arXiv subjects

Luis E C Rocha

Publications and source records attributed to Luis E C Rocha.

12 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Beyond Trade Openness: Network-Based Evidence on African Economic Integration

This paper develops a network-based methodology for measuring economic integration in Africa. Conventional indicators such as trade openness and intra-regional trade shares capture the volume of trade but not countries' structural roles within the continental trade system. Using bilateral intra-African trade data for 2000-2019, we construct annual directed trade networks and measure countries' direct connectivity, recursive influence, brokerage role, and core embeddedness using weighted degree, PageRank, betweenness and random-walk betweenness, clustering, and k-core network indicators. We further benchmark observed network positions against a maximum-entropy null model to identify countries whose centrality exceeds that expected from their trade intensity alone. The results show a gradual densification of intra-African trade and the persistence of a core-periphery structure led by a small group of highly connected economies. Dynamic panel estimates indicate that economic development, infrastructure, institutional quality, human capital, regional trade agreements, and FDI are associated with stronger structural integration, whereas trade costs and overlapping regional memberships weaken several dimensions of network position. The findings suggest that African integration depends not only on expanding trade volumes but also on improving countries' positions within continental trade.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2025

Detection of anomalies in cow activity using wavelet transform based features

In Precision Livestock Farming, detecting deviations from optimal or baseline values - i.e. anomalies in time series - is essential to allow undertaking corrective actions rapidly. Here we aim at detecting anomalies in 24h time series of cow activity, with a view to detect cases of disease or oestrus. Deviations must be distinguished from noise which can be very high in case of biological data. It is also important to detect the anomaly early, e.g. before a farmer would notice it visually. Here, we investigate the benefit of using wavelet transforms to denoise data and we assess the performance of an anomaly detection algorithm considering the timing of the detection. We developed features based on the comparisons between the wavelet transforms of the mean of the time series and the wavelet transforms of individual time series instances. We hypothesized that these features contribute to the detection of anomalies in periodic time series using a feature-based algorithm. We tested this hypothesis with two datasets representing cow activity, which typically follows a daily pattern but can deviate due to specific physiological or pathological conditions. We applied features derived from wavelet transform as well as statistical features in an Isolation Forest algorithm. We measured the distance of detection between the days annotated abnormal by animal caretakers days and the days predicted abnormal by the algorithm. The results show that wavelet-based features are among the features most contributing to anomaly detection. They also show that detections are close to the annotated days, and often precede it. In conclusion, using wavelet transforms on time series of cow activity data helps to detect anomalies related to specific cow states. The detection is often obtained on days that precede the day annotated by caretakers, which offer possibility to take corrective actions at an early stage.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Social network heterogeneity benefits individuals at the expense of groups in the creation of innovation

Innovation is fundamental for development and provides a competitive advantage for societies. It is the process of creating more complex technologies, ideas, or protocols from existing ones. While innovation may be created by single agents (i.e. individuals or organisations), it is often a result of social interactions between agents exchanging and combining complementary expertise and perspectives. The structure of social networks impacts this knowledge exchange process. To study the role of social network structures on the creation of new technologies, we design an evolutionary mechanistic model combining self-creation and social learning. We find that social heterogeneity allows agents to leverage the benefits of diversity and to develop technologies of higher complexity. Social heterogeneity, however, reduces the group ability to innovate. Not only the social structure but also the openness of agents to collaborate affect innovation. We find that interdisciplinary interactions lead to more complex technologies benefiting the entire group but also increase the inequality in the innovation output. Lower openness to interdisciplinary collaborations may be compensated by a higher ability to collaborate with multiple peers, but low openness also neutralises the intrinsic benefits of network heterogeneity. Our findings indicate that social network heterogeneity has contrasting effects on microscopic (local) and macroscopic (group) levels, suggesting that the emergence of innovation leaders may suppress the overall group performance.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2021

The global migration network of sex-workers

Differences in the social and economic environment across countries encourage humans to migrate in search of better living conditions, including job opportunities, higher salaries, security and welfare. Quantifying global migration is, however, challenging because of poor recording, privacy issues and residence status. This is particularly critical for some classes of migrants involved in stigmatised, unregulated or illegal activities. Escorting services or high-end prostitution are well-paid activities that attract workers all around the world. In this paper, we study international migration patterns of sex-workers by using network methods. Using an extensive international online advertisement directory of escorting services and information about individual escorts, we reconstruct a migrant flow network where nodes represent either origin or destination countries. The links represent the direct routes between two countries. The migration network of sex-workers shows different structural patterns than the migration of the general population. The network contains a strong core where mutual migration is often observed between a group of high-income European countries, yet Europe is split into different network communities with specific ties to non-European countries. We find non-reciprocal relations between countries, with some of them mostly offering while others attract workers. The GDP per capita is a good indicator of country attractiveness for incoming workers and service rates but is unrelated to the probability of emigration. The median financial gain of migrating, in comparison to working at the home country, is 15.9%. Only sex-workers coming from 77% of the countries have financial gains with migration and average gains decrease with the GDPc of the country of origin. Our results shows that high-end sex-worker migration is regulated by economic, geographic and cultural aspects.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2021

The scaling of social interactions across animal species

Social animals self-organise to create groups to increase protection against predators and productivity. One-to-one interactions are the building blocks of these emergent social structures and may correspond to friendship, grooming, communication, among other social relations. These structures should be robust to failures and provide efficient communication to compensate the costs of forming and maintaining the social contacts but the specific purpose of each social interaction regulates the evolution of the respective social networks. We collate 611 animal social networks and show that the number of social contacts $E$ scales with group size $N$ as a super-linear power-law $E=CN^β$ for various species of animals, including humans, other mammals and non-mammals. We identify that the power-law exponent $β$ varies according to the social function of the interactions as $β= 1+a/4$, with $a \approx {1,2,3,4}$. By fitting a multi-layer model to our data, we observe that the cost to cross social groups also varies according to social function. Relatively low costs are observed for physical contact, grooming and group membership which lead to small groups with high and constant social clustering. Offline friendship has similar patterns while online friendship shows weak social structures. The intermediate case of spatial proximity ($β=1.5$ and clustering dependency on network size quantitatively similar to friendship) suggests that proximity interactions may be as relevant for the spread of infectious diseases as for social processes like friendship.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2018

Modelling Opinion Dynamics in the Age of Algorithmic Personalisation

Modern technology has drastically changed the way we interact and consume information. For example, online social platforms allow for seamless communication exchanges at an unprecedented scale. However, we are still bounded by cognitive and temporal constraints. Our attention is limited and extremely valuable. Algorithmic personalisation has become a standard approach to tackle the information overload problem. As result, the exposure to our friends' opinions and our perception about important issues might be distorted. However, the effects of algorithmic gatekeeping on our hyper-connected society are poorly understood. Here, we devise an opinion dynamics model where individuals are connected through a social network and adopt opinions as function of the view points they are exposed to. We apply various filtering algorithms that select the opinions shown to users i) at random ii) considering time ordering or iii) their current beliefs. Furthermore, we investigate the interplay between such mechanisms and crucial features of real networks. We found that algorithmic filtering might influence opinions' share and distributions, especially in case information is biased towards the current opinion of each user. These effects are reinforced in networks featuring topological and spatial correlations where echo chambers and polarisation emerge. Conversely, heterogeneity in connectivity patterns reduces such tendency. We consider also a scenario where one opinion, through nudging, is centrally pushed to all users. Interestingly, even minimal nudging is able to change the status quo moving it towards the desired view point. Our findings suggest that simple filtering algorithms might be powerful tools to regulate opinion dynamics taking place on social networks

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2017

Sampling of Temporal Networks: Methods and Biases

Temporal networks have been increasingly used to model a diversity of systems that evolve in time; for example human contact structures over which dynamic processes such as epidemics take place. A fundamental aspect of real-life networks is that they are sampled within temporal and spatial frames. Furthermore, one might wish to subsample networks to reduce their size for better visualization or to perform computationally intensive simulations. The sampling method may affect the network structure and thus caution is necessary to generalize results based on samples. In this paper, we study four sampling strategies applied to a variety of real-life temporal networks. We quantify the biases generated by each sampling strategy on a number of relevant statistics such as link activity, temporal paths and epidemic spread. We find that some biases are common in a variety of networks and statistics, but one strategy, uniform sampling of nodes, shows improved performance in most scenarios. Our results help researchers to better design network data collection protocols and to understand the limitations of sampled temporal network data.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2017

Impact of misinformation in temporal network epidemiology

We investigate the impact of misinformation about the contact structure on the ability to predict disease outbreaks. We base our study on 31 empirical temporal networks and tune the frequencies in errors in the node identities or timestamps of contacts. We find that for both these spreading scenarios, the maximal misprediction of both the outbreak size and time to extinction follows an stretched exponential convergence as a function of the error frequency. We furthermore determine the temporal-network structural factors influencing the parameters of this convergence.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2016

Correlations and forecast of death tolls in the Syrian conflict

The Syrian civil war has been ongoing since 2011 and has already caused thousands of deaths. The analysis of death tolls helps to understand the dynamics of the conflict and to better allocate resources to the affected areas. In this article, we use information on the daily number of deaths to study temporal and spatial correlations in the data, and exploit this information to forecast events of deaths. We find that the number of deaths per day follows a log-normal distribution during the conflict. We have also identified strong correlations between cities and on consecutive days, implying that major deaths in one location are typically followed by major deaths in both the same location and in other areas. We find that war-related deaths are not random events and observing death tolls in some cities helps to better predict these numbers across the system.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2016

Modeling contact networks of patients and MRSA spread in Swedish hospitals

Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) is a difficult-to-treat infection that only in the European Union affects about 150,000 patients and causes extra costs of 380 million Euros annually to the health-care systems. Increasing efforts have been taken to mitigate the epidemics and to avoid potential outbreaks in low endemic settings. Understanding the population dynamics of MRSA through modeling is essential to identify the causal mechanisms driving the epidemics and to generalize conclusions to different contexts. We develop an innovative high-resolution spatiotemporal contact network model of interactions between patients to reproduce the hospital population in the context of the Stockholm County in Sweden and simulate the spread of MRSA within this population. Our model captures the spatial and temporal heterogeneity caused by human behavior and by the dynamics of mobility within wards and hospitals. We estimate that in this population the epidemic threshold is at about 0.008. We also identify that these heterogeneous contact patterns cause the emergence of super-spreader patients and a polynomial growth of the epidemic curve. We finally study the effect of standard intervention control strategies and identify that screening is more effective than improved hygienic in order to cause smaller or null outbreaks.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2015

Individual-based approach to epidemic processes on arbitrary dynamic contact networks

The dynamics of contact networks and epidemics of infectious diseases often occur on comparable time scales. Ignoring one of these time scales may provide an incomplete understanding of the population dynamics of the infection process. We develop an individual-based approximation for the susceptible-infected-recovered epidemic model applicable to arbitrary dynamic networks. Our framework provides, at the individual-level, the probability flow over time associated with the infection dynamics. This computationally efficient framework discards the correlation between the states of different nodes, yet provides accurate results in approximating direct numerical simulations. It naturally captures the temporal heterogeneities and correlations of contact sequences, fundamental ingredients regulating the timing and size of an epidemic outbreak. Using real-life data, we show that the static network model overestimates the reproduction number but underestimates the infection potential of super-spreading individuals. The high accuracy of our approximation further allows us to detect the index individual of an epidemic outbreak.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2010

Information dynamics shape the networks of Internet-mediated prostitution

Like many other social phenomena, prostitution is increasingly coordinated over the Internet. The online behavior affects the offline activity; the reverse is also true. We investigated the reported sexual contacts between 6,624 anonymous escorts and 10,106 sex-buyers extracted from an online community from its beginning and six years on. These sexual encounters were also graded and categorized (in terms of the type of sexual activities performed) by the buyers. From the temporal, bipartite network of posts, we found a full feedback loop in which high grades on previous posts affect the future commercial success of the sex-worker, and vice versa. We also found a peculiar growth pattern in which the turnover of community members and sex workers causes a sublinear preferential attachment. There is, moreover, a strong geographic influence on network structure-the network is geographically clustered but still close to connected, the contacts consistent with the inverse-square law observed in trading patterns. We also found that the number of sellers scales sublinearly with city size, so this type of prostitution does not, comparatively speaking, benefit much from an increasing concentration of people.

physics.soc-ph↗