Lukas Karkossa | Searcharxiv

arXiv2026

Can Optimal Dispatch Models Recreate Reality? A Retrospective Analysis of Europe's 2022 Energy Crisis Using PyPSA-Eur

Electricity prices result from the complex interplay of supply and demand, which depends on variable renewable energy production, fuel costs, CO$_2$ price, and grid bottlenecks.Between 2020 and 2024, COVID-19 shifted demand and disrupted supply chains and operations in Europe, while Russia's invasion of Ukraine constrained gas supply, causing exceptional volatility in gas prices. It remains unclear whether optimal dispatch models can reliably replicate historical hourly prices during crises, given the rapid fluctuations in fuel prices and operators' limited foresight. In this work, we ask whether an optimal dispatch model, parametrised with historical data on demand, fuel, and CO$_2$ prices, can reproduce the observed market outcomes during this period. We perform hourly hindcasts of electricity generation in 35 countries from 2020 to 2024 using PyPSA-Eur and compare the nodal marginal electricity prices with historical ENTSO-E market prices using the Symmetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error (SMAPE). The scenarios compare static vs dynamic assumptions on fuel and CO$_2$ prices, as well as perfect foresight vs a two-week rolling-horizon optimization. Combining high-resolution fuel and CO$_2$ price time series with limited-foresight substantially improves hindcast accuracy, yielding an average SMAPE of 20.76% based on the daily load-weighted average price for the entire Europe. While improvements relative to the scenario with perfect foresight and static price inputs occur, they are most pronounced during periods of high fuel-price volatility, when marginal-cost swings propagate to electricity prices. In 2022, the optimal generation mix in most countries shows substantially less natural gas and more coal than historically observed. Other discrepancies can be attributed to the model's omission of real-world policy interventions, other dispatch constraints, and generator outages.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2025

Location matters: Exploring the effects of regional geographical and political characteristics on hydrogen pipeline costs globally

Transporting hydrogen using pipelines is becoming increasingly relevant in the energy system, yet current cost estimates typically rely on simplistic approaches that overlook region-specific characteristics, leading to potential underestimations of costs. This paper examines hydrogen pipeline costs by incorporating regional geographical factors, such as land use, topography and existing infrastructure, together with political-economic factors represented through country-specific weighted average costs of capital. Using a GIS-based model, we demonstrate that the regional levelized cost of transportation can vary by up to a factor of three. Comparing our approach with conventional ones based on uniform detour factors in an existing European energy system analysis framework shows substantial deviations in trade flows and highlights the relevance of this work. We provide cost and route data for 4,900 potential global pipeline routes. Our findings yield valuable insights for further research and stakeholders when assessing the economic viability of hydrogen as a competitive energy carrier.

physics.soc-ph↗