arXiv subjects

Luca Spogli

Publications and source records attributed to Luca Spogli.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Statistical Models of Ionospheric Variability and Irregularities in the Topside Ionosphere Based on the Swarm Satellite Data

The ionosphere is a highly complex plasma containing electron density structures with a wide range of spatial scales. Coupling of the ionosphere with the Earth's magnetosphere and the solar wind, as well as to the neutral atmosphere, makes the ionosphere highly dynamic and highly dependent on the driving processes. Thus, modelling the ionosphere and capturing its full dynamic range considering all spatiotemporal scales is challenging. Swarm is the European Space Agency's (ESA) first constellation mission for Earth Observation, comprising multiple satellites in low Earth orbit. During the Swarm-VIP-Dynamic project, a suite of statistical models has been developed using observations from Swarm and proxies for heliogeophysical processes. The statistical modelling technique of Generalised Linear Modelling was used to create models for both the electron density and the variability of the plasma structures at horizontal spatial scales between 7.5 km and 100 km. Separate models were created for low, middle, auroral and polar latitudes. The models make predictions based on explanatory variables, which act as proxies for the underlying physical processes. The performance of the models of the electron density approached the theoretical best values for some of the goodness-of-fit statistics. This suggests that the modelling method is appropriate for the task undertaken. The models of ionospheric variability at larger spatial scales (about 100 km) also perform well, however the model performance decreases at smaller spatial scales. This suggests that there are physical processes missing from the models. Possible candidates are instability processes or driving forces of the ionosphere by wave activity from below, neither of which are captured by the models.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2026

A quiet STEVE disturbs navigation satellites' signals in the Antarctic

Strong Thermal Emission Velocity Enhancement (STEVE) is a narrow optical phenomenon that occurs equatorward of the auroral oval and is associated with intense subauroral plasma flows and thermospheric heating. Although these conditions can produce plasma irregularities, direct evidence of STEVE effects on radio wave propagation during geomagnetically quiet conditions has so far not been observed. Here we report for the first time a STEVE event observed over Antarctica during quiet geomagnetic conditions and show that it produced measurable fluctuations in the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) signals. Using coordinated optical observations and high-resolution (50 Hz) GNSS scintillation measurements from two Antarctic stations, we identify enhanced phase and amplitude scintillation coincident with intersections between GNSS signal paths and the STEVE arc. The observations indicate the presence of plasma irregularities and suggest substantial temporal variations in the apparent altitude of the optical structure (vertical motion within the 130-270 km range). We find that even a relatively weak STEVE event can affect the GNSS signal propagation in the absence of major geomagnetic disturbances, extending previous studies that associated such effects primarily with storms and intense auroral activity. This finding expands the understanding of STEVE's geophysical impact and highlights potential vulnerabilities in satellite-based navigation systems during seemingly benign space weather conditions. The fact that this STEVE event occurred just off the Antarctic coastline, where scientific expeditions and seagoing vessels rely heavily on precise positioning indicates that STEVE-related plasma structuring should be considered in assessments of the GNSS performance under otherwise quiet geomagnetic conditions in subauroral regions.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2026

Multi-Scale Irregularities Product: a data product utilizing the high-resolution Swarm plasma density data for space weather applications

We use the high-resolution Swarm faceplate plasma density data at 16 Hz to develop a set of parameters that can characterize multi-scale ionospheric structures and irregularities along the Swarm orbit. We present the methods for calculating density gradients over different window sizes, rate of change of density index, power spectral density and the spectral slope at both low and high latitudes. The faceplate plasma data are not continuously available through the years. However, about 8 years of data from Swarm A are processed from late 2014 to the end of 2025. Some statistical results from Swarm A are presented. The variations of plasma structures and irregularities are dependent on solar activity, season, local time and geomagnetic activities, and the variations show different patterns between low and high latitudes. For example, the high-latitude ionosphere is characterized by persistent ionospheric structures and irregularities poleward of 60 magnetic latitude, while the low-latitude ionospheric irregularities are only dominant during 19-01 local time near the magnetic equator. The occurrence of steep spectral slope at high latitudes shows clear seasonal variations, i.e., it maximizes during local summer and minimizes during local winter in both hemispheres. However, the occurrence of steep spectral slope at low latitudes is only sensible when significant plasma structures and irregularities are present. We further calculate the histogram of spectral slopes at low latitudes when the rate of change of density index is enhanced. The histogram resembles a Gaussian distribution with an expected value of 1.97. The processed data are available to the wider community. Given the high resolution, this new data product will be useful for the scientific communities that are interested in the magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere coupling and near-Earth space environment.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2025

Kinetic renormalization of auroral turbulence

Driven-dissipative systems often exhibit self-organization in the form of coherent dissipative structures. However, observing such critical states in natural plasmas remains elusive, leading to the traditional view that the fine structure of Earth's auroral ionosphere is shaped by local turbulent flows. Here we report the discovery of a self-organizing regime in Earth's ionosphere. We identify this by modeling the sum of saturation electric fields in the turbulent auroral electrojets as a stochastic variable that renormalizes into noise-enabled transport, via explicitly derived Bohm diffusion. This constitutes an effective field-theory for Farley-Buneman turbulence in the Martin-Siggia-Rose formalism for renormalization group theory, for which we provide strong empirical evidence. Using a composite radar-GPS power spectrum of plasma turbulence, we resolve a scale-invariant cascade that exhibits a characteristic kinetic Alfv\'{e}n $k^{-8/3}$-signature across four orders of magnitude in $k$. What is more, a large statistical analysis of how the turbulence responds to magnetospheric driving reveals a clear tendency for the observed number density of turbulent waves to scale linearly with driving power, matching the predictions made by our field theory's overdamped equations of motion, which offer closed-form calculations of macroscopic transport relations that are uniquely suitable for sub-grid parameterization in space weather modeling. This establishes geospace storms as opportunities to observe non-equilibrium phase transitions imposing global constraints on collision-dominated systems.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2024

Scintillations in Southern Europe during the geomagnetic storm of June 2015: analysis of a plasma bubbles spill-over using ground-based data

The sensitivity of Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) receivers to ionospheric disturbances and their constant growth are nowadays resulting in an increased concern of GNSS-users about the impacts of ionospheric disturbances at mid-latitudes. The geomagnetic storm of June 2015 is an example of a rare phenomenon of a spill-over of equatorial plasma bubbles well North from their habitual. We study the occurrence of small- and medium-scale irregularities in the North Atlantic Eastern-Mediterranean mid- and low-latitudinal zone by analysing the behaviour of the amplitude scintillation index S4 and of the rate of total electron content index (ROTI) during such a storm. In addition, large scale perturbations of the ionospheric electron density were studied using ground and space-born instruments, thus characterizing a complex perturbation behaviour over the region mentioned above. The multi-source data allows us to characterize the impact of irregularities of different scales to better understand the ionospheric dynamics and stress the importance of a proper monitoring of the ionosphere in the studied region.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2017

Space weather challenges of the polar cap ionosphere

This paper presents research on polar cap ionosphere space weather phenomena conducted during the European Cooperation in Science and Technology (COST) action ES0803 from 2008 to 2012. The main part of the work has been directed toward the study of plasma instabilities and scintillations in association with cusp flow channels and polar cap electron density structures/patches,which is considered as critical knowledge in order to develop forecast models for scintillations in the polar cap. We have approached this problem by multi-instrument techniques that comprise the EISCAT Svalbard Radar, SuperDARN radars, in-situ rocket, and GPS scintillation measurements. The Discussion section aims to unify the bits and pieces of highly specialized information from several papers into a generalized picture. The cusp ionosphere appears as a hot region in GPS scintillation climatology maps. Our results are consistent with the existing view that scintillations in the cusp and the polar cap ionosphere are mainly due to multi-scale structures generated by instability processes associated with the cross-polar transport of polar cap patches. We have demonstrated that the SuperDARN convection model can be used to track these patches backward and forward in time. Hence, once a patch has been detected in the cusp inflow region, SuperDARN can be used to forecast its destination in the future. However, the high-density gradient of polar cap patches is not the only prerequisite for high-latitude scintillations. Unprecedented high resolution rocket measurements reveal that the cusp ionosphere is associated with filamentary precipitation giving rise to kilometer scale gradients onto which the gradient drift instability can operate very efficiently... (continued)

physics.space-ph↗