arXiv subjects

Luciano Campi

Publications and source records attributed to Luciano Campi.

32 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2019

Nonzero-sum stochastic differential games between an impulse controller and a stopper

We study a two-player nonzero-sum stochastic differential game where one player controls the state variable via additive impulses while the other player can stop the game at any time. The main goal of this work is characterize Nash equilibria through a verification theorem, which identifies a new system of quasi-variational inequalities whose solution gives equilibrium payoffs with the correspondent strategies. Moreover, we apply the verification theorem to a game with a one-dimensional state variable, evolving as a scaled Brownian motion, and with linear payoff and costs for both players. Two types of Nash equilibrium are fully characterized, i.e. semi-explicit expressions for the equilibrium strategies and associated payoffs are provided. Both equilibria are of threshold type: in one equilibrium players' intervention are not simultaneous, while in the other one the first player induces her competitor to stop the game. Finally, we provide some numerical results describing the qualitative properties of both types of equilibrium.

math.PR↗

arXiv2019

On the support of extremal martingale measures with given marginals: the countable case

We investigate the supports of extremal martingale measures with pre-specified marginals in a two-period setting. First, we establish in full generality the equivalence between the extremality of a given measure $Q$ and the denseness in $L^1(Q)$ of a suitable linear subspace, which can be seen in a financial context as the set of all semi-static trading strategies. Moreover, when the supports of both marginals are countable, we focus on the slightly stronger notion of weak exact predictable representation property (henceforth, WEP) and provide two combinatorial sufficient conditions, called "2-link property" and "full erasability", on how the points in the supports are linked to each other for granting extremality. When the support of the first marginal is a finite set, we give a necessary and sufficient condition for the WEP to hold in terms of the new concepts of $2$-net and deadlock. Finally, we study the relation between cycles and extremality.

math.PR↗

arXiv2018

Nonzero-sum stochastic differential games with impulse controls: a verification theorem with applications

We consider a general nonzero-sum impulse game with two players. The main mathematical contribution of the paper is a verification theorem which provides, under some regularity conditions, a suitable system of quasi-variational inequalities for the value functions and the optimal strategies of the two players. As an application, we study an impulse game with a one-dimensional state variable, following a real-valued scaled Brownian motion, and two players with linear and symmetric running payoffs. We fully characterize a Nash equilibrium and provide explicit expressions for the optimal strategies and the value functions. We also prove some asymptotic results with respect to the intervention costs. Finally, we consider two further non-symmetric examples where a Nash equilibrium is found numerically.

math.PR↗

arXiv2018

$\varepsilon$-Nash equilibrium in stochastic differential games with mean-field interaction and controlled jumps

We consider a symmetric $n$-player nonzero-sum stochastic differential game with controlled jumps and mean-field type interaction among the players. Each player minimizes some expected cost by affecting the drift as well as the jump part of their own private state process. We consider the corresponding limiting mean-field game and, under the assumption that the latter admits a regular Markovian solution, we prove that an approximate Nash equilibrium for the $n$-player game can be constructed for $n$ large enough, and provide the rate of convergence. This extends to a class of games with controlled jumps classical results in mean-field game literature. This paper complements our previous work, where in particular the existence of a mean-field game solution was investigated.

math.PR↗

arXiv2018

On the spot-futures no-arbitrage relations in commodity markets

In commodity markets the convergence of futures towards spot prices, at the expiration of the contract, is usually justified by no-arbitrage arguments. In this article, we propose an alternative approach that relies on the expected profit maximization problem of an agent, producing and storing a commodity while trading in the associated futures contracts. In this framework, the relation between the spot and the futures prices holds through the well-posedness of the maximization problem. We show that the futures price can still be seen as the risk-neutral expectation of the spot price at maturity and we propose an explicit formula for the forward volatility. Moreover, we provide an heuristic analysis of the optimal solution for the production/storage/trading problem, in a Markovian setting. This approach is particularly interesting in the case of energy commodities, like electricity: this framework indeed remains suitable for commodities characterized by storability constraints, when standard no-arbitrage arguments cannot be safely applied.

q-fin.MF↗

arXiv2017

$N$-player games and mean field games with absorption

We introduce a simple class of mean field games with absorbing boundary over a finite time horizon. In the corresponding $N$-player games, the evolution of players' states is described by a system of weakly interacting Itô equations with absorption on first exit from a bounded open set. Once a player exits, her/his contribution is removed from the empirical measure of the system. Players thus interact through a renormalized empirical measure. In the definition of solution to the mean field game, the renormalization appears in form of a conditional law. We justify our definition of solution in the usual way, that is, by showing that a solution of the mean field game induces approximate Nash equilibria for the $N$-player games with approximation error tending to zero as $N$ tends to infinity. This convergence is established provided the diffusion coefficient is non-degenerate. The degenerate case is more delicate and gives rise to counter-examples.

math.PR↗

arXiv2016

Change of numeraire in the two-marginals martingale transport problem

In this paper we apply change of numeraire techniques to the optimal transport approach for computing model-free prices of derivatives in a two periods model. In particular, we consider the optimal transport plan constructed in \cite{HobsonKlimmek2013} as well as the one introduced in \cite{BeiglJuil} and further studied in \cite{BrenierMartingale}. We show that, in the case of positive martingales, a suitable change of numeraire applied to \cite{HobsonKlimmek2013} exchanges forward start straddles of type I and type II, so that the optimal transport plan in the subhedging problems is the same for both types of options. Moreover, for \cite{BrenierMartingale}'s construction, the right monotone transference plan can be viewed as a mirror coupling of its left counterpart under the change of numeraire. An application to stochastic volatility models is also provided.

math.PR↗

arXiv2016

Utility indifference pricing and hedging for structured contracts in energy markets

In this paper we study the pricing and hedging of structured products in energy markets, such as swing and virtual gas storage, using the exponential utility indifference pricing approach in a general incomplete multivariate market model driven by finitely many stochastic factors. The buyer of such contracts is allowed to trade in the forward market in order to hedge the risk of his position. We fully characterize the buyer's utility indifference price of a given product in terms of continuous viscosity solutions of suitable nonlinear PDEs. This gives a way to identify reasonable candidates for the optimal exercise strategy for the structured product as well as for the corresponding hedging strategy. Moreover, in a model with two correlated assets, one traded and one nontraded, we obtain a representation of the price as the value function of an auxiliary simpler optimization problem under a risk neutral probability, that can be viewed as a perturbation of the minimal entropy martingale measure. Finally, numerical results are provided.

q-fin.MF↗

arXiv2013

Utility indifference valuation for non-smooth payoffs with an application to power derivatives

We consider the problem of exponential utility indifference valuation under the simplified framework where traded and nontraded assets are uncorrelated but where the claim to be priced possibly depends on both. Traded asset prices follow a multivariate Black and Scholes model, while nontraded asset prices evolve as generalized Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes. We provide a BSDE characterization of the utility indifference price (UIP) for a large class of non-smooth, possibly unbounded, payoffs depending simultaneously on both classes of assets. Focusing then on European claims and using the Gaussian structure of the model allows us to employ some BSDE techniques (in particular, a Malliavin-type representation theorem due to Ma (2002)) to prove the regularity of Z and to characterize the UIP for possibly discontinuous European payoffs as a viscosity solution of a suitable PDE with continuous space derivatives. The optimal hedging strategy is also identified essentially as the delta hedging strategy corresponding to the UIP. Since there are no closed-form formulas in general, we also obtain asymptotic expansions for prices and hedging strategies when the risk aversion parameter is small. Finally, our results are applied to pricing and hedging power derivatives in various structural models for energy markets.

q-fin.PR↗

arXiv2013

Explicit construction of a dynamic Bessel bridge of dimension 3

Given a deterministically time-changed Brownian motion $Z$ starting from 1, whose time-change $V(t)$ satisfies $V(t) > t$ for all $t > 0$, we perform an explicit construction of a process $X$ which is Brownian motion in its own filtration and that hits zero for the first time at $V(τ)$, where $τ:= \inf\{t>0: Z_t =0\}$. We also provide the semimartingale decomposition of $X$ under the filtration jointly generated by $X$ and $Z$. Our construction relies on a combination of enlargement of filtration and filtering techniques. The resulting process $X$ may be viewed as the analogue of a 3-dimensional Bessel bridge starting from 1 at time 0 and ending at 0 at the random time $V(τ)$. We call this {\em a dynamic Bessel bridge} since $V(τ)$ is not known in advance. Our study is motivated by insider trading models with default risk, where the insider observes the firm's value continuously on time.

math.PR↗

arXiv2013

On the Existence of Shadow Prices

For utility maximization problems under proportional transaction costs, it has been observed that the original market with transaction costs can sometimes be replaced by a frictionless "shadow market" that yields the same optimal strategy and utility. However, the question of whether or not this indeed holds in generality has remained elusive so far. In this paper we present a counterexample which shows that shadow prices may fail to exist. On the other hand, we prove that short selling constraints are a sufficient condition to warrant their existence, even in very general multi-currency market models with possibly discontinuous bid-ask-spreads.

q-fin.PM↗

arXiv2012

A probabilistic numerical method for optimal multiple switching problem and application to investments in electricity generation

In this paper, we present a probabilistic numerical algorithm combining dynamic programming, Monte Carlo simulations and local basis regressions to solve non-stationary optimal multiple switching problems in infinite horizon. We provide the rate of convergence of the method in terms of the time step used to discretize the problem, of the size of the local hypercubes involved in the regressions, and of the truncating time horizon. To make the method viable for problems in high dimension and long time horizon, we extend a memory reduction method to the general Euler scheme, so that, when performing the numerical resolution, the storage of the Monte Carlo simulation paths is not needed. Then, we apply this algorithm to a model of optimal investment in power plants. This model takes into account electricity demand, cointegrated fuel prices, carbon price and random outages of power plants. It computes the optimal level of investment in each generation technology, considered as a whole, w.r.t. the electricity spot price. This electricity price is itself built according to a new extended structural model. In particular, it is a function of several factors, among which the installed capacities. The evolution of the optimal generation mix is illustrated on a realistic numerical problem in dimension eight, i.e. with two different technologies and six random factors.

math.NA↗

arXiv2012

Dynamic Markov bridges motivated by models of insider trading

Given a Markovian Brownian martingale $Z$, we build a process $X$ which is a martingale in its own filtration and satisfies $X_1 = Z_1$. We call $X$ a dynamic bridge, because its terminal value $Z_1$ is not known in advance. We compute explicitly its semimartingale decomposition under both its own filtration $\cF^X$ and the filtration $\cF^{X,Z}$ jointly generated by $X$ and $Z$. Our construction is heavily based on parabolic PDE's and filtering techniques. As an application, we explicitly solve an equilibrium model with insider trading, that can be viewed as a non-Gaussian generalization of Back and Pedersen's \cite{BP}, where insider's additional information evolves over time.

math.PR↗

arXiv2009

Multivariate utility maximization with proportional transaction costs

We present an optimal investment theorem for a currency exchange model with random and possibly discontinuous proportional transaction costs. The investor's preferences are represented by a multivariate utility function, allowing for simultaneous consumption of any prescribed selection of the currencies at a given terminal date. We prove the existence of an optimal portfolio process under the assumption of asymptotic satiability of the value function. Sufficient conditions for asymptotic satiability of the value function include reasonable asymptotic elasticity of the utility function, or a growth condition on its dual function. We show that the portfolio optimization problem can be reformulated in terms of maximization of a terminal liquidation utility function, and that both problems have a common optimizer.

math.PR↗