arXiv subjects

Lukasz Szpruch

Publications and source records attributed to Lukasz Szpruch.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2023

Conditional Sig-Wasserstein GANs for Time Series Generation

Generative adversarial networks (GANs) have been extremely successful in generating samples, from seemingly high dimensional probability measures. However, these methods struggle to capture the temporal dependence of joint probability distributions induced by time-series data. Furthermore, long time-series data streams hugely increase the dimension of the target space, which may render generative modelling infeasible. To overcome these challenges, motivated by the autoregressive models in econometric, we are interested in the conditional distribution of future time series given the past information. We propose the generic conditional Sig-WGAN framework by integrating Wasserstein-GANs (WGANs) with mathematically principled and efficient path feature extraction called the signature of a path. The signature of a path is a graded sequence of statistics that provides a universal description for a stream of data, and its expected value characterises the law of the time-series model. In particular, we develop the conditional Sig-$W_1$ metric, that captures the conditional joint law of time series models, and use it as a discriminator. The signature feature space enables the explicit representation of the proposed discriminators which alleviates the need for expensive training. We validate our method on both synthetic and empirical dataset and observe that our method consistently and significantly outperforms state-of-the-art benchmarks with respect to measures of similarity and predictive ability.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Optimal scheduling of entropy regulariser for continuous-time linear-quadratic reinforcement learning

This work uses the entropy-regularised relaxed stochastic control perspective as a principled framework for designing reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms. Herein agent interacts with the environment by generating noisy controls distributed according to the optimal relaxed policy. The noisy policies on the one hand, explore the space and hence facilitate learning but, on the other hand, introduce bias by assigning a positive probability to non-optimal actions. This exploration-exploitation trade-off is determined by the strength of entropy regularisation. We study algorithms resulting from two entropy regularisation formulations: the exploratory control approach, where entropy is added to the cost objective, and the proximal policy update approach, where entropy penalises policy divergence between consecutive episodes. We focus on the finite horizon continuous-time linear-quadratic (LQ) RL problem, where a linear dynamics with unknown drift coefficients is controlled subject to quadratic costs. In this setting, both algorithms yield a Gaussian relaxed policy. We quantify the precise difference between the value functions of a Gaussian policy and its noisy evaluation and show that the execution noise must be independent across time. By tuning the frequency of sampling from relaxed policies and the parameter governing the strength of entropy regularisation, we prove that the regret, for both learning algorithms, is of the order $\mathcal{O}(\sqrt{N}) $ (up to a logarithmic factor) over $N$ episodes, matching the best known result from the literature.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

The AI Revolution: Opportunities and Challenges for the Finance Sector

This report examines Artificial Intelligence (AI) in the financial sector, outlining its potential to revolutionise the industry and identify its challenges. It underscores the criticality of a well-rounded understanding of AI, its capabilities, and its implications to effectively leverage its potential while mitigating associated risks. The potential of AI potential extends from augmenting existing operations to paving the way for novel applications in the finance sector. The application of AI in the financial sector is transforming the industry. Its use spans areas from customer service enhancements, fraud detection, and risk management to credit assessments and high-frequency trading. However, along with these benefits, AI also presents several challenges. These include issues related to transparency, interpretability, fairness, accountability, and trustworthiness. The use of AI in the financial sector further raises critical questions about data privacy and security. A further issue identified in this report is the systemic risk that AI can introduce to the financial sector. Being prone to errors, AI can exacerbate existing systemic risks, potentially leading to financial crises. Regulation is crucial to harnessing the benefits of AI while mitigating its potential risks. Despite the global recognition of this need, there remains a lack of clear guidelines or legislation for AI use in finance. This report discusses key principles that could guide the formation of effective AI regulation in the financial sector, including the need for a risk-based approach, the inclusion of ethical considerations, and the importance of maintaining a balance between innovation and consumer protection. The report provides recommendations for academia, the finance industry, and regulators.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2023

Insurance pricing on price comparison websites via reinforcement learning

The emergence of price comparison websites (PCWs) has presented insurers with unique challenges in formulating effective pricing strategies. Operating on PCWs requires insurers to strike a delicate balance between competitive premiums and profitability, amidst obstacles such as low historical conversion rates, limited visibility of competitors' actions, and a dynamic market environment. In addition to this, the capital intensive nature of the business means pricing below the risk levels of customers can result in solvency issues for the insurer. To address these challenges, this paper introduces reinforcement learning (RL) framework that learns the optimal pricing policy by integrating model-based and model-free methods. The model-based component is used to train agents in an offline setting, avoiding cold-start issues, while model-free algorithms are then employed in a contextual bandit (CB) manner to dynamically update the pricing policy to maximise the expected revenue. This facilitates quick adaptation to evolving market dynamics and enhances algorithm efficiency and decision interpretability. The paper also highlights the importance of evaluating pricing policies using an offline dataset in a consistent fashion and demonstrates the superiority of the proposed methodology over existing off-the-shelf RL/CB approaches. We validate our methodology using synthetic data, generated to reflect private commercially available data within real-world insurers, and compare against 6 other benchmark approaches. Our hybrid agent outperforms these benchmarks in terms of sample efficiency and cumulative reward with the exception of an agent that has access to perfect market information which would not be available in a real-world set-up.

q-fin.PR↗

arXiv2022

A Framework for Auditable Synthetic Data Generation

Synthetic data has gained significant momentum thanks to sophisticated machine learning tools that enable the synthesis of high-dimensional datasets. However, many generation techniques do not give the data controller control over what statistical patterns are captured, leading to concerns over privacy protection. While synthetic records are not linked to a particular real-world individual, they can reveal information about users indirectly which may be unacceptable for data owners. There is thus a need to empirically verify the privacy of synthetic data -- a particularly challenging task in high-dimensional data. In this paper we present a general framework for synthetic data generation that gives data controllers full control over which statistical properties the synthetic data ought to preserve, what exact information loss is acceptable, and how to quantify it. The benefits of the approach are that (1) one can generate synthetic data that results in high utility for a given task, while (2) empirically validating that only statistics considered safe by the data curator are used to generate the data. We thus show the potential for synthetic data to be an effective means of releasing confidential data safely, while retaining useful information for analysts.

cs.CR↗

arXiv2022

TAPAS: a Toolbox for Adversarial Privacy Auditing of Synthetic Data

Personal data collected at scale promises to improve decision-making and accelerate innovation. However, sharing and using such data raises serious privacy concerns. A promising solution is to produce synthetic data, artificial records to share instead of real data. Since synthetic records are not linked to real persons, this intuitively prevents classical re-identification attacks. However, this is insufficient to protect privacy. We here present TAPAS, a toolbox of attacks to evaluate synthetic data privacy under a wide range of scenarios. These attacks include generalizations of prior works and novel attacks. We also introduce a general framework for reasoning about privacy threats to synthetic data and showcase TAPAS on several examples.

cs.CR↗

arXiv2022

Convergence of Policy Gradient for Entropy Regularized MDPs with Neural Network Approximation in the Mean-Field Regime

We study the global convergence of policy gradient for infinite-horizon, continuous state and action space, and entropy-regularized Markov decision processes (MDPs). We consider a softmax policy with (one-hidden layer) neural network approximation in a mean-field regime. Additional entropic regularization in the associated mean-field probability measure is added, and the corresponding gradient flow is studied in the 2-Wasserstein metric. We show that the objective function is increasing along the gradient flow. Further, we prove that if the regularization in terms of the mean-field measure is sufficient, the gradient flow converges exponentially fast to the unique stationary solution, which is the unique maximizer of the regularized MDP objective. Lastly, we study the sensitivity of the value function along the gradient flow with respect to regularization parameters and the initial condition. Our results rely on the careful analysis of the non-linear Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov equation and extend the pioneering work of Mei et al. 2020 and Agarwal et al. 2020, which quantify the global convergence rate of policy gradient for entropy-regularized MDPs in the tabular setting.

math.OC↗

arXiv2022

Synthetic Data -- what, why and how?

This explainer document aims to provide an overview of the current state of the rapidly expanding work on synthetic data technologies, with a particular focus on privacy. The article is intended for a non-technical audience, though some formal definitions have been given to provide clarity to specialists. This article is intended to enable the reader to quickly become familiar with the notion of synthetic data, as well as understand some of the subtle intricacies that come with it. We do believe that synthetic data is a very useful tool, and our hope is that this report highlights that, while drawing attention to nuances that can easily be overlooked in its deployment.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Unbiased deep solvers for linear parametric PDEs

We develop several deep learning algorithms for approximating families of parametric PDE solutions. The proposed algorithms approximate solutions together with their gradients, which in the context of mathematical finance means that the derivative prices and hedging strategies are computed simulatenously. Having approximated the gradient of the solution one can combine it with a Monte-Carlo simulation to remove the bias in the deep network approximation of the PDE solution (derivative price). This is achieved by leveraging the Martingale Representation Theorem and combining the Monte Carlo simulation with the neural network. The resulting algorithm is robust with respect to quality of the neural network approximation and consequently can be used as a black-box in case only limited a priori information about the underlying problem is available. We believe this is important as neural network based algorithms often require fair amount of tuning to produce satisfactory results. The methods are empirically shown to work for high-dimensional problems (e.g. 100 dimensions). We provide diagnostics that shed light on appropriate network architectures.

q-fin.CP↗

arXiv2021

Exploration-exploitation trade-off for continuous-time episodic reinforcement learning with linear-convex models

We develop a probabilistic framework for analysing model-based reinforcement learning in the episodic setting. We then apply it to study finite-time horizon stochastic control problems with linear dynamics but unknown coefficients and convex, but possibly irregular, objective function. Using probabilistic representations, we study regularity of the associated cost functions and establish precise estimates for the performance gap between applying optimal feedback control derived from estimated and true model parameters. We identify conditions under which this performance gap is quadratic, improving the linear performance gap in recent work [X. Guo, A. Hu, and Y. Zhang, arXiv preprint, arXiv:2104.09311, (2021)], which matches the results obtained for stochastic linear-quadratic problems. Next, we propose a phase-based learning algorithm for which we show how to optimise exploration-exploitation trade-off and achieve sublinear regrets in high probability and expectation. When assumptions needed for the quadratic performance gap hold, the algorithm achieves an order $\mathcal{O}(\sqrt{N} \ln N)$ high probability regret, in the general case, and an order $\mathcal{O}((\ln N)^2)$ expected regret, in self-exploration case, over $N$ episodes, matching the best possible results from the literature. The analysis requires novel concentration inequalities for correlated continuous-time observations, which we derive.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Identifiability in inverse reinforcement learning

Inverse reinforcement learning attempts to reconstruct the reward function in a Markov decision problem, using observations of agent actions. As already observed in Russell [1998] the problem is ill-posed, and the reward function is not identifiable, even under the presence of perfect information about optimal behavior. We provide a resolution to this non-identifiability for problems with entropy regularization. For a given environment, we fully characterize the reward functions leading to a given policy and demonstrate that, given demonstrations of actions for the same reward under two distinct discount factors, or under sufficiently different environments, the unobserved reward can be recovered up to a constant. We also give general necessary and sufficient conditions for reconstruction of time-homogeneous rewards on finite horizons, and for action-independent rewards, generalizing recent results of Kim et al. [2021] and Fu et al. [2018].

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Sig-Wasserstein GANs for Time Series Generation

Synthetic data is an emerging technology that can significantly accelerate the development and deployment of AI machine learning pipelines. In this work, we develop high-fidelity time-series generators, the SigWGAN, by combining continuous-time stochastic models with the newly proposed signature $W_1$ metric. The former are the Logsig-RNN models based on the stochastic differential equations, whereas the latter originates from the universal and principled mathematical features to characterize the measure induced by time series. SigWGAN allows turning computationally challenging GAN min-max problem into supervised learning while generating high fidelity samples. We validate the proposed model on both synthetic data generated by popular quantitative risk models and empirical financial data. Codes are available at https://github.com/SigCGANs/Sig-Wasserstein-GANs.git.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Black-box model risk in finance

Machine learning models are increasingly used in a wide variety of financial settings. The difficulty of understanding the inner workings of these systems, combined with their wide applicability, has the potential to lead to significant new risks for users; these risks need to be understood and quantified. In this sub-chapter, we will focus on a well studied application of machine learning techniques, to pricing and hedging of financial options. Our aim will be to highlight the various sources of risk that the introduction of machine learning emphasises or de-emphasises, and the possible risk mitigation and management strategies that are available.

q-fin.CP↗

arXiv2020

Mean-Field Langevin Dynamics and Energy Landscape of Neural Networks

Our work is motivated by a desire to study the theoretical underpinning for the convergence of stochastic gradient type algorithms widely used for non-convex learning tasks such as training of neural networks. The key insight, already observed in the works of Mei, Montanari and Nguyen (2018), Chizat and Bach (2018) as well as Rotskoff and Vanden-Eijnden (2018), is that a certain class of the finite-dimensional non-convex problems becomes convex when lifted to infinite-dimensional space of measures. We leverage this observation and show that the corresponding energy functional defined on the space of probability measures has a unique minimiser which can be characterised by a first-order condition using the notion of linear functional derivative. Next, we study the corresponding gradient flow structure in 2-Wasserstein metric, which we call Mean-Field Langevin Dynamics (MFLD), and show that the flow of marginal laws induced by the gradient flow converges to a stationary distribution, which is exactly the minimiser of the energy functional. We observe that this convergence is exponential under conditions that are satisfied for highly regularised learning tasks. Our proof of convergence to stationary probability measure is novel and it relies on a generalisation of LaSalle's invariance principle combined with HWI inequality. Importantly, we assume neither that interaction potential of MFLD is of convolution type nor that it has any particular symmetric structure. Furthermore, we allow for the general convex objective function, unlike, most papers in the literature that focus on quadratic loss. Finally, we show that the error between finite-dimensional optimisation problem and its infinite-dimensional limit is of order one over the number of parameters.

math.PR↗

arXiv2020

Solving path dependent PDEs with LSTM networks and path signatures

Using a combination of recurrent neural networks and signature methods from the rough paths theory we design efficient algorithms for solving parametric families of path dependent partial differential equations (PPDEs) that arise in pricing and hedging of path-dependent derivatives or from use of non-Markovian model, such as rough volatility models in Jacquier and Oumgari, 2019. The solutions of PPDEs are functions of time, a continuous path (the asset price history) and model parameters. As the domain of the solution is infinite dimensional many recently developed deep learning techniques for solving PDEs do not apply. Similarly as in Vidales et al. 2018, we identify the objective function used to learn the PPDE by using martingale representation theorem. As a result we can de-bias and provide confidence intervals for then neural network-based algorithm. We validate our algorithm using classical models for pricing lookback and auto-callable options and report errors for approximating both prices and hedging strategies.

q-fin.CP↗

arXiv2020

McKean-Vlasov SDEs under Measure Dependent Lyapunov Conditions

We prove the existence of weak solutions to McKean-Vlasov SDEs defined on a domain $D \subseteq \mathbb{R}^d$ with continuous and unbounded coefficients that satisfy Lyapunov type conditions, where the Lyapunov function may depend on measure. We propose a new type of {\em integrated} Lyapunov condition, where the inequality is only required to hold when integrated against the measure on which the Lyapunov function depends , and we show that this is sufficient for the existence of weak solutions to McKean-Vlasov SDEs defined on $D$. The main tool used in the proofs is the concept of a measure derivative due to Lions. We prove results on uniqueness under weaker assumptions than that of global Lipschitz continuity of the coefficients.

math.PR↗

arXiv2020

Robust pricing and hedging via neural SDEs

Mathematical modelling is ubiquitous in the financial industry and drives key decision processes. Any given model provides only a crude approximation to reality and the risk of using an inadequate model is hard to detect and quantify. By contrast, modern data science techniques are opening the door to more robust and data-driven model selection mechanisms. However, most machine learning models are "black-boxes" as individual parameters do not have meaningful interpretation. The aim of this paper is to combine the above approaches achieving the best of both worlds. Combining neural networks with risk models based on classical stochastic differential equations (SDEs), we find robust bounds for prices of derivatives and the corresponding hedging strategies while incorporating relevant market data. The resulting model called neural SDE is an instantiation of generative models and is closely linked with the theory of causal optimal transport. Neural SDEs allow consistent calibration under both the risk-neutral and the real-world measures. Thus the model can be used to simulate market scenarios needed for assessing risk profiles and hedging strategies. We develop and analyse novel algorithms needed for efficient use of neural SDEs. We validate our approach with numerical experiments using both local and stochastic volatility models.

q-fin.MF↗

arXiv2020

Sig-SDEs model for quantitative finance

Mathematical models, calibrated to data, have become ubiquitous to make key decision processes in modern quantitative finance. In this work, we propose a novel framework for data-driven model selection by integrating a classical quantitative setup with a generative modelling approach. Leveraging the properties of the signature, a well-known path-transform from stochastic analysis that recently emerged as leading machine learning technology for learning time-series data, we develop the Sig-SDE model. Sig-SDE provides a new perspective on neural SDEs and can be calibrated to exotic financial products that depend, in a non-linear way, on the whole trajectory of asset prices. Furthermore, we our approach enables to consistently calibrate under the pricing measure $\mathbb Q$ and real-world measure $\mathbb P$. Finally, we demonstrate the ability of Sig-SDE to simulate future possible market scenarios needed for computing risk profiles or hedging strategies. Importantly, this new model is underpinned by rigorous mathematical analysis, that under appropriate conditions provides theoretical guarantees for convergence of the presented algorithms.

q-fin.CP↗