arXiv subjects

Lukas Gonon

Publications and source records attributed to Lukas Gonon.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Arbitrage-Aware Multi-Step Forecasting of Implied Volatility Surfaces: Modelling Surface Trajectories Using Latent Diffusion

Implied volatility surfaces summarise the option market and are central to many financial applications. Forecasting their future evolution requires modelling two-dimensional geometry, temporal dependence, and predictive uncertainty while preserving economic admissibility. We propose a conditional latent diffusion framework for generating joint 30-step trajectories of implied volatility surfaces and underlying returns. An arbitrage-aware autoencoder learns a low-dimensional surface representation, while the diffusion model captures the conditional joint evolution. Evaluated on SPX surfaces, the framework generates realistic probabilistic multi-step scenarios while also outperforming the persistence benchmark in point forecasting.

q-fin.MF↗

arXiv2026

Robust Control under Stationary Ambiguity

Control policies optimized in simulation can perform poorly in the real system when the parameters $x$ of the simulator are estimated from limited data but the resulting parameter uncertainty is not represented inside the simulation. A common way to incorporate such ambiguity is to simulate each trajectory of the system under a randomly drawn value for $x$. Since the policy cannot observe the drawn value, it must initially choose controls that perform well across many possible parameter values. However, if the policy progressively observes the system, it can often gradually infer the value of $x$, so that ambiguity vanishes. Over time, the policy then specializes to its estimate of $x$ and loses its robustness. This is undesirable in many real systems, where latent factors are expected to shift. In financial markets, for example, a policy hedging a derivative payoff should remain robust to changes in the volatility regime. To induce such continual robustness, we propose training policies in simulators where ambiguity varies with the system's state but does not systematically decay over time. We formalize this requirement as stationary ambiguity: the simulator should induce a stationary filter process over the latent state. We show how to construct such simulators and demonstrate, on hedging problems, that policies trained under stationary ambiguity preserve robustness to latent factors over time, leading to strong performance on real market data. As a modeling principle, stationary ambiguity informs many simulator design decisions: which models make realistic simulators, how their parameters should be randomized, and how simulator and policy should be initialized. While our experiments focus on hedging, stationary ambiguity may also be useful for other sequential control problems driven by exogenous stochastic processes with shifting latent structure.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Universality and Approximation Rates of Graph Neural Networks with Random Features

We investigate message-passing graph neural networks with random node features. Random node features are known to enhance the expressiveness of graph neural networks (GNNs) both theoretically and empirically. Here, we establish a novel universality result focusing on permutation-equivariant neural networks (PENNs), a class of GNNs built from feedforward neural network components that subsumes many prominent GNN architectures. We show that PENNs, combined with partially random node features, can approximate arbitrarily well in probability any measurable permutation-invariant or permutation-equivariant function on directed graphs of fixed size with multidimensional node and edge features. For $k$-times continuously differentiable functions, $k\geq 2$, we also derive upper bounds on the approximation rates, relating the complexity of the feedforward components of a PENN in terms of layer depth and number of nonzero weights to the desired approximation accuracy.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Neural Slack Variables for Shape Constraints

Enforcing functional inequality constraints such as monotonicity and convexity in neural networks is a fundamental challenge in many industrial and scientific applications. Classical one-sided penalty methods, along with primal-dual methods gated by complementary slackness, provide constraint gradients only at violated locations, resulting in fragile satisfaction. Architectures that guarantee feasibility by construction, on the other hand, remain largely limited to elementary cases and impose additional inductive biases. We introduce neural slack variables, a deep learning native primal-side approach that converts constraint enforcement into a regression problem by coupling the primary network with a jointly learned auxiliary network. The auxiliary network serves as a valid target for the primary network's constraint quantities, inducing feasibility and regularity. Neural slack variables achieve zero measured violations on dense-grid monotonicity and convexity test cases, where penalty and primal-dual baselines leave residual violations, and enable arbitrage-free learning of volatility surfaces, an open industrial challenge in quantitative finance.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Generating Financial Time Series by Matching Random Convolutional Features

Generating realistic financial time series is challenging as training data is often limited to a single historical path. With such scarce data, overfitting is hard to avoid, especially under adversarial training where a trained discriminator can memorize the training samples. To mitigate this, recent approaches train generators to minimize the discrepancy between untrained feature representations of real and generated time series. In these works, the feature maps are based on path signatures, which can fail to capture relevant time series properties at tractable truncation depths. In this work, we instead train generators by matching random convolutional features of real and generated time series. Existing random convolutional feature maps, such as Rocket and Hydra, have been shown to provide informative representations of real-world time series, but cannot supervise generative models because they are non-differentiable. We introduce SOCK (SOft Competing Kernels), a fully differentiable random convolutional feature map, suited to train generative time series models. We show that generators trained by matching random SOCK features consistently outperform signature and diffusion baselines across a wide range of small-sample financial datasets. We further demonstrate SOCK's expressiveness on two-sample hypothesis testing and time series classification tasks, where SOCK matches or outperforms existing unsupervised feature maps.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Random Neural Network Expressivity for Non-Linear Partial Differential Equations

Neural networks with randomly generated hidden weights (RaNNs) have been extensively studied, both as a standalone learning method and as an initialization for fully trainable deep learning methods. In this work, we study RaNN expressivity for learning solutions to non-linear partial differential equations (PDEs). Despite their widespread use in practical applications, a rigorous theoretical understanding of the approximation properties of RaNNs in this context remains limited. Here, we derive error bounds for RaNN approximations to time-dependent Sobolev functions and obtain a dimension-free approximation rate $\frac{1}{2}$ for sufficiently regular functions. We apply our results to two important classes of non-linear PDEs: Porous Medium Equations and Compressible Navier-Stokes Equations, showing that RaNNs are capable of efficiently approximating solutions to these complex, non-linear PDEs. Our theoretical analysis is supported by numerical experiments, showing that the obtained convergence rates extend beyond the considered setting.

math.NA↗

arXiv2026

Quantitative Universal Approximation for Noisy Quantum Neural Networks

We provide here a universal approximation theorem with precise quantitative error bounds for noisy quantum neural networks. We focus on applications to Quantitative Finance, where target functions are often given as expectations. We further provide a detailed numerical analysis, testing our results on actual noisy quantum hardware.

quant-ph↗

arXiv2026

Gradient Regularized Newton Boosting Trees with Global Convergence

Gradient Boosting Decision Trees (GBDTs) dominate tabular machine learning, with modern implementations like XGBoost, LightGBM, and CatBoost being based on Newton boosting: a second-order descent step in the space of decision trees. Despite its empirical success, the global convergence of Newton boosting is poorly understood compared to first-order boosting. In this paper, we introduce Restricted Newton Descent, which studies convex optimization with Newton's method on Hilbert spaces with inexact iterates, based on the concepts of cosine angle and weak gradient edge. Within this framework, we recover Newton boosting with GBDTs and classical finite-dimensional theory as special cases. We first prove that vanilla Newton boosting achieves a linear rate of convergence for smooth, strongly convex losses that satisfy a Hessian-dominance condition. To handle general convex losses with Lipschitz Hessians, we extend a recent gradient regularized Newton scheme to the restricted weak learner setting. This scheme minimally modifies the classical algorithm by introducing an adaptive $\ell_2$-regularization term proportional to the square root of the gradient norm at each iteration. We establish a $\mathcal{O}(\frac{1}{k^2})$ rate for this scheme, thereby obtaining a globally convergent second-order GBDT algorithm with a rate matching that of first-order boosting with Nesterov momentum. In numerical experiments, we show that our scheme converges while vanilla Newton boosting may diverge.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

Efficient Quantum Algorithm for Robust Training

Adversarial training is a standard defense against malicious input perturbations in security-critical machine-learning systems. Its main burden is structural: before every parameter update, the current model must first be attacked to find a new adversarial perturbation, making training increasingly expensive and hard to sustain at large-model scale. Here we give an end-to-end quantum procedure for projected-gradient robust training under local stability and sparsity assumptions. The key step is to reformulate the coupled attacker--learner dynamics as a high-dimensional sparse linear system whose terminal block yields the final network-parameter state. In this formulation, the dominant query cost scales linearly with training time steps, up to logarithmic factors, and polylogarithmically with model size, while the full gate complexity records separate input-preparation and sparse-access overheads. This places core computational tasks for AI security on a concrete quantum footing and identifies a regime in which robust-training overhead can be reduced.

quant-ph↗

arXiv2026

Feedback-driven recurrent quantum neural network universality

Quantum reservoir computing uses the dynamics of quantum systems to process temporal data, making it particularly well-suited for machine learning with noisy intermediate-scale quantum devices. Recent developments have introduced feedback-based quantum reservoir systems, which process temporal information with comparatively fewer components and enable real-time computation while preserving the input history. Motivated by their promising empirical performance, in this work, we study the approximation capabilities of feedback-based quantum reservoir computing. More specifically, we are concerned with recurrent quantum neural networks, which are quantum analogues of classical recurrent neural networks. Our results show that regular state-space systems can be approximated using quantum recurrent neural networks without the curse of dimensionality and with the number of qubits only growing logarithmically in the reciprocal of the prescribed approximation accuracy. Notably, our analysis demonstrates that quantum recurrent neural networks are universal with linear readouts, making them both powerful and experimentally accessible. These results pave the way for practical and theoretically grounded quantum reservoir computing with real-time processing capabilities.

quant-ph↗

arXiv2025

Error analysis for the deep Kolmogorov method

The deep Kolmogorov method is a simple and popular deep learning based method for approximating solutions of partial differential equations (PDEs) of the Kolmogorov type. In this work we provide an error analysis for the deep Kolmogorov method for heat PDEs. Specifically, we reveal convergence with convergence rates for the overall mean square distance between the exact solution of the heat PDE and the realization function of the approximating deep neural network (DNN) associated with a stochastic optimization algorithm in terms of the size of the architecture (the depth/number of hidden layers and the width of the hidden layers) of the approximating DNN, in terms of the number of random sample points used in the loss function (the number of input-output data pairs used in the loss function), and in terms of the size of the optimization error made by the employed stochastic optimization method.

math.NA↗

arXiv2025

Infinite-dimensional Mahalanobis Distance with Applications to Kernelized Novelty Detection

The Mahalanobis distance is a classical tool used to measure the covariance-adjusted distance between points in $\bbR^d$. In this work, we extend the concept of Mahalanobis distance to separable Banach spaces by reinterpreting it as a Cameron-Martin norm associated with a probability measure. This approach leads to a basis-free, data-driven notion of anomaly distance through the so-called variance norm, which can naturally be estimated using empirical measures of a sample. Our framework generalizes the classical $\bbR^d$, functional $(L^2[0,1])^d$, and kernelized settings; importantly, it incorporates non-injective covariance operators. We prove that the variance norm is invariant under invertible bounded linear transformations of the data, extending previous results which are limited to unitary operators. In the Hilbert space setting, we connect the variance norm to the RKHS of the covariance operator, and establish consistency and convergence results for estimation using empirical measures with Tikhonov regularization. Using the variance norm, we introduce the notion of a kernelized nearest-neighbour Mahalanobis distance, and study some of its finite-sample concentration properties. In an empirical study on 12 real-world data sets, we demonstrate that the kernelized nearest-neighbour Mahalanobis distance outperforms the traditional kernelized Mahalanobis distance for multivariate time series novelty detection, using state-of-the-art time series kernels such as the signature, global alignment, and Volterra reservoir kernels.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Distributional Adversarial Attacks and Training in Deep Hedging

In this paper, we study the robustness of classical deep hedging strategies under distributional shifts by leveraging the concept of adversarial attacks. We first demonstrate that standard deep hedging models are highly vulnerable to small perturbations in the input distribution, resulting in significant performance degradation. Motivated by this, we propose an adversarial training framework tailored to increase the robustness of deep hedging strategies. Our approach extends pointwise adversarial attacks to the distributional setting and introduces a computationally tractable reformulation of the adversarial optimization problem over a Wasserstein ball. This enables the efficient training of hedging strategies that are resilient to distributional perturbations. Through extensive numerical experiments, we show that adversarially trained deep hedging strategies consistently outperform their classical counterparts in terms of out-of-sample performance and resilience to model misspecification. Additional results indicate that the robust strategies maintain reliable performance on real market data and remain effective during periods of market change. Our findings establish a practical and effective framework for robust deep hedging under realistic market uncertainties.

math.OC↗

arXiv2025

Computing Systemic Risk Measures with Graph Neural Networks

This paper investigates systemic risk measures for stochastic financial networks of explicitly modelled bilateral liabilities. We extend the notion of systemic risk measures from Biagini, Fouque, Fritelli and Meyer-Brandis (2019) to graph structured data. In particular, we focus on an aggregation function that is derived from a market clearing algorithm proposed by Eisenberg and Noe (2001). In this setting, we show the existence of an optimal random allocation that distributes the overall minimal bailout capital and secures the network. We study numerical methods for the approximation of systemic risk and optimal random allocations. We propose to use permutation equivariant architectures of neural networks like graph neural networks (GNNs) and a class that we name (extended) permutation equivariant neural networks ((X)PENNs). We compare their performance to several benchmark allocations. The main feature of GNNs and (X)PENNs is that they are permutation equivariant with respect to the underlying graph data. In numerical experiments we find evidence that these permutation equivariant methods are superior to other approaches.

q-fin.CP↗

arXiv2025

Reservoir kernels and Volterra series

A universal kernel is constructed whose sections approximate any causal and time-invariant filter in the fading memory category with inputs and outputs in a finite-dimensional Euclidean space. This kernel is built using the reservoir functional associated with a state-space representation of the Volterra series expansion available for any analytic fading memory filter, and it is hence called the Volterra reservoir kernel. Even though the state-space representation and the corresponding reservoir feature map are defined on an infinite-dimensional tensor algebra space, the kernel map is characterized by explicit recursions that are readily computable for specific data sets when employed in estimation problems using the representer theorem. The empirical performance of the Volterra reservoir kernel is showcased and compared to other standard static and sequential kernels in a multidimensional and highly nonlinear learning task for the conditional covariances of financial asset returns.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Random Feature Representation Boosting

We introduce Random Feature Representation Boosting (RFRBoost), a novel method for constructing deep residual random feature neural networks (RFNNs) using boosting theory. RFRBoost uses random features at each layer to learn the functional gradient of the network representation, enhancing performance while preserving the convex optimization benefits of RFNNs. In the case of MSE loss, we obtain closed-form solutions to greedy layer-wise boosting with random features. For general loss functions, we show that fitting random feature residual blocks reduces to solving a quadratically constrained least squares problem. Through extensive numerical experiments on tabular datasets for both regression and classification, we show that RFRBoost significantly outperforms RFNNs and end-to-end trained MLP ResNets in the small- to medium-scale regime where RFNNs are typically applied. Moreover, RFRBoost offers substantial computational benefits, and theoretical guarantees stemming from boosting theory.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Operator Deep Smoothing for Implied Volatility

We devise a novel method for nowcasting implied volatility based on neural operators. Better known as implied volatility smoothing in the financial industry, nowcasting of implied volatility means constructing a smooth surface that is consistent with the prices presently observed on a given option market. Option price data arises highly dynamically in ever-changing spatial configurations, which poses a major limitation to foundational machine learning approaches using classical neural networks. While large models in language and image processing deliver breakthrough results on vast corpora of raw data, in financial engineering the generalization from big historical datasets has been hindered by the need for considerable data pre-processing. In particular, implied volatility smoothing has remained an instance-by-instance, hands-on process both for neural network-based and traditional parametric strategies. Our general operator deep smoothing approach, instead, directly maps observed data to smoothed surfaces. We adapt the graph neural operator architecture to do so with high accuracy on ten years of raw intraday S&P 500 options data, using a single model instance. The trained operator adheres to critical no-arbitrage constraints and is robust with respect to subsampling of inputs (occurring in practice in the context of outlier removal). We provide extensive historical benchmarks and showcase the generalization capability of our approach in a comparison with classical neural networks and SVI, an industry standard parametrization for implied volatility. The operator deep smoothing approach thus opens up the use of neural networks on large historical datasets in financial engineering.

q-fin.CP↗

arXiv2025

Universal Approximation Theorem and error bounds for quantum neural networks and quantum reservoirs

Universal approximation theorems are the foundations of classical neural networks, providing theoretical guarantees that the latter are able to approximate maps of interest. Recent results have shown that this can also be achieved in a quantum setting, whereby classical functions can be approximated by parameterised quantum circuits. We provide here precise error bounds for specific classes of functions and extend these results to the interesting new setup of randomised quantum circuits, mimicking classical reservoir neural networks. Our results show in particular that a quantum neural network with $\mathcal{O}(\varepsilon^{-2})$ weights and $\mathcal{O} (\lceil \log_2(\varepsilon^{-1}) \rceil)$ qubits suffices to achieve accuracy $\varepsilon>0$ when approximating functions with integrable Fourier transform.

quant-ph↗