arXiv subjects

Lucas de Lara

Publications and source records attributed to Lucas de Lara.

8 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Liquid Democracy or Direct Democracy? One Theoretical Result and Two Experiments

Proponents of participatory democracy praise Liquid Democracy: decisions are taken by referendum, but voters delegate their votes freely. When better informed voters are present and the electorate is finite, we show theoretically that delegation can always strictly increase the probability of a correct decision. However, delegation must be used sparingly because it reduces the information aggregated through voting. In two different experiments -- a tightly controlled lab experiment and a perceptual task run online -- we find that subjects choose very high rates of delegation, and the theoretically possible improvements fail to materialize. The experimental evidence favors Direct Democracy, whether with or without abstention. We study the perceptual task, where signals' precisions are not known, both as a test of the robustness of the lab results and as an independent methodological contribution. We argue that tests under ambiguous information are valuable and under-used tools in studying collective decision-making.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2025

Canonical Representations of Markovian Structural Causal Models: A Framework for Counterfactual Reasoning

Counterfactual reasoning aims at answering contrary-to-fact questions like ``Would have Alice recovered had she taken aspirin?'' and corresponds to the most fine-grained layer of causation. Critically, while many counterfactual statements cannot be falsified-even by randomized experiments-they underpin fundamental concepts like individual-wise fairness. Therefore, providing models to formalize and implement counterfactual beliefs remains a fundamental scientific problem. In the Markovian setting of Pearl's causal framework, we propose an alternative approach to structural causal models to represent counterfactuals compatible with a given causal graphical model. More precisely, we introduce counterfactual models, also called canonical representations of structural causal models. They enable analysts to choose a counterfactual assumption via random-process probability distributions with preassigned marginals and characterize the counterfactual equivalence class of structural causal models. Using these representations, we present a normalization procedure to disentangle the (arbitrary and unfalsifiable) counterfactual choice from the (typically testable) interventional constraints. In contrast to structural causal models, this allows to implement many counterfactual assumptions while preserving interventional knowledge, and does not require any estimation step at the individual-counterfactual layer: only to make a choice. Finally, we illustrate the specific role of counterfactuals in causality and the benefits of our approach on theoretical and numerical examples.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

On the Nonconvexity of Push-Forward Constraints and Its Consequences in Machine Learning

The push-forward operation enables one to redistribute a probability measure through a deterministic map. It plays a key role in statistics and optimization: many learning problems (notably from optimal transport, generative modeling, and algorithmic fairness) include constraints or penalties framed as push-forward conditions on the model. However, the literature lacks general theoretical insights on the (non)convexity of such constraints and its consequences on the associated learning problems. This paper aims at filling this gap. In the first part, we provide a range of sufficient and necessary conditions for the (non)convexity of two sets of functions: the maps transporting one probability measure to another and the maps inducing equal output distributions across distinct probability measures. This highlights that for most probability measures, these push-forward constraints are not convex. In the second part, we show how this result implies critical limitations on the design of convex optimization problems for learning generative models or groupwise fair predictors. This work will hopefully help researchers and practitioners have a better understanding of the critical impact of push-forward conditions onto convexity.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

A clarification on the links between potential outcomes and do-interventions

Most of the scientific literature on causal modeling considers the structural framework of Pearl and the potential-outcome framework of Rubin to be formally equivalent, and therefore interchangeably uses do-interventions and the potential-outcome subscript notation to write counterfactual outcomes. In this paper, we agnostically superimpose the two causal models to specify under which mathematical conditions structural counterfactual outcomes and potential outcomes need to, do not need to, can, or cannot be equal (almost surely or law). Our comparison reminds that a structural causal model and a Rubin causal model compatible with the same observations do not have to coincide, and highlights real-world problems where they even cannot correspond. Then, we examine common claims and practices from the causal-inference literature in the light of these results. In doing so, we aim at clarifying the relationship between the two causal frameworks, and the interpretation of their respective counterfactuals.

math.ST↗

arXiv2023

Transport-based Counterfactual Models

Counterfactual frameworks have grown popular in machine learning for both explaining algorithmic decisions but also defining individual notions of fairness, more intuitive than typical group fairness conditions. However, state-of-the-art models to compute counterfactuals are either unrealistic or unfeasible. In particular, while Pearl's causal inference provides appealing rules to calculate counterfactuals, it relies on a model that is unknown and hard to discover in practice. We address the problem of designing realistic and feasible counterfactuals in the absence of a causal model. We define transport-based counterfactual models as collections of joint probability distributions between observable distributions, and show their connection to causal counterfactuals. More specifically, we argue that optimal-transport theory defines relevant transport-based counterfactual models, as they are numerically feasible, statistically-faithful, and can coincide under some assumptions with causal counterfactual models. Finally, these models make counterfactual approaches to fairness feasible, and we illustrate their practicality and efficiency on fair learning. With this paper, we aim at laying out the theoretical foundations for a new, implementable approach to counterfactual thinking.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2022

Diffeomorphic Registration using Sinkhorn Divergences

The diffeomorphic registration framework enables to define an optimal matching function between two probability measures with respect to a data-fidelity loss function. The non convexity of the optimization problem renders the choice of this loss function crucial to avoid poor local minima. Recent work showed experimentally the efficiency of entropy-regularized optimal transportation costs, as they are computationally fast and differentiable while having few minima. Following this approach, we provide in this paper a new framework based on Sinkhorn divergences, unbiased entropic optimal transportation costs, and prove the statistical consistency with rate of the empirical optimal deformations.

math.ST↗

arXiv2022

GAN Estimation of Lipschitz Optimal Transport Maps

This paper introduces the first statistically consistent estimator of the optimal transport map between two probability distributions, based on neural networks. Building on theoretical and practical advances in the field of Lipschitz neural networks, we define a Lipschitz-constrained generative adversarial network penalized by the quadratic transportation cost. Then, we demonstrate that, under regularity assumptions, the obtained generator converges uniformly to the optimal transport map as the sample size increases to infinity. Furthermore, we show through a number of numerical experiments that the learnt mapping has promising performances. In contrast to previous work tackling either statistical guarantees or practicality, we provide an expressive and feasible estimator which paves way for optimal transport applications where the asymptotic behaviour must be certified.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2021

A Consistent Extension of Discrete Optimal Transport Maps for Machine Learning Applications

Optimal transport maps define a one-to-one correspondence between probability distributions, and as such have grown popular for machine learning applications. However, these maps are generally defined on empirical observations and cannot be generalized to new samples while preserving asymptotic properties. We extend a novel method to learn a consistent estimator of a continuous optimal transport map from two empirical distributions. The consequences of this work are two-fold: first, it enables to extend the transport plan to new observations without computing again the discrete optimal transport map; second, it provides statistical guarantees to machine learning applications of optimal transport. We illustrate the strength of this approach by deriving a consistent framework for transport-based counterfactual explanations in fairness.

math.ST↗