arXiv subjects

Luiz G. A. Alves

Publications and source records attributed to Luiz G. A. Alves.

16 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2021

The rise and fall of countries in the global value chains

Countries participate in global value chains by engaging in backward and forward transactions connecting multiple geographically dispersed production stages. Inspired by network theory, we model global trade as a multilayer network and study its power structure by investigating the tendency of eigenvector centrality to concentrate on a small fraction of countries, a phenomenon called localization transition. We show that the market underwent a significant structural variation in 2007 just before the global financial crisis. That year witnessed an abrupt repositioning of countries in the global value chains, and in particular a remarkable reversal of leading role between the two major economies, the US and China. We uncover the hierarchical structure of the multilayer network based on countries' time series of eigenvector centralities, and show that trade tends to concentrate between countries with different power dynamics, yet in geographical proximity. We further investigate the contribution of individual industries to countries' economic dominance, and show that also within industry variations in countries' market positioning took place in 2007. Moreover, we shed light on the crucial role that domestic trade played in the geopolitical landscape leading China to overtake the US and cement its status as leading economy of the global value chains. Our study shows how the 2008 crisis can offer insights to policy makers and governments on how to turn early structural signals of upcoming exogenous shocks into opportunities for redesigning countries' global roles in a changing geopolitical landscape.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2021

Commuting network effect on urban wealth scaling

Urban scaling theory explains the increasing returns to scale of urban wealth indicators by the per capita increase of human interactions within cities. This explanation implicitly assumes urban areas as isolated entities and ignores their interactions. Here we investigate the effects of commuting networks on the gross domestic product (GDP) of urban areas in the US and Brazil. We describe the urban GDP as the output of a production process where population, incoming commuters, and interactions between these quantities are the input variables. This approach significantly refines the description of urban GDP and shows that incoming commuters contribute to wealth creation in urban areas. Our research indicates that changes in urban GDP related to proportionate changes in population and incoming commuters depend on the initial values of these quantities, such that increasing returns to scale are only possible when the product between population and incoming commuters exceeds a well-defined threshold.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2021

Spreader events and the limitations of projected networks for capturing dynamics on multipartite networks

Many systems of scientific interest can be conceptualized as multipartite networks. Examples include the spread of sexually transmitted infections, scientific collaborations, human friendships, product recommendation systems, and metabolic networks. In practice, these systems are often studied after projection onto a single class of nodes, losing crucial information. Here, we address a significant knowledge gap by comparing transmission dynamics on temporal multipartite networks and on their time-aggregated unipartite projections to determine the impact of the lost information on our ability to predict the systems' dynamics. We show that the dynamics of transmission models can be dramatically dissimilar on multipartite networks and on their projections at three levels: final outcome, the magnitude of the variability from realization to realization, and overall shape of the temporal trajectory. We find that the ratio of the number of nodes to the number of active edges over the time aggregation scale determines the ability of projected networks to capture the dynamics on the multipartite network. Finally, we explore which properties of a multipartite network are crucial in generating synthetic networks that better reproduce the dynamical behavior observed in real multipartite networks.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2020

Collective dynamics of stock market efficiency

Summarized by the efficient market hypothesis, the idea that stock prices fully reflect all available information is always confronted with the behavior of real-world markets. While there is plenty of evidence indicating and quantifying the efficiency of stock markets, most studies assume this efficiency to be constant over time so that its dynamical and collective aspects remain poorly understood. Here we define the time-varying efficiency of stock markets by calculating the permutation entropy within sliding time-windows of log-returns of stock market indices. We show that major world stock markets can be hierarchically classified into several groups that display similar long-term efficiency profiles. However, we also show that efficiency ranks and clusters of markets with similar trends are only stable for a few months at a time. We thus propose a network representation of stock markets that aggregates their short-term efficiency patterns into a global and coherent picture. We find this financial network to be strongly entangled while also having a modular structure that consists of two distinct groups of stock markets. Our results suggest that stock market efficiency is a collective phenomenon that can drive its operation at a high level of informational efficiency, but also places the entire system under risk of failure.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2020

Centrality anomalies in complex networks as a result of model over-simplification

Tremendous advances have been made in our understanding of the properties and evolution of complex networks. These advances were initially driven by information-poor empirical networks and theoretical analysis of unweighted and undirected graphs. Recently, information-rich empirical data complex networks supported the development of more sophisticated models that include edge directionality and weight properties, and multiple layers. Many studies still focus on unweighted undirected description of networks, prompting an essential question: how to identify when a model is simpler than it must be? Here, we argue that the presence of centrality anomalies in complex networks is a result of model over-simplification. Specifically, we investigate the well-known anomaly in betweenness centrality for transportation networks, according to which highly connected nodes are not necessarily the most central. Using a broad class of network models with weights and spatial constraints and four large data sets of transportation networks, we show that the unweighted projection of the structure of these networks can exhibit a significant fraction of anomalous nodes compared to a random null model. However, the weighted projection of these networks, compared with an appropriated null model, significantly reduces the fraction of anomalies observed, suggesting that centrality anomalies are a symptom of model over-simplification. Because lack of information-rich data is a common challenge when dealing with complex networks and can cause anomalies that misestimate the role of nodes in the system, we argue that sufficiently sophisticated models be used when anomalies are detected.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2019

The nested structural organization of the worldwide trade multi-layer network

Nestedness has traditionally been used to detect assembly patterns in meta-communities and networks of interacting species. Attempts have also been made to uncover nested structures in international trade, typically represented as bipartite networks in which connections can be established between countries (exporters or importers) and industries. A bipartite representation of trade, however, inevitably neglects transactions between industries. To fully capture the organization of the global value chain, we draw on the World Input-Output Database and construct a multi-layer network in which the nodes are the countries, the layers are the industries, and links can be established from sellers to buyers within and across industries. We define the buyers' and sellers' participation matrices in which the rows are the countries and the columns are all possible pairs of industries, and then compute nestedness based on buyers' and sellers' involvement in transactions between and within industries. Drawing on appropriate null models that preserve the countries' or layers' degree distributions in the original multi-layer network, we uncover variations of country- and transaction-based nestedness over time, and identify the countries and industries that most contributed to nestedness. We discuss the implications of our findings for the study of the international production network and other real-world systems.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2019

Reconstructing commuters network using machine learning and urban indicators

Human mobility has a significant impact on several layers of society, from infrastructural planning and economics to the spread of diseases and crime. Representing the system as a complex network, in which nodes are assigned to regions (e.g., a city) and links indicate the flow of people between two of them, physics-inspired models have been proposed to quantify the number of people migrating from one city to the other. Despite the advances made by these models, our ability to predict the number of commuters and reconstruct mobility networks remains limited. Here, we propose an alternative approach using machine learning and 22 urban indicators to predict the flow of people and reconstruct the intercity commuters network. Our results reveal that predictions based on machine learning algorithms and urban indicators can reconstruct the commuters network with 90.4% of accuracy and describe 77.6% of the variance observed in the flow of people between cities. We also identify essential features to recover the network structure and the urban indicators mostly related to commuting patterns. As previously reported, distance plays a significant role in commuting, but other indicators, such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and unemployment rate, are also driven-forces for people to commute. We believe that our results shed new lights on the modeling of migration and reinforce the role of urban indicators on commuting patterns. Also, because link-prediction and network reconstruction are still open challenges in network science, our results have implications in other areas, like economics, social sciences, and biology, where node attributes can give us information about the existence of links connecting entities in the network.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2018

Unfolding the complexity of the global value chain: Strengths and entropy in the single-layer, multiplex, and multi-layer international trade networks

The worldwide trade network has been widely studied through different data sets and network representations with a view to better understanding interactions among countries and products. Here we investigate international trade through the lenses of the single-layer, multiplex, and multi-layer networks. We discuss differences among the three network frameworks in terms of their relative advantages in capturing salient topological features of trade. We draw on the World Input-Output Database to build the three networks. We then uncover sources of heterogeneity in the way strength is allocated among countries and transactions by computing the strength distribution and entropy in each network. Additionally, we trace how entropy evolved, and show how the observed peaks can be associated with the onset of the global economic downturn. Findings suggest how more complex representations of trade, such as the multi-layer network, enable us to disambiguate the distinct roles of intra- and cross-industry transactions in driving the evolution of entropy at a more aggregate level. We discuss our results and the implications of our comparative analysis of networks for research on international trade and other empirical domains across the natural and social sciences.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2018

The hidden traits of endemic illiteracy in cities

In spite of the considerable progress towards reducing illiteracy rates, many countries, including developed ones, have encountered difficulty achieving further reduction in these rates. This is worrying because illiteracy has been related to numerous health, social, and economic problems. Here, we show that the spatial patterns of illiteracy in urban systems have several features analogous to the spread of diseases such as dengue and obesity. Our results reveal that illiteracy rates are spatially long-range correlated, displaying non-trivial clustering structures characterized by percolation-like transitions and fractality. These patterns can be described in the context of percolation theory of long-range correlated systems at criticality. Together, these results provide evidence that the illiteracy incidence can be related to a transmissible process, in which the lack of access to minimal education propagates in a population in a similar fashion to endemic diseases.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2018

The dynamical structure of political corruption networks

Corruptive behaviour in politics limits economic growth, embezzles public funds, and promotes socio-economic inequality in modern democracies. We analyse well-documented political corruption scandals in Brazil over the past 27 years, focusing on the dynamical structure of networks where two individuals are connected if they were involved in the same scandal. Our research reveals that corruption runs in small groups that rarely comprise more than eight people, in networks that have hubs and a modular structure that encompasses more than one corruption scandal. We observe abrupt changes in the size of the largest connected component and in the degree distribution, which are due to the coalescence of different modules when new scandals come to light or when governments change. We show further that the dynamical structure of political corruption networks can be used for successfully predicting partners in future scandals. We discuss the important role of network science in detecting and mitigating political corruption.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2017

The role of city size and urban metrics on crime modeling

Unveiling the relationships between crime and socioeconomic factors is crucial for modeling and preventing these illegal activities. Recently, a significant advance has been made in understanding the influence of urban metrics on the levels of crime in different urban systems. In this chapter, we show how the dynamics of crime growth rate and the number of crime in cities are related to cities' size. We also discuss the role of urban metrics in crime modeling within the framework of the urban scaling hypothesis, where a data-driven approach is proposed for modeling crime. This model provides several insights into the mechanism ruling the dynamics of crime and can assist policymakers in making better decisions on resource allocation and help crime prevention.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2017

Long-range correlations and fractal dynamics in C. elegans: changes with aging and stress

Reduced motor control is one of the most frequent features associated with aging and disease. Nonlinear and fractal analyses have proved to be useful in investigating human physiological alterations with age and disease. Similar findings have not been established for any of the model organisms typically studied by biologists, though. If the physiology of a simpler model organism displays the same characteristics, this fact would open a new research window on the control mechanisms that organisms use to regulate physiological processes during aging and stress. Here, we use a recently introduced animal tracking technology to simultaneously follow tens of Caenorhabdits elegans for several hours and use tools from fractal physiology to quantitatively evaluate the effects of aging and temperature stress on nematode motility. Similarly to human physiological signals, scaling analysis reveals long-range correlations in numerous motility variables, fractal properties in behavioral shifts, and fluctuation dynamics over a wide range of timescales. These properties change as a result of a superposition of age and stress-related adaptive mechanisms that regulate motility.

q-bio.QM↗

arXiv2015

Scale-adjusted metrics for predicting the evolution of urban indicators and quantifying the performance of cities

More than a half of world population is now living in cities and this number is expected to be two-thirds by 2050. Fostered by the relevancy of a scientific characterization of cities and for the availability of an unprecedented amount of data, academics have recently immersed in this topic and one of the most striking and universal finding was the discovery of robust allometric scaling laws between several urban indicators and the population size. Despite that, most governmental reports and several academic works still ignore these nonlinearities by often analyzing the raw or the per capita value of urban indicators, a practice that actually makes the urban metrics biased towards small or large cities depending on whether we have super or sublinear allometries. By following the ideas of Bettencourt et al., we account for this bias by evaluating the difference between the actual value of an urban indicator and the value expected by the allometry with the population size. We show that this scale-adjusted metric provides a more appropriate/informative summary of the evolution of urban indicators and reveals patterns that do not appear in the evolution of per capita values of indicators obtained from Brazilian cities. We also show that these scale-adjusted metrics are strongly correlated with their past values by a linear correspondence and that they also display crosscorrelations among themselves. Simple linear models account for 31%-97% of the observed variance in data and correctly reproduce the average of the scale-adjusted metric when grouping the cities in above and below the allometric laws. We further employ these models to forecast future values of urban indicators and, by visualizing the predicted changes, we verify the emergence of spatial clusters characterized by regions of the Brazilian territory where we expect an increase or a decrease in the values of urban indicators.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2015

Solutions for a q-generalized Schrödinger equation of entangled interacting particles

We report on the time dependent solutions of the $q-$generalized Schrödinger equation proposed by Nobre et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 106, 140601 (2011)]. Here we investigate the case of two free particles and also the case where two particles were subjected to a Moshinsky-like potential with time dependent coefficients. We work out analytical and numerical solutions for different values of the parameter $q$ and also show that the usual Schrödinger equation is recovered in the limit of $q\rightarrow 1$. An intriguing behavior was observed for $q=2$, where the wave function displays a ring-like shape, indicating a bind behavior of the particles. Differently from the results previously reported for the case of one particle, frozen states appear only for special combinations of the wave function parameters in case of $q=3$.

physics.comp-ph↗

arXiv2014

Empirical analysis on the connection between power-law distributions and allometries for urban indicators

We report on the existing connection between power-law distributions and allometries. As it was first reported in [PLoS ONE 7, e40393 (2012)] for the relationship between homicides and population, when these urban indicators present asymptotic power-law distributions, they can also display specific allometries among themselves. Here, we present an extensive characterization of this connection when considering all possible pairs of relationships from twelve urban indicators of Brazilian cities (such as child labor, illiteracy, income, sanitation and unemployment). Our analysis reveals that all our urban indicators are asymptotically distributed as power laws and that the proposed connection also holds for our data when the allometric relationship displays enough correlations. We have also found that not all allometric relationships are independent and that they can be understood as a consequence of the allometric relationship between the urban indicator and the population size. We further show that the residuals fluctuations surrounding the allometries are characterized by an almost constant variance and log-normal distributions.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2013

Distance to the scaling law: a useful approach for unveiling relationships between crime and urban metrics

We report on a quantitative analysis of relationships between the number of homicides, population size and other ten urban metrics. By using data from Brazilian cities, we show that well defined average scaling laws with the population size emerge when investigating the relations between population and number of homicides as well as population and urban metrics. We also show that the fluctuations around the scaling laws are log-normally distributed, which enabled us to model these scaling laws by a stochastic-like equation driven by a multiplicative and log-normally distributed noise. Because of the scaling laws, we argue that it is better to employ logarithms in order to describe the number of homicides in function of the urban metrics via regression analysis. In addition to the regression analysis, we propose an approach to correlate crime and urban metrics via the evaluation of the distance between the actual value of the number of homicides (as well as the value of the urban metrics) and the value that is expected by the scaling law with the population size. This approach have proved to be robust and useful for unveiling relationships/behaviors that were not properly carried out by the regression analysis, such as i) the non-explanatory potential of the elderly population when the number of homicides is much above or much below the scaling law, ii) the fact that unemployment has explanatory potential only when the number of homicides is considerably larger than the expected by the power law, and iii) a gender difference in number of homicides, where cities with female population below the scaling law are characterized by a number of homicides above the power law.

physics.soc-ph↗