arXiv subjects

Lu Lin

Publications and source records attributed to Lu Lin.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

The Illusion of Reasoning: Exposing Evasive Data Contamination in LLMs via Zero-CoT Truncation

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive reasoning abilities across a wide range of tasks, but data contamination undermines the objective evaluation of these capabilities. This problem is further exacerbated by malicious model publishers who use evasive, or indirect, contamination strategies, such as paraphrasing benchmark data to evade existing detection methods and artificially boost leaderboard performance. Current approaches struggle to reliably detect such stealthy contamination. In this work, we uncover a critical phenomenon: a model's generated reasoning steps actively mask its underlying memorization. Inspired by this, we propose the Zero-CoT Probe (ZCP), a novel black-box detection method that deliberately truncates the entire Chain-of-Thought (CoT) process to expose latent shortcut mappings. To further isolate memorization from the model's intrinsic problem-solving capabilities, ZCP compares the model's zero-CoT performance on the original benchmark against an isomorphically perturbed reference dataset. Furthermore, we introduce Contamination Confidence, a metric that quantifies both the likelihood and severity of contamination, moving beyond simple binary classifications. Extensive experiments on both previously identified contaminated models and specially fine-tuned contaminated models demonstrate that ZCP robustly detects both direct and evasive data contamination. The code for ZCP is accessible at https://github.com/Yifan-Lan/zero-cot-probe.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Label Ensemble Perspective for Reduced-Complexity Graph Node Classification under Label Noise

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have been widely employed for semi-supervised node classification tasks on graphs. However, the performance of GNNs is significantly affected by \emph{label noise}, that is, a small amount of incorrectly labeled nodes can substantially misguide model training. Mainstream solutions define node classification with label noise (NCLN) as a reliable labeling task, often introducing node similarity with quadratic computational complexity to more accurately assess label reliability. To this end, in this paper, we introduce the Label Ensemble Graph Neural Network (LEGNN), a lower complexity method for robust GNNs training against label noise. LEGNN reframes NCLN as a label ensemble task, gathering informative multiple labels instead of constructing a single reliable label, avoiding high-complexity computations for reliability assessment. Specifically, LEGNN conducts a two-step process: bootstrapping neighboring contexts and robust learning with gathered multiple labels. In the former step, we apply random neighbor masks for each node and gather the predicted labels as a high-probability label set. This mitigates the impact of inaccurately labeled neighbors and diversifies the label set. In the latter step, we utilize a partial label learning based strategy to aggregate the high-probability label information for model training. Additionally, we symmetrically gather a low-probability label set to counteract potential noise from the high-probability label set. Extensive experiments on six datasets demonstrate that LEGNN achieves strong classification performance while maintaining computational efficiency. Moreover, it exhibits good scalability on datasets with over one hundred thousand nodes and one million edges.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

DecisionRobust: Benchmarking Robustness for JEV Style Decision Models Across Text and Vision

Emerging decision models such as JEV provide typed interfaces that map task instructions and observations directly to choices, judgments, and scores. As these models are increasingly used for automated decision-making, understanding their reliability under adversarial manipulation becomes critical. We introduce DecisionRobust, a benchmark for systematically evaluating the robustness of decision models across textual and visual inputs. Our benchmark covers practical decision-making scenarios and a diverse suite of attacks, including semantics-preserving text perturbations, image perturbations, and prompt injection in both modalities. We curate evaluation sets through external validity checks and cross-model candidate selection. We evaluate 30 model configurations on text tasks and 17 on vision tasks, including 24 and 12 held-out models, respectively, that are excluded from candidate selection. Our experiments reveal several key findings. First, attacks expose vulnerabilities beyond the models used for construction and selection, although optimized image perturbations transfer weakly to many targets even with multiple surrogates. Second, relative model robustness varies across tasks and attack types, and resistance to input perturbations does not necessarily imply resistance to prompt injection. Third, label-consistency checks substantially reduce measured attack success across text and image settings, highlighting the importance of validating apparent failures. The benchmark is available at https://yifan-lan.github.io/DecisionRobust/.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

Critic Experience Bank: Self-Evolving Step-Level Confidence Estimation for LLM Agents

LLM agents operate in stateful environments, where a single erroneous step can waste limited interaction budget or cause irreversible effects before task failure becomes apparent. Reliable deployment therefore requires step-level confidence estimation: estimating, before execution, the probability that a proposed action will advance the task. Existing LLM confidence estimators are typically designed for static question answering under a fixed task context and evaluation criterion. For an agent, however, its action productivity depends on an environment transition that is observed only after execution. To address this challenge, we introduce Critic Experience Bank (CEB), a training-free framework that turns feedback from completed trajectories into reusable evidence for future confidence judgments. After each trajectory, an LLM assigns hindsight productivity pseudo-labels to individual actions and stores them with the critic's original pre-execution confidence, task context, action, and observed feedback. For a new action, by retrieving related productive and unproductive experiences, CEB grounds pre-execution confidence in feedback from completed trajectories to condition a fixed LLM critic. CEB thereby adapts over a task stream without parameter updates or ground-truth step labels at deployment. Across four agent benchmarks spanning offline and live web navigation, mobile GUI and shell tasks, and three critic backbones, CEB achieves the best or tied-best ECE, Brier score, and AUC in all twelve benchmark-backbone settings under rule-based step labels, reducing ECE by up to 53.8% relative to the strongest training-free baseline. Its confidence scores also improve downstream utility in selective execution and simulated task success.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

ReLope: From Hidden-State Probing to a Decision Module for Multimodal LLM Routing

Routing balances performance and cost in hybrid systems by escalating selected queries from a lightweight model to a powerful but expensive one. Hidden-state probes provide an effective routing signal by predicting the small model's correctness from hidden states it already computes. Although effective in text-only settings, their behavior on multimodal LLMs (MLLMs) is less understood. We find that correctness is harder to predict from hidden states when questions are paired with images rather than with captions of those images. Two training-free dependence measures, HSIC and label CKA, show the same pattern. We first investigate whether changing hidden states used by the probe improves correctness prediction for MLLMs. We propose Attention Probe, which learns an attention query to pool frozen token states into a routing feature and improves over the standard probe. However, pooling only recombines hidden states computed for answer generation, not for deciding whether the answer should be trusted. We therefore build a decision layer inside the existing MLLM and train it for the routing decision. The resulting router, ReLope (KL-Regularized LoRA Probe), adapts a separate copy of one MLLM layer with LoRA and regularizes it with a KL-penalized stochastic bottleneck. This decision branch shares the frozen lower layers and leaves the model's answer-generation path unchanged. ReLope attains the highest correctness prediction AUC on all five benchmarks and three backbones we evaluate and improves the accuracy versus cost trade-off at negligible overhead. These results suggest a new perspective and a practical technical path on routing: rather than reading decisions off states built for generation, routing decisions can be learned by a dedicated decision layer inside the model. Code: https://github.com/Spinozaaa/ReLope

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Medical AI Encodes a "Feeling of Error": Verifying Cancer Segmentation via Internal Concepts

Cancer segmentation models can fail silently, generating plausible but incorrect masks that risk missed findings or unnecessary biopsies. A critical question arises: Do AI models "know" when they are wrong, and if so, can we use the signal to predict their own failures? Humans do have a "Feeling of Error" (FOE): a spontaneous sense of unease that flags a potential error during thinking. We investigate whether cancer segmentation models exhibit an analogous internal signal. Unlike output-level cues (e.g., prediction confidence or uncertainty), which offer no insight into why a failure occurs and suffer from a sensitivity-quality tradeoff where high detection sensitivity could degrade overall segmentation quality. We instead propose to capture the model's FOE from its inner workings. Using mechanistic interpretability tools, specifically Sparse Autoencoders, we decompose internal neural activations into a dictionary of human-interpretable concepts and show that failure cases exhibit a distinct latent signature: fewer active concepts with lower activation magnitudes compared to successful segmentation. By training a classifier on these concept activations, we achieve accurate failure detection along with explanations for the model's mistakes. Experiments on prostate, pancreatic, and brain cancer segmentation demonstrate that our approach outperforms output-based methods in failure detection while preserving segmentation quality.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2026

From Narrative to Auditable Forecasts: A Structured Scaffold for Agentic Forecasting

LLM agents are increasingly used for live forecasting, where they retrieve up-to-date information and produce estimates for unresolved future events. However, current agentic forecasting often relies on implicit narrative aggregation: agents collect evidence, discuss it in prose, and often assign a probability without an explicit update path from evidence to forecast. This limits both forecasting accuracy and auditability. We propose AuditForecast, an agentic scaffold for structured probabilistic forecasting. AuditForecast first anchors the forecast with a suitable quantitative baseline model, uses model-guided data retrieval to derive a base probability, and then applies situational factor updates outside the model's scope through mechanical aggregation in odds space. This turns forecasting from a prose-based judgment into a structured process with explicit intermediate objects. Across multiple live forecasting benchmarks, AuditForecast improves forecasting accuracy and calibration relative to strong agentic baselines, surpasses market-implied references in several settings, and outperforms substantially more expensive deep-research agents while remaining Pareto-dominant in the cost--accuracy tradeoff. Beyond performance gains, AuditForecast produces an auditable forecasting report that makes forecast construction explicit and supports systematic post hoc analysis.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

CARV: A Diagnostic Benchmark for Compositional Analogical Reasoning in Multimodal LLMs

Analogical reasoning tests a fundamental aspect of human cognition: mapping the relation from one pair of objects to another. Existing evaluations of this ability in multimodal large language models (MLLMs) overlook the ability to compose rules from multiple sources, a critical component of higher-order intelligence. To close this gap, we introduce CARV (Compositional Analogical Reasoning in Vision), a novel task together with a 5,500-sample dataset as the first diagnostic benchmark. We extend the analogy from a single pair to multiple pairs, which requires MLLMs to extract symbolic rules from each pair and compose new transformations. Evaluation on the state-of-the-art MLLMs reveals a striking performance gap: even Gemini-2.5 Pro achieving only 40.4% accuracy, far below human-level performance of 100%. Diagnostic analysis shows two consistent failure modes: (1) decomposing visual changes into symbolic rules, and (2) maintaining robustness under diverse or complex settings, highlighting the limitations of current MLLMs on this task.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

FairCoder: Probing LLM Bias in High-Stakes Decision Making via Coding Tasks

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used in high-stakes decisions such as hiring and college admissions, making their social bias a critical concern. While LLMs are trained to refuse explicitly biased requests, bias can be leaked implicitly during LLM planning and reasoning process. As code becomes the primary medium for LLM internal logic-writing, we introduce FairCoder, a benchmark that frames decision-making as coding tasks to systematically probe LLM bias across employment, education, and healthcare domains, covering multiple fairness definitions. Considering that existing metrics may fail when LLMs frequently refuse the request, we propose FairScore, a metric that jointly captures refusal behavior and group-level outcome diversity. Experiments with a 1k-sample dataset on powerful LLMs reveal consistent and previously underexplored bias patterns, such as prioritizing applicants from high-income families in college admissions. Our findings highlight the risks of deploying LLMs as decision-making agents and provide a comprehensive evaluation framework for future research.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

Forced Deferral: Manipulating Routing Decisions in Multimodal LLM Cascades

While multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have shown strong visual reasoning abilities, serving a large model for every query is computationally expensive. MLLM cascades mitigate this cost by first querying a weak but cheaper model and deferring to a strong model when the weak model's output is unconfident. However, since the weak model's confidence directly controls compute allocation, these systems expose a new attack surface: an adversary can manipulate confidence so that their queries are consistently deferred to the strong model. Motivated by this vulnerability, we introduce the Forced Deferral Attack (FDA), an adversarial image attack that lowers the weak model's confidence and causes cascades to route queries to the strong model. FDA learns a universal border trigger by optimizing a temperature-flattened objective. This objective pushes the weak model's token distribution on triggered inputs toward less concentrated targets constructed from its clean responses. Across datasets, model families, and deferral metrics, FDA consistently increases strong-model routing while outperforming image-perturbation and prompt-injection baselines. These results show that MLLM cascades are vulnerable to attacks that manipulate compute allocation, forcing unintended strong-model usage without directly targeting answer correctness.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Exposing Vulnerabilities in Explanation for Time Series Classifiers via Dual-Target Attacks

Interpretable time series deep learning systems are often assessed by checking temporal consistency on explanations, implicitly treating this as evidence of robustness. We show that this assumption can fail: Predictions and explanations can be adversarially decoupled, enabling targeted misclassification while the explanation remains plausible and consistent with a chosen reference rationale. We propose TSEF (Time Series Explanation Fooler), a dual-target attack that jointly manipulates the classifier and explainer outputs. In contrast to single-objective misclassification attacks that disrupt explanation and spread attribution mass broadly, TSEF achieves targeted prediction changes while keeping explanations consistent with the reference. Across multiple datasets and explainer backbones, our results consistently reveal that explanation stability is a misleading proxy for decision robustness and motivate coupling-aware robustness evaluations for trustworthy time series tasks.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

GenPT: Beyond Self-Report for Reliable LLM Psychometrics via Generative Projective Testing

Self-report questionnaires remain the prevailing tool for probing the psychological states of persona-conditioned agents (PC-Agents). However, classical instruments inherit two well-known threats: contamination from training corpora and directional bias driven by social-desirability or contextual framing. To overcome these methodological bottlenecks, we ask whether projective paradigms can be adapted into a robust psychometric tool. We introduce \textbf{GenPT} (Generative Projective Testing), which reformulates TAT, Rorschach, and SCT with newly generated stimuli and organizes assessment as a three-stage pipeline to derive standardized psychological indicators and target states. Evaluating PC-Agents induced via CharacterRAG and AnnaAgent profiles, we benchmark GenPT's reliability and validity against classical questionnaires. The results indicate that questionnaires exhibit systematic directional shifts under social-desirability framing, most strongly on suicide ideation. In contrast, GenPT's collected behavioral patterns stay near the symmetric baseline. Furthermore, under a longitudinal counselling context, GenPT-based depression assessment shifts by roughly an order of magnitude more than the questionnaire counterpart when Qwen3 serves as the backbone. Overall, GenPT complements self-report methods in scenarios where contamination resistance, bias asymmetry, and context sensitivity matter. Code and stimuli can be found at https://github.com/sci-m-wang/GenPT.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2026

ForecastCompass: Guiding Agentic Forecasting with Adaptive Factor Memory

Agentic forecasting is important for decision-making in dynamic environments, but it remains challenging because agents must reason from incomplete, time-limited evidence and produce calibrated probabilities before outcomes are resolved. Memory provides a natural mechanism for transferring experience from resolved forecasts to future prediction tasks. However, existing agent-memory methods are not tailored to forecasting, as they typically store past interactions, reflections, or factual associations without explicitly representing reusable predictive factors or calibration knowledge. We propose ForecastCompass (FoCo), an adaptive factor-based memory framework for agentic forecasting. FoCo organizes forecasting experience with a hierarchical forecasting-task taxonomy, enabling retrieval task-relevant forecasting knowledge. It maintains two complementary memory components: factor memory, which captures reusable predictive dimensions, and reasoning memory, which encodes probability updating, uncertainty handling, and calibration principles. Using retrospective analyses as learning signals, FoCo iteratively revises memory through a verbalized memory-revision procedure, enabling the agent to accumulate transferable forecasting knowledge over time. Experiments on Prophet Arena and FutureX with GPT-5-mini and Gemini-2.5-Flash show that FoCo improves both probabilistic accuracy and calibration.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

MemCollab: Cross-Model Memory Collaboration via Contrastive Trajectory Distillation

LLM agents increasingly rely on memory mechanisms to reuse knowledge from past problem-solving experiences. However, existing methods typically construct memory for a single agent and reuse it with the same underlying model, tightly coupling stored knowledge to model-specific reasoning styles. In heterogeneous deployments, where agents may be instantiated with backbone models of different sizes, architectures, or specializations, this raises a key question: can a single memory system be shared across agents with different backbone models? We find that naive cross-model memory transfer can degrade performance, because stored memories often entangle task-relevant knowledge with model-specific biases. To address this challenge, we propose MemCollab, a collaborative memory framework that builds shared cross-model memory by contrasting reasoning trajectories generated by different model-based agents on the same task. Through this contrastive process, MemCollab distills abstract reasoning constraints that capture shared task-level invariants while suppressing model-specific artifacts. We further introduce a task-aware retrieval mechanism that conditions memory access on task category, ensuring that only relevant constraints are retrieved at inference time. Experiments on mathematical reasoning and code generation benchmarks show that MemCollab consistently improves both accuracy and inference-time efficiency across diverse agents, including settings with different model families. These results demonstrate that collaboratively constructed cross-model memory can serve as a shared reasoning resource for heterogeneous LLM-based agents.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

SkillGrad: Optimizing Agent Skills Like Gradient Descent

Agent skills provide a lightweight way to adapt LLM agents to specialized domains by storing reusable procedural knowledge in structured files. However, whether downloaded from third parties or self-generated, these skills are often unreliable, incomplete, or outdated. Existing skill-evolution methods often address these deficiencies through heuristic reflections without an explicit optimization formulation. In this paper, we propose SkillGrad, a gradient-descent-inspired framework for optimizing agent skills. SkillGrad treats the skill package as a structured parameter to optimize in a gradient descent fashion: task executions provide trajectory-level loss evidence, automatic diagnoses then provide text-based gradients that indicate the correction directions. To stabilize optimization across iterations, a momentum agent accumulates recurring diagnostic patterns into a persistent memory overlay. Finally, an LLM-based patcher executes the parameter update by applying layer-aware edits to the skill package. Evaluated on SpreadsheetBench Verified and WikiTableQuestions, SkillGrad consistently outperforms training-based skill evolution baselines across two backbone LLMs, improving over the strongest training-based baseline by $6.7$ percentage points on average. Ablations further show that momentum and contrastive diagnosis both contribute to the final skill quality.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Mitigating topology biases in Graph Diffusion via Counterfactual Intervention

Graph diffusion models have gained significant attention in graph generation tasks, but they often inherit and amplify topology biases from sensitive attributes (e.g. gender, age, region), leading to unfair synthetic graphs. Existing fair graph generation using diffusion models is limited to specific graph-based applications with complete labels or requires simultaneous updates for graph structure and node attributes, making them unsuitable for general usage. To relax these limitations by applying the debiasing method directly on graph topology, we propose Fair Graph Diffusion Model (FairGDiff), a counterfactual-based one-step solution that mitigates topology biases while balancing fairness and utility. In detail, we construct a causal model to capture the relationship between sensitive attributes, biased link formation, and the generated graph structure. By answering the counterfactual question "Would the graph structure change if the sensitive attribute were different?", we estimate an unbiased treatment and incorporate it into the diffusion process. FairGDiff integrates counterfactual learning into both forward diffusion and backward denoising, ensuring that the generated graphs are independent of sensitive attributes while preserving structural integrity. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that FairGDiff achieves a superior trade-off between fairness and utility, outperforming existing fair graph generation methods while maintaining scalability.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

PreFlect: From Retrospective to Prospective Reflection in Large Language Model Agents

Advanced large language model agents typically adopt self-reflection for improving performance, where agents iteratively analyze past actions to correct errors. However, existing reflective approaches are inherently retrospective: agents act, observe failure, and only then attempt to recover. In this work, we introduce PreFlect, a prospective reflection mechanism that shifts the paradigm from post hoc correction to pre-execution foresight by criticizing and refining agent plans before execution. To support grounded prospective reflection, we distill planning errors from historical agent trajectories, capturing recurring success and failure patterns observed across past executions. Furthermore, we complement prospective reflection with a dynamic re-planning mechanism that provides execution-time plan update in case the original plan encounters unexpected deviation. Evaluations on different benchmarks demonstrate that PreFlect significantly improves overall agent utility on complex real-world tasks, outperforming strong reflection-based baselines and several more complex agent architectures. Code will be updated at https://github.com/wwwhy725/PreFlect.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

FROG: Fair Removal on Graphs

With growing emphasis on privacy regulations, machine unlearning has become increasingly critical in real-world applications such as social networks and recommender systems, many of which are naturally represented as graphs. However, existing graph unlearning methods often modify nodes or edges indiscriminately, overlooking their impact on fairness. For instance, forgetting links between users of different genders may inadvertently exacerbate group disparities. To address this issue, we propose a novel framework that jointly optimizes both the graph structure and the model to achieve fair unlearning. Our method rewires the graph by removing redundant edges that hinder forgetting while preserving fairness through targeted edge augmentation. We further introduce a worst-case evaluation mechanism to assess robustness under challenging scenarios. Experiments on real-world datasets show that our approach achieves more effective and fair unlearning than existing baselines.

cs.LG↗