arXiv subjects

Lucas Thil

Publications and source records attributed to Lucas Thil.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

STEP: Learning STructured Embeddings for Progressive Time Series

We present a novel method for learning interpretable representations of progressive time series, that is, data capturing irreversible state transitions such as degradation or task completion. Our approach uses a self-supervised contrastive objective to learn a low-dimensional latent space whose geometry is itself the interpretation: each observation becomes a point on a manifold anchored between two fixed orthogonal prototype vectors, and a trajectory becomes a path across that manifold. From this structure we read a latent compass, the polar coordinates ({\theta}, r) of the latent vector, in which {\theta} tracks the progression of the underlying state (e.g., from healthy to failed) and r identifies the active mode (e.g., the operating condition), without any proxy labels. We evaluate the approach against the state of the art on diverse domains, including industrial degradation, robotic tasks, and neural activity, validating three key capabilities: (1) end-state prediction, (2) multi-step forecasting, and (3) interpretable phase separation. Our method matches or improves over black-box counterparts on all of these while providing transparency about the underlying mechanisms. A simple linear regressor on top of the latent compass coordinates is competitive with deep architectures, direct quantitative evidence that the underlying state is encoded in a geometrically accessible form.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Subspace-Decomposed JEPAs: Disentangling Progression and Content in Latent World Models

Joint-Embedding Predictive Architectures (JEPAs) learn compact latent world models by predicting future embeddings, but no single coordinate of the latent is designated to encode task progression. We carve the JEPA latent into two orthogonal subspaces with disjoint roles: a low-dimensional progression subspace shaped by a cosine-margin triplet loss, and a high-dimensional content subspace regularised by the existing SIGReg objective of LeWM. We prove that the two anti-collapse forces act on disjoint coordinates, so they compose additively rather than competing on the same dimensions. Our method, SD-JEPA improves over the LeWM baseline on the majority of its control benchmarks at matched compute, and outperforms the strongest non-LeWM JEPA baseline on Push-T; a subspace-ablation falsifier confirms the split is the load-bearing ingredient. Beyond planning, the resulting 1-D angular progression coordinate functions as a scene-aware compass on the latent. It advances with task progress, regresses when the agent backtracks, and under controlled perturbations both spikes and relocalises to a semantically appropriate new task-phase sector, separating the moment of surprise from its meaning in a way that prediction-error scalars cannot. Three quantitative tests back this up: $|\Delta\theta_t|$ outperforms the standard latent-prediction-error surprise at localising semantic events on 40 held-out cube episodes by up to +0.18 pooled AUROC (97.5% per-episode win rate at $\pm 1$-step tolerance); a within-episode linear probe across all four environments (40 episodes per env) shows the 8-dimensional progression subspace (4.2% of the latent) explains 72-95% of task-progress variance..

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

A Machine Learning Framework for Turbofan Health Estimation via Inverse Problem Formulation

Estimating the health state of turbofan engines is a challenging ill-posed inverse problem, hindered by sparse sensing and complex nonlinear thermodynamics. Research in this area remains fragmented, with comparisons limited by the use of unrealistic datasets and insufficient exploration of the exploitation of temporal information. This work investigates how to recover component-level health indicators from operational sensor data under realistic degradation and maintenance patterns. To support this study, we introduce a new dataset that incorporates industry-oriented complexities such as maintenance events and usage changes. Using this dataset, we establish an initial benchmark that compares steady-state and nonstationary data-driven models, and Bayesian filters, classic families of methods used to solve this problem. In addition to this benchmark, we introduce self-supervised learning (SSL) approaches that learn latent representations without access to true health labels, a scenario reflective of real-world operational constraints. By comparing the downstream estimation performance of these unsupervised representations against the direct prediction baselines, we establish a practical lower bound on the difficulty of solving this inverse problem. Our results reveal that traditional filters remain strong baselines, while SSL methods reveal the intrinsic complexity of health estimation and highlight the need for more advanced and interpretable inference strategies. For reproducibility, both the generated dataset and the implementation used in this work are made accessible.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

I-GLIDE: Input Groups for Latent Health Indicators in Degradation Estimation

Accurate remaining useful life (RUL) prediction hinges on the quality of health indicators (HIs), yet existing methods often fail to disentangle complex degradation mechanisms in multi-sensor systems or quantify uncertainty in HI reliability. This paper introduces a novel framework for HI construction, advancing three key contributions. First, we adapt Reconstruction along Projected Pathways (RaPP) as a health indicator (HI) for RUL prediction for the first time, showing that it outperforms traditional reconstruction error metrics. Second, we show that augmenting RaPP-derived HIs with aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty quantification (UQ) via Monte Carlo dropout and probabilistic latent spaces- significantly improves RUL-prediction robustness. Third, and most critically, we propose indicator groups, a paradigm that isolates sensor subsets to model system-specific degradations, giving rise to our novel method, I-GLIDE which enables interpretable, mechanism-specific diagnostics. Evaluated on data sourced from aerospace and manufacturing systems, our approach achieves marked improvements in accuracy and generalizability compared to state-of-the-art HI methods while providing actionable insights into system failure pathways. This work bridges the gap between anomaly detection and prognostics, offering a principled framework for uncertainty-aware degradation modeling in complex systems.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Uncertainty Quantification as a Complementary Latent Health Indicator for Remaining Useful Life Prediction on Turbofan Engines

Health Indicators (HIs) are essential for predicting system failures in predictive maintenance. While methods like RaPP (Reconstruction along Projected Pathways) improve traditional HI approaches by leveraging autoencoder latent spaces, their performance can be hindered by both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties. In this paper, we propose a novel framework that integrates uncertainty quantification into autoencoder-based latent spaces, enhancing RaPP-generated HIs. We demonstrate that separating aleatoric uncertainty from epistemic uncertainty and cross combining HI information is the driver of accuracy improvements in Remaining Useful Life (RUL) prediction. Our method employs both standard and variational autoencoders to construct these HIs, which are then used to train a machine learning model for RUL prediction. Benchmarked on the NASA C-MAPSS turbofan dataset, our approach outperforms traditional HI-based methods and end-to-end RUL prediction models and is competitive with RUL estimation methods. These results underscore the importance of uncertainty quantification in health assessment and showcase its significant impact on predictive performance when incorporated into the HI construction process.

cs.PF↗