arXiv subjects

Luca Pappalardo

Publications and source records attributed to Luca Pappalardo.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2023

One-Shot Traffic Assignment with Forward-Looking Penalization

Traffic assignment (TA) is crucial in optimizing transportation systems and consists in efficiently assigning routes to a collection of trips. Existing TA algorithms often do not adequately consider real-time traffic conditions, resulting in inefficient route assignments. This paper introduces METIS, a cooperative, one-shot TA algorithm that combines alternative routing with edge penalization and informed route scoring. We conduct experiments in several cities to evaluate the performance of METIS against state-of-the-art one-shot methods. Compared to the best baseline, METIS significantly reduces CO2 emissions by 18% in Milan, 28\% in Florence, and 46% in Rome, improving trip distribution considerably while still having low computational time. Our study proposes METIS as a promising solution for optimizing TA and urban transportation systems.

cs.MA↗

arXiv2023

Mobility constraints in segregation models

Since the development of the original Schelling model of urban segregation, several enhancements have been proposed, but none have considered the impact of mobility constraints on model dynamics. Recent studies have shown that human mobility follows specific patterns, such as a preference for short distances and dense locations. This paper proposes a segregation model incorporating mobility constraints to make agents select their location based on distance and location relevance. Our findings indicate that the mobility-constrained model produces lower segregation levels but takes longer to converge than the original Schelling model. We identified a few persistently unhappy agents from the minority group who cause this prolonged convergence time and lower segregation level as they move around the grid centre. Our study presents a more realistic representation of how agents move in urban areas and provides a novel and insightful approach to analyzing the impact of mobility constraints on segregation models. We highlight the significance of incorporating mobility constraints when policymakers design interventions to address urban segregation.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2022

Generating Synthetic Mobility Networks with Generative Adversarial Networks

The increasingly crucial role of human displacements in complex societal phenomena, such as traffic congestion, segregation, and the diffusion of epidemics, is attracting the interest of scientists from several disciplines. In this article, we address mobility network generation, i.e., generating a city's entire mobility network, a weighted directed graph in which nodes are geographic locations and weighted edges represent people's movements between those locations, thus describing the entire mobility set flows within a city. Our solution is MoGAN, a model based on Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) to generate realistic mobility networks. We conduct extensive experiments on public datasets of bike and taxi rides to show that MoGAN outperforms the classical Gravity and Radiation models regarding the realism of the generated networks. Our model can be used for data augmentation and performing simulations and what-if analysis.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

How Routing Strategies Impact Urban Emissions

Navigation apps use routing algorithms to suggest the best path to reach a user's desired destination. Although undoubtedly useful, navigation apps' impact on the urban environment (e.g., carbon dioxide emissions and population exposure to pollution) is still largely unclear. In this work, we design a simulation framework to assess the impact of routing algorithms on carbon dioxide emissions within an urban environment. Using APIs from TomTom and OpenStreetMap, we find that settings in which either all vehicles or none of them follow a navigation app's suggestion lead to the worst impact in terms of CO2 emissions. In contrast, when just a portion (around half) of vehicles follow these suggestions, and some degree of randomness is added to the remaining vehicles' paths, we observe a reduction in the overall CO2 emissions over the road network. Our work is a first step towards designing next-generation routing principles that may increase urban well-being while satisfying individual needs.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2022

Gross polluters and vehicles' emissions reduction

Vehicles' emissions produce a significant share of cities' air pollution, with a substantial impact on the environment and human health. Traditional emission estimation methods use remote sensing stations, missing vehicles' full driving cycle, or focus on a few vehicles. We use GPS traces and a microscopic model to analyse the emissions of four air pollutants from thousands of private vehicles in three European cities. We find that the emissions across the vehicles and roads are well approximated by heavy-tailed distributions and thus discover the existence of gross polluters, vehicles responsible for the greatest quantity of emissions, and grossly polluted roads, which suffer the greatest amount of emissions. Our simulations show that emissions reduction policies targeting gross polluters are way more effective than those limiting circulation based on a non-informed choice of vehicles. Our study contributes to shaping the discussion on how to measure emissions with digital data.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2022

Enhancing crowd flow prediction in various spatial and temporal granularities

Thanks to the diffusion of the Internet of Things, nowadays it is possible to sense human mobility almost in real time using unconventional methods (e.g., number of bikes in a bike station). Due to the diffusion of such technologies, the last years have witnessed a significant growth of human mobility studies, motivated by their importance in a wide range of applications, from traffic management to public security and computational epidemiology. A mobility task that is becoming prominent is crowd flow prediction, i.e., forecasting aggregated incoming and outgoing flows in the locations of a geographic region. Although several deep learning approaches have been proposed to solve this problem, their usage is limited to specific types of spatial tessellations and cannot provide sufficient explanations of their predictions. We propose CrowdNet, a solution to crowd flow prediction based on graph convolutional networks. Compared with state-of-the-art solutions, CrowdNet can be used with regions of irregular shapes and provide meaningful explanations of the predicted crowd flows. We conduct experiments on public data varying the spatio-temporal granularity of crowd flows to show the superiority of our model with respect to existing methods, and we investigate CrowdNet's reliability to missing or noisy input data. Our model is a step forward in the design of reliable deep learning models to predict and explain human displacements in urban environments.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2022

Trajectory Test-Train Overlap in Next-Location Prediction Datasets

Next-location prediction, consisting of forecasting a user's location given their historical trajectories, has important implications in several fields, such as urban planning, geo-marketing, and disease spreading. Several predictors have been proposed in the last few years to address it, including last-generation ones based on deep learning. This paper tests the generalization capability of these predictors on public mobility datasets, stratifying the datasets by whether the trajectories in the test set also appear fully or partially in the training set. We consistently discover a severe problem of trajectory overlapping in all analyzed datasets, highlighting that predictors memorize trajectories while having limited generalization capacities. We thus propose a methodology to rerank the outputs of the next-location predictors based on spatial mobility patterns. With these techniques, we significantly improve the predictors' generalization capability, with a relative improvement on the accuracy up to 96.15% on the trajectories that cannot be memorized (i.e., low overlap with the training set).

cs.AI↗

arXiv2022

Deep Gravity: enhancing mobility flows generation with deep neural networks and geographic information

The movements of individuals within and among cities influence critical aspects of our society, such as well-being, the spreading of epidemics, and the quality of the environment. When information about mobility flows is not available for a particular region of interest, we must rely on mathematical models to generate them. In this work, we propose the Deep Gravity model, an effective method to generate flow probabilities that exploits many variables (e.g., land use, road network, transport, food, health facilities) extracted from voluntary geographic data, and uses deep neural networks to discover non-linear relationships between those variables and mobility flows. Our experiments, conducted on mobility flows in England, Italy, and New York State, show that Deep Gravity has good geographic generalization capability, achieving a significant increase in performance (especially in densely populated regions of interest) with respect to the classic gravity model and models that do not use deep neural networks or geographic data. We also show how flows generated by Deep Gravity may be explained in terms of the geographic features using explainable AI techniques.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Understanding peacefulness through the world news

Peacefulness is a principal dimension of well-being and is the way out of inequity and violence. Thus, its measurement has drawn the attention of researchers, policymakers, and peacekeepers. During the last years, novel digital data streams have drastically changed the research in this field. The current study exploits information extracted from a new digital database called Global Data on Events, Location, and Tone (GDELT) to capture peacefulness through the Global Peace Index (GPI). Applying predictive machine learning models, we demonstrate that news media attention from GDELT can be used as a proxy for measuring GPI at a monthly level. Additionally, we use explainable AI techniques to obtain the most important variables that drive the predictions. This analysis highlights each country's profile and provides explanations for the predictions, and particularly for the errors and the events that drive these errors. We believe that digital data exploited by researchers, policymakers, and peacekeepers, with data science tools as powerful as machine learning, could contribute to maximizing the societal benefits and minimizing the risks to peacefulness.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2021

Living in a pandemic: adaptation of individual mobility and social activity in the US

The non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), aimed at reducing the diffusion of the COVID-19 pandemic, has dramatically influenced our behaviour in everyday life. In this work, we study how individuals adapted their daily movements and person-to-person contact patterns over time in response to the COVID-19 pandemic and the NPIs. We leverage longitudinal GPS mobility data of hundreds of thousands of anonymous individuals in four US states and empirically show the dramatic disruption in people's life. We find that local interventions did not just impact the number of visits to different venues but also how people experience them. Individuals spend less time in venues, preferring simpler and more predictable routines and reducing person-to-person contact activities. Moreover, we show that the stringency of interventions alone does explain the number and duration of visits to venues: individual patterns of visits seem to be influenced by the local severity of the pandemic and a risk adaptation factor, which increases the people's mobility regardless of the stringency of interventions.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2021

Coach2vec: autoencoding the playing style of soccer coaches

Capturing the playing style of professional soccer coaches is a complex, and yet barely explored, task in sports analytics. Nowadays, the availability of digital data describing every relevant spatio-temporal aspect of soccer matches, allows for capturing and analyzing the playing style of players, teams, and coaches in an automatic way. In this paper, we present coach2vec, a workflow to capture the playing style of professional coaches using match event streams and artificial intelligence. Coach2vec extracts ball possessions from each match, clusters them based on their similarity, and reconstructs the typical ball possessions of coaches. Then, it uses an autoencoder, a type of artificial neural network, to obtain a concise representation (encoding) of the playing style of each coach. Our experiments, conducted on soccer-logs describing the last four seasons of the Italian first division, reveal interesting similarities between prominent coaches, paving the road to the simulation of playing styles and the quantitative comparison of professional coaches.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2021

A Survey on Deep Learning for Human Mobility

The study of human mobility is crucial due to its impact on several aspects of our society, such as disease spreading, urban planning, well-being, pollution, and more. The proliferation of digital mobility data, such as phone records, GPS traces, and social media posts, combined with the predictive power of artificial intelligence, triggered the application of deep learning to human mobility. Existing surveys focus on single tasks, data sources, mechanistic or traditional machine learning approaches, while a comprehensive description of deep learning solutions is missing. This survey provides a taxonomy of mobility tasks, a discussion on the challenges related to each task and how deep learning may overcome the limitations of traditional models, a description of the most relevant solutions to the mobility tasks described above and the relevant challenges for the future. Our survey is a guide to the leading deep learning solutions to next-location prediction, crowd flow prediction, trajectory generation, and flow generation. At the same time, it helps deep learning scientists and practitioners understand the fundamental concepts and the open challenges of the study of human mobility.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Scikit-mobility: a Python library for the analysis, generation and risk assessment of mobility data

The last decade has witnessed the emergence of massive mobility data sets, such as tracks generated by GPS devices, call detail records, and geo-tagged posts from social media platforms. These data sets have fostered a vast scientific production on various applications of mobility analysis, ranging from computational epidemiology to urban planning and transportation engineering. A strand of literature addresses data cleaning issues related to raw spatiotemporal trajectories, while the second line of research focuses on discovering the statistical "laws" that govern human movements. A significant effort has also been put on designing algorithms to generate synthetic trajectories able to reproduce, realistically, the laws of human mobility. Last but not least, a line of research addresses the crucial problem of privacy, proposing techniques to perform the re-identification of individuals in a database. A view on state of the art cannot avoid noticing that there is no statistical software that can support scientists and practitioners with all the aspects mentioned above of mobility data analysis. In this paper, we propose scikit-mobility, a Python library that has the ambition of providing an environment to reproduce existing research, analyze mobility data, and simulate human mobility habits. scikit-mobility is efficient and easy to use as it extends pandas, a popular Python library for data analysis. Moreover, scikit-mobility provides the user with many functionalities, from visualizing trajectories to generating synthetic data, from analyzing statistical patterns to assessing the privacy risk related to the analysis of mobility data sets.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2021

An interactive dashboard for searching and comparing soccer performance scores

The performance of soccer players is one of most discussed aspects by many actors in the soccer industry: from supporters to journalists, from coaches to talent scouts. Unfortunately, the dashboards available online provide no effective way to compare the evolution of the performance of players or to find players behaving similarly on the field. This paper describes the design of a web dashboard that interacts via APIs with a performance evaluation algorithm and provides graphical tools that allow the user to perform many tasks, such as to search or compare players by age, role or trend of growth in their performance, find similar players based on their pitching behavior, change the algorithm's parameters to obtain customized performance scores. We also describe an example of how a talent scout can interact with the dashboard to find young, promising talents.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2021

The relationship between human mobility and viral transmissibility during the COVID-19 epidemics in Italy

In 2020, countries affected by the COVID-19 pandemic implemented various non-pharmaceutical interventions to contrast the spread of the virus and its impact on their healthcare systems and economies. Using Italian data at different geographic scales, we investigate the relationship between human mobility, which subsumes many facets of the population's response to the changing situation, and the spread of COVID-19. Leveraging mobile phone data from February through September 2020, we find a striking relationship between the decrease in mobility flows and the net reproduction number. We find that the time needed to switch off mobility and bring the net reproduction number below the critical threshold of 1 is about one week. Moreover, we observe a strong relationship between the number of days spent above such threshold before the lockdown-induced drop in mobility flows and the total number of infections per 100k inhabitants. Estimating the statistical effect of mobility flows on the net reproduction number over time, we document a 2-week lag positive association, strong in March and April, and weaker but still significant in June. Our study demonstrates the value of big mobility data to monitor the epidemic and inform control interventions during its unfolding.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2021

Explaining the difference between men's and women's football

Women's football is gaining supporters and practitioners worldwide, raising questions about what the differences are with men's football. While the two sports are often compared based on the players' physical attributes, we analyze the spatio-temporal events during matches in the last World Cups to compare male and female teams based on their technical performance. We train an artificial intelligence model to recognize if a team is male or female based on variables that describe a match's playing intensity, accuracy, and performance quality. Our model accurately distinguishes between men's and women's football, revealing crucial technical differences, which we investigate through the extraction of explanations from the classifier's decisions. The differences between men's and women's football are rooted in play accuracy, the recovery time of ball possession, and the players' performance quality. Our methodology may help journalists and fans understand what makes women's football a distinct sport and coaches design tactics tailored to female teams.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2020

A dataset to assess mobility changes in Chile following local quarantines

Fighting the COVID-19 pandemic, most countries have implemented non-pharmaceutical interventions like wearing masks, physical distancing, lockdown, and travel restrictions. Because of their economic and logistical effects, tracking mobility changes during quarantines is crucial in assessing their efficacy and predicting the virus spread. Chile, one of the worst-hit countries in the world, unlike many other countries, implemented quarantines at a more localized level, shutting down small administrative zones, rather than the whole country or large regions. Given the non-obvious effects of these localized quarantines, tracking mobility becomes even more critical in Chile. To assess the impact on human mobility of the localized quarantines in Chile, we analyze a mobile phone dataset made available by Telefónica Chile, which comprises 31 billion eXtended Detail Records and 5.4 million users covering the period February 26th to September 20th, 2020. From these records, we derive three epidemiologically relevant metrics describing the mobility within and between comunas. The datasets made available can be used to fight the COVID-19 epidemics, particularly for localized quarantines' less understood effect.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2020

An individual-level ground truth dataset for home location detection

Home detection, assigning a phone device to its home antenna, is a ubiquitous part of most studies in the literature on mobile phone data. Despite its widespread use, home detection relies on a few assumptions that are difficult to check without ground truth, i.e., where the individual that owns the device resides. In this paper, we provide an unprecedented evaluation of the accuracy of home detection algorithms on a group of sixty-five participants for whom we know their exact home address and the antennas that might serve them. Besides, we analyze not only Call Detail Records (CDRs) but also two other mobile phone streams: eXtended Detail Records (XDRs, the ``data'' channel) and Control Plane Records (CPRs, the network stream). These data streams vary not only in their temporal granularity but also they differ in the data generation mechanism', e.g., CDRs are purely human-triggered while CPR is purely machine-triggered events. Finally, we quantify the amount of data that is needed for each stream to carry out successful home detection for each stream. We find that the choice of stream and the algorithm heavily influences home detection, with an hour-of-day algorithm for the XDRs performing the best, and with CPRs performing best for the amount of data needed to perform home detection. Our work is useful for researchers and practitioners in order to minimize data requests and to maximize the accuracy of home antenna location.

cs.CY↗