arXiv subjects

Luciano Alves de Oliveira

Publications and source records attributed to Luciano Alves de Oliveira.

2 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Forecast lead time and the timing of crew deployment for weather-driven power outages using AI weather models

Utilities request mutual aid crews to restore power after severe storms, and requesting early secures more crews but relies on less accurate forecasts. We examined how forecast lead time affects the value of outage predictions for crew deployment, using operational forecasts from two AI weather models, GraphCast and FourCastNet, to predict outage occurrence for counties across the contiguous United States 24 to 120 hours ahead. Forecasts were evaluated by the share of outage burden captured by the counties where crews would be staged. Captured burden declined with lead time: the loss between three and five days was significant in all analyses, whereas the loss within three days was significant only for outages that had not yet started. Early deployment with all requested crews outperformed late deployment with fewer, and we report the availability ratio at which the two break even. Antecedent land surface predictors computed at forecast valid time include weather from the forecast period, which inflates their skill by 42 to 53% and reverses their apparent advantage over forecast meteorology at long lead times. Computed correctly, they improved occurrence skill by 17.5% at 24 hours but did not significantly change captured burden, a gap that attribution analysis linked to their static component. Prediction intervals covered only 0.476 of tropical cyclone events against a nominal 0.90. Calibration by hazard class corrected most of this shortfall at an 11% cost in interval width, as a diagnostic only, because hazard class is known only after the event.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2026

GenONet: A Generative operator Network for High-Resolution Precipitation Nowcasting

High-resolution precipitation nowcasting is critical for reducing the impacts of severe weather but remains difficult because of rapid storm evolution. Deep learning models have shown great promise for this task, but their predictive skill often deteriorates over longer forecast horizons. This leads to increasingly blurry forecasts that fail to capture the complex, non-linear evolution of storm systems. In order to address these limitations, we introduce Spatio-Temporal U-DeepONet (GenONet), a novel architecture for long-range precipitation forecasting up to 3 hours, specifically designed to produce sharp and physically consistent results. GenONet's architecture pioneers the use of a Deep Operator Network (DeepONet) as a generator within a Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) framework for this task. The DeepONet learns the continuous-time dynamics of precipitation, ensuring stability over long forecast horizons. Adversial training against a spatio-temporal discriminator compels the model to produce sharp, coherent forecasts, while a physics-informed loss regularizer, derived from the Moisture Conservation Equation, improves physical plausibility in our ablation setting. Quantitative evaluations show that our model achieves consistently higher scores on most of the metrics, especially for highintensity events and at longer lead times. Qualitatively, GenONet produces structurally coherent forecasts that maintain their integrity, whereas baseline models degrade into indistinct patterns. Finally, an ablation study confirms the benefit of this physics-informed loss, highlighting the strength of combining operator learning with adversarial training.

cs.LG↗