improving the capacity of discriminating between in- and out-of-distribution samples.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2023

Dual Representation Learning for Out-of-Distribution Detection

To classify in-distribution samples, deep neural networks explore strongly label-related information and discard weakly label-related information according to the information bottleneck. Out-of-distribution samples drawn from distributions differing from that of in-distribution samples could be assigned with unexpected high-confidence predictions because they could obtain minimum strongly label-related information. To distinguish in- and out-of-distribution samples, Dual Representation Learning (DRL) makes out-of-distribution samples harder to have high-confidence predictions by exploring both strongly and weakly label-related information from in-distribution samples. For a pretrained network exploring strongly label-related information to learn label-discriminative representations, DRL trains its auxiliary network exploring the remaining weakly label-related information to learn distribution-discriminative representations. Specifically, for a label-discriminative representation, DRL constructs its complementary distribution-discriminative representation by integrating diverse representations less similar to the label-discriminative representation. Accordingly, DRL combines label- and distribution-discriminative representations to detect out-of-distribution samples. Experiments show that DRL outperforms the state-of-the-art methods for out-of-distribution detection.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2023

Copula Variational LSTM for High-dimensional Cross-market Multivariate Dependence Modeling

We address an important yet challenging problem - modeling high-dimensional dependencies across multivariates such as financial indicators in heterogeneous markets. In reality, a market couples and influences others over time, and the financial variables of a market are also coupled. We make the first attempt to integrate variational sequential neural learning with copula-based dependence modeling to characterize both temporal observable and latent variable-based dependence degrees and structures across non-normal multivariates. Our variational neural network WPVC-VLSTM models variational sequential dependence degrees and structures across multivariate time series by variational long short-term memory networks and regular vine copula. The regular vine copula models nonnormal and long-range distributional couplings across multiple dynamic variables. WPVC-VLSTM is verified in terms of both technical significance and portfolio forecasting performance. It outperforms benchmarks including linear models, stochastic volatility models, deep neural networks, and variational recurrent networks in cross-market portfolio forecasting.

q-fin.ST↗
arXiv2023

Bayesian Federated Learning: A Survey

Federated learning (FL) demonstrates its advantages in integrating distributed infrastructure, communication, computing and learning in a privacy-preserving manner. However, the robustness and capabilities of existing FL methods are challenged by limited and dynamic data and conditions, complexities including heterogeneities and uncertainties, and analytical explainability. Bayesian federated learning (BFL) has emerged as a promising approach to address these issues. This survey presents a critical overview of BFL, including its basic concepts, its relations to Bayesian learning in the context of FL, and a taxonomy of BFL from both Bayesian and federated perspectives. We categorize and discuss client- and server-side and FL-based BFL methods and their pros and cons. The limitations of the existing BFL methods and the future directions of BFL research further address the intricate requirements of real-life FL applications.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2023

ClinicLens: Visual Analytics for Exploring and Optimizing the Testing Capacity of Clinics given Uncertainty

Clinic testing plays a critical role in containing infectious diseases such as COVID-19. However, one of the key research questions in fighting such pandemics is how to optimize testing capacities across clinics. In particular, domain experts expect to know exactly how to adjust the features that may affect testing capacities, given that dynamics and uncertainty make this a highly challenging problem. Hence, as a tool to support both policymakers and clinicians, we collaborated with domain experts to build ClinicLens, an interactive visual analytics system for exploring and optimizing the testing capacities of clinics. ClinicLens houses a range of features based on an aggregated set of COVID-19 data. It comprises Back-end Engine and Front-end Visualization that take users through an iterative exploration chain of extracting, training, and predicting testing-sensitive features and visual representations. It also combines AI4VIS and visual analytics to demonstrate how a clinic might optimize its testing capacity given the impacts of a range of features. Three qualitative case studies along with feedback from subject-matter experts validate that ClinicLens is both a useful and effective tool for exploring the trends in COVID-19 and optimizing clinic testing capacities across regions. The entire approach has been open-sourced online: https://github.com/YuDong5018/clinic-lens.

cs.HC↗
arXiv2023

eVAE: Evolutionary Variational Autoencoder

The surrogate loss of variational autoencoders (VAEs) poses various challenges to their training, inducing the imbalance between task fitting and representation inference. To avert this, the existing strategies for VAEs focus on adjusting the tradeoff by introducing hyperparameters, deriving a tighter bound under some mild assumptions, or decomposing the loss components per certain neural settings. VAEs still suffer from uncertain tradeoff learning.We propose a novel evolutionary variational autoencoder (eVAE) building on the variational information bottleneck (VIB) theory and integrative evolutionary neural learning. eVAE integrates a variational genetic algorithm into VAE with variational evolutionary operators including variational mutation, crossover, and evolution. Its inner-outer-joint training mechanism synergistically and dynamically generates and updates the uncertain tradeoff learning in the evidence lower bound (ELBO) without additional constraints. Apart from learning a lossy compression and representation of data under the VIB assumption, eVAE presents an evolutionary paradigm to tune critical factors of VAEs and deep neural networks and addresses the premature convergence and random search problem by integrating evolutionary optimization into deep learning. Experiments show that eVAE addresses the KL-vanishing problem for text generation with low reconstruction loss, generates all disentangled factors with sharp images, and improves the image generation quality,respectively. eVAE achieves better reconstruction loss, disentanglement, and generation-inference balance than its competitors.

cs.NE↗
arXiv2022

Tri-Attention: Explicit Context-Aware Attention Mechanism for Natural Language Processing

In natural language processing (NLP), the context of a word or sentence plays an essential role. Contextual information such as the semantic representation of a passage or historical dialogue forms an essential part of a conversation and a precise understanding of the present phrase or sentence. However, the standard attention mechanisms typically generate weights using query and key but ignore context, forming a Bi-Attention framework, despite their great success in modeling sequence alignment. This Bi-Attention mechanism does not explicitly model the interactions between the contexts, queries and keys of target sequences, missing important contextual information and resulting in poor attention performance. Accordingly, a novel and general triple-attention (Tri-Attention) framework expands the standard Bi-Attention mechanism and explicitly interacts query, key, and context by incorporating context as the third dimension in calculating relevance scores. Four variants of Tri-Attention are generated by expanding the two-dimensional vector-based additive, dot-product, scaled dot-product, and bilinear operations in Bi-Attention to the tensor operations for Tri-Attention. Extensive experiments on three NLP tasks demonstrate that Tri-Attention outperforms about 30 state-of-the-art non-attention, standard Bi-Attention, contextual Bi-Attention approaches and pretrained neural language models1.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2022

Supervised Deep Hashing for High-dimensional and Heterogeneous Case-based Reasoning

Case-based Reasoning (CBR) on high-dimensional and heterogeneous data is a trending yet challenging and computationally expensive task in the real world. A promising approach is to obtain low-dimensional hash codes representing cases and perform a similarity retrieval of cases in Hamming space. However, previous methods based on data-independent hashing rely on random projections or manual construction, inapplicable to address specific data issues (e.g., high-dimensionality and heterogeneity) due to their insensitivity to data characteristics. To address these issues, this work introduces a novel deep hashing network to learn similarity-preserving compact hash codes for efficient case retrieval and proposes a deep-hashing-enabled CBR model HeCBR. Specifically, we introduce position embedding to represent heterogeneous features and utilize a multilinear interaction layer to obtain case embeddings, which effectively filtrates zero-valued features to tackle high-dimensionality and sparsity and captures inter-feature couplings. Then, we feed the case embeddings into fully-connected layers, and subsequently a hash layer generates hash codes with a quantization regularizer to control the quantization loss during relaxation. To cater to incremental learning of CBR, we further propose an adaptive learning strategy to update the hash function. Extensive experiments on public datasets show that HeCBR greatly reduces storage and significantly accelerates case retrieval. HeCBR achieves desirable performance compared with the state-of-the-art CBR methods and performs significantly better than hashing-based CBR methods in classification.

cs.IR↗
arXiv2022

Modeling time evolving COVID-19 uncertainties with density dependent asymptomatic infections and social reinforcement

The COVID-19 pandemic has posed significant challenges in modeling its complex epidemic transmissions, infection and contagion, which are very different from known epidemics. The challenges in quantifying COVID-19 complexities include effectively modeling its process and data uncertainties. The uncertainties are embedded in implicit and high-proportional undocumented infections, asymptomatic contagion, social reinforcement of infections, and various quality issues in the reported data. These uncertainties become even more apparent in the first two months of the COVID-19 pandemic, when the relevant knowledge, case reporting and testing were all limited. Here we introduce a novel hybrid approach Susceptible-Undocumented infected-Documented infected-Recovered (SUDR) model. First, SUDR (1) characterizes and distinguishes Undocumented (U) and Documented (D) infections commonly seen during COVID-19 incubation periods and asymptomatic infections. Second, SUDR characterizes the probabilistic density of infections by capturing exogenous processes. Lastly, SUDR approximates the density likelihood of COVID-19 prevalence over time by incorporating Bayesian inference into SUDR. Different from existing COVID-19 models, SUDR characterizes the undocumented infections during unknown transmission processes. To capture the uncertainties of temporal transmission and social reinforcement during COVID-19 contagion, the transmission rate is modeled by a time-varying density function of undocumented infectious cases. By sampling from the mean-field posterior distribution with reasonable priors, SUDR handles the randomness, noise and sparsity of COVID-19 observations widely seen in the public COVID-19 case data. The results demonstrate a deeper quantitative understanding of the above uncertainties, in comparison with classic SIR, time-dependent SIR, and probabilistic SIR models.

stat.ML↗