arXiv subjects

Lucas C. Parra

Publications and source records attributed to Lucas C. Parra.

7 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2024

Real-time estimation of overt attention from dynamic features of the face using deep-learning

Students often drift in and out of focus during class. Effective teachers recognize this and re-engage them when necessary. With the shift to remote learning, teachers have lost the visual feedback needed to adapt to varying student engagement. We propose using readily available front-facing video to infer attention levels based on movements of the eyes, head, and face. We train a deep learning model to predict a measure of attention based on overt eye movements. Specifically, we measure Inter-Subject Correlation of eye movements in ten-second intervals while students watch the same educational videos. In 3 different experiments (N=83) we show that the trained model predicts this objective metric of attention on unseen data with $R^2$=0.38, and on unseen subjects with $R^2$=0.26-0.30. The deep network relies mostly on a student's eye movements, but to some extent also on movements of the brows, cheeks, and head. In contrast to Inter-Subject Correlation of the eyes, the model can estimate attentional engagement from individual students' movements without needing reference data from an attentive group. This enables a much broader set of online applications. The solution is lightweight and can operate on the client side, which mitigates some of the privacy concerns associated with online attention monitoring. GitHub implementation is available at https://github.com/asortubay/timeISC

cs.CV↗

arXiv2024

VARX Granger Analysis: Modeling, Inference, and Applications

Complex systems, such as brains, markets, and societies, exhibit internal dynamics influenced by external factors. Disentangling delayed external effects from internal dynamics within these systems is often challenging. We propose using a Vector Autoregressive model with eXogenous input (VARX) to capture delayed interactions between internal and external variables. While this model aligns with Granger's statistical formalism for testing "causal relations", the connection between the two is not widely understood. Here, we bridge this gap by providing fundamental equations, user-friendly code, and demonstrations using simulated and real-world data from neuroscience, physiology, sociology, and economics. Our examples illustrate how the model avoids spurious correlation by factoring out external influences from internal dynamics, leading to more parsimonious explanations of the systems. We also provide methods for enhancing model efficiency, such as L2 regularization for limited data and basis functions to cope with extended delays. Additionally, we analyze model performance under various scenarios where model assumptions are violated. MATLAB, Python, and R code are provided for easy adoption: https://github.com/lcparra/varx

stat.ME↗

arXiv2024

Predicting breast cancer with AI for individual risk-adjusted MRI screening and early detection

Women with an increased life-time risk of breast cancer undergo supplemental annual screening MRI. We propose to predict the risk of developing breast cancer within one year based on the current MRI, with the objective of reducing screening burden and facilitating early detection. An AI algorithm was developed on 53,858 breasts from 12,694 patients who underwent screening or diagnostic MRI and accrued over 12 years, with 2,331 confirmed cancers. A first U-Net was trained to segment lesions and identify regions of concern. A second convolutional network was trained to detect malignant cancer using features extracted by the U-Net. This network was then fine-tuned to estimate the risk of developing cancer within a year in cases that radiologists considered normal or likely benign. Risk predictions from this AI were evaluated with a retrospective analysis of 9,183 breasts from a high-risk screening cohort, which were not used for training. Statistical analysis focused on the tradeoff between number of omitted exams versus negative predictive value, and number of potential early detections versus positive predictive value. The AI algorithm identified regions of concern that coincided with future tumors in 52% of screen-detected cancers. Upon directed review, a radiologist found that 71.3% of cancers had a visible correlate on the MRI prior to diagnosis, 65% of these correlates were identified by the AI model. Reevaluating these regions in 10% of all cases with higher AI-predicted risk could have resulted in up to 33% early detections by a radiologist. Additionally, screening burden could have been reduced in 16% of lower-risk cases by recommending a later follow-up without compromising current interval cancer rate. With increasing datasets and improving image quality we expect this new AI-aided, adaptive screening to meaningfully reduce screening burden and improve early detection.

physics.med-ph↗

arXiv2019

Correlated Components Analysis - Extracting Reliable Dimensions in Multivariate Data

How does one find dimensions in multivariate data that are reliably expressed across repetitions? For example, in a brain imaging study one may want to identify combinations of neural signals that are reliably expressed across multiple trials or subjects. For a behavioral assessment with multiple ratings, one may want to identify an aggregate score that is reliably reproduced across raters. Correlated Components Analysis (CorrCA) addresses this problem by identifying components that are maximally correlated between repetitions (e.g. trials, subjects, raters). Here we formalize this as the maximization of the ratio of between-repetition to within-repetition covariance. We show that this criterion maximizes repeat-reliability, defined as mean over variance across repeats, and that it leads to CorrCA or to multi-set Canonical Correlation Analysis, depending on the constraints. Surprisingly, we also find that CorrCA is equivalent to Linear Discriminant Analysis for zero-mean signals, which provides an unexpected link between classic concepts of multivariate analysis. We present an exact parametric test of statistical significance based on the F-statistic for normally distributed independent samples, and present and validate shuffle statistics for the case of dependent samples. Regularization and extension to non-linear mappings using kernels are also presented. The algorithms are demonstrated on a series of data analysis applications, and we provide all code and data required to reproduce the results.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2018

Finding influential nodes for integration in brain networks using optimal percolation theory

Global integration of information in the brain results from complex interactions of segregated brain networks. Identifying the most influential neuronal populations that efficiently bind these networks is a fundamental problem of systems neuroscience. Here we apply optimal percolation theory and pharmacogenetic interventions in-vivo to predict and subsequently target nodes that are essential for global integration of a memory network in rodents. The theory predicts that integration in the memory network is mediated by a set of low-degree nodes located in the nucleus accumbens. This result is confirmed with pharmacogenetic inactivation of the nucleus accumbens, which eliminates the formation of the memory network, while inactivations of other brain areas leave the network intact. Thus, optimal percolation theory predicts essential nodes in brain networks. This could be used to identify targets of interventions to modulate brain function.

q-bio.NC↗

arXiv2016

EEG in the classroom: Synchronised neural recordings during video presentation

We performed simultaneous recordings of electroencephalography (EEG) from multiple students in a classroom, and measured the inter-subject correlation (ISC) of activity evoked by a common video stimulus. The neural reliability, as quantified by ISC, has been linked to engagement and attentional modulation in earlier studies that used high-grade equipment in laboratory settings. Here we reproduce many of the results from these studies using portable low-cost equipment, focusing on the robustness of using ISC for subjects experiencing naturalistic stimuli. The present data shows that stimulus-evoked neural responses, known to be modulated by attention, can be tracked in for groups of students with synchronized EEG acquisition. This is a step towards real-time inference of engagement in the classroom.

q-bio.NC↗

arXiv2013

Origins of power-law degree distribution in the heterogeneity of human activity in social networks

The probability distribution of number of ties of an individual in a social network follows a scale-free power-law. However, how this distribution arises has not been conclusively demonstrated in direct analyses of people's actions in social networks. Here, we perform a causal inference analysis and find an underlying cause for this phenomenon. Our analysis indicates that heavy-tailed degree distribution is causally determined by similarly skewed distribution of human activity. Specifically, the degree of an individual is entirely random - following a "maximum entropy attachment" model - except for its mean value which depends deterministically on the volume of the users' activity. This relation cannot be explained by interactive models, like preferential attachment, since the observed actions are not likely to be caused by interactions with other people.

physics.soc-ph↗