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Luk Fleddermann

Publications and source records attributed to Luk Fleddermann.

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Improving the prediction of spatio-temporal chaos by combining parallel reservoir computing with dimensionality reduction

Reservoir computers can be used to predict time series generated by spatio-temporal chaotic systems. Using multiple reservoirs in parallel has shown improved performances for these predictions, by effectively reducing the input dimensionality of each reservoir. Similarly, one may further reduce the dimensionality of the input data by transforming to a lower-dimensional latent space. Combining both approaches, we show that using dimensionality-reduced latent space predictions for parallel reservoir computing not only reduces computational costs, but also leads to better prediction results for small to medium reservoir sizes. In the combined approach we further demonstrate that dimensionality reduction improves small-reservoir predictions regardless of noise contaminating the training data. The benefit of dimensionality-reduced parallel reservoir computing is illustrated and evaluated on the basis of the prediction of the one-dimensional Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equation.

nlin.CD

Societal self-regulation induces complex infection dynamics and chaos

Classically, endemic infectious diseases are expected to display relatively stable, predictable infection dynamics. Accordingly, basic disease models such as the susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible model display stable endemic states or recurrent seasonal waves. However, if the human population reacts to high infection numbers by mitigating the spread of the disease, then this delayed behavioral feedback loop can generate infection waves itself, driven by periodic mitigation and subsequent relaxation. We show that such behavioral reactions, together with a seasonal effect of comparable impact, can cause complex and unpredictable infection dynamics, including Arnold tongues, coexisting attractors, and chaos. Importantly, these arise in epidemiologically relevant parameter regions where the costs associated to infections and mitigation are jointly minimized. By comparing our model to data, we find signs that COVID-19 was mitigated in a way that favored complex infection dynamics. Our results challenge the intuition that endemic disease dynamics necessarily implies predictability and seasonal waves and show the emergence of complex infection dynamics when humans optimize their reaction to increasing infection numbers.

physics.soc-ph