arXiv subjects

Lucas Gautheron

Publications and source records attributed to Lucas Gautheron.

7 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Active Inference with People: a general approach to real-time adaptive experiments

Adaptive experiments optimize their design throughout data collection, which can bring substantial benefits compared to conventional experimental settings. Potential applications include, among others, computerized adaptive testing (when selecting informative tasks in ability measurements), adaptive treatment assignment (when searching for experimental conditions maximizing certain outcomes), and active learning (when choosing optimal training data for machine learning algorithms). However, implementing these techniques in real time poses substantial computational and technical challenges. In this paper, we introduce a practical and unified approach to real-time adaptive experiments that can encompass these scenarios across textual, visual, and audio tasks. Our strategy combines active inference, a Bayesian framework inspired by cognitive neuroscience, with Pyro, a probabilistic programming library, and PsyNet, a modular Python package for large-scale online behavioral experiments. Active inference provides a task-agnostic optimization objective and efficient inference strategies; probabilistic programming makes the computations practical, reducing implementation costs; and PsyNet makes the resulting procedure deployable with humans in real time across diverse behavioral paradigms. We illustrate this approach through two concrete examples: (1) an adaptive testing experiment estimating participants' ability by selecting optimal challenges, reducing the number of trials required by 30--40\%; and (2) an adaptive treatment assignment strategy that identifies the optimal treatment up to three times as accurately as a fixed design. We provide instructions to facilitate adoption of the workflow.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

Dilemmas and trade-offs in the diffusion of conventions

Outside ideal settings, conventions are shaped by heterogeneous competing processes that can challenge the emergence of norms. In order to acknowledge this complexity, this paper develops a generalized account of conventions and identifies three trade-offs involved in their diffusion: (I) the trade-off between the imperatives of social, sequential, and contextual consistency that individuals balance when choosing between conventions; (II) the competition between local (bottom-up) and global (top-down) coordination, depending on whether individuals coordinate their behavior via interactions throughout a social network or external factors transcending the network; and (III) the balance between decision optimality (e.g., collective satisfaction) and decision costs when collectives with conflicting preferences choose a convention. A broadly applicable statistical physics framework for exploring these trade-offs is developed and applied to a sign convention in physics. The method can infer the structure of the underlying coordination game, the networks of social interactions involved, and the processes through which conflicts are resolved. This shows that the purpose of conventions may exceed coordination, and that individual preferences towards conventions are concurrently shaped by cultural factors and multiple social networks. Finally, this work emphasizes the role of leadership in the resolution of conflicts.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2026

Popularity Feedback Constrains Innovation in Cultural Markets

Real-world creative processes ranging from art to science rely on social feedback-loops between selection and creation. Yet, the effects of popularity feedback on collective creativity remain poorly understood. We investigate how popularity ratings influence cultural dynamics in a large-scale online experiment where participants ($N = 1\,008$) iteratively \textit{select} images from evolving markets and \textit{produce} their own modifications. Results show that exposing the popularity of images reduces cultural diversity and slows innovation, delaying aesthetic improvements. Popularity feedback is associated with changes to both selection and creative stages. During selection, popularity information triggers cumulative advantage, with participants preferentially building upon popular images, reducing diversity. During creation, participants make less disruptive changes, and are more likely to expand existing visual patterns. Feedback loops in cultural markets thus not only shape selection, but also, directly or indirectly, the form and direction of cultural innovation.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2026

Classification errors distort findings in automated speech processing: examples and solutions from child-development research

With the advent of wearable recorders, scientists are increasingly turning to automated methods of analysis of audio and video data in order to measure children's experience, behavior, and outcomes, with a sizable literature employing long-form audio-recordings to study language acquisition. While numerous articles report on the accuracy and reliability of the most popular automated classifiers, less has been written on the downstream effects of classification errors on measurements and statistical inferences (e.g., the estimate of correlations and effect sizes in regressions). This paper's main contributions are drawing attention to downstream effects of confusion errors, and providing an approach to measure and potentially recover from these errors. Specifically, we use a Bayesian approach to study the effects of algorithmic errors on key scientific questions, including the effect of siblings on children's language experience and the association between children's production and their input. By fitting a joint model of speech behavior and algorithm behavior on real and simulated data, we show that classification errors can significantly distort estimates for both the most commonly used \gls{lena}, and a slightly more accurate open-source alternative (the Voice Type Classifier from the ACLEW system). We further show that a Bayesian calibration approach for recovering unbiased estimates of effect sizes can be effective and insightful, but does not provide a fool-proof solution.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Fifteen Years of Child-Centered Long-Form Recordings: Promises, Resources, and Remaining Challenges to Validity

Audio-recordings collected with a child-worn device are a fundamental tool in child language research. Long-form recordings collected over whole days promise to capture children's input and production with minimal observer bias, and therefore high validity. The sheer volume of resulting data necessitates automated analysis to extract relevant metrics for researchers and clinicians. This paper summarizes collective knowledge on this technique, providing entry points to existing resources. We also highlight various sources of error that threaten the accuracy of automated annotations and the interpretation of resulting metrics. To address this, we propose potential troubleshooting metrics to help users assess data quality. While a fully automated quality control system is not feasible, we outline practical strategies for researchers to improve data collection and contextualize their analyses.

eess.AS↗

arXiv2024

Balancing Specialization and Adaptation in a Transforming Scientific Landscape

How do scientists navigate between the need to capitalize on their prior knowledge through specialization, and the urge to adapt to evolving research opportunities? Drawing from diverse perspectives on adaptation, including cultural evolution, this paper proposes an unsupervised Bayesian approach motivated by Optimal Transport of the evolution of scientists' research portfolios in response to transformations in their field. The model relies on $186,162$ scientific abstracts and authorship data to evaluate the influence of intellectual, social, and institutional resources on scientists' trajectories within a cohort of $2\,094$ high-energy physicists between 2000 and 2019. Using Inverse Optimal Transport, the reallocation of research efforts is shown to be shaped by learning costs, thus enhancing the utility of the scientific capital disseminated among scientists. Two dimensions of social capital, namely ``diversity'' and ``power'', have opposite associations with the magnitude of change in scientists' research interests: while ``diversity'' is associated with greater change and expansion of research portfolios, ``power'' is associated with more stable research agendas. Social capital plays a more crucial role in shifts between cognitively distant research areas. More generally, this work suggests new approaches for understanding, measuring and modeling collective adaptation using Optimal Transport.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2023

How research programs come apart: the example of supersymmetry and the disunity of physics

According to Peter Galison, the coordination of different ``subcultures'' within a scientific field happens through local exchanges within ``trading zones''. In his view, the workability of such trading zones is not guaranteed, and science is not necessarily driven towards further integration. In this paper, we develop and apply quantitative methods (using semantic, authorship, and citation data from scientific literature), inspired by Galison's framework, to the case of the disunity of high-energy physics. We give prominence to supersymmetry, a concept that has given rise to several major but distinct research programs in the field, such as the formulation of a consistent theory of quantum gravity or the search for new particles. We show that ``theory'' and `phenomenology'' in high-energy physics should be regarded as distinct theoretical subcultures, between which supersymmetry has helped sustain scientific ``trades''. However, as we demonstrate using a topic model, the phenomenological component of supersymmetry research has lost traction and the ability of supersymmetry to tie these subcultures together is now compromised. Our work supports that even fields with an initially strong sentiment of unity may eventually generate diverging research programs and demonstrates the fruitfulness of the notion of trading zones for informing quantitative approaches to scientific pluralism.

physics.hist-ph↗