arXiv subjects

Lucia Caramellino

Publications and source records attributed to Lucia Caramellino.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Pricing options on illiquid assets using liquid market benchmarks: an application to energy markets

The Gasoil options market is illiquid, making it difficult to construct its implied volatility surface directly. However, it is closely linked to the highly liquid Brent options market. In this paper, we jointly model Brent and Gasoil futures prices through a correlated Bachelier local volatility model: the Brent factor is described by a normal mixture diffusion model, while the Gasoil-Brent spot volatility spread is estimated using a data-driven procedure that identifies clusters of historical crack-spread levels and Gasoil-Brent volatility spreads. The resulting bivariate model allows us to compute an implied volatility correction that maps Brent implied volatilities to Gasoil implied volatilities without using illiquid Gasoil option prices as inputs. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that the resulting implied volatilities closely match observed Gasoil implied volatilities when benchmarked against more direct approaches. These results suggest that the proposed framework is well suited for modeling refined products and pricing the corresponding financial derivatives.

q-fin.CP↗

arXiv2026

Ergodic approximation for the invariant distribution: An abstract framework for law-dependent dynamics

This paper studies the approximation of invariant distributions for a broad class of law-dependent dynamics, including McKean-Vlasov stochastic differential equations and Boltzmann-type equations. We consider discrete-time approximation schemes with decreasing time steps and analyse the convergence of their associated ergodic (or occupation) measure towards the invariant distribution of the underlying continuous-time process. Under a general coupling assumption, we prove convergence in the expected $p$-Wasserstein distance ($p \ge 1$) and derive explicit convergence rates. Our approach combines estimates on ergodic averages, regularization techniques for discrete measures, and a generalized discrete Gronwall lemma to control the error between the self-interacting scheme and the target invariant measure. We show that our framework applies to a wide range of models: McKean-Vlasov SDEs, a Boltzmann type equation, and a neuronal model.

math.PR↗

arXiv2024

Stochastic sewing lemma on Wasserstein space

The stochastic sewing lemma recently introduced by Le~(2020) allows to construct a unique limit process from a doubly indexed stochastic process that satisfies some regularity. This lemma is stated in a given probability space on which these processes are defined. The present paper develops a version of this lemma for probability measures: from a doubly indexed family of maps on the set of probability measures that have a suitable probabilistic representation, we are able to construct a limit flow of maps on the probability measures. This result complements and improves the existing result coming from the classical sewing lemma. It is applied to the case of law-dependent jump SDEs for which we obtain weak existence result as well as the uniqueness of the marginal laws.

math.PR↗

arXiv2024

Fokker-Planck equations on homogeneous Lie groups and probabilistic counterparts

We address the well-posedness of subelliptic Fokker-Planck equations arising from stochastic control problems, as well as the properties of the associated diffusion processes. Here, the main difficulty arises from the possible polynomial growth of the coefficients, which is related to the growth of the family of vector fields generating the first layer of the associated Lie algebra. We prove the existence and uniqueness of the energy solution, and its representation as the transition density of the underlying subelliptic diffusion process. Moreover, we show its Holder continuity in time w.r.t.the Fortet-Mourier distance, where the Holder seminorm depends on the degree of homogeneity of the vector fields. Finally, we provide a probabilistic proof of the Feyman-Kac formula, as a consequence of the uniform boundedness in finite time intervals of all moments.

math.AP↗

arXiv2023

Convergence in Total Variation for nonlinear functionals of random hyperspherical harmonics

Random hyperspherical harmonics are Gaussian Laplace eigenfunctions on the unit $d$-dimensional sphere ($d\ge 2$). We study the convergence in Total Variation distance for their nonlinear statistics in the high energy limit, i.e., for diverging sequences of Laplace eigenvalues. Our approach takes advantage of a recent result by Bally, Caramellino and Poly (2020): combining the Central Limit Theorem in Wasserstein distance obtained by Marinucci and Rossi (2015) for Hermite-rank $2$ functionals with new results on the asymptotic behavior of their Malliavin-Sobolev norms, we are able to establish second order Gaussian fluctuations in this stronger probability metric as soon as the functional is regular enough. Our argument requires some novel estimates on moments of products of Gegenbauer polynomials that may be of independent interest, which we prove via the link between graph theory and diagram formulas.

math.PR↗

arXiv2022

Transfer of regularity for Markov semigroups

We study the regularity of a Markov semigroup $(P_t)_{t>0}$, that is, when $P_t(x,dy)=p_t(x,y)dy$ for a suitable smooth function $p_t(x,y)$. This is done by transferring the regularity from an approximating Markov semigroup sequence $(P^n_t)_{t>0}$, $n\in\mathbb{N}$, whose associated densities $p^n_t(x,y)$ are smooth and can blow up as $n\to\infty$. We use an interpolation type result and we show that if there exists a good equilibrium between the blow up and the speed of convergence, then $P_{t}(x,dy)=p_{t}(x,y)dy$ and $p_{t}$ has some regularity properties.

math.PR↗

arXiv2020

Convergence rate of Markov chains and hybrid numerical schemes to jump-diffusions with application to the Bates model

We study the rate of weak convergence of Markov chains to diffusion processes under suitable but quite general assumptions. We give an example in the financial framework, applying the convergence analysis to a multiple jumps tree approximation of the CIR process. Then, we combine the Markov chain approach with other numerical techniques in order to handle the different components in jump-diffusion coupled models. We study the speed of convergence of this hybrid approach and we provide an example in finance, applying our results to a tree-finite difference approximation in the Heston or Bates model.

math.PR↗

arXiv2019

Numerical stability of a hybrid method for pricing options

We develop and study stability properties of a hybrid approximation of functionals of the Bates jump model with stochastic interest rate that uses a tree method in the direction of the volatility and the interest rate and a finite-difference approach in order to handle the underlying asset price process. We also propose hybrid simulations for the model, following a binomial tree in the direction of both the volatility and the interest rate, and a space-continuous approximation for the underlying asset price process coming from a Euler-Maruyama type scheme. We show that our methods allow to obtain efficient and accurate European and American option prices. Numerical experiments are provided, and show the reliability and the efficiency of the algorithms.

q-fin.CP↗

arXiv2019

Regularization lemmas and convergence in total variation

We provide a simple abstract formalism of integration by parts under which we obtain some regularization lemmas. These lemmas apply to any sequence of random variables $(F_n)$ which are smooth and non-degenerated in some sense and enable one to upgrade the distance of convergence from smooth Wasserstein distances to total variation in a quantitative way. This is a well studied topic and one can consult for instance Bally and Caramellino [Electron. J. Probab. 2014], Bogachev, Kosov and Zelenov [Trans. Amer. Math. Soc. 2018], Hu, Lu and Nualart [J. Funct. Anal. 2014], Nourdin and Poly [Stoch. Proc. Appl. 2013] and the references therein for an overview of this issue. Each of the aforementioned references share the fact that some non-degeneracy is required along the whole sequence. We provide here the first result removing this costly assumption as we require only non-degeneracy at the limit. The price to pay is to control the smooth Wasserstein distance between the Malliavin matrix of the sequence and the Malliavin matrix of the limit which is particularly easy in the context of Gaussian limit as their Malliavin matrix is deterministic. We then recover, in a slightly weaker form, the main findings of Nourdin, Peccati and Swan [J. Funct. Anal. 2014]. Another application concerns the approximation of the semi-group of a diffusion process by the Euler scheme in a quantitative way and under the Hörmander condition.

math.PR↗

arXiv2017

Convergence in distribution norms in the CLT for non identical distributed random variables

We study the convergence in distribution norms in the Central Limit Theorem for non identical distributed random variables that is $$ \varepsilon_{n}(f):={\mathbb{E}}\Big(f\Big(\frac 1{\sqrt n}\sum_{i=1}^{n}Z_{i}\Big)\Big)-{\mathbb{E}}\big(f(G)\big)\rightarrow 0 $$ where $Z_{i}$ are centred independent random variables and $G$ is a Gaussian random variable. We also consider local developments (Edgeworth expansion). This kind of results is well understood in the case of smooth test functions $f$. If one deals with measurable and bounded test functions (convergence in total variation distance), a well known theorem due to Prohorov shows that some regularity condition for the law of the random variables $Z_{i}$, $i\in {\mathbb{N}}$, on hand is needed. Essentially, one needs that the law of $ Z_{i}$ is locally lower bounded by the Lebesgue measure (Doeblin's condition). This topic is also widely discussed in the literature. Our main contribution is to discuss convergence in distribution norms, that is to replace the test function $f$ by some derivative $\partial_{α}f$ and to obtain upper bounds for $\varepsilon_{n}(\partial_{α}f)$ in terms of the infinite norm of $f$. Some applications are also discussed: an invariance principle for the occupation time for random walks, small balls estimates and expected value of the number of roots of trigonometric polynomials with random coefficients.

math.PR↗

arXiv2017

Non universality for the variance of the number of real roots of random trigonometric polynomials

In this article, we consider the following family of random trigonometric polynomials $p_n(t,Y)=\sum_{k=1}^n Y_{k,1} \cos(kt)+Y_{k,2}\sin(kt)$ for a given sequence of i.i.d. random variables $\{Y_{k,1},Y_{k,2}\}_{k\ge 1}$ which are centered and standardized. We set $\mathcal{N}([0,π],Y)$ the number of real roots over $[0,π]$ and $\mathcal{N}([0,π],G)$ the corresponding quantity when the coefficients follow a standard Gaussian distribution. We prove under a Doeblin's condition on the distribution of the coefficients that $$ \lim_{n\to\infty}\frac{\text{Var}\left(\mathcal{N}_n([0,π],Y)\right)}{n} =\lim_{n\to\infty}\frac{\text{Var}\left(\mathcal{N}_n([0,π],G)\right)}{n} +\frac{1}{30}\left(\mathbb{E}(Y_{1,1}^4)-3\right). $$ The latter establishes that the behavior of the variance is not universal and depends on the distribution of the underlying coefficients through their kurtosis. Actually, a more general result is proven in this article, which does not require that the coefficients are identically distributed. The proof mixes a recent result regarding Edgeworth's expansions for distribution norms established in arXiv:1606.01629 with the celebrated Kac-Rice formula.

math.PR↗

arXiv2017

A hybrid approach for the implementation of the Heston model

We propose a hybrid tree-finite difference method in order to approximate the Heston model. We prove the convergence by embedding the procedure in a bivariate Markov chain and we study the convergence of European and American option prices. We finally provide numerical experiments that give accurate option prices in the Heston model, showing the reliability and the efficiency of the algorithm.

q-fin.CP↗

arXiv2017

Total variation distance between stochastic polynomials and invariance principles

The goal of this paper is to estimate the total variation distance between two general stochastic polynomials. As a consequence one obtains an invariance principle for such polynomials. This generalizes known results concerning the total variation distance between two multiple stochastic integrals on one hand, and invariance principles in Kolmogorov distance for multi-linear stochastic polynomials on the other hand. As an application we first discuss the asymptotic behavior of U-statistics associated to polynomial kernels. Moreover we also give an example of CLT associated to quadratic forms.

math.PR↗

arXiv2016

Diffusions under a local strong Hörmander condition. Part II: tube estimates

We study lower and upper bounds for the probability that a diffusion process in $\mathbb{R}^n$ remains in a tube around a skeleton path up to a fixed time. We assume that the diffusion coefficients $σ_1,\ldots,σ_d$ may degenerate but they satisfy a strong Hörmander condition involving the first order Lie brackets around the skeleton of interest. The tube is written in terms of a norm which accounts for the non-isotropic structure of the problem: in a small time $δ$, the diffusion process propagates with speed $\sqrtδ$ in the direction of the diffusion vector fields $σ_{j}$ and with speed $δ=\sqrtδ\times \sqrtδ$ in the direction of $[σ_{i},σ_{j}]$. The proof consists in a concatenation technique which strongly uses the lower and upper bounds for the density proved in the part I.

math.PR↗

arXiv2016

Diffusions under a local strong Hörmander condition. Part I: density estimates

We study lower and upper bounds for the density of a diffusion process in ${\mathbb{R}}^n$ in a small (but not asymptotic) time, say $δ$. We assume that the diffusion coefficients $σ_1,\ldots,σ_d$ may degenerate at the starting time $0$ and point $x_0$ but they satisfy a strong Hörmander condition involving the first order Lie brackets. The density estimates are written in terms of a norm which accounts for the non-isotropic structure of the problem: in a small time $δ$, the diffusion process propagates with speed $\sqrtδ$ in the direction of the diffusion vector fields $σ_{j}$ and with speed $δ=\sqrtδ\times \sqrtδ$ in the direction of $[σ_{i},σ_{j}]$. In the second part of this paper, such estimates will be used in order to study lower and upper bounds for the probability that the diffusion process remains in a tube around a skeleton path up to a fixed time.

math.PR↗

arXiv2016

An Invariance Principle for Stochastic Series II. Non Gaussian Limits

We study the convergence in total variation distance for series of the form $$ S_{N}(c,Z)=\sum_{l=1}^{N}\sum_{i_{1}<\cdots<i_{l}}c(i_{1},...,i_{l})Z_{i_{1}}\cdots Z_{i_{l}}, $$ where $Z_{k},k\in {\mathbb{N}}$ are independent centered random variables with ${\mathbb{E}}(Z_{k}^{2})=1$. This enters in the framework of the $U$--statistics theory which plays a major role in modern statistic. In the case when $Z_{k},k\in {\mathbb{N}}$ are standard normal, $S_{N}(c,Z)$ is an element of the sum of the first $N$ Wiener chaoses and, starting with the seminal paper of D. Nualart and G. Peccati, the convergence of such functionals to the Gaussian law has been extensively studied. So the interesting point consists in studying invariance principles, that is, to replace Gaussian random variables with random variables with a general law. This has been done in several papers using the Fortet--Mourier distance, the Kolmogorov distance or the total variance distance. In particular, estimates of the total variance distance in terms of the fourth order cumulants has been given in the part I (Gaussian limits) of the present paper. But, as the celebrated Fourth Moment Theorem of Nualart and Peccati shows, such estimates are pertinent to deal with Gaussian limits. In the present paper we study the convergence to general limits which may be non Gaussian, and then the estimates of the error has to be done in terms of the low influence factor only.

math.PR↗

arXiv2016

Asymptotic development for the CLT in total variation distance

The aim of this paper is to study the asymptotic expansion in total variation in the Central Limit Theorem when the law of the basic random variable is locally lower-bounded by the Lebesgue measure (or equivalently, has an absolutely continuous component): we develop the error in powers of $n^{-1/2}$ and give an explicit formula for the approximating measure.

math.PR↗

arXiv2015

An invariance principle for stochastic series I. Gaussian limits

We study invariance principles and convergence to a Gaussian limit for stochastic series of the form $S(c,Z)=\sum_{m=1}^{\infty }\sum_{α_{1}<...<α_{m}}c(α_{1},...,α_{m})\prod_{i=1}^{m}Z_{α_{i}}$ where $Z_{k}$, $k\in \mathbb{N}$, is a sequence of centred independent random variables of unit variance. In the case when the $Z_{k}$'s are Gaussian, $S(c,Z)$ is an element of the Wiener chaos and convergence to a Gaussian limit (so the corresponding nonlinear CLT) has been intensively studied by Nualart, Peccati, Nourdin and several other authors. The invariance principle consists in taking $Z_{k}$ with a general law. It has also been considered in the literature, starting from the seminal papers of Jong, and a variety of applications including $U$-statistics are of interest. Our main contribution is to study the convergence in total variation distance and to give estimates of the error.

math.PR↗