arXiv subjects

Lukas Hedegaard Morsing

Publications and source records attributed to Lukas Hedegaard Morsing.

2 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Aries: A Proprietary Medium-Range Weather Prediction Model for the Energy Industry

Medium-range weather forecasting underpins operational and planning decisions across the energy industry. Developing competitive weather models was once the domain of national meteorological centers, but recent advances in machine-learned weather prediction (MLWP) have opened the field to industry. We present Aries, a SwinTransformer-based MLWP model developed at InCommodities. Aries is trained on ERA5 reanalysis data at 0.25\textdegree{} resolution, predicting 74 prognostic and 11 diagnostic atmospheric variables. We evaluate the model on 2025 ECMWF Analysis initializations, ensuring a recent and strictly out-of-sample test period for all models compared. On 10-metre wind speed, Aries outperforms both ECMWF HRES and AIFS in terms of RMSE for lead times up to four days, while on 2-metre temperature it achieves RMSE on par with AIFS operational. These results demonstrate that proprietary development of competitive weather models is technically viable, supporting a broader set of forecasts available for operational and planning applications in the energy industry.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2020

Supervised Domain Adaptation using Graph Embedding

Getting deep convolutional neural networks to perform well requires a large amount of training data. When the available labelled data is small, it is often beneficial to use transfer learning to leverage a related larger dataset (source) in order to improve the performance on the small dataset (target). Among the transfer learning approaches, domain adaptation methods assume that distributions between the two domains are shifted and attempt to realign them. In this paper, we consider the domain adaptation problem from the perspective of dimensionality reduction and propose a generic framework based on graph embedding. Instead of solving the generalised eigenvalue problem, we formulate the graph-preserving criterion as a loss in the neural network and learn a domain-invariant feature transformation in an end-to-end fashion. We show that the proposed approach leads to a powerful Domain Adaptation framework; a simple LDA-inspired instantiation of the framework leads to state-of-the-art performance on two of the most widely used Domain Adaptation benchmarks, Office31 and MNIST to USPS datasets.

cs.LG↗