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Lucy Hogarth

Publications and source records attributed to Lucy Hogarth.

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GAIA Cepheid parallaxes and 'Local Hole' relieve $H_0$ tension

There is an $\approx9\pm2.5$\% tension between the value of Hubble's Constant, $H_0=67.4\pm0.5$km\,s$^{-1}$Mpc$^{-1}$, implied by the {\it Planck} microwave background power spectrum and that given by the distance scale of $H_0=73.4\pm1.7$km\,s$^{-1}$Mpc$^{-1}$. But with a plausible assumption about a {\it Gaia} DR2 parallax systematic offset, we find that {\it Gaia} parallax distances of Milky Way Cepheid calibrators are $\approx12-15$\% longer than previously estimated. Similarly, {\it Gaia} also implies $\approx4.7\pm1.7$\% longer distances for 46 Cepheids than previous distances on the scale of Riess et al. Then we show that the existence of an $\approx150$h$^{-1}$Mpc `Local Hole' in the galaxy distribution implies an outflow of $\approx500$km\,s$^{-1}$. Accounting for this in the recession velocities of SNIa standard candles out to $z\approx0.15$ reduces $H_0$ by a further $\approx1.8$\%. Combining the above two results would reduce the distance scale $H_0$ estimate by $\approx7$\% from $H_0\approx73.4\pm1.7$ to $\approx68.9\pm1.6$ km\,s$^{-1}$Mpc$^{-1}$, in reasonable agreement with the {\it Planck} value. We conclude that the discrepancy between distance scale and {\it Planck} $H_0$ measurements remains unconfirmed due to uncertainties caused by {\it Gaia} systematics and an unexpectedly inhomogeneous local galaxy distribution.

astro-ph.CO

$H_0$ Tension: Response to Riess et al arXiv:1810.03526

Riess et al (2018c) have claimed there exist seven problems in the analyses presented by Shanks et al (2018) where we argue that there is enough uncertainty in Cepheid distances and local peculiar velocity fields to explain the current tension in $H_0$. Here, we take each of the Riess et al (2018c) points in turn and suggest that either they do not apply or that the necessary caveats are already made by Shanks et al (2018). We conclude that the main point to be inferred from our analyses still stands which is that previous claims by Riess et al (2018b) that Gaia parallaxes confirm their Cepheid scale are, at best, premature in advance of further improvements in the Gaia astrometric solution.

astro-ph.CO