arXiv subjects

Luca Di Persio

Publications and source records attributed to Luca Di Persio.

61 records · Page 4Linked to original sources

arXiv2016

Jump Diffusion and α-Stable Techniques for the Markov Switching Approach to Financial Time Series

We perform a detailed comparison between a Markov Switching Jump Diffusion Model and a Markov Switching α-Stable Distribution Model with respect to the analysis of non-stationary data. We show that the jump diffusion model is extremely robust, flexible and accurate in fitting of financial time series. A thorough computational study involving the two models being applied to real data, namely, the S&P500 index, is provided. The study shows that the jump-diffusion model solves the over-smoothing issue stated in (Di Persio and Frigo, 2016), while the α-stable distribution approach is a good compromise between computational effort and performance in the estimate of implied volatility, which is a major problem widely underlined in the dedicated literature.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2015

A computational spectral approach to interest rate models

The Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) technique recovers a finite second order random variable exploiting suitable linear combinations of orthogonal polynomials which are functions of a given stochas- tic quantity ξ, hence acting as a kind of random basis. The PCE methodology has been developed as a mathematically rigorous Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) method which aims at providing reliable numerical estimates for some uncertain physical quantities defining the dynamic of certain engineering models and their related simulations. In the present paper we exploit the PCE approach to analyze some equity and interest rate models considering, without loss of generality, the one dimensional case. In particular we will take into account those models which are based on the Geometric Brownian Motion (gBm), e.g. the Vasicek model, the CIR model, etc. We also provide several numerical applications and results which are discussed for a set of volatility values. The latter allows us to test the PCE technique on a quite large set of different scenarios, hence providing a rather complete and detailed investigation on PCE-approximation's features and properties, such as the convergence of statistics, distribution and quantiles. Moreover we give results concerning both an efficiency and an accuracy study of our approach by comparing our outputs with the ones obtained adopting the Monte Carlo approach in its standard form as well as in its enhanced version.

q-fin.CP↗

arXiv2015

Autoregressive approaches to import-export time series I: basic techniques

This work is the first part of a project dealing with an in-depth study of effective techniques used in econometrics in order to make accurate forecasts in the concrete framework of one of the major economies of the most productive Italian area, namely the province of Verona. In particular, we develop an approach mainly based on vector autoregressions, where lagged values of two or more variables are considered, Granger causality, and the stochastic trend approach useful to work with the cointegration phenomenon. Latter techniques constitute the core of the present paper, whereas in the second part of the project, we present how these approaches can be applied to economic data at our disposal in order to obtain concrete analysis of import--export behavior for the considered productive area of Verona.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2015

Autoregressive approaches to import--export time series II: a concrete case study

The present work constitutes the second part of a two-paper project that, in particular, deals with an in-depth study of effective techniques used in econometrics in order to make accurate forecasts in the concrete framework of one of the major economies of the most productive Italian area, namely the province of Verona. It is worth mentioning that this region is indubitably recognized as the core of the commercial engine of the whole Italian country. This is why our analysis has a concrete impact; it is based on real data, and this is also the reason why particular attention has been taken in treating the relevant economical data and in choosing the right methods to manage them to obtain good forecasts. In particular, we develop an approach mainly based on vector autoregression where lagged values of two or more variables are considered, Granger causality, and the stochastic trend approach useful to work with the cointegration phenomenon.

q-fin.ST↗

arXiv2014

A class of Lévy driven SDEs and their explicit invariant measures

We describe a class of explicit invariant measures for both finite and infinite dimensional Stochastic Differential Equations (SDE) driven by Lévy noise. We first discuss in details the finite dimensional case with a linear, resp. non linear, drift. In particular, we exhibit a class of such SDEs for which the invariant measures are given in explicit form, coherently in all dimensions. We then indicate how to relate them to invariant measures for SDEs on separable Hilbert spaces.

math.PR↗

arXiv2013

Explicit invariant measures for infinite dimensional SDE driven by Lévy noise with dissipative nonlinear drift I

We stu\dd y a class of nonlinear stochastic partial differential equations with dissipative nonlinear drift, driven by Lévy noise. Our work is divided in two parts. In the present part I we first define a Hilbert-Banach setting in which we can prove existence and uniqueness of solutions under general assumptions on the drift and the Lévy noise. We then prove a decomposition of the solution process in a stationary component and a component which vanishes asymptotically for large times in the $L^p-$sense, $p\geq1$. The law of the stationary component is identified with the unique invariant probability measure of the process. In part II we will exhibit the invariant measure as the limit of explicit invariant measures for finite dimensional approximants.

math.PR↗

arXiv2012

Approximation and convergence of solutions to semilinear stochastic evolution equations with jumps

We prove that the mild solution to a semilinear stochastic evolution equation on a Hilbert space, driven by either a square integrable martingale or a Poisson random measure, is (jointly) continuous, in a suitable topology, with respect to the initial datum and all coefficients. In particular, if the leading linear operators are maximal (quasi-)monotone and converge in the strong resolvent sense, the drift and diffusion coefficients are uniformly Lipschitz continuous and converge pointwise, and the initial data converge, then the solutions converge.

math.AP↗