arXiv subjects

Lorenzo Dall'Amico

Publications and source records attributed to Lorenzo Dall'Amico.

16 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

A temporal graph dissimilarity measure capturing epidemic spreading behavior

Comparing temporal networks is a challenging problem in network analysis. Commonly adopted methods compare structural properties of temporal graphs and can be highly sensitive to the pre-selected features. However, temporal networks are the support of dynamical processes, and a process may take place in statistically indistinguishable ways on structurally different temporal graphs. In particular, a dissimilarity measure that compares temporal graphs based on how spreading processes unfold on them is highly desirable. In this work, we first define the Time-Shift DTW, a dissimilarity between epidemic curves that accounts for both differences in their shape and temporal shifts. We then introduce Epidemic-Aware Temporal Graph Dissimilarity (EATGD), a deterministic and differentiable dissimilarity between temporal graphs that combines an embedding-based temporal graph distance with a set of topological and temporal features. Its parameters are calibrated using stochastic SIR simulations to maximize the correlation with the Time-Shift DTW, after which graph comparisons require no further epidemic simulations. Using empirical human proximity networks from the SocioPatterns collaboration and synthetic temporal graphs, we show that EATGD captures epidemic-based graph dissimilarity and generalizes across heterogeneous network settings. Its differentiability and computational efficiency make EATGD suitable for integration into machine-learning pipelines and provide a potential loss function for training generative models to reproduce epidemic dynamics without requiring an exact reconstruction of fine-grained network structure.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2026

Modeling memory in time-respecting paths on temporal networks

Human close-range proximity interactions are the key determinant for spreading processes like knowledge diffusion, norm adoption, and infectious disease transmission. These dynamical processes can be modeled with time-respecting paths on temporal networks. Here, we propose a framework to quantify memory in time-respecting paths and evaluate it on several empirical datasets encoding proximity between humans collected in different settings. Our results show strong memory effects, robust across settings, model parameters, and statistically significant when compared to memoryless null models. We further propose a generative model to create synthetic temporal graphs with memory and use it to show that memory in time-respecting paths decreases the diffusion speed, affecting the dynamics of spreading processes on temporal networks.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2026

Relationship between household attributes and contact patterns in urban and rural South Africa

Households play a crucial role in the propagation of infectious diseases due to the frequent and prolonged interactions that typically occur between their members. Recent studies have emphasized the need to include socioeconomic variables in epidemic models to account for the heterogeneity induced by human behavior. While sub-Saharan Africa suffers the highest burden of infectious disease diffusion, few studies have investigated the mixing patterns in the countries and their relation with social indicators. This work analyzes household contact matrices measured with wearable proximity sensors in a rural and an urban village in South Africa. Leveraging a rich data collection describing additional individual and household attributes, we investigate how the household contact matrix varies according to the household type (whether it is composed only of a familiar nucleus or by a larger group), the gender of its head (the primary decision-maker), the rural or urban context, and the season in which it was measured. We show the household type and the gender of its head induce differences in the interaction patterns between household members, particularly regarding child caregiving, suggesting they are relevant attributes to include in epidemic modeling.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2025

Learning distributed representations with efficient SoftMax normalization

Learning distributed representations, or embeddings, that encode the relational similarity patterns among objects is a relevant task in machine learning. A popular method to learn the embedding matrices $X, Y$ is optimizing a loss function of the term ${\rm SoftMax}(XY^T)$. The complexity required to calculate this term, however, runs quadratically with the problem size, making it a computationally heavy solution. In this article, we propose a linear-time heuristic approximation to compute the normalization constants of ${\rm SoftMax}(XY^T)$ for embedding vectors with bounded norms. We show on some pre-trained embedding datasets that the proposed estimation method achieves higher or comparable accuracy with competing methods. From this result, we design an efficient and task-agnostic algorithm that learns the embeddings by optimizing the cross entropy between the softmax and a set of probability distributions given as inputs. The proposed algorithm is interpretable and easily adapted to arbitrary embedding problems. We consider a few use cases and observe similar or higher performances and a lower computational time than similar ``2Vec'' algorithms.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Comparing temporal and aggregated network descriptions of fluid transport in the Mediterranean Sea

Ocean currents exhibit strong time dependence at all scales that influences physical and biochemical dynamics. Network approaches to fluid transport permit to address explicitly how connectivity across the seascape is affected by the spatiotemporal variability of currents. However, such temporal aspect is mostly neglected, relying on a static representation of the flow. We here investigate the role of current variability on networks describing physical transport across the Mediterranean basin. We first focus on degree distributions and community structure comparing ensembles of temporal networks that explicitly resolve time dependence and their aggregated, i.e. time-averaged, counterparts. Furthermore, we explore the implications of the two approaches in a simple reaction dispersal model for a generic tracer. Our analysis evidences that aggregation induces structural network changes that cannot be easily avoided, not even introducing a pruning of the aggregated adjacency matrix. We also highlight that, depending on the time scales considered, the importance of the temporal features of the networks can vary significantly. Finally, we find that the tracer evolution obtained from a temporal dispersal kernel cannot be always approximated by aggregated adjacency matrices, in particular during transients of the dynamics.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2024

An embedding-based distance for temporal graphs

Temporal graphs are commonly used to represent time-resolved relations between entities in many natural and artificial systems. Many techniques were devised to investigate the evolution of temporal graphs by comparing their state at different time points. However, quantifying the similarity between temporal graphs as a whole is an open problem. Here, we use embeddings based on time-respecting random walks to introduce a new notion of distance between temporal graphs. This distance is well-defined for pairs of temporal graphs with different numbers of nodes and different time spans. We study the case of a matched pair of graphs, when a known relation exists between their nodes, and the case of unmatched graphs, when such a relation is unavailable and the graphs may be of different sizes. We use empirical and synthetic temporal network data to show that the distance we introduce discriminates graphs with different topological and temporal properties. We provide an efficient implementation of the distance computation suitable for large-scale temporal graphs.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2024

Resilience of mobility network to dynamic population response across COVID-19 interventions: evidences from Chile

The COVID19 pandemic highlighted the importance of non-traditional data sources, such as mobile phone data, to inform effective public health interventions and monitor adherence to such measures. Previous studies showed how socioeconomic characteristics shaped population response during restrictions and how repeated interventions eroded adherence over time. Less is known about how different population strata changed their response to repeated interventions and how this impacted the resulting mobility network. We study population response during the first and second infection waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in Chile and Spain. Via spatial lag and regression models, we investigate the adherence to mobility interventions at the municipality level in Chile, highlighting the significant role of wealth, labor structure, COVID-19 incidence, and network metrics characterizing business-as-usual municipality connectivity in shaping mobility changes during the two waves. We assess network structural similarities in the two periods by defining mobility hotspots and traveling probabilities in the two countries. As a proof of concept, we simulate and compare outcomes of an epidemic diffusion occurring in the two waves. Our analysis reveals the resilience of the mobility network across waves. We test the robustness of our findings recovering similar results for Spain. Finally, epidemic modeling suggests that historical mobility data from past waves can be leveraged to inform future disease spatial invasion models in repeated interventions. This study highlights the value of historical mobile phone data for building pandemic preparedness and lessens the need for real-time data streams for risk assessment and outbreak response. Our work provides valuable insights into the complex interplay of factors driving mobility across repeated interventions, aiding in developing targeted mitigation strategies.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2024

Political Context of the European Vaccine Debate on Twitter

At the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, fears grew that making vaccination a political (instead of public health) issue may impact the efficacy of this life-saving intervention, spurring the spread of vaccine-hesitant content. In this study, we examine whether there is a relationship between the political interest of social media users and their exposure to vaccine-hesitant content on Twitter. We focus on 17 European countries using a multilingual, longitudinal dataset of tweets spanning the period before COVID, up to the vaccine roll-out. We find that, in most countries, users' endorsement of vaccine-hesitant content is the highest in the early months of the pandemic, around the time of greatest scientific uncertainty. Further, users who follow politicians from right-wing parties, and those associated with authoritarian or anti-EU stances are more likely to endorse vaccine-hesitant content, whereas those following left-wing politicians, more pro-EU or liberal parties, are less likely. Somewhat surprisingly, politicians did not play an outsized role in the vaccine debates of their countries, receiving a similar number of retweets as other similarly popular users. This systematic, multi-country, longitudinal investigation of the connection of politics with vaccine hesitancy has important implications for public health policy and communication.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2023

Estimating household contact matrices structure from easily collectable metadata

Contact matrices are a commonly adopted data representation, used to develop compartmental models for epidemic spreading, accounting for the contact heterogeneities across age groups. Their estimation, however, is generally time and effort consuming and model-driven strategies to quantify the contacts are often needed. In this article we focus on household contact matrices, describing the contacts among the members of a family and develop a parametric model to describe them. This model combines demographic and easily quantifiable survey-based data and is tested on high resolution proximity data collected in two sites in South Africa. Given its simplicity and interpretability, we expect our method to be easily applied to other contexts as well and we identify relevant questions that need to be addressed during the data collection procedure.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2023

Generalized contact matrices for epidemic modeling

Contact matrices have become a key ingredient of modern epidemic models. They account for the stratification of contacts for the age of individuals and, in some cases, the context of their interactions. However, age and context are not the only factors shaping contact structures and affecting the spreading of infectious diseases. Socio-economic status (SES) variables such as wealth, ethnicity, and education play a major role as well. Here, we introduce generalized contact matrices capable of stratifying contacts across any number of dimensions including any SES variable. We derive an analytical expression for the basic reproductive number of an infectious disease unfolding on a population characterized by such generalized contact matrices. Our results, on both synthetic and real data, show that disregarding higher levels of stratification might lead to the under-estimation of the reproductive number and to a mis-estimation of the global epidemic dynamics. Furthermore, including generalized contact matrices allows for more expressive epidemic models able to capture heterogeneities in behaviours such as different levels of adoption of non-pharmaceutical interventions across different groups. Overall, our work contributes to the literature attempting to bring socio-economic, as well as other dimensions, to the forefront of epidemic modeling. Tackling this issue is crucial for developing more precise descriptions of epidemics, and thus to design better strategies to contain them.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2021

A unified framework for spectral clustering in sparse graphs

This article considers spectral community detection in the regime of sparse networks with heterogeneous degree distributions, for which we devise an algorithm to efficiently retrieve communities. Specifically, we demonstrate that a conveniently parametrized form of regularized Laplacian matrix can be used to perform spectral clustering in sparse networks, without suffering from its degree heterogeneity. Besides, we exhibit important connections between this proposed matrix and the now popular non-backtracking matrix, the Bethe-Hessian matrix, as well as the standard Laplacian matrix. Interestingly, as opposed to competitive methods, our proposed improved parametrization inherently accounts for the hardness of the classification problem. These findings are summarized under the form of an algorithm capable of both estimating the number of communities and achieving high-quality community reconstruction.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2021

Nishimori meets Bethe: a spectral method for node classification in sparse weighted graphs

This article unveils a new relation between the Nishimori temperature parametrizing a distribution P and the Bethe free energy on random Erdos-Renyi graphs with edge weights distributed according to P. Estimating the Nishimori temperature being a task of major importance in Bayesian inference problems, as a practical corollary of this new relation, a numerical method is proposed to accurately estimate the Nishimori temperature from the eigenvalues of the Bethe Hessian matrix of the weighted graph. The algorithm, in turn, is used to propose a new spectral method for node classification in weighted (possibly sparse) graphs. The superiority of the method over competing state-of-the-art approaches is demonstrated both through theoretical arguments and real-world data experiments.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2020

Community detection in sparse time-evolving graphs with a dynamical Bethe-Hessian

This article considers the problem of community detection in sparse dynamical graphs in which the community structure evolves over time. A fast spectral algorithm based on an extension of the Bethe-Hessian matrix is proposed, which benefits from the positive correlation in the class labels and in their temporal evolution and is designed to be applicable to any dynamical graph with a community structure. Under the dynamical degree-corrected stochastic block model, in the case of two classes of equal size, we demonstrate and support with extensive simulations that our proposed algorithm is capable of making non-trivial community reconstruction as soon as theoretically possible, thereby reaching the optimal detectability threshold and provably outperforming competing spectral methods.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2020

Optimal Laplacian regularization for sparse spectral community detection

Regularization of the classical Laplacian matrices was empirically shown to improve spectral clustering in sparse networks. It was observed that small regularizations are preferable, but this point was left as a heuristic argument. In this paper we formally determine a proper regularization which is intimately related to alternative state-of-the-art spectral techniques for sparse graphs.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2019

Revisiting the Bethe-Hessian: Improved Community Detection in Sparse Heterogeneous Graphs

Spectral clustering is one of the most popular, yet still incompletely understood, methods for community detection on graphs. This article studies spectral clustering based on the Bethe-Hessian matrix $H_r = (r^2-1)I_n + D-rA$ for sparse heterogeneous graphs (following the degree-corrected stochastic block model) in a two-class setting. For a specific value $r = ζ$, clustering is shown to be insensitive to the degree heterogeneity. We then study the behavior of the informative eigenvector of $H_ζ$ and, as a result, predict the clustering accuracy. The article concludes with an overview of the generalization to more than two classes along with extensive simulations on synthetic and real networks corroborating our findings.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2018

How does latent liquidity get revealed in the limit order book?

Latent order book models have allowed for significant progress in our understanding of price formation in financial markets. In particular they are able to reproduce a number of stylized facts, such as the square-root impact law. An important question that is raised -- if one is to bring such models closer to real market data -- is that of the connection between the latent (unobservable) order book and the real (observable) order book. Here we suggest a simple, consistent mechanism for the revelation of latent liquidity that allows for quantitative estimation of the latent order book from real market data. We successfully confront our results to real order book data for over a hundred assets and discuss market stability. One of our key theoretical results is the existence of a market instability threshold, where the conversion of latent order becomes too slow, inducing liquidity crises. Finally we compute the price impact of a metaorder in different parameter regimes.

q-fin.TR↗